Why not to worry about Kevin Dillard

Game one for UD went mostly the way game ones go: "Team UD should beat" hangs around for longer than the fans feel like they should, Dayton eventually pulls away in the late first/early second half, loses a significant part of its comfortable margin midway through the second half, and then rights the ship to win by 10ish.

For the most part, yesterday's game against Arkansas State followed the blueprint, the one notable exception being that Arkansas State only came within nine in the second half, where usually those leads drop to two or three. So overall, from a listener's perspective (believe it or not, UD-Ark St. was not on TV in Colorado), it was a pretty successful game.

Most players contributed positively to the winning effort. Even if it was a small presence, like Alex Gavrilovic or Devon Scott (again, from what I could hear), they did good stuff for the team. None of the new guys or returning players had a classic Paul Williams disappearance-type performance. You know what I'm talking about: it goes something like 0-2 shooting, zero points, one rebound, zero assists, three turnovers and 10-12 screams from the crowd to "DO SOMETHING!"

The one thing Tom Michaels and Bucky Bockhorn  kept harping on was Kevin Dillard's off day. And in the first half, I don't think there's any doubt they were right. UD's best player did not play well. From a whole game standpoint, he did not play as well as expected, and my mom (at the game) said he just made several similar bad plays. For UD fans expecting Dillard to be an A-10 Player of the Year-caliber player, it was probably a bit disconcerting to watch.

Here's the thing though: Dillard's final line was 3-13, 12 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds, 5 turnovers. Yeah, not a great game. But a double-double and then six rebounds from your point guard? From a raw numbers standpoint, that's a strong game. Dillard could easily go 4-6 shooting and put up the same numbers. Knock the turnover numbers down to three let's say, and all of a sudden we're talking about his phenomenal ability to manage the game, his excellent efficiency, etc.

If this is what the Flyers are going to get from Dillard on bad days, there is reason for rejoicing, not bemoaning one game. That means UD has its best player since Brian Roberts, who always found a way to get his, even when the shots weren't falling the way they normally do.

Plus, as mentioned earlier, the other guys stepped up and played well. Vee Sanford had 18 and 7-10 from the field. Josh Benson was 7-9, hit multiple long jumpers (!) and grabbed eight boards. Dillard will be called upon to carry the Flyers to a win more or less on his own in at least a few games this season. But it's encouraging to know when he's a bit off, Dayton isn't necessarily going down.

Dayton-Xavier III: Devastation

I've tried to wait awhile and separate myself from the game that happened yesterday before writing this. While emotion can be an excellent catalyst for writing, the kind of emotion being spouted by me last night was going to be in no way conducive to any sort of creative function.

And with some time to step back and think about the game, I keep coming back to the same thing:
With 5.3 seconds left, Dayton was down one point and inbounding the ball. There is no question that 5.3 seconds is a delicate amount of time. Not enough time that you can really worry about trying to move the ball for a good shot (ideally, you want the opportunity to foul if you miss), but also enough time that a shot does not have to come immediately. Being calm about 5.3 seconds and the opportunity it represents as an offense (Christian Laettner got off a fake, dribble and turnaround-fadeaway in 2.1 seconds. Yes, I'm posting this video and watching it as a means to feeling better) can be the key to winning a game in the closing seconds. Unfortunately, whatever happened in the UD huddle leading up to Chris Johnson's final meaningful shot of his career, calm was not instilled.

CJ received the inbound pass from Kevin Dillard running away from the basket and immediately put up a nearly impossible shot. With that type of momentum going in the wrong direction, to put up a shot was ludicrous. But CJ did, and it fell short, as all such shots do, and Dayton lost, as most such games turn out. Watching with my dad, he immediately spouted, "That's a horrible shot. That was a horrible shot, what was he doing? You've gotta shot fake, and go to the basket!" After about 60 seconds of my staring at the TV screen and not moving, I answered a call from my brother. The conversation went something like this.

"Hey."
"What was he doing shooting that ball?"
"I don't know, man. I don't want to talk about it."
"Yeah I know it bud. Bottom line is down one you always go to the rim to try and score."
"Yeah."

Bottom line is whatever happened during the final two timeouts of Dayton's 70-69 loss to Xavier in the A-10 Quarterfinals, it was at least clear that Chris Johnson was considered a solid option. Whatever was drawn up or directed, the way CJ took his shot so quickly, it seemed clear with Dillard throwing the ball in that he was the desired option. Upon catching the ball, CJ had three options, two involving pump fakes (fake and go past Mark Lyons to the basket, or fake and go into Lyons to draw a foul). He chose option three, which was shoot immediately. You know the rest.

Two years ago, Xavier beat Dayton at the Cintas Center 78-74, due to some unbelievable individual plays from Jordan Crawford. After Dayton exacted its revenge and throttled X 90-65, a member of the UD staff said that he knew they were a better team than Xavier was, citing the 4-point loss away from home and 25-point win at home as proof. And at the time, I certainly agreed with him. But in game three, in the A-10 Tournament, Dayton gained an early lead, couldn't hold it, and fell apart in the end in a 78-73 loss. This year, Dayton beat Xavier easily at home and barely lost on the road again, but which team was really better was anyone's guess. What hurts so bad about this loss is Dayton had the game won. Matt Kavanaugh hit two free throws with 3:02 remaining to put Dayton up 69-63. Those were the last points Dayton scored. UD spent the rest of the game allowing Mark Lyons and Tu Holloway to get to the basket, and stalling on offense until a three-pointer had to be thrown up to avoid a shot clock violation (unsuccessfully once).

One basket during that stretch and Xavier starts fouling, sending Dayton's excellent foul-shooters to the line. Kavanaugh, Dillard, CJ and Paul Williams combine to go 7-8 or 9-10 from the line to close the game. Holloway starts crying when he realizes that not even his 30-foot step-back threes are going to win the game for Xavier this time. Dayton fans start rejoicing, first because Holloway is crying, and second because Dayton has now won the game.

