Sweet 16 Thursday Primer

Gone already are the days in which we are treated to deciding between watching CBS, TNT, TruTV and TBS because four basketball games are playing all at once. Today we get just four games total. Lucky for the people who will make the decision to keep watching, they should be some pretty good games.

Wisconsin vs. Syracuse, 7:15 p.m.
Does anyone have a handle on what's going to happen in this game? There's no way to know which version of either of these teams is going to show up tonight. Wisconsin was the team that ratings systems like Kenpom and Sagarin loved to love, but basketball fans loved to hate all season. They were rated highly, but in their play we saw a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team. But in two games in the NCAA Tournament, the Badgers have looked more the former than the latter. They thrashed a good Montana team in the first round, and then shut down Vanderbilt's best players (and therefore offense) to squash the Commodores. Now they get Syracuse, a team that is certainly better than them. But Syracuse has looked like two completely different teams in the tournament. In the first round against UNC-Asheville, the Orange were bad, playing too fast like they were panicked, and didn't shoot well on top of it. In the third round against Kansas State, they got back to basics, and Fab Melo or not, looked like the well-balanced, deep team that showed up for the entire regular season.
So which teams will show up? I think the Syracuse that played against Kansas State will be the one we see tonight. And while Wisconsin has long been the best team in the country in turning games ugly, I think even if this game goes that way, Syracuse's athleticism and depth will carry it to triumph in the end. I see the Orange build an eight to ten point lead, and then Wisconsin can never quite close that gap.

Louisville at Michigan State, 7:47 p.m.
Louisville and Michigan State come into this game as two of the hottest teams in the country; both won their conference tournament championships and have obviously followed that up by taking care of business with two wins to get the Sweet 16. Now they will run into each other. On paper to me, this one looks relatively easy. Michigan State matches up much better with Louisville than the other way around. They have the big men to go toe-to-toe with the Cardinals' bigs, and Keith Appling is just as good (probably better) than Peyton Siva, who has been a big source of offense for Louisville recently. That doesn't even take Draymond Green into account. Michigan State's point-power forward is one of the toughest matchups in the country, and Louisville would appear to be poorly suited to guard him; I'm curious to see who is going to have to take the assignment. This seems like the type of thing that could turn into a situation like the Thunder playing the Mavericks in last year's NBA Playoffs, and the Thunder experimenting with what seemed like its entire roster to find someone to guard Dirk Nowitzki. Long story short--none of them worked. The Mavs won. I think the same will happen for the Spartans. Louisville's best chance lies in turning this game into a grinder in the 50s, and having its team defense dictate what happens all game long.

Cincinnati vs. Ohio State
Without question the most anticipated game on Thursday, Cincy-OSU presents a very interesting matchup. Even beyond the mutual hatred between the programs, this looks interesting. Jared Sullinger has not been as dominant as expected this season, and when he has had poor or frustrating games, he has gotten pouty and quit all year. It has been special to watch, because when that happens, Ohio State usually loses. If UC is going to make it to the Elite Eight, that is its most likely route--through a down-in-the-dumps Sully. Luckily for the Bearcats, Yancy Gates is playing unbelievably well and has the size and skills to perhaps piss Sullinger off enough. If "Sulkinger" comes into play, Ohio State is going to need William Buford to start playing well again. The senior has been a bit of a disappointment at times this year. He is an extremely talented scorer, but has poor shooting days way too often. Ohio State is going to need the version of him that hit the game-winner against Michigan State in the regular season's final game. If the Buckeyes get that, they're going to be tough to beat period, let alone in this game.

Florida vs. Marquette
Is Florida actually a Sweet 16 team? At one point, the Gators almost cracked the top ten in the AP Rankings this season. Then, they lost several games near the end of the season and looked really vulnerable. Then, they destroyed Virginia in the second round of the tournament. In the third round, they were lucky enough to play Norfolk State, which deserves credit for outplaying Missouri, but it was very unlikely that level of play would show up again. Florida dominated again, and here we are. Marquette, on the other hand, looks every bit the part of a Final Four-capable team. The Golden Eagles are playing hard, have a coach that has changed the culture there and has every player buying into giving maximum effort, and they possess two absolute studs in Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom. The fact that I've basically written Florida off in this paragraph, however, makes this feel like a trap game. And given my track record in 2012 for picking tournament games (I have seven of 16 Sweet 16 teams correct in my bracket, the worst I can ever remember doing), maybe my word is not worth taking. But I love the way that Marquette plays, and think Florida has been fortunate to get here. I believe the Gators will be overwhelmed in the nightcap.