Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Mid-Major Report: 1/31


Here we are at the end of January, and we suffered a major shake-up in the past seven days of basketball at the mid-major level. Several teams lost their first games in weeks, others looking to crack the top-10 fell apart, and with the announcement of the Bracketbusters games yesterday, it's looking like we could be in for some crazy results later in the year. As always, refer to the first report of the year for information on how these rankings are determined.

Dropped out: Iona (2-1 on the week, lost at Siena), Middle Tennessee (1-1, lost at Vanderbilt)
Outside looking in: Long Beach State, Southern Miss Drexel, Cleveland State, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth

10. Nevada (18-3, 90th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings)
The Wolfpack have been hovering outside the top 10 since the very first mid-major report, mainly because they have not beaten anybody good this year (the team's three losses have come in its three toughest tests against Missouri State, UNLV and BYU). But riding a 15-game winning streak, Nevada saw enough teams stumble in the past week to crack our list. In both classic and advanced statistics, the Wolfpack look mediocre at best. The only category on either ESPN or kenpom.com in which they rank better than 80th is in "luck" at kenpom. This is a stat meant to communicate how much a team has positively deviated from its expectation based on his other statistics. So with the sixth best "luck" rating in the country, Nevada would have been expected to have three or four more losses by now. But they don't. And with 15 in a row and 18-3, the Wolfpack are exactly where they belong: in the top-10 for the first time this year.

9. New Mexico (17-4, 23 Pomeroy)
The Lobos got a bit of a raw deal in dropping out last week after a really tough 1-2 punch in games against San Diego State and UNLV. But they bounced back this week with two dominant wins in the Mountain West, and have made their way back into the top 10 through the attrition of some tough losses by other teams. The Lobos are well-liked by Pomeroy's system, with a top-40 adjusted-offense and defense. They are also 10th in the nation in averaging 17 assists per game. New Mexico will enjoy one more week of relatively easy games, then hits a brutal five game stretch in which they play the five of the top six Mountain West teams in a row (New Mexico is the one top-six team that New Mexico won't be playing during that stretch). To entertain any hopes of an at-large bid, between now and Feb. 26, when that stretch is over, I would think the Lobos should plan on going no worse than 5-2.

8. Wichita State (18-4, 12 Pomeroy)
The Shockers just about killed their chances of a Missouri Valley Conference regular season title with a triple-overtime loss at Drake Saturday. That loss is also why they've dropped three spots in the rankings this week, but it wasn't enough to knock them out. Wichita is still an elite mid-major program, and it is still loved irrationally by the formula used at kenpom.com. We'll see if Wichita can show its top-20 adjusted-offensive and defensive ratings are no fluke, as the Shockers are now going to start the toughest stretch of their season. They will play every other MVC team that has looked tough this year, including at Creighton, as well as play a tough Bracketbusters game at Davidson.

7. Oral Roberts (20-4, 68 Pomeroy)
With the dropping of Middle Tennessee this week after it lost a game it was expected to lose at Vanderbilt, Oral Roberts has become the darlings of this Top 10. The Golden Eagles are playing nobody good in the Summit League, but they've won 13 straight. They are still one of the best shooting teams in the country, at almost 49 percent from the field on the season. They also possess the 19th-best adjusted-offense in the country. That offense will have to carry Oral Roberts in a make-or-break week upcoming. The team plays road games at the 2nd and 3rd-place teams in the Summit League (South Dakota State and North Dakota State). At 17-6 and 9-2 in the conference, SDSU is actually going to be a very tough opponent. With two wins this week, the Golden Eagles will have a very legitimate shot at running the table in the conference.

