Make or Break?

Last week I wrote about the Dayton-Duquesne game, and how it didn't matter that much because UD's NCAA Tournament hopes rested solely on winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Still, I wanted to see the Flyers play hard, play well and win. Well, they did that. And as far as I was concerned, nothing had changed for UD except for the number in its win column this season. Then my brother pointed me to this tweet from Joe Lunardi, saying that UD was closer than maybe we expected to being a tournament team. Flabbergasted, I followed UD's performance while at work that night as it thrashed Massachusetts, 76-43 at home. When I got home, I watched ESPN and got on ESPN.com for the latest Bracketology updates, and couldn't believe my eyes when I saw that Dayton was Lunardi's seventh team out of the tournament--they were his 45th-best candidate to receive an at-large bid. I sort of assumed that Joe had lost his mind, but looking at other brackets, the same was true. UD was just outside the field (in some cases, in it).

So is Dayton's game at Richmond tonight a make or break for the Flyers? No and yes. Winning at Richmond (15-15, 6-9 A-10) will not vault the Flyers into the projected NCAA Tournament field, or even help them bypass a single team in front of them (unless one of those teams loses). But losing to Richmond would certainly spell doom for Dayton's at-large chances (I am still skeptical that these even exist).

That is why tonight's game is so nerve-racking. If there is any type of game that UD has perfected losing, it is this one. An important game against a weak opponent (almost always a conference opponent) that will drastically effect Dayton's place in the A-10 standings one way or another. I don't really want to look to the past for proof, but here goes: at 3-3 in the A-10 last year, Dayton traveled to Duquesne and lost 84-62. After righting the ship the Flyers were 5-4 in A-10 play; they then lost by 14 at Rhode Island. At 7-8 in the conference that year, Dayton played its final game at George Washington and lost 60-58. In the 2009-10 season, UD was 3-1 in the A-10, then lost consecutive games at Saint Joe's and with Rhode Island visiting. At 6-3 in the conference, Dayton lost 68-65 at Saint Louis, then lost on senior night again to the Billikens while sporting an 8-7 record. During the 2007-08 season, Dayton suffered some injuries after starting 2-0 in the conference. In then lost at home to UMass, 82-71. After recovering somewhat and getting to 4-4, Dayton lost consecutive games at George Washington and home to Duquesne. Are you getting the picture? (Too bad if you aren't, because I'm slamming my head against the desk as I'm writing this. For my own safety, we aren't reliving any more devastation). All three of those teams were on and off the bubble throughout the second half of the season. I believe each of them had the talent to make the big dance, but none of them did.

This year's team is not the same in terms of style of play, but in terms of wins and losses the similarities are striking. At 2-0 in the A-10, Dayton lost at St. Bonaventure. At 4-1, the Flyers forgot how to play defense and lost three straight to weaker teams (St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne) and then one more at a good St. Louis team. Like in past years, it is not unreasonable to say that a win instead of a loss in any of Dayton's A-10 defeats would barely change the team's record, but it would make the team's resume look significantly better. This year's team would be 19-9, and in a third-place tie at 9-5 in the conference. It's just one game, but doesn't 19-9, 9-5 look worlds better than 18-10, 8-6. It does to me. Not to mention that it would take a bad loss of of UD's resume.

Perhaps the most annoying thing about this season as it has turned out, though, is a game we all expected UD to lose. When UD lost 86-83 in overtime at Xavier Feb. 18th, I think it's fair to say most UD fans were disappointed that the team had come so close and lost, but not surprised that Dayton had lost. But now, Xavier has had an extremely rocky second half of the season, and according to Lunardi, is outside the field of 68 just like UD. Essentially this means that a win at Xavier could have (would likely have?) put Dayton in charge of its own tournament destiny, and all but eliminated Xavier's chances. How sweet would that have been? About 150,000 times sweeter than when Brian Roberts dropped 30 points on Pittsburgh.

Sorry, I got carried away there. There's no point in getting caught up in the past. Because tonight, Dayton plays a game that is just as important as that one at Xavier was. Kris Mooney and Richmond have had Dayton's number the past couple years. Last year, it was Richmond that denied Dayton a surprise bid to the tournament by beating them in the A-10 Tourney Championship. But this has been a rebuilding year for the Spiders. It's time for the Flyers to jump on them and take advantage. The committee just might be watching.