Mid-Major Report: 1/31

Here we are at the end of January, and we suffered a major shake-up in the past seven days of basketball at the mid-major level. Several teams lost their first games in weeks, others looking to crack the top-10 fell apart, and with the announcement of the Bracketbusters games yesterday, it's looking like we could be in for some crazy results later in the year. As always, refer to the first report of the year for information on how these rankings are determined.

Dropped out: Iona (2-1 on the week, lost at Siena), Middle Tennessee (1-1, lost at Vanderbilt)
Outside looking in: Long Beach State, Southern Miss Drexel, Cleveland State, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth

10. Nevada (18-3, 90th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings)
The Wolfpack have been hovering outside the top 10 since the very first mid-major report, mainly because they have not beaten anybody good this year (the team's three losses have come in its three toughest tests against Missouri State, UNLV and BYU). But riding a 15-game winning streak, Nevada saw enough teams stumble in the past week to crack our list. In both classic and advanced statistics, the Wolfpack look mediocre at best. The only category on either ESPN or kenpom.com in which they rank better than 80th is in "luck" at kenpom. This is a stat meant to communicate how much a team has positively deviated from its expectation based on his other statistics. So with the sixth best "luck" rating in the country, Nevada would have been expected to have three or four more losses by now. But they don't. And with 15 in a row and 18-3, the Wolfpack are exactly where they belong: in the top-10 for the first time this year.

9. New Mexico (17-4, 23 Pomeroy)
The Lobos got a bit of a raw deal in dropping out last week after a really tough 1-2 punch in games against San Diego State and UNLV. But they bounced back this week with two dominant wins in the Mountain West, and have made their way back into the top 10 through the attrition of some tough losses by other teams. The Lobos are well-liked by Pomeroy's system, with a top-40 adjusted-offense and defense. They are also 10th in the nation in averaging 17 assists per game. New Mexico will enjoy one more week of relatively easy games, then hits a brutal five game stretch in which they play the five of the top six Mountain West teams in a row (New Mexico is the one top-six team that New Mexico won't be playing during that stretch). To entertain any hopes of an at-large bid, between now and Feb. 26, when that stretch is over, I would think the Lobos should plan on going no worse than 5-2.

8. Wichita State (18-4, 12 Pomeroy)
The Shockers just about killed their chances of a Missouri Valley Conference regular season title with a triple-overtime loss at Drake Saturday. That loss is also why they've dropped three spots in the rankings this week, but it wasn't enough to knock them out. Wichita is still an elite mid-major program, and it is still loved irrationally by the formula used at kenpom.com. We'll see if Wichita can show its top-20 adjusted-offensive and defensive ratings are no fluke, as the Shockers are now going to start the toughest stretch of their season. They will play every other MVC team that has looked tough this year, including at Creighton, as well as play a tough Bracketbusters game at Davidson.

7. Oral Roberts (20-4, 68 Pomeroy)
With the dropping of Middle Tennessee this week after it lost a game it was expected to lose at Vanderbilt, Oral Roberts has become the darlings of this Top 10. The Golden Eagles are playing nobody good in the Summit League, but they've won 13 straight. They are still one of the best shooting teams in the country, at almost 49 percent from the field on the season. They also possess the 19th-best adjusted-offense in the country. That offense will have to carry Oral Roberts in a make-or-break week upcoming. The team plays road games at the 2nd and 3rd-place teams in the Summit League (South Dakota State and North Dakota State). At 17-6 and 9-2 in the conference, SDSU is actually going to be a very tough opponent. With two wins this week, the Golden Eagles will have a very legitimate shot at running the table in the conference.

6. Harvard (18-2, 29 Pomeroy)
The Crimson are back on the rise in our Mid-Major Report, as they're beginning to pile up wins again. With two easy road wins last week, Harvard has won six in a row and is looking good doing it. Contrary to most of the teams that have populated our ranking throughout this season, Harvard makes its mark on defense. A look at just about any offensive stat for the Crimson does not paint a pretty picture: 222nd in points-per-game, 261st in rebounding, 173rd in assists, 75th in adjusted-offense. But the adjusted-defense stat has the Crimson ranked 15th. Then take a look at their results this season. One team has scored 70 or more on Harvard this year. It was in an 80-70 win over Seattle. Harvard has also held nine opponents to less than 50 points this year. Remember what happened in the NFL this year, when all we cared about was offense, and then all the teams with good defenses (except the Patriots, whose defense has actually been better in the playoffs) are the ones winning when it matters? Yeah, don't sleep on good defense.

5. San Diego State (18-3, 53 Pomeroy)
The Aztecs finally took it on the chin. After beating the toughest teams in the Mountain West and looking like a contender for a 2-seed like they enjoyed last year, the Aztecs got stomped by 17 at Colorado State Saturday. And despite a nice 52-42 win at Wyoming, San Diego State has to drop significantly in this week's poll. Could this be the beginning of an unraveling for SDSU? Their numbers still aren't very impressive (31st in adjusted-defense doesn't exactly jump off the page at you, but it is the best SDSU has to offer as far as national ranking), and according to kenpom.com, they are another one of those teams with a high "luck" rating, as mentioned above when discussing Nevada. Still, I don't think it's time to panic. San Diego State has an excellent coach in Steve Fischer, and to win the games it has this season, clearly boasts some talent as well. Those two things are always going to be a deadly combination.

4. UNLV (20-3, 21 Pomeroy)
It was a bit of a rocky week for Las Vegas, needing overtime to beat both Boise State and Air Force, but in the end, UNLV ended up with two road wins and a winning streak of four games. As has been the case all season, UNLV is an elite offensive team. The Rebels average almost 81 points a game (ninth), 40 rebounds per game (15th) and 18 assists per game (fourth). They also are 17th-best in adjusted-offense. After a week of not-exactly-creampuff-but-UNLV-should-win games, The Rebels will get their shot at revenge against San Diego State, in what will be the key game in the Mountain West conference this season. Should be fun.

3. Saint Mary's (21-2, 22 Pomeroy)
2. Creighton (20-2, 27 Pomeroy)
There doesn't seem like much point in writing about these two teams differently right now. Both experienced their last loss in late December and have been rolling since. Both went 2-0 last week in relatively easy fashion (Saint Mary's probably a bit more impressive in beating BYU at BYU by 14). Both are virtually locks for the NCAA Tournament. Both picked up a good Bracketbusters game this weekend (Creighton versus Long Beach State, Saint Mary's at Murray State) which will serve to either help another team out or knock them up a seeding or two come tournament time. Just know that both of these teams would be contending for the regular season title regardless of what conference they were playing in this season. They are both really, really good.

1. Murray State (21-0, 47 Pomeroy)
Teams that have been ranked in the top 10 of the Mid-Major Report this season and lost since the first Report on December 12: Kent State, Wichita State, UNLV, Saint Louis, Brigham Young, Cleveland State, San Diego State, Harvard, Creighton, Saint Mary's, Middle Tennessee, Virginia Commonwealth, New Mexico, Iona, Wyoming, Southern Miss, Oral Roberts.
Teams that haven't lost since the first Mid-Major Report: Nevada (last loss Nov. 25), Murray State (last loss March 15).

Yup.

Losing on his Terms

I began watching tennis more closely while Andy Roddick was still at the height of his game. Roddick enjoyed time as a top-five player for a couple years, and was America's one hope on the men's side for a victory. During his time of strong play of course, there was this other guy he was constantly trying to best: Roger Federer. It didn't take long to learn my rooting against Federer when Roddick played him was futile: this Federer cat was unreal. Seemingly every shot was perfect, and he could shoot just about any one of them he wanted at a given moment in a game. How were you supposed to beat a guy like that? Eventually, as it became clear Roddick was not going to challenge Fed for long, and Fed piled up major titles, my frustration turned to fandom. Even for a marginal tennis fan like myself, the guy was just too fun to watch.

Which is why it can be absolutely brutal to watch matches like last night's (this morning's?) Australian Open, in which Federer was beaten in four sets by Rafael Nadal. I fancy Federer as the greatest men's tennis player ever, but that's a tough argument to make, because how can the greatest be absolutely owned by any other player? And make no mistake, Rafa owns Roger. He's now 8-2 in majors head-to-head with Federer, with the two losses coming much earlier in his career on his worst surface at the time. Since then, its been all-Nadal, and it hasn't even been that hard. It's gotten to the point where Nadal has such a mental edge on Federer you can see it on the court (you could see it last night).