6. Harvard (18-2, 29 Pomeroy)
The Crimson are back on the rise in our Mid-Major Report, as they're beginning to pile up wins again. With two easy road wins last week, Harvard has won six in a row and is looking good doing it. Contrary to most of the teams that have populated our ranking throughout this season, Harvard makes its mark on defense. A look at just about any offensive stat for the Crimson does not paint a pretty picture: 222nd in points-per-game, 261st in rebounding, 173rd in assists, 75th in adjusted-offense. But the adjusted-defense stat has the Crimson ranked 15th. Then take a look at their results this season. One team has scored 70 or more on Harvard this year. It was in an 80-70 win over Seattle. Harvard has also held nine opponents to less than 50 points this year. Remember what happened in the NFL this year, when all we cared about was offense, and then all the teams with good defenses (except the Patriots, whose defense has actually been better in the playoffs) are the ones winning when it matters? Yeah, don't sleep on good defense.

5. San Diego State (18-3, 53 Pomeroy)
The Aztecs finally took it on the chin. After beating the toughest teams in the Mountain West and looking like a contender for a 2-seed like they enjoyed last year, the Aztecs got stomped by 17 at Colorado State Saturday. And despite a nice 52-42 win at Wyoming, San Diego State has to drop significantly in this week's poll. Could this be the beginning of an unraveling for SDSU? Their numbers still aren't very impressive (31st in adjusted-defense doesn't exactly jump off the page at you, but it is the best SDSU has to offer as far as national ranking), and according to kenpom.com, they are another one of those teams with a high "luck" rating, as mentioned above when discussing Nevada. Still, I don't think it's time to panic. San Diego State has an excellent coach in Steve Fischer, and to win the games it has this season, clearly boasts some talent as well. Those two things are always going to be a deadly combination.

4. UNLV (20-3, 21 Pomeroy)
It was a bit of a rocky week for Las Vegas, needing overtime to beat both Boise State and Air Force, but in the end, UNLV ended up with two road wins and a winning streak of four games. As has been the case all season, UNLV is an elite offensive team. The Rebels average almost 81 points a game (ninth), 40 rebounds per game (15th) and 18 assists per game (fourth). They also are 17th-best in adjusted-offense. After a week of not-exactly-creampuff-but-UNLV-should-win games, The Rebels will get their shot at revenge against San Diego State, in what will be the key game in the Mountain West conference this season. Should be fun.

3. Saint Mary's (21-2, 22 Pomeroy)
2. Creighton (20-2, 27 Pomeroy)

There doesn't seem like much point in writing about these two teams differently right now. Both experienced their last loss in late December and have been rolling since. Both went 2-0 last week in relatively easy fashion (Saint Mary's probably a bit more impressive in beating BYU at BYU by 14). Both are virtually locks for the NCAA Tournament. Both picked up a good Bracketbusters game this weekend (Creighton versus Long Beach State, Saint Mary's at Murray State) which will serve to either help another team out or knock them up a seeding or two come tournament time. Just know that both of these teams would be contending for the regular season title regardless of what conference they were playing in this season. They are both really, really good.

1. Murray State (21-0, 47 Pomeroy)
Teams that have been ranked in the top 10 of the Mid-Major Report this season and lost since the first Report on December 12: Kent State, Wichita State, UNLV, Saint Louis, Brigham Young, Cleveland State, San Diego State, Harvard, Creighton, Saint Mary's, Middle Tennessee, Virginia Commonwealth, New Mexico, Iona, Wyoming, Southern Miss, Oral Roberts.
Teams that haven't lost since the first Mid-Major Report: Nevada (last loss Nov. 25), Murray State (last loss March 15).

Yup.

1 comment:

  1. Another interesting posting Nate. It is inevitable that team will lose as they get deeper into the league season (except perhaps Murray State). Teams are so familiar with each other that there are no surprises. And one team's "breather" (SDSU) is another teams chance to prove themselves (Colorado State). I watched that SDSU-Colorado State Game on CSU's floor (chceck it out some time - huge Ram on the floor). SDSU was flat and CSU was playing like it was a tournament game. Teams in the Colonial and MVC will beat each other up, so I expect to see a bunch of them come and go. St. Mary's was VERY impressive at BYU. They might be the real #1. Let's go Long Beach State!

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