But that made basket never came. Kavanaugh's cutting, leaning layup wouldn't drop, and CJ's no-pump last gasp never stood a chance. Dayton's shot at knocking Xavier out of the NCAA Tournament and bringing itself a step closer fell by the wayside, like many of the Flyers' losses this year.

In the end, what said it all was one bullet-point from Joe Lunardi's late-night Bracketology update after the action last night: "Dayton drops of the bubble with a loss to Xavier in the A-10 quarterfinals." Meanwhile, Xavier appears to have removed itself from the bubble, and win or lose against Saint Louis on Saturday, Tu Holloway will be dancing once more.

When are things going to to turn for Dayton?

UD's shot to take down Xavier

When a Duke-North Carolina game is upcoming, the ESPN pundits typically end up speaking to a player from one or the other team. Every time, the conversation ends up going to the relationship between the players on the two teams. And typically, what we find out is that the Duke and UNC players do not hate each other like the fans and students of the two schools do. While they do play hard against each other on the court, they get along pretty well outside of their games against each other. They play pick-up games together and hang out.

The same may or may not be true for the Dayton and Xavier players. A story from last year quotes Chris Wright as saying he knows many Xavier players and gets along with some of them. Whatever the relationship between Chris Johnson and Tu Holloway may be, I prefer to think of it as one with no love lost. Same with that between Matt Kavanaugh and Kenny Frease. It's more fun to think of it that way, because it gives me reason number 1,743 why it would be sweet if Dayton were to beat Xavier in the Atlantic 10 Tournament Friday.

For the third year in a row, the Flyers and Musketeers will meet in the A-10 Tournament. Last year, Dayton upset Xavier in the quarterfinals and it was cool because UD was beating Xavier; that's always cool. Still, Dayton lost in the A-10 Finals to Richmond and did not make the NCAA Tournament; Xavier did. Two years ago, in the now-infamous (at least among UD fans) Rob Lowery "punch" game, Dayton lost late to Jordan Crawford and Tu Holloway and had its NCAA Tournament hopes dashed. Crawford and Xavier went on to have an excellent tournament. I was at that game, and had as sour a taste in my mouth as I can remember.

Reason No. 1 why it would be sweet if Dayton were to beat Xavier tomorrow? UD can repay the favor from two years ago. Xavier currently sits as one of the final four teams in the bracket in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, while Dayton is about the ninth team outside the field of 68. If they were to lose to Dayton, Xavier would finish the season at 19-12, and you would have to figure that it would end Xavier's hopes at an NCAA bid. To be 1-2 against a team from the same conference that is close to a bid, with similar records, RPIs and Kenpom ratings would be a dagger.

And how awesome would that be? Even if Dayton were to miss the tournament in the grand scheme of things, the possiblity of being 2-1 against Xavier and also being the cause of their demise from the dance is an enticing prospect. To know that Dayton had been better than Xavier in a year in which X was looking like one of the best teams in the country (ranked in the top 10 in the country early in the year), in Tu Holloway's senior year, gets me as excited as the thought of a night on the town with Katy Perry.

Now of course, I shouldn't get ahead of myself. Dayton still has to beat Xavier for any of these beautiful fantasies to come true. And that is going to be no easy task. Dayton played a great game in beating Xavier at home, and then played pretty well but still lost in overtime to the Musketeers at the Cintas Center. Holloway and Mark Lyons were pretty incredible (it hurts me to say that) in both games. But those two are going to score no matter what. They take a ton of shots and are very talented players. The key for Dayton will be winning at every other position on the court. Chris Johnson has played excellent basketball over the past few weeks. He must continue. Matt Kavanaugh and Kenny Frease traded good games in the two matchups this season; Kavanaugh will have to be the better player this time. And Devin Oliver, coming off the best game of his career, will have to follow it up and play well again. Oliver has not scored in his career against Xavier (that's completely true. Unbelievable, but true). Obviously, that's going to have to change.

The good news is UD fans shouldn't (repeat: shouldn't) have to worry about the Flyers not showing up for the game. We've seen before how Dayton has been poor in important games against inferior competition. In my experience, UD has not had trouble being prepared and coming out playing hard for games against Xavier. Even last year's teams, underachievers extraordinaire, played Xavier close at home and then of course beat X in the A-10 Tourney.

Man, it would be sweet to see that happen again. Extra sweet in 2012.

Make or Break?

Last week I wrote about the Dayton-Duquesne game, and how it didn't matter that much because UD's NCAA Tournament hopes rested solely on winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Still, I wanted to see the Flyers play hard, play well and win. Well, they did that. And as far as I was concerned, nothing had changed for UD except for the number in its win column this season. Then my brother pointed me to this tweet from Joe Lunardi, saying that UD was closer than maybe we expected to being a tournament team. Flabbergasted, I followed UD's performance while at work that night as it thrashed Massachusetts, 76-43 at home. When I got home, I watched ESPN and got on ESPN.com for the latest Bracketology updates, and couldn't believe my eyes when I saw that Dayton was Lunardi's seventh team out of the tournament--they were his 45th-best candidate to receive an at-large bid. I sort of assumed that Joe had lost his mind, but looking at other brackets, the same was true. UD was just outside the field (in some cases, in it).

So is Dayton's game at Richmond tonight a make or break for the Flyers? No and yes. Winning at Richmond (15-15, 6-9 A-10) will not vault the Flyers into the projected NCAA Tournament field, or even help them bypass a single team in front of them (unless one of those teams loses). But losing to Richmond would certainly spell doom for Dayton's at-large chances (I am still skeptical that these even exist).