Last night, however, Federer looked like he had a real chance at taking Nadal down. He dominated the early games, gave a break back late in the first set in a brain-fart of a game, but recovered and owned the tiebreaker to take a one set lead. And while I'm no expert on tennis, it was clear what was working for Federer; the announcers mentioned it over and over: he was hitting everything to Nadal's backhand, and not letting any shots float; no slices, no lobs, keeping everything low to keep it away from Nadal's vicious forehand. And after a break in the first game of the second set, Roger looked like he was on his way. Until he was broken back at love. And then broken twice more in the set.

Even in the third set, when Federer was at least hitting good shots and playing well, the change in his game was evident. He was not shying away from the forehand anymore. He was still mixing up his shots and coming to net plenty, but giving Rafa the chance to beat him with the forehand much more often. Guess what? Rafa usually answered the bell on the forehand side, with some fantastic passing shots and winners. It was one of the more interesting matches of tennis I've ever watched, as you could see Federer start to press more as he fell behind, trying to hit the perfect shot on most points (and missing more often than hitting it) rather than just staying in the point.

As the match got away from Roger, ESPN's Patrick McEnroe and Darren Cahill could only speculate as to why Federer was not continually pounding it to Nadal's backhand side. That was how Djokovic owned Rafa all of last year, they said. That is when Roger has been the most successful in this match, they said. But McEnroe brought up a point that made the most sense to me. He wondered if because Roger had been so used to being the dominant player for years, that it was too boring to do win in such a way as to play the same shots for an entire four sets. He wondered whether maybe Roger wanted to win his way, not the way that gave him the best chance at winning.

There are a couple reasons Roger Federer is my favorite tennis player. One is that unlike the other tennis players in today's game, he doesn't moan over every shot he misses. He puts on a much more stoic persona while on the court. He is sort of like the rare professional soccer player who doesn't act like he's been shot every time he is met with resistance from an opposing player. It's refreshing after watching all the other players celebrating on marginally important points and gesturing and swearing on the court after they miss any shot, to see Roger seemingly take it all in stride. The other big reason is because Roger can hit every shot there is to hit, and he mixes all of them into his game. The result is him being the best (for awhile), but more importantly for my tastes, his style of play makes for an exciting tennis game. Whereas Nadal and Djokovic play a much safer (and probably smarter) game from the baseline, playing unbelievable defense, ripping returns all day and hitting marvelous shots when they need them, Federer goes for it. He mixes his serve locations and speeds, serves and volleys, hits one-handed backhands down the line or cross court, mixes in drop-shots more than any other player, and comes to the net to mix things up. His game of forcing the issue is more entertaining.

So did McEnroe hit the nail on the head? Did Federer know he had a clear advantage, but feel somehow that a win in which he didn't go after Nadal at all places in the court wouldn't count for as much? Based on what I saw during the match, it seems overwhelmingly possible. Perhaps I am inclined to agree with McEnroe's assessment because I am in total agreement with Federer's sentiment if it's true. Listening to the announcers talk about going to Nadal's backhand incessantly, I couldn't help but think of playing intramural volleyball. In college my friends and I put together a rag-tag group who just wanted to have fun, maybe land some spikes or get a couple blocks to sweeten the deal. We had one guy who had played in high school, and the rest of us were athletic enough to move around the court, but put zero touch on our passes. But we had signed up for the recreation league (as opposed to competitive), so we figured it would be fine.

Invariably, opposing teams would be fielding two members who were high school stars or members of the club volleyball team at Dayton (read: they were really good). Them being there was not too bothersome, but it sure did get annoying when those teams were only interested in setting up their big-hitters for spikes, which those guys would promptly pound into the court or, rarely, our outstretched arms only to bounce halfway across the gym out of play. What was the point of having those guys on a rec team? Were the guys who were our skill level playing with them having any fun being called off the ball so they could watch their good teammates take care of business? I never quite understood. The league was just for fun, so it didn't bother me that we weren't winning, but I couldn't help but wonder what those guys' motivation was. Getting a win in intramurals? In a way that you didn't even do anything to really earn it? Where's the satisfaction?

Of course, at the Australian Open, the rewards of winning are a little sweeter than in the University of Dayton men's Rec-Volleyball league (an intramural champion t-shirt). But in my mind, the principle is the same. Doesn't playing to cause the other player to lose cheapen the win a little bit when compared to winning on your own terms? Isn't there a bit more satisfaction to be had in the latter than the former? For me, yes. For Roger Federer, there just might be as well. This would only serve to make me like him more, but be even more frustrated when he chooses to play to win, but loses.

Indianapolis' Big Decision

The Indianapolis Colts returned to their former misery this season, going 2-14 with Curtis Painter at the helm of things. It was a sad year in Indy, for a franchise that has been as good as any in the NFL for the past decade. Now, Colts ownership has decided to make some changes. It began with the firing of General Manager Bill Polian and then head coach Jim Caldwell, but it does not appear to be ending there. In an interview with the Indianapolis Star Manning said he has no idea what his future holds.

According to the article, Owner Jim Irsay will make the call on whether or not Manning will be staying in Indy. While hearing about this entire Manning saga throughout the football season, I've been surprised to hear that Manning not returning was a possibility, because I believe Manning is the greatest quarterback ever. But, of course, there is more to the issue than that.

Manning has a $28 million option that Colts would have to pick up next year if they choose to keep him around, a much higher amount of money than they would have to pay someone like, Andrew Luck. Perhaps that gives them the ability to go out and get some other much-needed talent at other spots on the field. But any situation in which Manning goes and Luck comes in is about the Colts playing the long game. There is very little debate over which QB would lead Indy to a better record in 2012. The real question Irsay is going to have to answer in making his decision, though, is whether or not Andrew Luck can actually be a franchise quarterback.

If you listen to Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay, the answer is an overwhelming yes. Luck is purported to be the best quarterback prospect since, well, Peyton Manning. Perhaps is because I lived in Ohio and therefore haven't gotten to see much of Luck play, but I haven't bought into his NFL hype just yet. What about Luck screams that he is a can't-miss type of player? I haven't seen it. His numbers in college are good, but not great. His junior season was stronger than his senior season. So why is a guy who may have regressed in college going to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL three years from now? I don't know. More importantly, why do we think he's going to be as good or better than Manning will be three years from now? Or ever?

When the Packers got rid of Brett Favre, I was conflicted out of love for Favre, but ultimately believed it was the right move. It didn't look like he had anything left. (This of course proved to be wrong, as he had a phenomenal season in Minnesota two years later). But at the time, Favre was looking very old and worn out. And the Packers had a guy who they had stolen in the draft (Aaron Rodgers was the 24th overall pick after being the potential first pick, which went to Alex Smith), and had then sat for three years learning. Now the Colts have a guy significantly younger than Favre was at the time (granted, coming off a serious injury), and their other option is a guy who, despite all the hype, is a question mark. The Packers organization had at least seen Rodgers in practice and preseason games; the Colts haven't had that luxury. Is it really worth dropping your franchise's greatest player ever to get a question mark?

What about trading the draft pick? Then using the (supposedly) four picks you would get out of it to build around Manning again? Doesn't that make more sense for getting back into the thick of things in the AFC than getting Luck does?

I won't pretend to have all the right answers. Jim Irsay has done a pretty admirable job in recent years having a competitive team. I just hate investing a team's future on a draft pick of a quarterback, the toughest position to evaluate in all of sports. A guy can have everything you think you need, and just never make the transition (Ryan Leaf). He can look iffy at the workouts and testings, then come in and play extremely well, and still fall apart somewhere down the road (Vince Young). And sometimes, the guy you drafted just to play backup or third string for you for four years turns about to be the guy you needed all along (Tom Brady). I'm all for a franchise moving forward, but not unless it absolutely has to. To me, it doesn't feel like the Colts have to.

Mid-Major Report: 1/23

We're back on track with a Monday edition of the Mid-Major Report. There has been plenty of activity in the polls since last week's edition, and as conference play has kicked in and more teams have played tough home and road games, shakeups have continued. As always, refer to the first report of the season for information on how these rankings are determined.

After last week's edition, I received a request to list the teams that fell out of the rankings because it was difficult to keep track of which teams had lost their spots to newcomers. Well, ask and you shall receive. I'll add a quick blurb before the rankings start listing the teams that are just on the outside looking in, and the teams that dropped out and why. Without further ado, here they are.

Dropped Out: New Mexico (0-2 on the week, losses to UNLV and SDSU), BYU (14-point loss at home to Loyola Marymount)
Outside looking in: Dayton, Weber State, Nevada, George Mason, Southern Miss, Central Florida

10. Iona (15-4, 56th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings)
The Gaels of Iona are back in the 10th position after a week's hiatus. They hiccuped in a MAAC game against Manhattan (losing 75-72), but rebounded with 11 and 20-point home wins this week. The reason for the Gaels beating out other contenders for the final spot was due to their still-impressive offensive numbers. The Gaels are second in the country in scoring, first in assists per game, and fourth in field goal percentage. That allowed the Gaels to beat out Dayton, which only played one game last week.

