Evaluating the Final Four games on anything but basketball

For the first time since I can't remember, I won't be able to watch the Final Four games tonight. Yes, devastation. Luckily, there is a way of figuring out which teams will meet in the Championship game without even catching a whiff of basketball.

Kentucky vs. Louisville
Mascot
Kentucky's mascot is among the most generic in all of sports, right alongside bulldog; that being said, Louisville's mascot is the Cardinal. The Cardinal is a non-predatory bird, and while it looks cool and is the state bird of Ohio, that's about all it has going. Sorry, Cardy, the Wildcat takes round one.

Roster names
Pretty easy call on this one. Junior guard Twany Beckham aside, UK's roster is a veritable who's-who of average basketball player names. Darius Miller. Terence Jones. Anthony Davis. Sam Malone. Coach Cal is an unbelievable recruiter, but he's got to work on getting his name-game up. On the other hand, Louisville has two guys with the last name Smith on its roster and still manages to be more exciting. Whether its freshman Angel Nunez (anybody named Angel is automatically getting my attention) who doesn't play at all or sophomore Gorgui Dieng (same goes for anybody named Gorgui--or Dieng, for that matter) who starts for the Cardinals, Louisville has cool names on lockdown. The 'Ville has some guy named Stephan Van Treese on its roster. That dude sounds like he should be the son of a Duke, but is disappointingly just from Indianapolis. Still, his name's getting the job done. Even one of Louisville's more boring names, Kyle Kuric, rolls off the tongue nicely due to its alliteration. Cards even things up.

Most Interesting Man test
This test is inspired by the Dos Equis commercials featuring the "Most Interesting Man in the World". Which team has a guy who might speak French in Russian? Or maybe he could have inside jokes with total strangers? Basically, who would I want to hang out with most? And the answer to this one goes to the the resident winner of the name game as well--Gorgui Dieng. While in Louisville last weekend I spent time hanging out with a guy from Tanzania who was friends with the people I was visiting. He was funny, always in a good mood and ready to mix it up with whoever, and told some absolutely fascinating stories. Gorgui may not party quite as hardy as anybody in Lexington, but I'm thinking he'd be way more interesting to listen to between the weekends, telling me stories about his time in Senegal and what he thinks of the States. That definitely sounds better than talking to Anthony Davis about how crazy it was at this one AAU Tournament he played at when he was 15. Edge, Louisville.

Most Interesting Coach test
Same as before, but with the men running the benches for both teams. Unfortunately, I know very little nothing about either team's coaches beyond the leading men, so there are only two candidates I could choose from in this one. And that seems like a pretty easy call. Coach Cal may be deplorable, but is there any doubt he'd be a fun to hang with? It is clear as day from interviews that his players like him, and he's doing something right in order to fill his roster with future NBA-ers year after year. I'm guessing it's got to do with that personality. Coach Pitino on the other hand? Larger than life guy, for sure. Ultra-successful college coach, yes. But he still strikes me as very meh. The only thing I'd want to talk about is what a conversation Ricky probably wouldn't be keen on having.

Who is more worth rooting for?
Well, neither team. It's Kentucky and Louisville. The only way to make this worse would be to replace one of the teams with North Carolina and bring Tyler Hansbrough back to the Tar Heels' roster. But Louisville has several seniors and guys who aren't going to be making money playing professional basketball in the U.S., and other guys who might make the money, but still won't be playing. Set aside the fact that Kentucky is a farm team for the pros and how much that sucks in general. Most of the guys playing on that team will have plenty more shots on glory when they are in the pros. This is just a stop for them. No matter how much they really care about this Championship and no matter what happens over the next three days, the future is bright for them. For Kyle Kuric and Peyton Siva? The future (as far as basketball is concerned) is the next three days. So this has to the to the Cardinals.

For anybody not able to keep track, Louisville pulled off the upset, 3-2. Despite all the indications, opinions and talent to the contrary, here is some hard evidence that the Cardinals have a chance. And hey, even if Louisville does get thrashed tonight, at least Gorgui Dieng will have given it some pride: MVP of this column.

Ohio State vs. Kansas
Mascot
If there is a mascot that Ohio State would actually beat, it is escaping me. Seriously, Ohio State are the Buckeyes. And not even the tree. The seed on the tree that peanut buttery snacks are modeled after. Even if it was the tree, the Buckeye is not an especially impressive angiosperm. Were they the Ohio State Redwoods, then maybe we're talking. But Buckeye? Let alone the fact that Kansas' mascot is a mythical bird. This is not close. Point KU.

Roster names
Mostly boring on both sides. All of Kansas' cool is coming from guys that don't see the floor: Naadir Tharpe, Niko Roberts, Merv Lindsay (Merv!). The Jayhawks do have two guards with decent names in Tyshawn Taylor (once again, on the strength of alliteration) and Elijah Johnson (on the strength of Elijah), but KU has clearly left this one wide open. Ohio State doesn't have much to shout about in the category either, however. It is always a good thing to have a Weatherspoon on the roster, and J.D. Weatherspoon proudly sports the scarlet and grey from the sidelines. So Ohio State has that going for it, which is nice. Throw in LaQuinton Ross and Evan Ravenel, and the name game is going down to the wire. The way I see it, it comes down to Merv Lindsay and Evan Ravenel. And while Merv has the advantage of having a fake first name for a first name and a real first name for a last name, I think only Gorgui Dieng has a shot at beating Evan Ravenel for full-name glory. Kudos to Ravvy's parents for having the guts to name him Evan. That could have gone south quickly with so many e's, a's and v's in such a short span of syllables. But it hasn't. Point Buckeyes.

Most Interesting Man test
Thomas Robinson is an incredible player with an incredible story. He has put his younger sister before himself at all times, and should be commended for that. But in spite of that and in spite of my disdain for him, I don't think there's any choice other than Jared Sullinger for Most Interesting Man in this game. Sully's larger-than-life personality has been on display since his freshman year. It reached a nationwide audience when we saw him singing "Party in the USA" on ESPN, but it is there for all to see in the middle of games as well. Sullinger puts his tongue out and cheers and nods when good things are happening for his team. But this year, the other side of Sullinger was seen much more frequently. He was pouting when things weren't going well. He quit on his team because he allowed things he couldn't control get the better of him a couple times. Right now, however, Sullinger appears to have his swag back in full force. And even though he annoys me to watch on TV, I have no doubt he'd be a blast to be around in person. Buckeyes, 2-1.

Most Interesting Coach test
Thad Matta's name is Thad Matta, and that is awesome. Thad also is kinda cool because he's not like any of the other mega-successful coaches of big programs in the country--Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Bo Ryan, John Calipari, Billy Donovan, Jim Boeheim, etc. All those guys are totally composed in their interviews. Thad doesn't have that polished feel about him. He seems much more genuine in his comments because of that. That being said, he coached at Xavier, which pretty much ends this argument. Bill Self is another one of those boring, polished automatons, but he hasn't been at Xavier. Sorry for that Ocean's 12-esque, buildup and anti-climax, but I needed to write something. Edge, Kansas.