That is why tonight's game is so nerve-racking. If there is any type of game that UD has perfected losing, it is this one. An important game against a weak opponent (almost always a conference opponent) that will drastically effect Dayton's place in the A-10 standings one way or another. I don't really want to look to the past for proof, but here goes: at 3-3 in the A-10 last year, Dayton traveled to Duquesne and lost 84-62. After righting the ship the Flyers were 5-4 in A-10 play; they then lost by 14 at Rhode Island. At 7-8 in the conference that year, Dayton played its final game at George Washington and lost 60-58. In the 2009-10 season, UD was 3-1 in the A-10, then lost consecutive games at Saint Joe's and with Rhode Island visiting. At 6-3 in the conference, Dayton lost 68-65 at Saint Louis, then lost on senior night again to the Billikens while sporting an 8-7 record. During the 2007-08 season, Dayton suffered some injuries after starting 2-0 in the conference. In then lost at home to UMass, 82-71. After recovering somewhat and getting to 4-4, Dayton lost consecutive games at George Washington and home to Duquesne. Are you getting the picture? (Too bad if you aren't, because I'm slamming my head against the desk as I'm writing this. For my own safety, we aren't reliving any more devastation). All three of those teams were on and off the bubble throughout the second half of the season. I believe each of them had the talent to make the big dance, but none of them did.

This year's team is not the same in terms of style of play, but in terms of wins and losses the similarities are striking. At 2-0 in the A-10, Dayton lost at St. Bonaventure. At 4-1, the Flyers forgot how to play defense and lost three straight to weaker teams (St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne) and then one more at a good St. Louis team. Like in past years, it is not unreasonable to say that a win instead of a loss in any of Dayton's A-10 defeats would barely change the team's record, but it would make the team's resume look significantly better. This year's team would be 19-9, and in a third-place tie at 9-5 in the conference. It's just one game, but doesn't 19-9, 9-5 look worlds better than 18-10, 8-6. It does to me. Not to mention that it would take a bad loss of of UD's resume.

Perhaps the most annoying thing about this season as it has turned out, though, is a game we all expected UD to lose. When UD lost 86-83 in overtime at Xavier Feb. 18th, I think it's fair to say most UD fans were disappointed that the team had come so close and lost, but not surprised that Dayton had lost. But now, Xavier has had an extremely rocky second half of the season, and according to Lunardi, is outside the field of 68 just like UD. Essentially this means that a win at Xavier could have (would likely have?) put Dayton in charge of its own tournament destiny, and all but eliminated Xavier's chances. How sweet would that have been? About 150,000 times sweeter than when Brian Roberts dropped 30 points on Pittsburgh.

Sorry, I got carried away there. There's no point in getting caught up in the past. Because tonight, Dayton plays a game that is just as important as that one at Xavier was. Kris Mooney and Richmond have had Dayton's number the past couple years. Last year, it was Richmond that denied Dayton a surprise bid to the tournament by beating them in the A-10 Tourney Championship. But this has been a rebuilding year for the Spiders. It's time for the Flyers to jump on them and take advantage. The committee just might be watching.

Dayton's last stand

See CJ staring up at the clock? That's because he knows time is running out.

With six games to play, Dayton sits at 15-9 on the season and 5-5 in the Atlantic 10, good for eighth place in the conference. You might note that is more or less the position Dayton has finished in the conference standings the past couple years, and it is more or less the position they appear to be headed for again. Dayton's final six games consist of three games they will be favored to win (tonight against Charlotte, at Richmond and versus George Washington) and three games you would figure they will have their hands full (at Xavier, at Duquesne and versus Massachusetts).

But let's pretend for a second that despite their weary legs, lack of defense and poor depth, the Flyers manage to catch fire one more time, and start playing the way they did when they ran through Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Temple, LaSalle and Xavier en route to a 4-1 start in the A-10. Would a 21-9 record be enough to get Dayton a shot at an at-large bid? The team's resume going into the A-10 tournament would look something like this:

Record: 21-9, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: ~50
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x), Temple, Saint Louis, Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss (I'm not saying all of these actually are great wins, but they would be advertised as such)
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

That looks to me to be one of the more perplexing tournament resumes one could possibly look at. My first thought, if I didn't know who the team was, would be to figure that they had either drastically improved or fallen off over the course of the season, with the nice wins either coming early or late. But that's not been the case with this Dayton team. The quality wins and bad losses have been sprinkled evenly over the course of the season. My gut looking at the resume says no, this team would not be one deserving of an at-large. But to make sure, I took a look at the final teams to receive at-large bids over the last three years and compared them to this year's UD team. However, one final adjustment had to be made. The final at-large bids (seeds 10,11 and 12) contained teams from power-6 conferences and non-power conferences alike. In looking at the records of power-6 teams that received 11 or 12 seeds (almost certainly the type of seed Dayton would receive this year because they would likely be a First Four team), it was clear that those teams' strengths of schedule played a large difference in them getting recognition. None of those teams had 20-win seasons. UD's best possible record without 20 wins would be 19-11, and no matter who they beat, I think we can agree an at-large bid would be out of the question.

So, I decided just to look at the mid-major schools to receive at-large bids near the end of the draw. Here are their resumes:

2009
Dayton
Record: 26-7, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: 27
Quality Wins: George Mason, Xavier, Temple
Bad Losses: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Saint Louis (iffy whether that's a bad loss)

2010
Texas-El Paso
Record: 26-6, 15-1 Conference-USA
RPI: 39
Quality Wins: Houston
Bad Losses: none

Utah State
Record: 27-7, 14-2 WAC
RPI: 42
Quality Wins: BYU, New Mexico State
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, Louisiana Tech

2011
UAB
Record: 22-8, 12-4 Conference-USA
RPI: 31
Quality Wins: Arkansas? VCU?
Bad Losses: East Carolina, Southern Miss, Tulsa

VCU
Record: 23-11, 11-6 Colonial (believe it or not, they did play 17 conference games)
RPI: 49
Quality Wins: Wichita State, Old Dominion, UCLA
Bad Losses: South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern, James Madison

And here we are. A quick look at those resumes compared to UD says Dayton has no chance of an at-large. Sure, they have more quality wins by far than any team on that list, but they also have more quality losses, a worse RPI, and a worse conference and overall record than most.