9. Harvard (16-2, 38 Pomeroy)
Harvard makes its long-awaited return to the rankings as well this week. The Crimson has been hovering just outside the top 10 ever since its Jan. 3 loss at Fordham. After four straight wins however, Harvard is back. Harvard is among the country's best defensive teams, ranked 22nd in Adjusted defense on kenpom.com. The team also has an early season win over Florida State that is looking better and better as the Seminoles have beaten North Carolina and Duke in ACC play. While winning the Ivy League seems almost like an afterthought at the moment, if it weren't to happen because Yale or Penn got hot and went on a run, Harvard looks like it has an outside shot at an at-large bid.

8. Oral Roberts (16-4, 65 Pomeroy)
What's not to like about the Golden Eagles this season? With a nice win over Oakland last week, Oral Roberts extended its winning streak to 11 games. Three of the team's four losses are at West Virginia, at Oklahoma and at Gonzaga. They shoot the ball almost 48 percent from the field as a team, and have the 24th best adjusted offense in the country. The Summit League may not be especially tough, but a 10-0 mark in the league is never a number to sneer at. What's more, the Golden Eagles have already beaten the second place team (South Dakota State, 8-1 in the league) in their first matchup this year. This team is for real.

7. Middle Tennessee (19-2, 30 Pomeroy)
With double-digit wins against Arkansas State and at South Alabama, the train just kept on rolling at Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have now won 11 in a row, and are 8-0 in the Sun Belt conference. Perhaps most impressively, their games last week were good enough to jump 13 spots in the team rankings at kenpom.com from the last Mid-Major report. If the 13 spots were from 250 to 237, it wouldn't be as noteworthy. But 43 to 30? That suggests this team is well worth giving a look. Middle Tennessee is a team worth rooting for the rest of the year, because in a weak year for the Sun Belt conference (only four teams over .500 on the season), it will almost certainly be a one-bid conference. If that team isn't Middle Tennessee, it would be a shame.

6. UNLV (18-3, 17 Pomeroy)
The toughest decision made in these rankings was between the No. 6 and 5 teams for the week. UNLV and Wichita State are sporting extremely similar numbers for the year. Ultimately, UNLV lost out due to a more recent loss (even though it was to San Diego State). Still, sixth right now is nothing to be ashamed of. the Rebels are still sporting one of the top offenses in the country (81.5 points per game, 18.7 assists per game, ninth best adjusted offense) and secured the biggest win of the weak among all our contenders for the Mid-Major report. With a 17-point win over Mountain West contender New Mexico (in which UNLV was in control most of the game), UNLV let us all know that their non-conference performance was no fluke, and they'll be looking for vengeance when SDSU comes to town later in the year.

5. Wichita State (17-3, 9 Pomeroy)
Wichita delivered two more wins (at Northern Iowa, and a 43-point thrashing of Southern Illinois at home) and has now won seven in a row, with its lone conference blemish coming at the hands of Creighton. They have some extremely impressive numbers on kenpom.com, beyond the ninth team-ranking (which was largely helped this week by the 43-point win). The Shockers are 13th best in both adjusted offense and defense, are top-40 in points per game, rebounds per game and field goal percentage, and have a decent strength of schedule at 76th. Unless they fall apart, they would appear to be headed toward an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. And with continued strong play and a possible win at Creighton Feb. 11, they could be looking at a Missouri Valley Conference title.

4. Saint Mary's (19-2, 25 Pomeroy)
It was a relatively easy weak of games for Saint Mary's (versus Pepperdine and at Santa Clara), but the Gaels took care of business as they've been doing all year and have now won nine in a row. Saint Mary's is 8-0 in the West Coast Conference this year, no easy feat. The Gaels are top-35 in points and assists per game and shoot 48 percent from the field. Upcoming is a tough game at BYU, a team that would figure to be hungry after a disappointing loss to Loyola Marymount.

3. Creighton (18-2, 27 Pomeroy)
A change near the top! If you've been a follower of this blog, you'll know that No. 3 is Creighton's lowest ranking so far. And while last week the Blue Jays went 2-0 and avenged their lone Missouri Valley loss of the season (a 77-65 loss to Missouri State, avenged 66-65 at Missouri State), they dropped another spot due to the significant recent achievements of the No. 2 team. No reason to fret for Blue Jays fans, though. Creighton is still top-10 in points per game, assists per game and field goal percentage, and is still in the driver's seat to win the MVC regular season.

2. San Diego State (17-2, 55 Pomeroy)'
The team rankings at kenpom.com have received a great deal of flack this year for rating Wisconsin in the top-five almost all year, even when the Badgers lost three out of four games. Pomeroy addressed the situation saying he was frustrated by it, but that the Badgers represented an outlier whose results have managed to "beat" his system this season. I believe that, which is why I still use his rankings and information in this blog and for these reports. However, I would submit San Diego State as another team that has unfortunately "beaten" (or perhaps more accurately, fallen victim to) Pomeroy's rating system. At 17-2 and 3-0 in the Mountain West with wins over UNLV and at New Mexico, I don't think there is any debate that SDSU is better than the 55th-best team in the country. The Aztecs have been the most impressive of any team on this list in the past two weeks, notching the biggest wins of any team in consecutive weeks. Their numbers still don't jump off the page at you (66th in points per game, 44th in rebounding), but that's exactly why we can't be a slave to those sort of things. For now, the Aztecs are a dominant mid-major team, numbers or not.

1. Murray State (20-0, 42 Pomeroy)
The Racers won two more road games last week, at Morehead State and at SIU-Edwardsville. Both of those teams are bad, but Murray took care of business, as it has done all year long. Now the last unbeaten team in all of college basketball, Murray State did last week what Syracuse couldn't: win on the road. And while Notre Dame is always pretty good at home, Morehead State is always going to be a tough rivarly game for the Racers (They have been the best two teams in the OVC since seemingly forever, although not this year). And for that, the Racers deserve some respect. Here, they'll get it.

What happened at UD Arena Saturday?

The bad news: UD is 1-5 in games that I've been able to watch on TV or in person (not actually bad news anymore)

The good news: that one win came against Xavier in spectacular fashion at UD Arena.

So what happened at UD Arena? Dayton had the best two players on the court at any given time in Kevin Dillard and Matt Kavanaugh. I wrote earlier this week that I felt both Dillard and Kav had a shot at matching up and playing well against this particular Xavier team. I would never have taken it as far as a 16 point, nine assist performance from Dillard accompanied by a 20 point, nine rebound performance from Kavanaugh. Dillard went up against one of the premier guard tandems in the country and came out better than both of them. No matter what matchup Xavier threw at Kavanaugh (slow and strong Kenny Frease, or lighter and quicker Andre Walker, he was assertive and dominant on the offensive end. The performances of those two cannot be lauded enough.

But don't let that take away from everyting else that went on in this game. It was perhaps the finest offensive game I've ever seen UD play (I'm known to use hyperbole quicker than most, but this was no doubt a top-3 performance). Whatever Archie Miller saw in Xavier that he wanted to exploit, whatever motivation Jon Gruden's speech gave to the Flyers, however fired up the players were, they came out and delivered a magnificent performance. The ball movement was incredible, as Dayton put in open layups time and again versus a weary and confused X defense. The shot selection (for the most part) was solid; even with several inadvisable three-point attempts, Dayton shot 50 percent from the field. The players aside from Dillard and Kavanaugh also delivered. Chris Johnson only scored five points, but each of his six rebounds was a ferocious board in traffic, the type of vintage CJ rebounding UD fans had grown accustomed to, but had not seen as much of this season. Off the bench, Josh Parker continued his elevated level of under-control play contributing 16 points on 5-7 shooting, all good shots. Perhaps most surprising of all, Ralph Hill, the sophomore who at the beginning of the year was probably not expecting to see a minute in this game, logged four points, five rebounds (in traffic, against bigger, more season Xavier players) and an assist.

In this game, not only did Dayton dominate more-or-less from the tip and take the lead in the Atlantic 10 standings, but it established a blueprint for how to continue winning games. In this game, the desired product of coach Archie Miller's offense was realized. What's more, it didn't even look that difficult. Yes, UD players were knocking down shots, and that will continue to be the most important aspect of any offense, but today, the shots were easy. How hard is it going to be to replicate the performance against X? Very, especially without a raucous crowd backing them. But how hard is it going to be to deliver the same type of effort and ball movement? In theory, not at all. So far, Miller gets props for his coaching in improving his players. He has coached a group of players to a 14-5 record that it is hard to believe Brian Gregory would have at better than 11-8. Now, however, the test really begins. Will he be able to get them to keep it up? Where will the motivation come from when there is no rivalry game, no home crowd, no Jon Gruden? If Miller has the answer to that question, we could be in for a special month-plus of UD basketball.