Who is more worth rooting for?
The T-Rob story speaks for itself. That guy is pretty well worth rooting for, as are the other veterans on his team, but Ohio State has some worthiness of its own. The Buckeyes are coming off a year in which they were far and away the best team in the country, but suffered in the Elite Eight due to a poor shooting game. What's more, that loss came at the hands of a freshman-laden Kentucky team. This year's UK team is totally different, but I would imagine the leftover Buckeyes would still love a shot at returning the favor. Jared Sullinger has said he came back this year because of the sting of last year. Whether or not you like Sully (and I don't), that's what college basketball is all about. And Kansas' last national championship came in 2007, while OSU hasn't cut down the Nets since 1960. I'd say that means point, Bucks.

Finaly tally comes to Ohio State 3, Kansas 2. The scientific approach delivered by Ken Pomeroy says it will be Kentucky-Ohio State. The non-scientific but educated consensus from the ESPN pundits says we're getting Kentucky-Kansas. And this non-scientific and not-educated is pimping a Louisville-Ohio State final two. I guess that adds up to a fun night of basketball.

No need for teams in the Hunger Games

I finally got around to seeing the Hunger Games today, and came out the other side thoroughly pleased. An unnecessary District 11 riot aside, the movie was really good. But before getting too into those thoughts, a couple generals ones first.

One thing I haven't had the chance to do much of since going to college is see movies at the theaters. A combination of the fact that for the most part I was content waiting to see movies when they came out on Netflix and the fact that, believe it or not, there is almost always something to do at school that sounds just as fun as going to the cinema, I just haven't been to the actual theaters much lately. But wow, is it fun to go. I love watching movies at anytime, but there is nothing quite like the seats rumbling beneath you when the bass kicks in on the speakers that are playing way too loud while you watch that gigantic screen.

And this brings us back to the Hunger Games, which took full advantage of the opportunities afforded by a movie theater. We walked in during the first trailer, which was for some horror flick called House at the End of the Street. This movie would have blown by pretty quickly, but it happens to star Jennifer Lawrence, and the trailer involved some time with her putzing around in a tank top, which will always work for me. I don't know the last horror movie I watched, but #HATES (as was thrown together at the end of the trailer) just might be the next one. I love Jennifer Lawrence. The rest of them were exciting ones as well: The Avengers, Snow White and the Huntsman (which has a chance to be good, but has one serious flaw: Kristen Stewart is not gonna pass as fairer than Charlize Theron anytime soon), G.I. Joe: Retaliation (starring The Rock!), What to Expect When You're Expecting (looked pretty funny, but then again so do most comedy trailers) and a 30-second teaser bit for the Twilight Breaking Dawn part 2 (more on that later).

Then the movie started. I won't bore anyone with my every thought on the film, but I really enjoyed it. I loved the way the cameras were used in that out-of-control sort of way, especially during the time in District 12. It made the movie feel that much more intimate, which was good for a movie that was based on a first-person narrated book. Speaking of the narration, the Katniss in this movie if probably a better version of the Katniss in the book. While Katty seems like a great gal in the books, she is also prone to infuriating fits of stupidity. She just doesn't make very good decisions and never seems to read people the right way. Not having been a teenage girl in my time, it was at times brutal to read what was going on in Katniss' head, because it just wasn't very smart stuff, coming from an otherwise intelligent individual. But making the movie from a third-perspective was a great move, because all that pent up emotion was left in the capable hands of Lawrence. And I gotta say, Jenny killed it. Her wandering eyes in scenes with Peeta and her scenes with both Primrose and Rue were excellent. I got all the Katniss I needed without getting any of the Katniss I didn't want. And that all involved plenty of Jennifer Lawrence. And any review of this movie should not happen without mentioning that Stanley Tucci, Elizabeth Banks and Lenny Kravitz were absolutely perfect as Caesar Flickerman, Effie Trinket and Cinna, respectively. Awesome.

The other big bonus from this film was my major concern coming in. Leading up to the movie, I saw Facebook and Twitter updates about people who had tickets for the movie, and were pumped up about it. At the end of many of these people's updates was the hashtagged phrase #teampeeta. Having read the Hunger Games trilogy, I understood the reference. During the height of the Twilight Saga's reign, there were people proclaiming that they were on #teamedward or #teamjacob, the two young men chiefly involved in Bella's life. Now I have not read the Twilight books, so I don't know if Jacob was actually a love option for Bella or if he was actually worth rooting for in that love triangle, but I assume he was, because many people boasted about their #teamjacob-ness. And that is what upset me. Sure, there are two dudes heavily involved in Katniss' life: Gale and Peeta. She has those confusing teenage-y feelings about both dudes. Of course, the feelings are nonsense, but she has them. But what bothers me is the thought that anyone might proclaim to be a part of #teamgale. Seriously? Gale is hardly even involved in the first book! And in the second and third when he plays a bigger role, he just shows that the disgruntled, moany 18-year-old who can't get over a 16-year-old girl who's a bigger bad-ass than he is. All Gale does is whine about the Capitol and he votes to have a Hunger Games of the Capitol's children (if you've only seen the movie or read the first book, sorry. But this isn't giving much away, you'll get there). How could anyone be on that dude's team?

No thanks, I'll take Peeta, the guy who does nothing but good, says all the right things, has everything awful happen to him in the world but still maintains some sense of himself (a self that is better than everybody else in the supremely f-ed up world Suzanne Collins created). That was my concern. That this movie was going to be portrayed as some Twilight love triangle. That's not what it is. Peeta is always the shockingly better option. Was there really anybody on #teamgale going in? Has anybody who's seen the movie decided to stay on that bandwagon? I hope not.

Why Kentucky-Louisville can do nothing but harm

Over the weekend I visited some friends in Louisville, and it was my first time staying more than a day in the great state of Kentucky. On Friday night, we headed out to a bar and caught the end of the North Carolina-Ohio Sweet 16 game, which was almost the coolest thing ever. Really, though, we were heading out to catch the Kentucky-Indiana game, a game that I didn't particularly care about, and my friends sort of cared about because now they live in Kentucky. We got to Molly Malone's and it took all of about four seconds to realize that we were not going to be sitting down at any point to watch the game there. But that was fine, as I've been to a Dayton-Xavier game in a Dayton bar, and if you don't arrive early enough, you'll be standing all game long as well.

That was where the similarities and familiarities about watching basketball stopped. What followed was unlike anything I've seen before. Every possession, whether it was a turnover, missed shot, made shot, three-pointer, dunk or timeout, was met with a groan or a cheer. When Cody Zeller scored, the bar groaned. When Cody Zeller missed a shot and it was rebounded by Kentucky, the entire bar erupted. If Christian Watford missed a shot and IU grabbed an offensive rebound, a collective groan was guaranteed. When Anthony Davis scored, a bar-wide cheer was assured. Even if a timeout was forced or called after a loose ball, the crowd at Molly Malone's went berserk one way or another. It was unbelievable. So many things that really didn't matter in the grand scheme of the game were met with despair or joy. Hundreds and hundreds of times over, this process continued.

I'm a huge basketball fan. I would say I care about my teams as much as anybody else I've met. But it wasn't even close the amount these people seemed to have invested in their Wildcats. At least in the city of Louisville, the same seemed to go for the Cardinals. This is why I'm concerned about the loss of life possibilities that could result from Louisville and Kentucky's Final Four matchup this weekend. I don't actually see how violence can be avoided. We've all heard about the Dodgers fan being beaten into a coma and two San Francisco 49ers fans being shot after a 49ers-Raiders game. Well, from what I could tell this weekend, the people in Kentucky are at least as insane as the nutjobs involved in those incidents. And this is a Final Four game, compared to a regular season and a preseason game (as in, it's a little bit more important).