However, it's important to keep in mind that Dayton wouldn't be finished at 21-9. The A-10 Tournament would still be looming large. And at 11-5 in the conference, a 4-5 seed is the most likely placement. Let's give Dayton a five seed so they play one more round. That would mean UD would have the possibility of three more wins and a loss (four wins would mean they win the automatic bid). In our continuation of the best-case scenario, UD would finish the season 24-10. And with a couple wins over some of the better A-10 competition, its RPI could improve to somewhere like 45. Now take a look at the resume:

24-10, 11-5 A-10
RPI: 45
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x(Maybe 3x)), Temple (Maybe 2x), Saint Louis (Maybe 2x), Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

The volume of bad losses still looms large, but does that resume look similar to any of the ones we showed above? How about last year's tournament darlings, the VCU Rams? 24-10 vs. 23-11, 11-5 vs. 11-6. 45 RPI vs. 49. Quality wins over mostly good mid-major teams, and several head-scratching bad losses. Not to mention that VCU finished its regular season losing four of five games before making it to the CAA Tournament final. In our projected scenario, UD would be on a nine game win streak before losing in the final. Sounds better to me.

Here's the thing, though: VCU had no business making the tournament last year. I know, I know, "they proved they deserved the bid with their play over the next three weeks". Woopty-doo, Basil. They hadn't earned their place there. They didn't have that great of a season until the tournament. But that is the opportunity the First Four provides. With three more bids in play, there is just a sliver of opportunity for a not-so-great team to sneak in if somebody on the selection committee makes the right argument.

In conclusion, If UD wins its next nine games, starting tonight against Charlotte, and then loses in the A-10 Championship Game, it will still only have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament. So Go Flyers!

I'll book my tickets for the CBI.

What happened at UD Arena Saturday?

The bad news: UD is 1-5 in games that I've been able to watch on TV or in person (not actually bad news anymore)

The good news: that one win came against Xavier in spectacular fashion at UD Arena.

So what happened at UD Arena? Dayton had the best two players on the court at any given time in Kevin Dillard and Matt Kavanaugh. I wrote earlier this week that I felt both Dillard and Kav had a shot at matching up and playing well against this particular Xavier team. I would never have taken it as far as a 16 point, nine assist performance from Dillard accompanied by a 20 point, nine rebound performance from Kavanaugh. Dillard went up against one of the premier guard tandems in the country and came out better than both of them. No matter what matchup Xavier threw at Kavanaugh (slow and strong Kenny Frease, or lighter and quicker Andre Walker, he was assertive and dominant on the offensive end. The performances of those two cannot be lauded enough.

But don't let that take away from everyting else that went on in this game. It was perhaps the finest offensive game I've ever seen UD play (I'm known to use hyperbole quicker than most, but this was no doubt a top-3 performance). Whatever Archie Miller saw in Xavier that he wanted to exploit, whatever motivation Jon Gruden's speech gave to the Flyers, however fired up the players were, they came out and delivered a magnificent performance. The ball movement was incredible, as Dayton put in open layups time and again versus a weary and confused X defense. The shot selection (for the most part) was solid; even with several inadvisable three-point attempts, Dayton shot 50 percent from the field. The players aside from Dillard and Kavanaugh also delivered. Chris Johnson only scored five points, but each of his six rebounds was a ferocious board in traffic, the type of vintage CJ rebounding UD fans had grown accustomed to, but had not seen as much of this season. Off the bench, Josh Parker continued his elevated level of under-control play contributing 16 points on 5-7 shooting, all good shots. Perhaps most surprising of all, Ralph Hill, the sophomore who at the beginning of the year was probably not expecting to see a minute in this game, logged four points, five rebounds (in traffic, against bigger, more season Xavier players) and an assist.

In this game, not only did Dayton dominate more-or-less from the tip and take the lead in the Atlantic 10 standings, but it established a blueprint for how to continue winning games. In this game, the desired product of coach Archie Miller's offense was realized. What's more, it didn't even look that difficult. Yes, UD players were knocking down shots, and that will continue to be the most important aspect of any offense, but today, the shots were easy. How hard is it going to be to replicate the performance against X? Very, especially without a raucous crowd backing them. But how hard is it going to be to deliver the same type of effort and ball movement? In theory, not at all. So far, Miller gets props for his coaching in improving his players. He has coached a group of players to a 14-5 record that it is hard to believe Brian Gregory would have at better than 11-8. Now, however, the test really begins. Will he be able to get them to keep it up? Where will the motivation come from when there is no rivalry game, no home crowd, no Jon Gruden? If Miller has the answer to that question, we could be in for a special month-plus of UD basketball.

No point in worrying about all that for now, though. Today, UD basketball beat Xavier. Easily. They made Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease look bad. Today, that's about as sweet as it gets.

UD vs. Alabama: Wooooooooooooooo!

That's the type of fire I've been dying to see from CJ all year.

This will not be a normal recap, cause it's coming the day after the game, but I was shocked (and pumped) to look at my phone and see that Dayton had beaten Alabama by 12. It was not a game I was expecting them to win at all. But in typical Flyer fashion, UD got itself up and played a great game, winning 74-62. Maybe with that type of win, they'll put themselves back on track.

First things first: this performance by UD will be an anomaly for the rest of the season, for a few reasons. Dayton might not shoot 60 percent from the field again, will rarely shoot 50 percent from the three again, and my two keys to the game from yesterday's post actually coming through and being keys to the game will almost certainly never happen again. But it was nice for UD to out-rebound Bama (26-20) and for Chris Johnson to have by far his best game of the season (8-9 fg, 20 points) and make me look like I know what I'm talking about. The best part about CJ's game last night appears to be that of his nine shots, just four of them were threes. So even if he had an off night from beyond the arc (say 1-4) he would have finished with 14. It's pretty simple. When the guy gets inside, he scores more.