No point in worrying about all that for now, though. Today, UD basketball beat Xavier. Easily. They made Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease look bad. Today, that's about as sweet as it gets.

What's going to happen at UD Arena this Saturday?

Well, for starters, Xavier, Tu Holloway, and all the gangsters will be visiting. But hopefully you already knew that. What's going to happen in the game?

Last year when Xavier came to Dayton, partially because of the type of team Dayton had last year and partially due to that being the second game between the two teams, I hoped UD would beat XU just for the sake of having a win over them on the year. UD was 7-6 in the A-10 at the time and it was clear the team wasn't going anywhere. Beating Xavier would have just felt good and assuaged some of the pain of the season, kind of like scoring a garbage-time touchdown to avoid a shutout feels. That didn't happen (it would later in an Atlantic 10 Tournament game, which was sweet), but regardless, that is not the atmosphere this year. Aside from the rivalry between the schools, aside from the rivalry between these players (Chris Johnson will be playing his ninth game against Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease), this game is important because of where the two teams stand at the moment. Despite getting there in two different ways (The Flyers by surprising a bit, the Musketeers by having a disappointing stretch), each team sits at 13-5. They are sitting 1-2 in the Atlantic 10 (Xavier a 4-1, UD 3-1). Most importantly, due to Xaviers midseason struggles, both teams' NCAA Tournament chances are delicate, to say the least. In his most recent Bracketology, Joe Lunardi has four Atlantic 10 teams in the tournament (UD, Xavier, Saint Louis, Temple). All four are 10 or 11 seeds, meaning they are among the last to get in. So while this game is not going to be a win-and-you're-in type situation for either team, it would be a great help as far as positioning goes.

Last year, Dayton lost two five-point games to Xavier and won one by a point. There is no reason to expect that this game will not also be close, but then again, there is no reason to expect anything from this game. Dayton is a completely different team than it was last year, in terms of who its coach is, who its starting five is and the style of basketball it plays. Whereas the Brian Gregory-era Flyers made their mark on playing defense, grabbing rebounds and dunking in transition, this year's Dayton team relies a lot more on shooting well and scoring points. They are not nearly as good on defense. Xavier still relies on Holloway and Mark Lyons to do pretty much everything for them, with other guys taking advantage of their guards' excellent play.

So what's going to happen in this game? A very interesting set of matchups. In last year's matchup, Dayton fans felt they finally had a set of guards good enough to compete with Holloway and Lyons with Juwan Staten, Josh Parker and Paul Williams. That wasn't the case. Holloway especially was still the dominant player in those games in crunch time. This year, Dayton fans feel like they've got another point guard to contend with Holloway. This year, I am among that group. Kevin Dillard has been very good this season, and would definitely appear to be capable of going step-for-step with Holloway. Dillard has had his best games in important ones, and this game qualifies. In addition, Dillard has made the other guards on this team better. Even Josh Parker, who I have disliked as a player since he came to UD, has been much improved this season, especially against Saint Bonaventure, when even in a loss, he kept UD in the game by making good basketball plays, not just having a good shooting night.

What really interests me for this game though is the Kenny Frease-Matt Kavanaugh matchup. In years past Xavier games made Kav's eyes light up because it meant he might get some playing time against the equally inept and slow Frease. This year, though, it's no secret that Kavanaugh has made a giant leap from close-your-eyes-when-he-gets-the-ball to quite serviceable. I have the insane thought that this may be a matchup Kavanaugh can win on the interior.

Beyond that, Dayton has the best forward on either team in Chris Johnson. While he may still be a bit limited from suffering a head injury, CJ has also typically had a knack for strong play in big games.

What's going to happen in this game, though? Well, considering every game I've been able to attend or watch on TV (Miami, Buffalo, Murray State, Seton Hall, St. Bonaventure--seriously, those are the only five I've caught in their entirety. I saw the last five minutes of the Minnesota game, but that was well in-hand) has resulted in a loss, and I'm going to be able to watch the game on TV this Saturday, it will probably be a loss.

I sure hope I'm wrong.

Mid-Major Report: 1/17

Happy belated MLK day, and in honor of Dr. King, how about a mid-major report after a big day of college basketball took place on the holiday. As always, refer to the first report of the season to get an idea of how I come up with my rankings.

This week features even more of a shakeup from last week's rankings. While the top has remained the same, by virtue of some team's in the top 10 playing each other and others having to play rough games on the road or just tough conference games in general, we had more teams drop out, and a couple new faces. Right, on to the show.

10. Oral Roberts (16-4, 58th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Congrats to the Golden Eagles for making the cut for the first time, as a nine-game winning streak has vaulted them into the 10th spot. Oral Roberts' numbers won't wow you (93rd in scoring, 95th in assists, 40th in field-goal percentage), but their adjusted offensive numbers at kenpom.com are 23rd best in the country, and they have done a ton of work on the road. After losing two of four earlier in the season (at Oklahoma and Gonzaga), Roberts hasn't lost, drubbing (shorthanded) Xavier in Cincy, and reeling off seven straight conference wins, five of which came on the road. Sure, Summit League competition isn't the best, but Oral Roberts has still put together quite a resume recently.

9. Brigham Young (15-4, 20 Pomeroy)
BYU returns to the rankings in glorious fashion, and primed to move up the list as it hits the easier part of its schedule. The Cougars have suffered four losses on the season, three of which were to Wisconsin, Baylor and Saint Mary's. Not too shabby. The problem? BYU hasn't put together a win-streak of more than four games. Sitting a four-gamer right now, the Cougars are primed to make a move without another key game coming for another 11 days. Then, they'll have a key rematch with Saint Mary's. It is worth noting that the Cougars are 11th in points per game, 14th in rebounds, 3rd in assists and 15th in field goal percentage. They are also extremely high in Pomeroy's rating system, mostly due to the fact that 14 of their 15 wins have been by more than 10 points.

8. Middle Tennessee (17-2, 43 Pomeroy)
Another week, another two wins for the Blue Raiders, who now haven't lost since December 7. With two road wins by double-digit margins, the Raiders even impressed Pomeroy's system, vaulting 14 spots from their positioning at the time of last week's ranking. Even more important though, they have stayed strong enough to vault up two spots in my mid-major report, finally vacating that 10th position. Unfortunately, it won't get any easier to stick around in these rankings, where losses can be hugely detrimental (just ask Iona, Wyoming and Southern Miss). Any loss in the Sun Belt would put the Raiders in a precarious position. Luckily, they have a chance to really prove themselves coming up, with a game at Vanderbilt Jan. 28. The Commodores have disappointed this season (as always) and might be bad enough for a Blue Raiders upset. If that happens, could Middle Tennessee be looking at an outside shot for an at-large bid. Accompanied with continued consistency in the Sun Belt, and I'd say yes.

7. UNLV (16-3, 19 Pomeroy)
Remember those teams who you should ask about losing being detrimental in this poll? Add UNLV to the list. The Rebels drop four spots this week, despite losing by just two points at San Diego State. That's probably a game they shouldn't be expected to win. But still, the loss is worse than what any of the top six for this week suffered. The Rebels are undoubtedly one of the finer mid-major teams in the country, and as the brutal Mountain West schedule plays out, I'm confident (as I'm sure Ken Pomeroy would be, with his system rating them 19th) that they will show that. They are still one of the top teams in the country in terms of scoring per game and Adjusted Offense. When the two match up well, that means a team is pretty damn good on offense. In all likelihood, they'll be back in the top five before long.

6. Wichita State (15-3, 15 Pomeroy)
Once again, the Shockers are Ken Pomeroy's most-loved team on the list. Their rating of 15 is shockingly high, aided this week by a 37-point destruction of Missouri Valley Conference bottom-dweller Bradley. Still, it can't be overlooked that Wichita State is top-25 in the country in terms of Adjusted offense and defense. A team that good on both sides of the ball is going to be worth paying some attention. Coming up tomorrow is a key game (for both teams) at Northern Iowa. If the Shockers intend to compete for a MVC title or for a spot in this poll, it's the type of game they'll have to be able to win.