Whatever the result of the game, while I had fun in Louisville over the weekend, I'm thinking I'll be glad not to be back in the coming one.

Sweet 16 Friday Primer

While yesterday's picks for the games resulted in just s 2-2 performance (Syracuse and Ohio State being the ones I got correct), I will also pat myself on the back for correctly prescribing the formula for Louisville to win. The Cardinals got their defense on and played a game in the 50s (in Michigan State's case, the 40s), and turned in an impressive win. Kudos to Florida for totally proving me wrong. Billy Donovan's crew dominated Marquette in the second half, outplaying and out-hustling them. Some better shooting from Marquette would have made that game closer down the stretch, but I don't think the result would have been different. Florida was the better team Thursday night. And in a best of one series, sometimes being on your game on a given night is what matters most.

Xavier vs. Baylor, 7:15 p.m.
On paper this looks like an easy win for Baylor. Baylor is the superior team physically and is still waiting on a good game in the tournament from its best player, Perry Jones III. But you can never really count Xavier out, can you? Four Sweet 16s in the past five years. It makes me sick to hear about it, because this year Xavier shouldn't have even been in the tournament. A Matt Kavanaugh layup would have done the trick. But Xavier survived that game, and then survived Notre Dame and beat Lehigh. I do not like giving praise to the Musketeers, but somehow, they get into this type of situation year after year. And Baylor is a soft, vulnerable team. Xavier may not be likable, but they are definitely not soft. Gangsta and "zippin' 'em up" jokes aside, this is a tough team. And they have a guy who lives for the moment in Holloway. If the Bears come out the least bit lackadaisical, you can bet that Xavier will jump all over them, and that could all there is to this game. One would hope, however, that a team of college basketball players can find motivation to play hard in a Sweet 16 game, regardless of its opponent. I think Baylor does that, and we're finally done with Holloway in college basketball.

Ohio vs. North Carolina, 7:47 p.m.
In any given year of college basketball, if Ohio University were playing North Carolina in one of the early season tournaments held at a neutral site, like the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, most everyone would look at the names of the teams, think, "that's going to be a blowout," and probably not watch the game. Just because this is a Sweet 16 game does not mean it should be approached any differently. To get here Ohio has done some great things, and its game against South Florida in the third round was an extremely fun one to watch, but this is North Carolina. Kendall Marshall or not, they are superior to the Bobcats in every way. They can put out a front line of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, James Michael McAdoo and Harrison Barnes. How exactly is OU going to compete with that? They aren't. It's been a great ride for OU, but don't feel bad if you end up changing the channel or starting your Friday night pregame early in lieu of finishing this game.

Indiana vs. Kentucky, 9:45 p.m.
If the three games listed so far go the right way, March 23, 2012 will be the greatest NCAA Tournament night of my life in which a team I was rooting for didn't win the National Championship. Unfortunately, it is much more likely that Kentucky, North Carolina and Xavier will all win than it is that they will all lose. Of course, the pundits have reminded us a couple hundred thousand times that Indiana is responsible for Kentucky's sole loss this season. So sure, perhaps that will give IU some confidence heading into the game. But let's dissect how likely a repeat is for the Hoosiers. First off, that game was a home game for Indiana. This will be played on a neutral court. For anyone who will be watching his/her first basketball game tonight, that makes more than a small difference. In addition, it was a game in which Indiana possessed a hefty lead, but saw it vanish in no time when Kentucky flexed its muscle in the second half. And finally, it took a buzzer-beater from beyond the arc to secure the victory. Basically, it was the type of thing that only happens a couple times a season for a team, and it was only able to happen because Indiana had played a great game in its home gym on that day. To me, this has 15-20 point UK win written all over it. Then again, there hasn't been a single buzzer-beater all tournament long, so maybe...

North Carolina State vs. Kansas, 10:17 p.m.
This looks like the most intriguing matchup of the night. NC State has been playing excellent basketball, mainly through its big men, since the ACC Tournament. If not for a missed call on an offensive foul, the Wolfpack would have played for the ACC title, and had a great shot at beating Florida State. Since then, they've been dominant in the NCAA Tournament. They dispatched a very good San Diego State easily by executing a good game plan to perfection. But that was by exploiting a size advantage against the Aztecs. In the third round, NC State proved the win was no fluke by beating Georgetown and Henry Sims, a pretty good big man in his own right. Now, things only get tougher. The NC State front line will have to deal with Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey of Kansas, perhaps the best duo in the country (Zeller and Henson from UNC would be the other option). Kansas is coming off a lackluster performance against Purdue, but the Jayhawks survived Robbie Hummel's last stand. If Tyshawn Taylor and Robinson can get back on track and deliver typically strong games in the Sweet 16, my gut says Kansas is too good for NC State. But if they're a bit underwhelming again? We'll have an 11 seed in the Elite Eight for the second straight year.

Sweet 16 Thursday Primer

Gone already are the days in which we are treated to deciding between watching CBS, TNT, TruTV and TBS because four basketball games are playing all at once. Today we get just four games total. Lucky for the people who will make the decision to keep watching, they should be some pretty good games.

Wisconsin vs. Syracuse, 7:15 p.m.
Does anyone have a handle on what's going to happen in this game? There's no way to know which version of either of these teams is going to show up tonight. Wisconsin was the team that ratings systems like Kenpom and Sagarin loved to love, but basketball fans loved to hate all season. They were rated highly, but in their play we saw a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team. But in two games in the NCAA Tournament, the Badgers have looked more the former than the latter. They thrashed a good Montana team in the first round, and then shut down Vanderbilt's best players (and therefore offense) to squash the Commodores. Now they get Syracuse, a team that is certainly better than them. But Syracuse has looked like two completely different teams in the tournament. In the first round against UNC-Asheville, the Orange were bad, playing too fast like they were panicked, and didn't shoot well on top of it. In the third round against Kansas State, they got back to basics, and Fab Melo or not, looked like the well-balanced, deep team that showed up for the entire regular season.
So which teams will show up? I think the Syracuse that played against Kansas State will be the one we see tonight. And while Wisconsin has long been the best team in the country in turning games ugly, I think even if this game goes that way, Syracuse's athleticism and depth will carry it to triumph in the end. I see the Orange build an eight to ten point lead, and then Wisconsin can never quite close that gap.

Louisville at Michigan State, 7:47 p.m.
Louisville and Michigan State come into this game as two of the hottest teams in the country; both won their conference tournament championships and have obviously followed that up by taking care of business with two wins to get the Sweet 16. Now they will run into each other. On paper to me, this one looks relatively easy. Michigan State matches up much better with Louisville than the other way around. They have the big men to go toe-to-toe with the Cardinals' bigs, and Keith Appling is just as good (probably better) than Peyton Siva, who has been a big source of offense for Louisville recently. That doesn't even take Draymond Green into account. Michigan State's point-power forward is one of the toughest matchups in the country, and Louisville would appear to be poorly suited to guard him; I'm curious to see who is going to have to take the assignment. This seems like the type of thing that could turn into a situation like the Thunder playing the Mavericks in last year's NBA Playoffs, and the Thunder experimenting with what seemed like its entire roster to find someone to guard Dirk Nowitzki. Long story short--none of them worked. The Mavs won. I think the same will happen for the Spartans. Louisville's best chance lies in turning this game into a grinder in the 50s, and having its team defense dictate what happens all game long.