Despite the ridiculous shooting percentage, there are things UD did this game that are sustainable, some things that they are perfectly capable of continuing the rest of the season. First is the rebounding margin. They won it. And while neither team grabbed many rebounds in total (a byproduct of UD's 60 percent shooting and Alabama's 50 percent), UD won the battle on the glass. That's important. That's what they need to be doing all the time, especially when A-10 season comes around and they aren't playing teams that are as big as Alabama. The other stat that was great to see was Dayton's 18 assists on the game. Once again, this is a slightly inflated total due to the Flyers' high shooting percentage, but when a team has 18 assists, that means it was moving the ball well all game long. So whether or not the shots are dropping at such a high clip, the offense is working well. You have to be encouraged by a stat like that.

I wasn't expecting Dayton to win this came, and yet, it feels like I should have seen this coming. I mean, isn't this the way UD has been since I can remember? Play well, play poorly on the road, have a good stretch, have a horrible stretch that causes you to scratch your head and wonder why you ever thought they were any good, then win a game against a great opponent. Yeah, that sounds about right. I'm used to that. I wish I wasn't, but I am. After this Bama win, a fan can't help but wonder why Dayton couldn't play like it did against Alabama when it was playing Miami or Buffalo, because 60 percent shooting would not have been necessary to beat either of those teams, and UD would be 8-1, looking great so far. Alas, that's not the way it's been with the Flyers for a long time, and, for now, it looks like us fans are going to have to endure that inconsistency for at least one more year.

From here on out, the non-conference is pretty weak. Dayton plays USC Upstate, Florida International, Seton Hall, Illinois-Chicago and Ole Miss. UD's record in those games absolutely cannot be worse than 4-1, with the one loss allowed against a Seton Hall team that looks...not bad this year. Really, it needs to be a 5-0 stretch. Get through that, then we're into what really matters for Dayton. A huge first game against Saint Louis, the team that has dominated them in recent years. With play like last night, Dayton can continue to make it happen against all these teams.

Dayton vs. Alabama

Fitting that while I'm at work Dayton will be playing the most important game of its non-conference season. So instead of doing a recap, I'm going to try and capture this game before it happens.

First, to make one thing clear. This game wouldn't be the most important for UD if it were not for recent events. Dayton comes into its home contest against Alabama the losers of a surprising two consecutive (bad) games. After an 84-55 loss against Buffalo and a 75-58 loss at Murray State, UD will be playing its marquee non-conference game with its season looking tenuous at best. A win over a top 15 opponent and maybe the Flyers have stopped the bleeding and are getting back on track. A loss? Well, that would mean UD has lost three straight, fallen to 5-4 and officially qualify for "reeling" status. At 5-4 nine games in, nothing short of a spectacular performance in the Atlantic 10 regular season and A-10 Tournament would have Dayton playing in any sort of postseason.

What needs to happen
Dayton's work on the glass needs to improve. Currently Dayton is 226th in the country in rebounds per game. That sits in stark contrast to what we've been accustomed to for Dayton for a long time. They have hung their hat on their rebounding for years. But that has not been the case this season. Alabama, meanwhile, is ranked 42nd in rebounding. UD is going to have to really pick up its effort on the glass if it doesn't want to get run out of the gym giving up offensive rebounds.

Chris Johnson's got to step up. CJ has been lackluster all season long. Even when he's scored, it hasn't been great. CJ has shot 36 percent for the season (34 percent from three), and he's only pulling down five boards a game. In the past, CJ has stepped up big in important games. It would be excellent if Dayton could get another 26 point, 20 rebound-type performance out of Johnson like he delivered against Duquesne two seasons ago. CJ has hit some clutch shots in big moments in the past. That hasn't been a factor this season. He has the talent to be the best player on the court tonight, but he's going to have to play a completely different game than we've seen from him this season. He's going to have be aggressive at all times: on the glass, going to the basket and occasionally hitting open shots when they are good ones to take.

Tonight's game is a huge one for the Flyers. They've got to bring their best possible game to the table. We need to see a vs. Pittsburgh-type performance. I'll be hoping to come home to some good news. I'll be rooting for Chris Johnson above all, because he's got to be dying about the way he's been playing so far. Have a good Wednesday, and go Flyers

UD at Murray State

I can remember in my freshman year of playing intramural basketball I put together a team of high school friends and a couple guys on the floor. We were not very good, but signed up for the non-competitive league and I figured we'd be a .500-ish team with a shot at winning a game or two in the tournament.

When the season started, things weren't going well. We were a decent enough defensive team (with a little trouble on the glass due to lack of size) but beyond poor offensively. It stemmed from the fact that we were shooting something like 18 percent from the field on the season (if you can believe it, we did not have a statistician on the bench keeping track of things, so I'm guessing at the exact percentage). Sometime during our third or fourth game, Big Rob came up to me and posed the question, "Nate, what can we do man, what can we change up?" To which I responded with something like, "Well, we've got to start hitting some shots, and if we can do that, we'll be okay." This answer aggravated Big Rob, because he had heard it from me more than once before. He told me that there had to be something else, I couldn't just keep blaming our inability to score on our poor shooting. I couldn't come up with anything else good for him on the spot there, because, plain and simple, in basketball, if you aren't getting good shots and just not making them, there's not much to be done about it, I thought. Later on I came up with the brilliant solution: stop shooting. Take it to the hole, try and post up some, maybe get a foul call (an excellent idea in intramurals especially, whose officials are dreadful). Did we end up winning the championship that season? No, not even close. But with an offense that scored every now and again, we were competitive in our games and enjoying ourselves. All because of a simple thought: teams that don't shoot well shouldn't shoot the ball.