5. New Mexico (15-2, 18 Pomeroy)
I've been somewhat hesitant to take the Lobos seriously. They typically field a strong team, but this year their strength of schedule (278th non-conference) was hard to ignore. But now New Mexico has won 13 in a row; its last loss was Nov. 24. That is pretty ridiculous. And with it's most recent win coming at a 14-3 Wyoming team, it's time to believe New Mexico is the real deal. Unfortunately for the Lobos, in the words of Tallahassee, it's time to nut up or shut up. Next week features games versus San Diego State and at UNLV. Yikes. New Mexico's scheduling in the Mountain West this year turned out to be brutal. They play Wyoming, SDSU and UNLV (the other top three teams in the conference) in three consecutive games twice. The good news, though? Next week, we'll know for sure what the Lobos are all about.

4. Saint Mary's (17-2, 22 Pomeroy)
It seemed unfair to leave Saint Mary's stuck in the fourth slot after two more wins, including a destruction of Gonzaga at home. But that is where the Gaels will stay for now, because everybody above them was pretty good as well. The Gaels' adjusted offense is rated 10th best in the country, and they score just below 77 points a game. They are also still one of the top teams for sharing the ball, averaging 17.5 assists per game, good for seventh. Meanwhile, point guard Matthew Dellavedova has stepped up his offensive game significantly. Previously more of a distributor and deferrer-to-teammates (new term), Dellavedova had a four-game stretch of scoring 16 or more points, including 27 against San Francisco and 26 against Gonzaga. If that kind of production keeps up, the Gaels are on another level of scary.

3. San Diego State (15-2, 69 Pomeroy)
As the third team in this poll, San Diego State's 69th rating at kenpom jumps out at you immediately. That is mostly due to weaker competition and close results in games. But winning is winning, and that's exactly what SDSU did against UNLV in the biggest game it's had this year. The Aztecs, who haven't lost since Nov. 30, have enjoyed most of their recent success at home. We'll see if their average offensive and defense numbers will hold up on the road soon enough, though, as SDSU plays three of its next four on the road, including at New Mexico and at Wyoming.

2. Creighton (16-2, 32 Pomeroy)
And now you know the next two. There isn't a whole lot to say about the Blue Jays that will sound different. They won two more games last week, at Illinois State (decent) and against Southern Illinois (not very good). They've now won six in a row. They are rated sixth in both points-per-game (82.7) and adjusted offense. They are second in the nation in assists and still first in the nation in field goal percentage. They also have one of the best players in the country on their roster.

1. Murray State (18-0, 38 Pomeroy)
Similar to Creighton, there isn't much new to report about the Racers. They dropped slightly from last week's Pomeroy positioning, due to relatively close games at home against some pretty weak competition. For now, however, that doesn't matter. The Racers are 18-0, and they're showing no signs of backing down. They still have well-above-average offensive and defensive numbers. With two road games next week, perhaps the Racers will get tested. But so far, so good.

NFL Divisional Playoffs. Wheeling, dealing and concealing

After last week's 2-0 in the NFL playoffs, including just about nailing the Saints-Lions score, I'm feeling good. So I'm probably due for a 1-3 spot this weekend, but here come some picks anyway...

Saints at 49ers
Bill Barnwell of Grantland.com made a pretty strong case as to why this game is going to be closer than many people think, and he even picked San Francisco to come out on top in the game. But as convincing as the numbers Barnwell displayed are, I'm not buying into them. The 49ers are going to be relying on Alex Smith to win them this game. Alex Smith, with no postseason experience, who until this year had been bad (and then was merely serviceable in 2011). Nah, I'll go with Drew Brees, despite him and the Saints offense being significantly worse on the road than at home. I know, I know, the Saints blew it last year against the Seahawks in a similar situation: favored team on the road. But this Saints group is rolling way better than last year's.
Saints 30-49ers 17

Broncos at Patriots
Last week even though I didn't write about it, I picked the Steelers to beat the Broncos, because I figured their defense was good enough to hold the Broncos under 10 points, and even their depleted offense would be good enough to score in double digits. Obviously, most of that was incorrect. The Broncos turned out to have an excellent offensive game plan, the Steelers defense was porous, and they couldn't overcome their injuries. This week, though, it is the Broncos who are missing more players, against a team that has already beaten them 41-23. Neither Brian Dawkins nor Eric Decker will be playing Saturday night for the Broncos, which means Denver will be without one of its key players on both sides of the ball. Add that to the fact that this is being played in Foxborough, where the Patriots seldom lose, in what will be cold weather, and it's just too tough to make the call that the Broncos will do it again.
Patriots 35-Broncos 17

Texans at Ravens
A month and a half ago I wrote the Ravens were my end-of-season Super Bowl pick, because when they play in important games and play hard, they are dominant. And while we still haven't seen the Ravens go up against one of the NFL's great offenses from this year, there's no reason to back off them this week. Everyone in Baltimore is healthy, and they'll be playing against a team in Houston that is anything but healthy. Andre Johnson still isn't 100 percent, Mario Williams is gone and, oh yeah, TJ Yates is their starting quarterback. This one seems too good to be true.
Ravens 31-Texans 14

Giants at Packers
And now for the game I want to write nothing about, because I feel like no matter how I write it, I will be jinxing/correctly dooming the Packers into a loss. When I think about this game, I'm terrified. Not because this game is shaping up to be a repeat of 2007 for the Giants (play the best team late the in regular season, barely lose, tear it up after that point, meet the Packers in the playoffs, beat them in 2007). Really, I'm terrified because one's favorite team can always go out in the blink of an eye in the NFL playoffs. There is no series to come back in. And any team can put together a solid performance. But really, the Packers should win this game. Greg Jennings is back, the other receivers were excellent in his absence, and I think James Starks and Ryan Grant are primed to deliver 40-ish rushing yards apiece, which is plenty to ensure that the Packers' offense is having a good day.
Packers 34-Giants 21

Mid-Major Report: 1/11

I apologize for the irregularity as to what day of the week these rankings are coming out. The goal is to have it on each Monday, but it falls entirely on what my work schedule for the week ends up looking like. That being said, it should never be later than a Wednesday (which is today).

As always, refer back to the first report of the season for guidelines on how I make my decisions.

First, a couple notes on this week's rankings:
1. I set out in the first report that I would be including some of the larger non-BCS leagues like the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West in my poll. Those teams have advantages over teams from the tiny conferences like the SWAC or MAAC, certainly, but they are still playing with rosters empty of McDonald's All-Americans and one-and-done type players. That being said, the point of this list is also to raise awareness about some teams that maybe a casual fan hasn't heard of. It's the type of thing that could be helpful picking an 8/9 game when you're filling out your NCAA bracket in March, or just to give you a little extra knowledge. And with that being the most important aspect to me, if the Mountain West continues its brutalization of this poll (three teams in last week, four this week), I will have to reassess whether or not I use that conference in my rankings anymore. Typically, the Mountain West has one or two teams doing very well, and others trying to put together a strong enough resume to get a bid in the tournament. The conference often has a third or fourth team on the bubble for the NCAAs. It is atypical, however for any conference, let alone the Mountain West, to have four teams with records of 14-2 or better. In fact, the Mountain West is the only conference in the country that can boast such a stat (the Big Ten (now Twelve) falls just short). That is why I'm confident (hopeful?) as the teams begin to play each other and hit a tougher schedule in general (Ahem, Wyoming and New Mexico), their records will normalize and it will make room for some of the other teams deserving of recognition.

2. Three teams fell out of the standings from being ranked last week: Saint Louis, Virginia Commonwealth and Harvard. You'll notice a similarity between all these teams: they lost last week. For VCU and Saint Louis, who were both in the bottom half of the poll, a loss is always going to hurt a team's chances of sticking around (VCU's two losses made it an easy decision). Perhaps for Harvard, though, dropping from fourth to nonexistent seems a bit harsh. Unfortunately for the Crimson, it had to happen. They lost at Fordham, a team that is by no means as bad as it has been the past few years, but is still just 7-8 on the season. And during the same week, tons of teams (unranked and ranked below Harvard in last week's poll) went on the road and won games against competition equal to or greater than Harvard. Keep in mind: it's tough to be in the top 10 of this poll. Using the larger mid-major conferences means there are a ton of deserving teams, and losses are always going to be hugely detrimental.

3. You may notice there are 11 teams in this week's poll. That's not a mistake. Call me a coward if you like, but I didn't have the heart to say one of the bottom four teams didn't deserve to be in. Last week's No. 10 team, Middle Tennessee, has probably the weakest resume of the group, but they were ranked last week, and went 2-0 since to improve to 15-2. They've now won seven in a row. Sorry, but the Blue Raiders deserve to stick around. Right, on to the rankings.