Cincinnati vs. Ohio State
Without question the most anticipated game on Thursday, Cincy-OSU presents a very interesting matchup. Even beyond the mutual hatred between the programs, this looks interesting. Jared Sullinger has not been as dominant as expected this season, and when he has had poor or frustrating games, he has gotten pouty and quit all year. It has been special to watch, because when that happens, Ohio State usually loses. If UC is going to make it to the Elite Eight, that is its most likely route--through a down-in-the-dumps Sully. Luckily for the Bearcats, Yancy Gates is playing unbelievably well and has the size and skills to perhaps piss Sullinger off enough. If "Sulkinger" comes into play, Ohio State is going to need William Buford to start playing well again. The senior has been a bit of a disappointment at times this year. He is an extremely talented scorer, but has poor shooting days way too often. Ohio State is going to need the version of him that hit the game-winner against Michigan State in the regular season's final game. If the Buckeyes get that, they're going to be tough to beat period, let alone in this game.

Florida vs. Marquette
Is Florida actually a Sweet 16 team? At one point, the Gators almost cracked the top ten in the AP Rankings this season. Then, they lost several games near the end of the season and looked really vulnerable. Then, they destroyed Virginia in the second round of the tournament. In the third round, they were lucky enough to play Norfolk State, which deserves credit for outplaying Missouri, but it was very unlikely that level of play would show up again. Florida dominated again, and here we are. Marquette, on the other hand, looks every bit the part of a Final Four-capable team. The Golden Eagles are playing hard, have a coach that has changed the culture there and has every player buying into giving maximum effort, and they possess two absolute studs in Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom. The fact that I've basically written Florida off in this paragraph, however, makes this feel like a trap game. And given my track record in 2012 for picking tournament games (I have seven of 16 Sweet 16 teams correct in my bracket, the worst I can ever remember doing), maybe my word is not worth taking. But I love the way that Marquette plays, and think Florida has been fortunate to get here. I believe the Gators will be overwhelmed in the nightcap.

Why the Sweet 16 is still worth watching

Today my dad called out to from another room and said, "Isn't this about as bad a Sweet 16 as we could have? Between North Carolina, Kentucky and Xavier all making it, and no mid-majors that have a chance to do anything." He then thought for a moment before adding, "I guess that means I won't have to spend time watching the games."

And while my dad is right, this is a disastrous Sweet 16 for Dayton and Duke fans (exacerbated by the fact that it was Duke's loss to Lehigh in the the Round of 64 that in theory made it easier on Xavier to make the Sweet 16). But when I have the chance, I'll be catching games this Thursday through Sunday, because there are some awesome ones still available. Sorry to all the Bobcat fans out there, but I don't see North Carolina-Ohio as one of them. OU making it to the Sweet 16 is probably the best story of the tournament, but the size of North Carolina looks like something it will be just about impossible for the Bobcats to overcome. A 15-30 type shooting day from the three point line might make a difference, but otherwise, I'd say the ride will be over in Athens. How about NC State vs. Kansas though? North Carolina State has been one of the pleasures to watch in the tournament's first four days, looking like it is on a mission. The Wolfpack big men have been unstoppable, and they will be going up against the best big man in the country this season (numbers wise) in Thomas Robinson from Kansas. Not to mention that T-Rob is pretty entertaining to watch anyway.

And what about the two games opposing each other at the top of the bracket, Kentucky-Indiana and Syracuse-Wisconsin? If UK-IU comes close to the first meeting between the two teams, it'll be worth the price of admission, and Wisconsin finally looks like it is playing the level of basketball it is capable of, while Syracuse righted the ship in the third round against Kansas State. The Orange are never going to be the same team defensively without Fab Melo, but they have the opportunity to be a much more deadly offensive team throughout the game. The Orange are not out of the national title hunt yet.

The bottom line is this: The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight are almost never as fun as the rounds that precede them. The sheer volume of basketball (and therefore number of entertaining games that transpire) that whittles the field from 64 to 16 is difficult to overcome. But the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight still have in them what has always made college basketball the best basketball there is: you get to see these guys lay everything out there. We get to watch these players give it absolutely everything they have, because for most of them, it will be the last Sweet 16 game they play. For the players coming from North Carolina and Kentucky, it will be the last fun, team-oriented basketball they play.

Getting to see guys really care about winning, and going as hard as they can to keep on playing is the best part of this tournament. With perhaps the exception of Kevin Garnett in his first year with the Celtics, stuff like Robbie Hummel's reaction walking off the court and in the press conferences just doesn't happen in pro sports. It's why college basketball will always be the best. It's why I'm going to keep on watching.

Thursday late games Roundup

Usually having a Thursday off work doesn't do me much good. But I was lucky enough to have the opening Thursday of March Madness off work, and plan on taking full advantage. I will watch every single game, and give whatever reactions are necessary to capture the day in basketball. Here's what went down in the final eight games of the day.

Best Game
The second set of games were better than the first eight, but not by much. The game of the day has to go to Wichita State vs. Virginia Commonwealth. In one of the more highly anticipated mid-major games of the night, the Rams completed the first upset of the day by responding to a Wichita State rally and hitting shots late to win the game. VCU has made its mark on the defensive end this year, and that was no different in this game. Wichita State, the defending NIT Champs, came out cold and had trouble dealing with VCU's pressure in the first half. The Shockers staged a late rally, but VCU responded, and viewers were treated to a couple minutes of pressure-packed, back-and-forth basketball. In the end, VCU made its shots in the final two minutes than Wichita could muster. As a result, Shaka Smart and the Rams have picked up where they left off in the NCAAs last year. Wichita State looked like the type of experience-laden, athletic and deep team that could give Kentucky trouble in the South Region. But that is no longer an option.
Honorable mention to Colorado's win over UNLV, in which the Buffaloes built a 20-point lead in the second half on the strength of some unbelievable shooting, and then managed to hold off the Runnin' Rebels' furious rally, bringing the lead as low as two at one point.

Biggest Disappointment
Connecticut. This is really a season-long award for the Huskies, but it was personified in the defending champs' loss to Iowa State. How a team can have all those future-NBA players and be so bad is beyond me. But UConn manages to pull it off. Jeremy Lamb is an unbelievable player, but he disappears. Andre Drummond is supposed to be the second best center prospect in college basketball, but he does nothing. UConn was without its coach for much of the season, but that is not even close to an excuse for falling behind Iowa State by 22 points in the first half. Sure, Connecticut made a run in the second to make things closer, but they were worn out at the end and fell apart. They never should have been in the position to need a comeback that significant.

Trending Topics
Defense wins Championships? Since the beginning of the day, we've seen several high-octane offenses stifled, and the teams possessing those offenses. Davidson, Wichita State and UNLV all had among the highest-scoring offenses in the country, and were very smooth in their fast-paced style of play. But Louisville, VCU and Colorado shut those teams down for the most part, allowing only the offenses to ignite only in brief spurts. In addition, BYU's defensive adjustments made the difference against Iona in the first four, when the Gaels had previously put on one of the great offensive displays ever, and Murray State was down one to Colorado State at halftime, but picked it up significantly on the defensive end, and held the Rams to just 16 second half points en route to an impressive win. Will the defenses continue to dominate? Here's to hoping that Notre Dame's defense does the trick against Xavier, and Vermont's is successful against North Carolina (ha).