I couldn't help but revisit this thought as I watched Murray State pull away from Dayton in the second half of their game Sunday. As UD put up brick after brick (with a few airballs sprinkled in for good measure), it became painfully obvious what needed to happen; Dayton needed to have been goign to the hoop all game long. By the time anyone figured that out (Josh Benson), it was too late. Thanks to another poor effort defensively, Dayton went down badly on the road, 75-58.

The Good
Josh Benson. The big man was the only positive to take away from Sunday afternoon's game. Not even the blue away jerseys could make up for what was happening on the court. But Benson played a nice game, and had an especially good second half. The redshirt junior was 8-8 from the field, 1-1 from the foul line and finished with 17 points and six boards. Benson did most of his work around the rim, but also stepped away from the basket and hit a couple mid-range jumpers. He was the only Dayton player that had an interest in going inside, which was a good thing, because Benson knew he had a mismatch in the paint. Murray State is a good team, but severely lacking in size, and Dayton needed to take better advantage of that throughout. Benson did, so he gets some kudos. UD will need Benson to be aggressive on offense like he was in this game, but to be able to do it against better big men as well.

The Bad
Chris Johnson. One of Dayton's biggest problems as a team right now is that it only has nine scholarship players. That means that guys who are doing nothing on the court, like Luke Fabrizius, Josh Parker and yes, CJ, still have to get some playing time for sheer lack of bodies. I don't even recognize Chris Johnson anymore. He isn't shooting well, only shoots threes (1-8 from the field Sunday, 0-6 from three with an airball), does not hustle like he used to, does not rebound like he used to, isn't getting to the foul line, and when he does, not shooting them as well as he has throughout his career. It's mind-boggling. Really, it's sad, because CJ was one of my favorite Dayton players ever. Great athlete, hustles like crazy, decent scorer, makes plays all over the court that take your breath away (I never said "wow" about somebody's rebounding til I saw CJ. I imagine him at UD was like watching Rodman in the prime of his career on the glass), plays with no regard for his own body and is a quiet guy who is not looking to show the other team up when he makes a good play. Aside from the quiet part, CJ is none of those things anymore. I don't know what to do about it. I hope Archie Miller has a good idea soon.

The Defense. UD gave up 75 more points. They've now let up 75 to Murray State, 70 to Minnesota, 72 to Miami, 76 to Wake Forest and 84 to Buffalo. Part of Sunday's problems came from the fact that the Racers were on fire in the second half. But UD's defense was bad all the same. They didn't hustle to get out on shooters, and they got buried by long-range shooting in the second half. The real problem is that this seems to be the rule rather than the exception. UD's defense is just not very good, and the players aren't talented enough on offense to consistently score in the 70s and 80s. If the D doesn't improve, UD's losing streak will grow.

The Coaching. In the first half, the Flyers were a not-too-shabby 10-22 from the field. They were 2-10 from the three point line. That means they were 8-10 from inside the arc. How did Archie Miller not show that stat to his players in the locker room at halftime, circled about 1000 times, and scream, "Get the damn ball inside!"? I'll never know. What I do know, is that UD decided to take that information and shove it right in our faces, as they came out and put on a clinic in the second half, going 1-11 on three-pointers. This is a very simple concept. When you aren't shooting well, you don't keep shooting. Dayton hasn't been poor from beyond the arc this season, but its last several games have started a declining trend in shooting percentage (only against Minnesota has Dayton shot three-pointers well in its last four games).

Quitting? While watching Murray State pull away in the second half, I started rationalizing out loud with my dad. Murray State is a pretty good team, after all. They will have a great shot at an NCAA Tournament berth out of the Ohio Valley Conference, like they do every year. It was an away game, and UD is typically bad away from home. And Murray State shot well, making this a loss that was not really unexpected. It still didn't feel good, but I could understand it. Then, as Murray State scored an easy basket to make its lead 17 or 19 in a game that still had about eight minutes left, my dad muttered, "This team quits." Those words have been killing me since. Is he right? In the last two games, he has been. UD quit in the first half against Buffalo, and definitely shut it down in the second half at Murray State. In case you didn't know, that's not a quality to be excited about. It's a quality to be abhorred. The Brian Gregory/Chris Wright version of Dayton basketball had tons of flaws, but heart was never one of them. I'm not willing to say this teams lacks heart already, but that thought has entered my mind (thanks, Dad). Next time UD has a slow stretch that ends up in a big lead for its opponent, keep your eyes peeled. Dayton didn't care for the final 10 or so minutes against Murray State. That kind of shit can't ever happen again.

UD vs. Buffalo: Ouch

Can you see how PW's not happy? Well that's because UD just lost by 29 at home.

In my last post I touched on how sometimes a team can look really good and despite how excited you might be about how well they played, that will not be case for most of the season. Well, if Wednesday's game against Buffalo (AT HOME) was any indication, then we may have seen the best UD is capable of in the Old Spice Classic Finals against Minnesota. Even if that game wasn't UD's best effort, let's hope this one was the absolute worst.

This game was, in every sense of the word, ugly. Similar to Duke at Ohio State the night before, UD was dismantled and embarrassed in every facet of the game, from start to finish. The only differences between UD and Duke were (a)Duke did close the gap once in the first half, UD didn't, and (b)Dayton got stomped AT HOME.

The Good
Yeah...uh...

The Bad
The defense. UD gave up 85 points to Buffalo. The Flyers gave up 46 points in the second half on 60 percent shooting. They were outrebounded by 21. They gave up 15 offensive boards. They were out-hustled to loose balls. They were lazy all game long, and never got out to defend Zach Filzen, who was on fire, but benefited from having open look after open look.