10. Middle Tennessee (15-2, 57 in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings) and Iona (13-3, 42 Pomeroy)
You just read the argument for Middle Tennessee: 15-2, seven in a row, undefeated in the conference and they still are one of the best shooting teams in the country; 49.5 percent on the year, good for 10th best. As far as Iona, they make the list because they are now 5-0 in the MAAC, and have won six of seven. Now that the Gaels have ended a long road trip (eight straight games away from home), they're showing that they're actually pretty good. Playing on the road is tougher than being at home. Iona could have taken an easier route and would probably be 15-1 right now. But they didn't, so they're 13-3. After a strong week of play, they'll get the credit they deserve, at least here. O yeah, Iona scores the second-most points in the country (85.9 a game), dishes out the most assists (20.2) and shoots it even better than their 10th-ranked compatriots (50.4 percent from the field).

9. Wichita State (13-3, 22 Pomeroy)
A 3-0 week with wins over Evansville, Southern Illinois and Illinois State has the Shockers back into the top 10 after a week's hiatus. They have rebounded well from the loss to Creighton, but will need to play at a higher level in the coming weeks to stay afloat in the Missouri Valley Conference, probably the second best non-BCS league in the country this year (competing with the A-10 right now for that spot). They are liked very much by Ken Pomeroy's rankings, with a good strength of schedule, and top-30 Adjusted-offense and defense.

8. Wyoming (14-2, 69 Pomeroy)
I wouldn't be surprised if this is the Cowboys' one and only appearance in the top-10 this year. They've played an uber-weak schedule so far (341 according to Pomeroy!), but that will change. They will see plenty of tough games in the upcoming conference schedule, starting with New Mexico this week. Wyoming is not especially impressive in any statistical category, but it is 14-2 on the season and has won 11 of its last 12 games. That is enough to earn them a spot at No. 8.

7. Southern Mississippi (15-2, 71 Pomeroy)
Another team that Ken Pomeroy's rankings are not crazy about, Southern Miss comes in at No. 7 mostly on the strength of its 11-game winning streak. The team is best in the Conference USA at the moment, and amidst a 2-0 week beat one of its top contenders, Tulane, on the road Jan. 7. If it wasn't obvious already, I'm impressed by road wins, especially in important games. For now, the Golden Eagles are hot, and they deserve a little recognition.

6. New Mexico (14-2, 23 Pomeroy)
Perhaps surprisingly, New Mexico is extremely high in Ken Pomeroy's rankings (coming a spot behind Wichita State) despite their horrific schedule strength. In the non-conference, the Lobos' opponents were good enough for 277th best, but their 15th best Adjusted-defense rating is going a long way. New Mexico also averages 17.3 assists-per-game, good for 10th in the country. Mid-majors that share the ball are always attractive to me, because they often don't have reliable 20-25 point scoring stars like some of the power-six teams. High assist numbers will generally mean the team is sound at moving the ball and therefore getting good looks--an indication that their success on offense stands a better chance of sustaining.

5. San Diego State (14-2, 74 Pomeroy)
I was a bit shocked to see the Aztecs had dropped 25 spots in Ken Pomeroy's ratings despite not losing a game, but then I saw their opponents last week. San Diego State beat up on the Hawks San Diego Christian (not a D-1 team) and then only managed to beat 0-16 Chicago State by eight points at home. (Chi-St. ranked 339 out of 345 by Pomeroy's numbers, meaning they might as well not be D-1 either). With an already pretty weak schedule, it is less surprising to see the steep decline in their computer ranking. The weak schedule, while it did not cause SDSU to drop, still hurt the team, as they were leapfrogged by the next team on the list. The Aztecs will have plenty of time to make it up, however, with a huge matchup with UNLV looming this weekend.

4. Saint Mary's (15-2, 24 Pomeroy)
"Gaels" becomes the first nickname to strike twice in the same week as Saint Mary's stayed strong this week and improved to 15-2 with a 2-0 performance. These Gaels have now won five in a row, and 13 of 14, with the one loss coming to still-undefeated Baylor. Not too shabby. They another team that shares the ball well, with 17.3 assists per game (ninth in the nation), and their Adjusted-offensive rating is 11th-best in Pomeroy's system. Saint Mary's jumped SDSU this week because their two wins (at San Diego and vs. San Francisco), while not especially impressive, are still significantly stronger than the two recorded by the Aztecs.

3. UNLV (16-2, 17 Pomeroy)
It gets boring from here on out in the poll if you've read before. None of last week's top-three did enough (or perhaps its better to say none of the three really did anything of note) to make any waves. In the next week, that should change. For now, however, Nevada Las-Vegas will have to stay content with being the highest-ranked Ken Pomeroy team to make the rankings. According to his ranking,, their AP poll rank, as well as UNLV's points, rebounds and assists-per-game averages, it is not a stretch to say they are the best mid-major team in the country. They'll have a chance to prove it this weekend, and the rest of the season against what looks to be a very tough Mountain West.

2. Creighton (14-2, 35 Pomeroy)
Creighton went 3-0 over the past week, even with a win over a pretty good Northern Iowa team. They've now won four in a row, and look like the class of the MVC with wins over the two teams that figure to be the Blue Jays' stiffest competition in the conference (Wichita and N. Iowa). They also are a top-10 scoring team in the country (81.9 ppg), second-best in assists 19.9 and top the nation in field goal percentage at the moment, shooting 51.1 percent from the field. With all that though, their four-game win streak is only one-fourth as long as the No. 1 team, meaning Creighton will have to live with No. 2 for another week.

1. Murray State (16-0, 31 Pomeroy)
Murray State beat Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay in the past week to improve to a perfect 16-0. Neither of those wins exactly jumps off the page at you, but the Racers earned their No. 1 spot by being undefeated and it's going to take more than wins over Northern Iowa or Cal-State Bakersfield in order to dethrone the Racers. The Racers' wins (and probably eventually losses) will continue to look weak by virtue of the conference they play in. Keep in mind that according to Pomeroy, they played the 105th-toughest non-conference schedule in the country. Of the teams in this week's poll, only UNLV (96th) and Iona (43rd) had tougher-rated non-conference schedules. And Murray State was the only team to run the table in that span. The Racers have earned every bit of this ranking.

Kudos to Katz

In ESPN.com's Weekly Watch, Andy Katz honored Dayton as his "Team of the Week." It was a cool (albeit meaningless) honor for the Flyers to receive, if for no other reason than to give them a little bit of exposure and credit for what they've accomplished in their last couple games. But Katz really deserves credit for knowing not to buy into Dayton just yet.

"A strong start to the A-10 should be a signal that the Flyers are in the A-10 title chase for the long haul, but they still need to show some consistency." That's what Katz wrote of the Flyers and he is exactly right. Beating Saint Louis and Temple to start 2-0 means UD has notched wins in two of its six toughest Atlantic 10 tests, as well as knocked those two teams down. But in the past, that has rarely signified a trend for the foreseeable future in Dayton. They get hot and lose it just as quickly.

My favorite sentence from Katz on UD, though is the one coming after the quote above: "Wednesday's game at St. Bonaventure is the type that UD has dropped in the past." Yup. Sorta like losing by 29 at home to Buffalo earlier this year. And a quick couple of losses at the Bonnies and against LaSalle would bring UD right back to square one. It's time to stop that sort of nonsense.

Enjoy the national championship game (let's hope it's possible to tonight).

Day 1 NFL Playoffs

Didn't have much on my mind today, so how bout a couple quick picks for the opening day of the NFL playoffs?

Bengals at Texans
The Bengals blew a winnable game at home against Houston in the TJ Yates era during the regular season, 20-19. Obviously playing in Houston would figure to give the Texans a bigger advantage in the second matchup of the year between these two teams. But really, I'm thinking this one will come down to quarterback play. Luckily for the Texans, Cincy is starting rookie Andy Dalton, who, despite having an excellent first season in the league, is still a rookie. And while that holds true for Yates as well, Houston is going to be relying a whole lot less on his play than Cincy will be relying on Dalton's. That's because Houston's offensive line and Arian Foster are a little bit better than Cincinnati's and Cedric Benson. Houston sweeps the Bengals on the year, and moves on to an inevitable disappointing loss in the divisional round next week. The Bungals head home earlier than they would have liked, but have a plenty to look forward to with a Steelers team looking like it may have aged just a bit too much this season.
Texans 24-Bengals 16

Lions at Saints
This is being billed as a shootout game in the making, and one that the Lions might be able to steal if they stick around. It'll be a shootout alright, but not one the Lions will have a chance of winning. New Orleans is really good. The way I see it, they are even favorites with Green Bay to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Sorry San Francisco, Detroit, Atlanta and New York; you guys just aren't on the same level right now. Of course, in the playoffs, teams get hot (Packers last year, Giants in 2007) or play one great game and pull off an upset (Seattle last year). But of the four teams in the NFC that will be trying to pull an upset, Detroit seems the least likely to get hot to me. I think we've seen their best this year already, when they were 5-0. But really, even then, they were barely winning games that they had fallen behind by big margins. There won't be any of that happening against New Orleans.
Saints 42-Lions 24

UD vs. St. Louis

8:35 p.m.: It's 19-14 St. Louis. Nothing will go in basket for us.