Looking forward to Round 3
Ohio State beat Loyola Maryland by 19, but was not especially impressive. Loyola was vastly undersized, and had to navigate the game with every starter in foul trouble for most of the game. Still, the Greyhounds stuck around for an inordinate amount of time. On the other hand, Gonzaga looked great against West Virginia. The Zags opened up a 20-point lead in what felt like no time, and held onto it. It was Deshaun Thomas and Jared Sullinger who dominated the game against Loyola, and they won't likely be able to expose Gonzaga on the interior. Elias Harris and Robert Sacre are big enough to contend with Thomas and Sullinger. If the Buckeyes don't play better defense, they may be exiting early.

Thursday early games Roundup

Usually having a Thursday off work doesn't do me much good. But I was lucky enough to have the opening Thursday of March Madness off work, and plan on taking full advantage. I will watch every single game, and give whatever reactions are necessary to capture the day in basketball. Here's what went down in the first eight games.

Best Game
Syracuse vs. UNC-Asheville. In a game that will forever be tainted by the officiating in my mind, Syracuse pushed ahead in the second half and hung on with some help to avoid being the first 1-seed ever to lose. There are several terrible calls that can be pointed out from this game (a no-call goaltending, a lane violation called on a guard and the worst out-of-bounds call in recent memory are the most obvious). What's most amazing is none of them necessarily won Syracuse the game. It just would have been closer by two or three points on certain possessions down the stretch. But watching the game, any non-Cuse fan was only thinking about how the little guys had been cheated. It's a shame that Asheville guard Matt Dickey's career came to end in a game like that. Dickey, an excellent guard and Big South Player of the Year, was just 1-13 from the field, and those calls certainly did not help with the bitter taste in his mouth at the end of the game.

Biggest Disappointment
Second half officiating in the Cuse/Asheville game. But since that's already been discussed, Montana is my biggest disappointment. The 13 seed looked absolutely nothing like the team I had seen play earlier this season. The Grizzlies came in with a similar play-style and enough size to give Wisconsin plenty of trouble. They do their best work on the defensive end, but not in this game. After surrendering a late run to give Wisconsin a 10-point lead at half, it still looked like the Grizz had a shot if they started shooting better in the second half. Instead, they went into hibernation (which is odd, because it's getting to springtime), and handed Wisconsin its most lopsided victory of the season since conference play started (read: since they started playing decent teams). They gave up 73 to Wisconsin! Ugh.

Trending Topics
Mid-major teams that I have lauded are going down fast. When I wrote about mid-major teams to watch out for, it was teams that actually looked like they could cause some problems in the early rounds of the tournament. Evidently not. Iona suffered the biggest collapse in NCAA Tournament history Tuesday night, and today Davidson and Montana laid a couple eggs on the court. Long Beach State was competitive in its game against New Mexico, but couldn't make plays down the stretch and lost as well. South Dakota State and St. Bonaventure (the two longest shots on that list, by seeding) are the last line of defense against a goose egg in my upsets column.

What to look for in Round Three
Murray State and Marquette will meet in what should be a pretty fun matchup. Once again, Marquette does not have great size, which will suit Murray just fine. Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year Isaiah Canaan is going to need to step up. He has had two straight poor shooting games that have still resulted in wins for Murray State. That is a testament to how good the Racers really are. But a no-show from Canaan will not work out quite so well against Marquette, methinks.
Syracuse vs. Kansas State is also an interesting matchup. Are the Orange really as vulnerable as they looked against Asheville, or was it just a classic case of early tournament jitters and adjustments? If Bob Wenzel is to be believed (and he's not), then 'Cuse will be fine. My gut tells me Syracuse will win the game, but once again not by much. At the very least, I think it will be a non-referee-aided victory, which would be nice to see.

A March Madness Mid-Major Extravaganza

We've made it through Championship Week. The 68 team bracket is out. Like most years, it contains its disappoints and its surprises. But there's no time to dwell on that nonsense anymore. Games start today, and while today and Wednesday's games don't feature any teams that I'll be picking to make the Final Four, one of them will showcase two teams that have been on and off the my Mid-Major Report all season long. And while the key to winning online contests like ESPN's Tournament Challenge is more about getting all the picks correct from the Elite Eight on, way more bragging rights can be gained from picking the big 13 over 4 or 12 over 5 upset early on, or correctly choosing a 10 or 11 seed to advance to the Sweet 16. So here we are, on the precipice of the dance, and here are some teams to keep your eye on, outside of the top eight seeds.

Iona
The Gaels do not belong on the tournament; let's get that out of the way. However, now that they have been selected, they should be taken very seriously. Iona boasts one of the best offenses in the country. Featuring the leader in the country in assists per game this season, Scott Machado, the Gaels seem to have 100 different guys that can just shoot the ball extremely well. It is why their field goal percentage has been in the top five all season long. Machado and Momo Jones will both likely be NBA players before it is all said an done. Any mid-major team with that kind of talent is going to be dangerous for an upset (over the past two years, Butler has lost two players to the NBA. They were a pretty decent mid-major squad). The bad news for the Gaels in this tournament is that they will have to get through a very good BYU team in order to even have a chance at an upset. The good news? If Iona does manage to dispatch the Cougars, they play Marquette in the second round. Marquette is an excellent team, but not one with great size. Marquette will not likely be able to exploit its athleticism against Iona, so size would be the next best option. But without much in the way of great big men (just great forwards), Marquette could be vulnerable here.

Davidson
My love for this Wildcats team is irrational. But I can't help it. Watching them play is just so much fun. They are a true team, getting contributions from every position, eight players deep. They have two excellent players in Demon Brooks and Jake Cohen, and a classic short-white-guard-who-shouldn't-be-good-but-is-because-he's-crafty player in Nik Cochran. And guess what? The Wildcats get to play Louisville in the first round. Yes, Louisville got hot and won the Big East Tournament, but it was one of the worst Big East Tournaments ever, and it's pretty common to have a hangover after winning all those games on consecutive days. Plus, the Cardinals might even be undersized playing against Davidson. I see this game as one going down to the wire. The key to me is whether Cohen can avoid foul trouble. The two games I've seen Davidson play this year, he has been unstoppable, but picked up too many fouls to keep playing. He must avoid that to give Davidson its best chance.

Long Beach State
Yep, the 12, 13 and 14 seeds all from the same region are teams to watch out for. It almost certainly won't happen, but how cool would it be if these teams all played on the weekend with a shot at the Sweet 16? Long Beach State played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country in the non-conference, and then ran through its conference play to a Big West title. As a result, the 49ers will not be even a little bit scared of New Mexico in the second round of the tournament. We all know about Casper Ware and what a great player he is (I hope), but what I really like about LBSU in the tournament is the team's coach, Dan Monson. Monson was Gonzaga's coach before Mark Few took over and was at the helm of the team when it made its first run as a Cinderella to the Elite Eight. Since then, Gonzaga has vaulted onto the national scene and recruits with the best in the country. Monson moved on to coach Minnesota, and had only limited success. Now, he's back where he belongs in the mid-major ranks, and doing extremely well again.

