Who to root for in Championship Week

The Dayton Flyers finished the regular season 19-11 and will play George Washington at home again before (hopefully) travelling to Atlantic City to take on, once again, Xavier. If they beat Xavier, they will likely play St. Louis. If they beat St. Louis, they will probably play Temple or St. Bonaventure. If they win that game, they will earn the Atlantic 10's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Of course I am rooting for this to happen, but I also realize it is a pipe dream.

So with so much more basketball than the A-10 tournament happening this week, it's important to figure out which teams are worth rooting for and which should be rooted against. At the end of this week, the field of 68 determined. In between, all sorts of scenarios could play out; Northwestern could run the table at the Big Twelve Ten Tournament and earn itself something like a 7 seed. Or the Wildcats could lose in the first round to Minnesota and probably miss out on getting a bid altogether. Similar situations abound across the country. And of course, there are plenty of mid-majors fighting to receive the one-and-only bid that will be awarded to their conferences. Four bids are already set. Who do we want to see getting the other 64?

One important thing to note: this is going to mostly consist of "root for mid-major teams and root against Big-6 teams." But that's not all there is to it. You have to root for the right mid-majors, because we want the best NCAA Tournament possible. Upsets are very cool, but while watching sixth-seeded Northwestern State (16-15, 8-8) run through the Southland Tournament might be a fun time, it will result in the Demons receiving a 15 or 16 seed and getting destroyed in the first round. On the other hand, were top seed UT-Arlington (23-7, 15-1) to win the tournament, they would still likely receive a similar seed in the NCAAs (currently a 15 in Joe Lunardi's bracketology, could grab a 14), but Arlington would actually stand a chance of upsetting a 2 or 3 seed that it matches up with well or is having an off day. That is what we are rooting for. The teams that give us the best chance at a thrilling first four days of the tournament.

That is why today we mourn for Iona and Middle Tennessee State, which were relegated to the NIT with losses in their conference tournaments yesterday. Both teams were the class of their conferences (Iona 15-3, MTSU 14-2), but could not survive the tournament atmosphere. Both teams (especially Iona) would have been popular upset picks at the 13 or 12 slot in the bracket. Both teams played entertaining brands of basketball, and would have made for great round of 64 matchups, but they will not be there. Without further ado, here's who to root for to make sure we don't miss out on any more great games.

Long Beach State
If there is one team you root for out of the ordinary this week, make it the 49ers please. If you've kept up to date on mid-major reports, you know about LBSU; the team played the No. 1 non-conference strength of schedule this season, play at Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas and North Carolina. While most of those were losses, all them were by single digits. The 49ers proved they are capable of at least giving the big boys a game, and then emphasized it by racing to a 15-0 start in conference play. Then a three point loss at Cal State Fullerton (the 2 seed in the Big West Tournament) made LBSU suddenly look much more vulnerable to a loss in the tournament. The fact that Long Beach lost all those early season games by small margins makes no difference for its tournament chances; it needs to win this tournament to make the dance. Watching LBSU play basketball is an absolute pleasure, and they boast one of the best mid-major guards in the country in Caspar Ware. Help the 49ers bring this one home.

Weber State
The Wildcats are actually not the top seed in the Big Sky Tournament. That would be the Montana Grizzlies, who beat Weber State by 15 in the final game of the season to take the regular season title at 15-1 (Weber finished 14-2). And I really have nothing against Montana. The Grizz are a tough team (23-6 on the year). But they don't have Damian Lillard, the second-leading scorer in the country. Weber State does. I think the Grizz and Weber State have equal potential as far as an upset in the first round is concerned. But I'm more interested in the possibility of Lillard doing something like dropping 35 in the process of a win or loss than I am about watching Montana. Sorry, Grizz.

Washington and California
Look, the Pac-12 is horrible this year. Still, there's no way the committee has just one team from a Big-6 conference make the tournament. So let's just have the top two teams from the conference run the table in the Pac-12 Tournament, and then who cares which one of them wins in the final? Just so long as Oregon (currently on Lunardi's First Four Out) and Arizona (not close, but still could win the automatic bid) don't complicate things by playing themselves in. Because the reality is that Washington and Cal are probably going to receive at-large bids no matter what. We need them to make sure nobody else from that conference gets a bid so they can get beaten up in the first round of the Big Dance (ahem, USC).