8:42 p.m.: We're fighting back. 26-23. They are 9-9 at foul line.

8:46 p.m.: Wow we're up 28-26. Great defense. We're 5-5 from foul line.

8:53 p.m.: Oops. Spoke to (sic.) soon. 36-28, St. L at half. 10 unanswered points.

9:38 p.m.: UD still fighting. We're down 54-51.

10:06 p.m.: 64 all. We're going to it.

10:06 p.m.: That's OT

10:24 p.m.: We win 79-72. Unbelievable.

Those are the series of texts I received from my mom (who attended the game) about the Dayton-St. Louis matchup while I was at work last night. And while plenty of things were going through my mind while receiving those texts ("Why don't you text full sentences?"; "I knew this would happen."; "What is with your obsession with free throws, Mom?") The main thing I was thinking up until the last text went something along the lines of, "Guess they've played well so far. Now's when they'll start to fall apart."

But you know what? UD didn't fall apart. They gave up a prayer of a three to send the game to overtime, and didn't let it bother them. Matt Kavanaugh was in foul trouble all game it would seem (I'm basing this off the box score, in which he has five fouls and had played 16 minutes to Luke Fabrizius' 32), and Dayton persevered. Then, they turned in about as good an overtime performance as a team can: They took the lead, and protected it late at the foul line, going 10-12 in the five extra minutes alone.

I really can't give much analysis of the game; The only information I have is the Dayton Daily News game story, the box score, and my mom's impressions from the game (hint: they focus almost solely on how great UD was from the foul line). But so far this season, UD has played three impressive games: against Minnesota in the Old Spice Classic, and then at home versus Alabama and now St. Louis. In the Alabama game, UD shot the lights out and had Bama's best big man in foul trouble. Those were the two biggest reasons they looked so good. The games against Minnesota and St. Louis have one big similarity: Kevin Dillard was the best player on the court. Against the Gophers, Dillard recorded 19 points, 10 assists and seven steals, and was in complete control of the game. Versus the Billikens, I can't say for sure if he was in complete control because I wasn't there (he probably wasn't to the same degree; he had five turnovers), but Dillard had 18 points, 10 assists, a steal and a block. He was extremely good.

Guard play has always been lauded as the most important aspect of college basketball. I've never bought into that entirely, because of course teams with good guards are going to be better than teams with bad guards. Just like teams with good forwards and centers are going to be better than teams with bad forwards and centers. But with UD this season, we may be seeing the formula for the team's success. When Dillard plays well, he is taking lots of pressure off his teammates to create, and as a result players like Paul Williams and Chris Johnson find it easier to score. When London Warren and Rob Lowery were running the show, UD could get by without great point guard play, because it had Marcus Johnson, Chris Johnson and Chris Wright to pick up the slack. When Brian Roberts was in control, he couldn't pick up the slack enough for his mediocre teammates. This season, I'm suspecting if Dillard picks it up just enough, this team goes up to another level.

The question now becomes, how often is that going to happen? Against Murray State, Dillard scored eight, had four assists and five turnovers. He had eight and four again verus Florida International. Against Seton Hall, he went 5-14 from the floor en route to 14 points, four assists and three turnovers. None of those games are going to get it done. And I understand 18 and 10 is not a realistic expectation for the rest of the season. But 14/15 points, five assists and two turnovers? That would work. Is that too much to ask.

We'll find out soon. UD heads to Temple and St. Bonaventure its next two games.

Mid-Major Report: 1/3

It's been a little over three weeks since the last mid-major report, but not a whole lot of college basketball was played during that time. For that reason, I decided to wait so we could actually get an idea of which mid-majors have improved, which have dropped off and which have stayed strong. Check out the initial report from this year for an idea of how I come up with these rankings. First, a quick disclaimer. Despite playing well since the last poll, Wichita State has dropped out of the rankings. Unfortunately for the Shocker, they lost their most recent game against. Granted, it was against Creighton, one of the best mid-majors in the country, but they lost at home. Since I'm including conferences like the Mountain West (unbelievably good right now) in my poll, you have to stay hot to stay in. Other teams have earned the right more recently, so they passed Wichita State. Also, despite the lobbying from my readership, Iona will not be making the top 10 in this edition. The Gaels have played about as brutal a schedule as anyone in the country, including a run of eight(!) straight road games. Unfortunately, they lost a couple of those (which of course any team in the country would do during eight in a row). Know that they're on our radar, though. Right, on to the top 10.

10. Middle Tennessee (13-2, 58 in Ken Pomeroy team ratings)
The Blue Raiders make their first appearance in the poll on the strength of winning five in a row, and nine of ten. Neither of their losses this season are bad (a double-OT loss to Belmont, which they've since avenged, and an away loss to a not-bad UAB team). The Raiders have a below average schedule strength according to Pomeroy (not surprising), but have an above-average offense both in terms of points-per-game (75.2) and Pomeroy's Pythagorean offensive-rating. What pushes them over the top and into the poll this week is their impressive shooting. Middle Tennessee is shooting 51.2 percent from the field this year, good for second in the country. If they keep shooting like that, expect to see them around for the rest of the season.

9. Saint Louis (12-2, 14 Pomeroy)
The Billikens drop off a bit since our last ranking due to losing their last game. It wasn't a bad enough loss (to New Mexico, read further for more on them) to knock them out of the rankings altogether. The Billikens are still the best team in the A-10 at the moment, and are still filled with depth and experience. Ken Pomeroy's calculations love them for reasons I can't quite understand (his system is supposed to be predictive, so if you buy that, St. Louis would beat every other team on this list as well as UConn). As far as I'm concerned, in the one tough game (also the only road game) since the last poll, St. Louis failed. That's got to mean they drop.

8. Virginia Commonwealth (11-3, 39 Pomeroy)
Ram-Man will be happy to see VCU sneaking into the poll this time around. The Rams have not lost since a Nov. 27 setback at Alabama, a loss that dropped them to 3-3. Those eight games haven't been cake-city either, with wins over Richmond and now three straight road games included in the mix. Now the Rams have to prove themselves in the conference season. There are other very good teams in the CAA (Georgia State and George Mason), and if VCU is able to keep its run going, they will be here to stay.

7. New Mexico (12-2, 23 Pomeroy)
New Mexico becomes the third team to grace the list from being unranked last time on the strength of a 10-game winning streak. The only problem with that streak is that it hasn't come against the most impressive competition. The Lobos have played eight of 10 games at home, with road wins over USC (44-41...yikes) and New Mexico State. The good news for New Mexico? They stand to prove themselves in the coming weeks as Mountain West Conference play will begin. The bad news? That means things will get a whole lot tougher for New Mexico.

6. Saint Mary's (13-2, 15 Pomeroy)
While most teams took it easy over the holiday season, Saint Mary's put a whole lot of work in. Since the last report (which the Gaels just missed out on), Saint Mary's has gone 8-1, with a loss to Baylor at a neutral site being the lone blemish. Pretty impressive. And they still have dominant wins over Northern Iowa and BYU to show for their work so far. The Gaels will have to stay hot to stick around, because they won't have many tough games the rest of the way--just two against Gonzaga and one more at BYU. But given their recent play, that shouldn't be too difficult.

5. San Diego State (12-2, 49 Pomeroy)
Team No. 2 from the Mountain West is the Aztecs from SDSU. They drop back a spot from last week's poll despite not having lost a game in that stretch. Why, you ask? Because the Aztecs have only played three games since the last poll, against UC-Riverside, Elon and Redlands. All at home. That's about as week a three-game stretch as I could have imagined. Actually, it's probably worst than I could have come up with, because I didn't know Redlands existed. Still, SDSU has put together an impressive resume this season, which is amazing given what they've lost from last year.

4. Harvard (12-1, 34 Pomeroy)
The Crimson also drop a couple spots from the last time. Similar to San Diego State, they have only played four games since the last poll. Unlike SDSU, though, Harvard at least did something worthwhile, going 2-0 on the road against Boston U and Boston College. Still, the Ivy Leaguers have to drop because they were simply out-achieved by the next three teams on the list. If they keep winning, they will remain a top-five team. They've had an excellent year so far, and have one of the best defenses in the country. On Crimson!