South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits are an excellent mid-major team led by an unbelievable guard in Nate Wolters. What is most impressive about Wolters is that he gets most of his scoring done inside the three-point line. He's not just an unbelievable shooter who can bomb it all day; he's a crafty, quicker-and-faster-than-you-think guard who can get to the rim, dish the ball effectively and also grab boards. It also helps that Wolters can rely on his teammates to knock down jump shots, like they did in the Summit League final to punch a ticket to the dance. South Dakota State has an interesting matchup in its first game of the tournament: Baylor. On the one hand, Baylor is very big, talented and athletic; that is what we saw when it beat Kansas in the Big-12 Tournament. On the other hand, Baylor has looked like one of the softer teams in the country this season--that is what we saw when the Bears lost to Kansas State and Iowa State this season (not bad teams by an stretch, but it just seemed like Baylor was weak in those games). So if South Dakota State runs into the right Baylor team Thursday, look out.

Montana
I was hoping and praying that Weber State would beat Montana in the Big Sky Finals, because Damian Lillard is amazing to watch. But the Grizz blew Weber State out and showed that there is no doubt they should be the team representing that conference in the tournament. Montana is another well-balanced group, and they have an excellent matchup in the first round: Wisconsin. Montana is like a small-conference doppelganger for Wisconsin, from what I've seen. Both get pretty balance scoring from a variety of players, and the big men can shoot the three as well as the guards. Montana doesn't have anybody quite as good as Jordan Taylor or Jared Berggren, but a strong shooting day could easily have them moving on. I've seen enough of Wisconsin's offensive disappearing to know that any day could be a 45-point performance.

St. Bonaventure
Another mid-major I like based solely on the matchup in the second round. Florida State is an excellent team, especially on defense. But to say that they can be offensively challenged would be a colossal understatement. The Seminoles have scored under 50 points three times this season, including an abysmal 41-point performance on a neutral court in a loss to Harvard. They've scored under 60 points another handful of times. Their inconsistency on offense just doesn't inspire much confidence. On the other hand, Andrew Nicholson has had four 30-point games this season. If the right intersection of those two things happen (FSU struggling shooting, Nicholson going off), the Bonnies could be playing on Sunday.

So, a 12 seed, two 13 seeds and three 14 seeds? Yup. It seems crazy just to look at that sentence. But all of those are real possibilities. That stems from the fact that we have great mid-major teams, but moreso from the fact that beyond the 1 and 2 seeds (other than Duke, which could definitely lose to Lehigh in the second round), there is no team that strikes me as good. There is no team that got screwed into a three seed, or had a rough patch but is actually an awesome team that will make a run. None of them make me shake in my little space boots, and that means they won't have their mid-major counterparts shaking either.

Dayton-Xavier III: Devastation

I've tried to wait awhile and separate myself from the game that happened yesterday before writing this. While emotion can be an excellent catalyst for writing, the kind of emotion being spouted by me last night was going to be in no way conducive to any sort of creative function.

And with some time to step back and think about the game, I keep coming back to the same thing:
With 5.3 seconds left, Dayton was down one point and inbounding the ball. There is no question that 5.3 seconds is a delicate amount of time. Not enough time that you can really worry about trying to move the ball for a good shot (ideally, you want the opportunity to foul if you miss), but also enough time that a shot does not have to come immediately. Being calm about 5.3 seconds and the opportunity it represents as an offense (Christian Laettner got off a fake, dribble and turnaround-fadeaway in 2.1 seconds. Yes, I'm posting this video and watching it as a means to feeling better) can be the key to winning a game in the closing seconds. Unfortunately, whatever happened in the UD huddle leading up to Chris Johnson's final meaningful shot of his career, calm was not instilled.

CJ received the inbound pass from Kevin Dillard running away from the basket and immediately put up a nearly impossible shot. With that type of momentum going in the wrong direction, to put up a shot was ludicrous. But CJ did, and it fell short, as all such shots do, and Dayton lost, as most such games turn out. Watching with my dad, he immediately spouted, "That's a horrible shot. That was a horrible shot, what was he doing? You've gotta shot fake, and go to the basket!" After about 60 seconds of my staring at the TV screen and not moving, I answered a call from my brother. The conversation went something like this.

"Hey."
"What was he doing shooting that ball?"
"I don't know, man. I don't want to talk about it."
"Yeah I know it bud. Bottom line is down one you always go to the rim to try and score."
"Yeah."

Bottom line is whatever happened during the final two timeouts of Dayton's 70-69 loss to Xavier in the A-10 Quarterfinals, it was at least clear that Chris Johnson was considered a solid option. Whatever was drawn up or directed, the way CJ took his shot so quickly, it seemed clear with Dillard throwing the ball in that he was the desired option. Upon catching the ball, CJ had three options, two involving pump fakes (fake and go past Mark Lyons to the basket, or fake and go into Lyons to draw a foul). He chose option three, which was shoot immediately. You know the rest.

Two years ago, Xavier beat Dayton at the Cintas Center 78-74, due to some unbelievable individual plays from Jordan Crawford. After Dayton exacted its revenge and throttled X 90-65, a member of the UD staff said that he knew they were a better team than Xavier was, citing the 4-point loss away from home and 25-point win at home as proof. And at the time, I certainly agreed with him. But in game three, in the A-10 Tournament, Dayton gained an early lead, couldn't hold it, and fell apart in the end in a 78-73 loss. This year, Dayton beat Xavier easily at home and barely lost on the road again, but which team was really better was anyone's guess. What hurts so bad about this loss is Dayton had the game won. Matt Kavanaugh hit two free throws with 3:02 remaining to put Dayton up 69-63. Those were the last points Dayton scored. UD spent the rest of the game allowing Mark Lyons and Tu Holloway to get to the basket, and stalling on offense until a three-pointer had to be thrown up to avoid a shot clock violation (unsuccessfully once).

One basket during that stretch and Xavier starts fouling, sending Dayton's excellent foul-shooters to the line. Kavanaugh, Dillard, CJ and Paul Williams combine to go 7-8 or 9-10 from the line to close the game. Holloway starts crying when he realizes that not even his 30-foot step-back threes are going to win the game for Xavier this time. Dayton fans start rejoicing, first because Holloway is crying, and second because Dayton has now won the game.

But that made basket never came. Kavanaugh's cutting, leaning layup wouldn't drop, and CJ's no-pump last gasp never stood a chance. Dayton's shot at knocking Xavier out of the NCAA Tournament and bringing itself a step closer fell by the wayside, like many of the Flyers' losses this year.

In the end, what said it all was one bullet-point from Joe Lunardi's late-night Bracketology update after the action last night: "Dayton drops of the bubble with a loss to Xavier in the A-10 quarterfinals." Meanwhile, Xavier appears to have removed itself from the bubble, and win or lose against Saint Louis on Saturday, Tu Holloway will be dancing once more.

When are things going to to turn for Dayton?

UD's shot to take down Xavier

When a Duke-North Carolina game is upcoming, the ESPN pundits typically end up speaking to a player from one or the other team. Every time, the conversation ends up going to the relationship between the players on the two teams. And typically, what we find out is that the Duke and UNC players do not hate each other like the fans and students of the two schools do. While they do play hard against each other on the court, they get along pretty well outside of their games against each other. They play pick-up games together and hang out.