Davidson
Anybody who saw Davidson play its Bracketbusters game against Wichita State knows that this is just the type of team to give somebody trouble as a 13 or 14 seed in the first round. They have a great starting five, three very skilled players, play as a team, have size, and can go eight or nine players deep if necessary. Tonight the Wildcats just need to beat Western Carolina and secure an automatic bid. WCU in the tournament is not what any basketball fan (other than a WCU basketball fan) should want. Davidson is. Tune in at 9 and check the Cats out.

Oral Roberts or South Dakota State
The Summit League Tournament is only playing its semifinals tonight, which means the top two seeds still have some work to do. But if ORU can beat Western Illinois and SDSU can beat Southern Utah, both teams would represent the Summit well in the NCAA Tournament. Oral Roberts won the conference at 17-1, but South Dakota St. wasn't far behind at 15-3. The teams split games in the regular season, both winning by double figures at home. Both teams have great individual players (Dominique Morrison averages 19.9 ppg and is Oral Roberts' all-time leading scorer and Nate Wolters averages 21.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg 6.1 apg, and is in total control at all times he's on the floor for South Dakota State). Either one would present some troubles for a 4 or 5 seed.

Mississippi Valley State
For some reason that is unfathomable to me, the SWAC Tournament hasn't even begun yet. It should probably have held its championship game last week, but it still has three rounds to play. But that means we need to take advantage by rooting for the Delta Devils of Mississippi Valley State. MVSU went just 18-12 on the season. But it went 17-1 in the worst conference in the country. Yes, you read that correctly, MVSU won just one non-conference game. But the teams with the best non-conference records out of the SWAC are Prairie View A&M and Southern University, each of which won four games. Three of those wins came against Division 2 schools for both teams. So after coming into conference play at 1-11 (after playing an actually pretty respectable non-conference set of games, with not a single one of them being at home), MVSU proved it was the best team in the conference, winning the regular season by four games despite losing its final game of the season to Arkansas-Pine Bluff. For the right to come to Dayton and play in the first four, we should all be rooting for the Delta Devils.

Virginia Commonwealth? Drexel?
I just don't know. In my mind, both of these teams have earned a bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Bracketology is saying otherwise, though. Joe Lunardi currently has VCU as one of his First Four Out of the tournament, and has Drexel as a 13 seed receiving the automatic bid, meaning if they do not win the Colonial Tournament, they and VCU would probably more or less swap places in his projections. I don't know how that can be. Drexel closed the regular season on a 17 game winnning streak. VCU won 14 of 15 (losing on a buzzer-beater) to close the season. At that point, both teams should have been projected in the tournament, while a loss early in the conference tournament would have knocked them out, because it would have been a bad loss. But that didn't happen. Both teams have won two games, and are meeting for the conference championship. What else do you want them to do? Both teams have 27 wins against not-great schedules, but not close to cream-puff ones either. And both teams have been phenomenal lately. Isn't that what we want in the NCAA Tournament? My gut is telling me both teams will in fact get a bid come selection Sunday, but if Lunardi is proved correct and only one team will be invited, root for Drexel tonight. The Dragons won the regular season matchup, so they've earned it more.

As for who to root against:
Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, Iowa, Miami (FL), Clemson, Tennessee
The narrative is more or less the same for these teams. With the exception of one win, they all have beaten nobody this season. They have all beaten up on the weaker teams in their non-conference and conference schedules, and then lost in games against good competition, or on the road. We don't want 18-13 Tennessee in the tournament over 25-6 Virginia Commonwealth (regular season records). We don't want 19-12 South Florida to beat BYU out for a spot. In his current projections, Lunardi has eight at-large bids going to seeds 11-13. Five of those are teams from Power-6 conferences. That's plenty, probably too much. We don't need anymore. A couple of these teams losing early in their respective conference tournaments would go a long way to getting the right group into the Big Dance.

Colorado State
See? It's not all big schools that should be rooted against. Unlike the group above, Colorado State has more than one big win. The Rams actually have three, over UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico. The similarity between those three wins? They all came at home. On the road this year, the Rams have lost to Stanford (by 12), Northern Iowa, Wyoming (by 19), New Mexico (by 33!), UNLV (by 19), TCU and Boise State (they did lose a couple others on the road, but those were to good teams by more acceptable margins). I understand a team does not have to win on the road to win in the NCAA Tournament, but it is a part of earning your spot there during the regular season. Maybe the Rams are the type of team that could make some noise in the tournament since they'd be at a neutral site, but if they are stopping the CAA from receiving two bids? No way, get 'em out.


...Oh and Xavier. Root against Xavier always.