3. UNLV (15-2, 20 Pomeroy)
The Rebels are this week's big movers as a result of a 5-0 record since the last poll, including a 16-point win over Illinois on a neutral court. They complete the Mountain West's ownership of this poll due to their 80.8 points-per-game (12th in the country), 18.8 assists per game (fourth) and 48.1 field-goal percentage (36th), and 54th strongest schedule in the country in Pomeroy's ratings. If they can keep it going strong during conference play, UNLV may be headed for a very special season.

2. Creighton (11-2, 36 Pomeroy)
The Blue-Jays relinquish the top spot despite a 4-1 record since the last poll due to a head-scratching loss to Missouri State at home (now making both of Creighton's losses confusing ones). That loss had the Blue Jays looking at a steeper drop in the rankings, but they turned things right back around with a big-time win at Wichita State. That was an important and impressive W for the Blue Jays to get. Not to mention they still have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 83.1 points-per-game with the eighth-best Adjusted-Offense score in Pomeroy's ratings.

1. Murray State (14-0, 31 Pomeroy)
This was really an easy pick. Take away all the ratings, per-game averages and star players. Scroll back through Nos. 10-2 and look at the loss column. You'll notice all of them have at least one. And aside from Harvard, all of them have at least two. Murray State has zero. Maybe they haven't played as tough a schedule as UNLV, but they've won 14 in a row, with five of them coming in true road games. And winning when you haven't lost yet gets tougher and tougher. I don't want to take out the excitement from reading these reports in the future, but unless something drastic happens, so long as Murray State keeps winning, they'll stay atop this list.

Making it worth watching

This post is going to have absolutely nothing to do with sports, but it is something I walked away from feeling very strongly about, and wanted to spit out in writing, because I'm usually more articulate that way.

I love the Harry Potter books. I would say the fourth and seventh books are my two favorite of all time. I haven't read everything under the sun, but still a pretty significant amount, so this is saying something. When I read those books, I am completely immersed; I stay up longer at night to get further along and find myself emoting involuntarily in accordance with what's happening in the story at the time. This, of course, is a quality that a reader will find in any great book--that disappearance of self into another world.

For many people, including myself, movies can provide a similar escape. Whereas a book's triumph is in allowing our imaginations to run completely free, with just words to guide us, a movie's magic comes from its ability to bring those imaginations to life. It was a world we thought about in the book, and in a movie it comes that much closer to being one in which we can walk around.

It is for this reason that I despise the "Harry Potter" movies. Not because the movies don't match up to the books and skip a bunch of scenes; that matters to me very little. I don't like the HP movies because they never came close to taking me to the world Harry Potter lived in. Sure, I got to see some stunning visual interpretations of what Hogwarts and Gringotts could look like. But there is more to a world than just the scenery. Namely, the characters. Harry Potter the book series is rife with characters that you either love or you hate. They are almost all well-developed, interesting and engaging. The "Harry Potter" movies had exactly one character I loved or hated because of who the actual character was: Severus Snape. About all the others, I cared very little, because I didn't feel like I knew them at all. In the books, I wanted to date Ginny Weasley from book three on. She just seemed like the coolest girl on the planet. Who wouldn't want to get with her? In the movies, though? Ginny might as well not have been there. In fact, the movies stand to gain a lot from eliminating every scene with Ginny being worthless in them (read: every scene with Ginny).

While reading the books I cried, laughed, or felt myself breathing heavy in anticipation all the time. During the movies? Not so much. Maybe a chuckle or two at a Fred and George gag, but that's it. And I know that most of the world doesn't feel this way. Somehow, every HP movie is certified fresh at Rotten Tomatoes (the lowest score going to the fifth movie, with a not-bad-at-all 78 percent). As each one has received pristine reviews, culminated by movie 7.2's astounding 96 percent, I've tried to be introspective and see if I was looking at those movies in a fair light. But I can't even get through the entirety of one of those movies on ABC Family anymore. What am I missing in those movies that everyone else is seeing (and loving)?

Well, here's more proof. I watched The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo yesterday, a movie I was excited about because it was based on a book I enjoyed. Now, Stieg Larsson's mystery thriller (sorta) is not in the same discussion as HP as far as all-time great fiction books are concerned. But it was very enjoyable.

It's movie though? The reverse. Well-directed, excellent acting, looks great, the whole nine yards. How hard was that? The most amazing part though? Dragon Tattoo, the first in a trilogy written by Larsson, really doesn't feature much action. It is mostly dialogue and investigation. Which should mean right off the bat that any Harry Potter movie is going to have an advantage for sheer excitement value. But in the end, that just wasn't the case. And it's not even close.

Maybe you're not like me. Maybe you're one of the people I shook my head at when you stood up and cheered Molly Weasley on as she beat Bellatrix Lestrange in HP 7.2. Maybe you thought as Molly hollered "You bitch!" at Bellatrix, then deflected four spells from Lestrange only to cast a couple of her own and win (the same way every duel went in this movie, by the way), you thought it was great drama and an achievement in film. But for crying out loud, why does everyone else feel the same way as you do? In America we like to show we have great taste in films by liking decent, artsy films way more than we should ("Little Miss Sunshine") and bringing down big-budget blockbusters because they gained a lot from having money and special effects, not true cinema ("Avatar"). Why is this case the opposite. Is it just because the name of the movies start with "Harry Potter"?

Sheesh. I'll climb back off the soapbox for now. But seriously, watch the HP movies again and try to figure out why you like them so much. Then watch Rooney Mara and Daniel Craig, or Josh Brolin and Javier Bardem, or even Jeff Goldblum and Sam Neill. Is the HP book adaptation really a better movie than any of the other ones? If you say yes, I'll take another look, and try to find what I'm missing. But I'm guessing if you're really honest with yourself, you'll say no.

UD basketball 2012

2011 finished with disaster for the UD basketball team. Sure, it won against Ole Miss 62-50 and closed out a pretty successful (two hiccups away from being really successful, but o well) non-conference season on a high note, but they lost Josh Benson for the year with an ACL tear. It cannot be stressed enough how bad this injury will be for UD. Dayton was already an incredibly thin team with all the departures and decommitments from last year, but now they will be relying on Alex Gavrilovic and Matt Kavanaugh to shoulder the entirety of the burden inside--on offense and defense. I'm hoping the gravity of that sentence is hitting you hard right now, because I can't think of anything to give as a comparison for a little perspective. It's not good, to make the understatement of the (young) year. And what happens if one or both of those guys get in foul trouble? Well, Luke Fabrizius or Devin Oliver is probably going to have to play defense in the paint, and that's not going to be fun to watch, even if you hate UD basketball. Any human would just feel bad for a guy thrown into a horrible situation like that. But alas, them's the brakes in college basketball. Coaches move, players transfer, injuries happen. This UD has dealt with plenty of adversity through the offseason and this season, so they're a good group to deal with a little more.

Unfortunately, UD's first game of the conference season is coming against the team with the best record in the conference, and a team that I would expect to be playing in the NCAA Tournament come March. It's Rick Majerus and Saint Louis. Now, ignore the fact for now that Saint Louis has always given UD fits (winning three of the last four against Dayton, including a 69-51 romp at senior night in UD Arena last year, leaving a particularly sour taste in my mouth). The real problem here is that the loss of Benson will be forced into our faces come January the fourth. Saint Louis' best player is their center, Brian Conklin, who averages 15.4 points a game. He ought to have a field day in UD Arena. The Billikens also still have Kwamain Mitchell on the team (I actually didn't know this until I was looking at their website, I figured Mitchell had graduated at least two years ago, but I guess that could be due to the fact that he looks closer to 40 than 20), who has made a living killing UD in the past. Not much to look forward to Wednesday, as far as I'm concerned.

On a brighter note, Paul Williams scored more than five points in the game against Ole Miss. I had forgotten that PW was still on the roster over the past couple weeks, so that came as a real stunner. PW has perfected the art of disappearing from games, but UD won't be able to afford anything less than 10 points per game from him the rest of the way. Every perimeter player is going to have to really start playing at another for UD to do much more than .500 in the Atlantic 10.

Dayton went a pretty-good-but-shoulda-been-better 10-4 before starting conference play this year. Not enough to do anything positive for their resume. It sits right about where it was coming into the year. To change that, 12-4 or 13-3 is the minimum requirement for a shot at the big dance. The bad news is I don't think there's any way that's happening. The good news is we'll know if they've got a shot early. Four of Dayton's first five A-10 games are big ones (Saint Louis, at Temple, at Saint Bonaventure, home against Xavier). So hopefully they'll go 4-0 or 0-4 in those games so I can decide to keep following closely or just take it easy for the rest of the season. Either way, it should be an interesting stretch. Happy New Year, here's to hoping 2012 is a bit nicer to UD men's basketball than 2011 was.