The offense. Dayton scored 11 points in the first 15 minutes of the game. Kevin Dillard was 4-10 from the field, and he was a bright spot. Matt Kavanaugh went 3-8, Josh Parker 2-8, Josh Benson 1-5, Chris Johnson 4-15 and Paul Williams 0-3 (3 shots! All game! From your starting two-guard!).

Chris Johnson. It probably doesn't seem like there could be any more bad from this game if the offense and defense were bad. That makes up just about the entirety of a basketball game. But CJ is getting special treatment tonight, because I don't know what the hell is wrong with him. He led Dayton in scoring with 12 points tonight, that doesn't sound terrible. Until you realize that he was 4-15 from the field in scoring those twelve points. Which must mean...you guessed it! All of CJ's 12 points came from behind the three-point line. He was 4-10, which is actually an okay percentage (for now let's not worry about the fact that 10 threes is waaayyy too many for him to be shooting in one game, especially if he's not on fire). "But wait," you're probably thinking, "if he was 4-10 from three and 4-15 for the game, that must mean..." Right again! CJ managed to go 0-5 from inside the arc, including a couple missed layups. He's not even getting it done on the glass these days (three rebs against Buffalo), which used to be the go-to part of his game if he was struggling offensively. I can't tell if CJ is just in a funk to start the season, he doesn't like Archie Miller's system and is playing poorly because of it, or has decided that being an English teacher is more interesting to him. Whatever the problem is, CJ's game needs some major work right now. And after watching that performance, so does the entire Dayton team.

UD vs. Minnesota: Where did this come from?

After a disappointing loss at Miami, it has been good, good, and more good for the Dayton Flyers, who took home the Old Spice Classic championship with a relatively easy 86-70 win over Minnesota. This was a game I was expecting Dayton to lose, so what happened that they were in control? For starters, it was one of those games that UD seems to have every year where they play to their full potential and look phenomenal (think like their 28-point win over Charlotte two years ago or the 30-point victory over Pitt from four years back). But there was more to it than that. Let's look a bit deeper.

The Good
Kevin Dillard. Kevin Dillard. Kevin. Dillard. Dillard delivered the best game from a UD guard since Brian Roberts was running the show at UD, and from a pure point-guard perspective, it was probably better than what Roberts could muster (B-Rob always had to be looking to score more, so this isn't to take anything away from him). Dillard tallied 19 points, 10 assists, seven steals (SEVEN!) and three blocks, and was efficient doing it, going 6-12 from the field. What's more, is Dillard was in complete control of the game while he was on the court. It really was pretty amazing to watching him from the second portion of the first half on. He was just so calm and smooth, doing what he wanted, much in the same way Chris Paul or Steve Nash manage a game. From watching, you got the sense he was going to score or find someone for an open shot every possession. It was amazing.

Devin Oliver. Oliver's line from Sunday: 14 minutes, 0-1 from the field, zero points, seven rebounds, one assist, one steal, one turnover, four fouls. So why was he good? Because Oliver appears to understand and accept what his role on the team is currently: come in as a seventh or eighth man and hustle his ass off. Don't be a defensive liability, and grab some rebounds. And if you watched the game Sunday, you would have seen Oliver all over the place. He gave maximum effort at all times (probably why he managed the four fouls in just 14 minutes). He deferred to his teammates on offense, and it resulted in him playing good minutes in the second half. Perhaps there will come a time when UD needs Oliver to step up on offense, but for now, what he's doing is great.

The blue uniforms. I'm hoping I get to see these blue unis more over the rest of the season. I thought it was so cool to see UD playing in the school's color blue. There was nothing special about those unis as far as color scheme or design, but they looked great, and Dayton ran the table in them while in Florida. It is reminiscent of their run through the 2010 NIT wearing the black uniforms. Keep those coming back on the road, Archie.

The Bad
This is somewhat of a nit-picky bad since UD didn't really need him to be great in this game, but Paul Williams only scored eight points against Minnesota, going 2-9 from the field. So far, PW has been UD's best player (with Dillard probably taking that spot over after this tournament), but he has been inconsistent this year. Williams' scoring so far this year: 15, 20, 5, 18, 5, and 8. It should be noted that two of his single-digit performances came in games where UD didn't need him as badly, but still, it is important for the senior to be delivering in double figures just about every game. And if he doesn't score 10 or more, it needs to be because he took less shots, not because PW put up a line like 2-9.

So UD will come back to town an encouraging 5-1 to a very appreciative fan base. Things will not get any easier for Dayton, though. After a home game against Buffalo, UD has its two toughest (and therefore most important) non-conference games: at Murray State and at home against No. 12 Alabama. The nation took notice of UD after this weekend, but a 2-0 stint in those games would really turn some heads. With the fact that the A-10 is looking pretty strong in the early season, UD is going to need to keep on playing strong basketball to keep up. Still, there is plenty of reason to be excited about what Dayton has done so far. The players have bought into Miller's system, are playing hard and winning games. You can't ask for much more.

Smörgåsbord Saturday: Dayton Flyers, NFL and the NBA returns

Given my work schedule this week, there was a lot I wanted to write about today, so this will be the first Smörgåsbord Saturday, a column where I write shorter bits about a bunch of different things. If all goes according to plan, I'll produce a smörgåsbord every Saturday. There will at least be one every couple. Right, let's get to it.