The same may or may not be true for the Dayton and Xavier players. A story from last year quotes Chris Wright as saying he knows many Xavier players and gets along with some of them. Whatever the relationship between Chris Johnson and Tu Holloway may be, I prefer to think of it as one with no love lost. Same with that between Matt Kavanaugh and Kenny Frease. It's more fun to think of it that way, because it gives me reason number 1,743 why it would be sweet if Dayton were to beat Xavier in the Atlantic 10 Tournament Friday.

For the third year in a row, the Flyers and Musketeers will meet in the A-10 Tournament. Last year, Dayton upset Xavier in the quarterfinals and it was cool because UD was beating Xavier; that's always cool. Still, Dayton lost in the A-10 Finals to Richmond and did not make the NCAA Tournament; Xavier did. Two years ago, in the now-infamous (at least among UD fans) Rob Lowery "punch" game, Dayton lost late to Jordan Crawford and Tu Holloway and had its NCAA Tournament hopes dashed. Crawford and Xavier went on to have an excellent tournament. I was at that game, and had as sour a taste in my mouth as I can remember.

Reason No. 1 why it would be sweet if Dayton were to beat Xavier tomorrow? UD can repay the favor from two years ago. Xavier currently sits as one of the final four teams in the bracket in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, while Dayton is about the ninth team outside the field of 68. If they were to lose to Dayton, Xavier would finish the season at 19-12, and you would have to figure that it would end Xavier's hopes at an NCAA bid. To be 1-2 against a team from the same conference that is close to a bid, with similar records, RPIs and Kenpom ratings would be a dagger.

And how awesome would that be? Even if Dayton were to miss the tournament in the grand scheme of things, the possiblity of being 2-1 against Xavier and also being the cause of their demise from the dance is an enticing prospect. To know that Dayton had been better than Xavier in a year in which X was looking like one of the best teams in the country (ranked in the top 10 in the country early in the year), in Tu Holloway's senior year, gets me as excited as the thought of a night on the town with Katy Perry.

Now of course, I shouldn't get ahead of myself. Dayton still has to beat Xavier for any of these beautiful fantasies to come true. And that is going to be no easy task. Dayton played a great game in beating Xavier at home, and then played pretty well but still lost in overtime to the Musketeers at the Cintas Center. Holloway and Mark Lyons were pretty incredible (it hurts me to say that) in both games. But those two are going to score no matter what. They take a ton of shots and are very talented players. The key for Dayton will be winning at every other position on the court. Chris Johnson has played excellent basketball over the past few weeks. He must continue. Matt Kavanaugh and Kenny Frease traded good games in the two matchups this season; Kavanaugh will have to be the better player this time. And Devin Oliver, coming off the best game of his career, will have to follow it up and play well again. Oliver has not scored in his career against Xavier (that's completely true. Unbelievable, but true). Obviously, that's going to have to change.

The good news is UD fans shouldn't (repeat: shouldn't) have to worry about the Flyers not showing up for the game. We've seen before how Dayton has been poor in important games against inferior competition. In my experience, UD has not had trouble being prepared and coming out playing hard for games against Xavier. Even last year's teams, underachievers extraordinaire, played Xavier close at home and then of course beat X in the A-10 Tourney.

Man, it would be sweet to see that happen again. Extra sweet in 2012.

Who to root for in Championship Week

The Dayton Flyers finished the regular season 19-11 and will play George Washington at home again before (hopefully) travelling to Atlantic City to take on, once again, Xavier. If they beat Xavier, they will likely play St. Louis. If they beat St. Louis, they will probably play Temple or St. Bonaventure. If they win that game, they will earn the Atlantic 10's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Of course I am rooting for this to happen, but I also realize it is a pipe dream.

So with so much more basketball than the A-10 tournament happening this week, it's important to figure out which teams are worth rooting for and which should be rooted against. At the end of this week, the field of 68 determined. In between, all sorts of scenarios could play out; Northwestern could run the table at the Big Twelve Ten Tournament and earn itself something like a 7 seed. Or the Wildcats could lose in the first round to Minnesota and probably miss out on getting a bid altogether. Similar situations abound across the country. And of course, there are plenty of mid-majors fighting to receive the one-and-only bid that will be awarded to their conferences. Four bids are already set. Who do we want to see getting the other 64?

One important thing to note: this is going to mostly consist of "root for mid-major teams and root against Big-6 teams." But that's not all there is to it. You have to root for the right mid-majors, because we want the best NCAA Tournament possible. Upsets are very cool, but while watching sixth-seeded Northwestern State (16-15, 8-8) run through the Southland Tournament might be a fun time, it will result in the Demons receiving a 15 or 16 seed and getting destroyed in the first round. On the other hand, were top seed UT-Arlington (23-7, 15-1) to win the tournament, they would still likely receive a similar seed in the NCAAs (currently a 15 in Joe Lunardi's bracketology, could grab a 14), but Arlington would actually stand a chance of upsetting a 2 or 3 seed that it matches up with well or is having an off day. That is what we are rooting for. The teams that give us the best chance at a thrilling first four days of the tournament.

That is why today we mourn for Iona and Middle Tennessee State, which were relegated to the NIT with losses in their conference tournaments yesterday. Both teams were the class of their conferences (Iona 15-3, MTSU 14-2), but could not survive the tournament atmosphere. Both teams (especially Iona) would have been popular upset picks at the 13 or 12 slot in the bracket. Both teams played entertaining brands of basketball, and would have made for great round of 64 matchups, but they will not be there. Without further ado, here's who to root for to make sure we don't miss out on any more great games.

Long Beach State
If there is one team you root for out of the ordinary this week, make it the 49ers please. If you've kept up to date on mid-major reports, you know about LBSU; the team played the No. 1 non-conference strength of schedule this season, play at Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas and North Carolina. While most of those were losses, all them were by single digits. The 49ers proved they are capable of at least giving the big boys a game, and then emphasized it by racing to a 15-0 start in conference play. Then a three point loss at Cal State Fullerton (the 2 seed in the Big West Tournament) made LBSU suddenly look much more vulnerable to a loss in the tournament. The fact that Long Beach lost all those early season games by small margins makes no difference for its tournament chances; it needs to win this tournament to make the dance. Watching LBSU play basketball is an absolute pleasure, and they boast one of the best mid-major guards in the country in Caspar Ware. Help the 49ers bring this one home.

Weber State
The Wildcats are actually not the top seed in the Big Sky Tournament. That would be the Montana Grizzlies, who beat Weber State by 15 in the final game of the season to take the regular season title at 15-1 (Weber finished 14-2). And I really have nothing against Montana. The Grizz are a tough team (23-6 on the year). But they don't have Damian Lillard, the second-leading scorer in the country. Weber State does. I think the Grizz and Weber State have equal potential as far as an upset in the first round is concerned. But I'm more interested in the possibility of Lillard doing something like dropping 35 in the process of a win or loss than I am about watching Montana. Sorry, Grizz.

Washington and California
Look, the Pac-12 is horrible this year. Still, there's no way the committee has just one team from a Big-6 conference make the tournament. So let's just have the top two teams from the conference run the table in the Pac-12 Tournament, and then who cares which one of them wins in the final? Just so long as Oregon (currently on Lunardi's First Four Out) and Arizona (not close, but still could win the automatic bid) don't complicate things by playing themselves in. Because the reality is that Washington and Cal are probably going to receive at-large bids no matter what. We need them to make sure nobody else from that conference gets a bid so they can get beaten up in the first round of the Big Dance (ahem, USC).

Davidson
Anybody who saw Davidson play its Bracketbusters game against Wichita State knows that this is just the type of team to give somebody trouble as a 13 or 14 seed in the first round. They have a great starting five, three very skilled players, play as a team, have size, and can go eight or nine players deep if necessary. Tonight the Wildcats just need to beat Western Carolina and secure an automatic bid. WCU in the tournament is not what any basketball fan (other than a WCU basketball fan) should want. Davidson is. Tune in at 9 and check the Cats out.

Oral Roberts or South Dakota State
The Summit League Tournament is only playing its semifinals tonight, which means the top two seeds still have some work to do. But if ORU can beat Western Illinois and SDSU can beat Southern Utah, both teams would represent the Summit well in the NCAA Tournament. Oral Roberts won the conference at 17-1, but South Dakota St. wasn't far behind at 15-3. The teams split games in the regular season, both winning by double figures at home. Both teams have great individual players (Dominique Morrison averages 19.9 ppg and is Oral Roberts' all-time leading scorer and Nate Wolters averages 21.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg 6.1 apg, and is in total control at all times he's on the floor for South Dakota State). Either one would present some troubles for a 4 or 5 seed.

Mississippi Valley State
For some reason that is unfathomable to me, the SWAC Tournament hasn't even begun yet. It should probably have held its championship game last week, but it still has three rounds to play. But that means we need to take advantage by rooting for the Delta Devils of Mississippi Valley State. MVSU went just 18-12 on the season. But it went 17-1 in the worst conference in the country. Yes, you read that correctly, MVSU won just one non-conference game. But the teams with the best non-conference records out of the SWAC are Prairie View A&M and Southern University, each of which won four games. Three of those wins came against Division 2 schools for both teams. So after coming into conference play at 1-11 (after playing an actually pretty respectable non-conference set of games, with not a single one of them being at home), MVSU proved it was the best team in the conference, winning the regular season by four games despite losing its final game of the season to Arkansas-Pine Bluff. For the right to come to Dayton and play in the first four, we should all be rooting for the Delta Devils.

Virginia Commonwealth? Drexel?
I just don't know. In my mind, both of these teams have earned a bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Bracketology is saying otherwise, though. Joe Lunardi currently has VCU as one of his First Four Out of the tournament, and has Drexel as a 13 seed receiving the automatic bid, meaning if they do not win the Colonial Tournament, they and VCU would probably more or less swap places in his projections. I don't know how that can be. Drexel closed the regular season on a 17 game winnning streak. VCU won 14 of 15 (losing on a buzzer-beater) to close the season. At that point, both teams should have been projected in the tournament, while a loss early in the conference tournament would have knocked them out, because it would have been a bad loss. But that didn't happen. Both teams have won two games, and are meeting for the conference championship. What else do you want them to do? Both teams have 27 wins against not-great schedules, but not close to cream-puff ones either. And both teams have been phenomenal lately. Isn't that what we want in the NCAA Tournament? My gut is telling me both teams will in fact get a bid come selection Sunday, but if Lunardi is proved correct and only one team will be invited, root for Drexel tonight. The Dragons won the regular season matchup, so they've earned it more.

As for who to root against:
Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, Iowa, Miami (FL), Clemson, Tennessee
The narrative is more or less the same for these teams. With the exception of one win, they all have beaten nobody this season. They have all beaten up on the weaker teams in their non-conference and conference schedules, and then lost in games against good competition, or on the road. We don't want 18-13 Tennessee in the tournament over 25-6 Virginia Commonwealth (regular season records). We don't want 19-12 South Florida to beat BYU out for a spot. In his current projections, Lunardi has eight at-large bids going to seeds 11-13. Five of those are teams from Power-6 conferences. That's plenty, probably too much. We don't need anymore. A couple of these teams losing early in their respective conference tournaments would go a long way to getting the right group into the Big Dance.

Colorado State
See? It's not all big schools that should be rooted against. Unlike the group above, Colorado State has more than one big win. The Rams actually have three, over UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico. The similarity between those three wins? They all came at home. On the road this year, the Rams have lost to Stanford (by 12), Northern Iowa, Wyoming (by 19), New Mexico (by 33!), UNLV (by 19), TCU and Boise State (they did lose a couple others on the road, but those were to good teams by more acceptable margins). I understand a team does not have to win on the road to win in the NCAA Tournament, but it is a part of earning your spot there during the regular season. Maybe the Rams are the type of team that could make some noise in the tournament since they'd be at a neutral site, but if they are stopping the CAA from receiving two bids? No way, get 'em out.


...Oh and Xavier. Root against Xavier always.

Sighs Galore

If there has been a more depressing team to follow than the University of Dayton men's basketball team over the past three years, I would love to hear about it. It might make me feel a little bit better.

So much of me is screaming to give the 2011-12 version of Dayton's "get your hopes up and shoot them down in one fell swoop four times a season" basketball team a break. This team has played with eight scholarship players for most of the season, two of which are Luke Fabrizius and Ralph Hill. It lost its best big man and shot blocker in the middle of the season. In the past two years, the team has seen 12 players leave as a result of graduation, transferring or backing out of commitments. So yeah, things were going to be tough this year. But I can't give Dayton a break. Time and again this season, despite playing with all those disadvantages, they've been in great position and lost. They've won the tough games and then fallen asleep in the easier ones. Home to Buffalo with a 5-1 record, UD lost, 84-55. Then home to Seton Hall (certainly not a bad team, but at home? gotta beat them) with a 8-3 record, UD lost 69-64. At 12-4, Dayton lost 81-73 at St. Bonaventure. At 14-5, Dayton began a four-game A-10 losing streak by going down to St. Joe's, then Rhode Island, then Duquesne.

And last night, barely treading water at 18-10, Dayton had what should have been a relatively easy chance to keep itself afloat. But the Flyers quit spreading the butter on the surface and stopped riding the bicycle underneath it. UD lost 82-71 at Richmond, a mediocre team that Dayton has the talent to beat four out of five times. Instead of the four, this game was the one. Dayton gave up 82 points to a team that averages 69 a game. It gave up 30 points to a player that was averaging 13.5 per game. Chris Johnson and Kevin Dillard played well on offense, but the team laid an egg on defense. Maybe Richmond was hot last night. But that's what we said about Buffalo and Seton Hall's guards and Andrew Nicholson and Billy Baron and Tu Holloway. At a certain point, you have to stop making excuses.

Yes, this Dayton team is playing with less than any team should ever have to, but that didn't matter at Temple or in UD Arena against Alabama and Xavier. Perhaps in those games UD played to its maximum potential and delivered an unsustainable performance. But even if that's the case, Dayton has been unable to even deliver an average performance in its simpler contests this season.

Losses like last night make you wonder if this team really has changed at all. How can a team know that it has a shot at the NCAA Tournament and not just go thrash a bad opponent. How are the players not so fired about that opportunity that they show off their superior skills and dominate a game?

I guess we'll keep on wondering until we see Dayton win this type of game. Don't hold your breath.