Dayton survives again
First things first. The UD basketball won another game in the Old Spice Classic, advancing to the finals of the early-season tournament with a 56-49 win over Fairfield. Fairfield the winner of the MAAC last season, is a team that many casual fans have never heard of, but make no mistake. This is a good win for UD, even though it won't show up on any late-season resumes of what UD has done so far. I was unable to watch the game, much to my disappointment, but the texts I received about the proceedings indicated that UD did not play especially well. The fact that they scored just 56 points would appear to support that opinion, since it is UD's lowest offensive output so far by 11 points. Chris Johnson played another poor game, scoring just five points and attempting just two two-point shots (again). Paul Williams had his worst game so far. The bright spots for Dayton were Matt Kavanaugh (again!) grabbing double-digit rebounds and (sigh) Josh Parker. Parker (who I'm working on a nickname for) scored 13 in the first half and was the reason Dayton was in the game. This is the type of performance we'll see from Parker three to five times a year, much like Charles Little before him. A few times a year, all the bad shots he puts up will drop, and he will have an excellent game. Hopefully, those games continue to come for Parker when the other players are struggling like they were Friday.
Next up for UD is Minnesota, a game that I think will be extremely difficult for Dayton to win. Minnesota is nothing special this season, but the Gophers boast plenty of size that I believe will bother UD on defense and not be stopped on offense. Kavanaugh and Josh Benson will need to have career days defensively to keep up on the glass and in the low-post.

Turkey Day Football
There were some interesting games happening on Thanksgiving Day in the NFL, and the one that seemed the least interesting going in ended up being the most interesting. So what did we learn? The Lions are not a threat come playoff time, even though they will still probably make the postseason. They were dismantled by the Packers. The Cowboys are almost certain to win the NFC East now, but are also almost certain to lose in the Wildcard round of the playoffs to some inferior team. They just aren't that good. The 49ers are not explosive enough to win unless they win the turnover battle significantly. And the Ravens? They are my new pick to win the Super Bowl. Because despite losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle, the Ravens have shown that those were instances of them just shutting it down because they don't care about weak opponents. When they get up for game (which they will in the playoffs) they're incredible. The defense is absolutely ravenous. I think it's good enough to beat Green Bay.

Congrats to members of the 2011 NBA Draft
Can't help but feel happy for guys like Nolan Smith, Norris Cole and Kyle Singler. They were all drafted into decent-to-good situations, and then had to sit by and do nothing while waiting for the NBA to come up with a new CBA. What were guys like Cole, a Cleveland State grad and late-first round pick, doing during all that time? He wasn't collecting any money from his contracts, we know that much. Well, Norris, you can get excited, finally. The NBA appears to have a deal set, and that means you can start collecting some big-boy checks, as well as begin your campaign for the Miami Heat starting point guard position (which you'll probably have on lockdown before season's end). Have fun throwing oops to Lebron and D-Wade. Bring back the flat top with that awesome fade, and try to get the rest of your team to employ it on their domes as well. That's just the type of thing that could get the public back on the Heat's side. How could we not root for a team that is all rocking the 80's flat top?

Happy Saturday. Ohio State is actually playing Michigan close. A nice surprise for all the Ohio people I know on a nice Saturday.

UD vs. Wake Forest

In its first game of the Old Spice Classic, UD matched up with Wake Forest, a team from the ACC that has been stuck in struggsville ever since Chris Paul left. And in a very winnable game that would also look decent on a resume for the Flyers (at a neutral site), UD picked up an 80-76 win and improved to 3-1 on the year. It was an important win for Dayton to get, and even had Paul shaking his head afterwards. Is it just me or is it kinda cool that CP3 was watching that game, and still actually cares about what's going on with his former school?

Reaction
This was a big one for UD. After a poor performance in their only game away from UD Arena on the season, I was a bit nervous about what the Flyers might do. What they did was not great, giving up 76 points, but in the end you've got to be happy with a nice win. If UD can consistently beat team's of Wake's caliber, they're going to have a pretty good record come the end of the year and will be top 5 in the A-10. UD outrebounded Wake 43-31, meaning Dayton has won the rebounding numbers in every game this year. That's a good stat to see. Controlling the glass is extremely important.

The Good
Matt Kavanaugh. Who saw this coming? Kav, after being on of the softest, slowest big men I can remember seeing (maybe he would beat Kenny George in a foot race?), has now had two great games this year for UD. He led the way for Dayton today, scoring 15 points and 13 rebounds. He went 3-3 from the foul line. He had three assists to go with three turnovers (not bad for a center). I didn't think Kavanaugh was ever going to be a guy that was delivering significant numbers, but he just may be proving me wrong this year (I hope so). Kav's line against Wake is more exciting than his numbers against Western Illinois, because Wake boasts a bigger set of big men, who would therefore (theoretically) offer up more resistance. But he still delivered.

Paul Williams. P-dub has been UD's best player through its first four games and continued his high level of play. After a forgettable first half, PW stepped up big in the second and started knocking down shots. He finished the game 5-15, but was 0-7 in the first half. So when the Flyers needed him, he was there to deliver. Paul also had three assists to just one turnover, and had two steals to add to his line as well. Without Williams, UD is certainly 2-2 on the year, and the loss to Miami would have looked much worse. If a couple other players (read below) can get up a bit closer to PW's level right now, UD will really start clicking on offense.

Josh Parker only playing 13 minutes. This is an extremely encouraging sign from Archie Miller in the early stages of the season. Simply put, Parker had been the worst Dayton player on the court through three games, so Miller cut his time back. He still managed to go 0-5 from the field in those 13 minutes, so don't expect him to get much more PT anytime soon. And UD will be better off for it.

Foul Shooting. UD went 15-17 from the charity stripe in this game. Wait a second, that can't possibly be correct. Let me check that again (consulting box score...). Huh. Supposedly UD went 15-17 from the foul line in this game. And 2012 is just around the corner? Uh oh.

The Bad
Chris Johnson. I am getting dangerously close to giving up on CJ as a threat to score inside the three-point line. CJ went 3-10 from the field and 2-8 from beyond the arc. How can that guy only be attempting two two-point shots in an entire game? He wasn't in foul trouble, so he got his normal minutes. He went 4-4 from the foul line in this game to get him to 12 points. Why is he only attempting four foul shots in a game?!?! He is a borderline 90 percent free throw shooter in his career, CJ needs to be doing everything he can to get to the line. He can get so many free points there! And I hate to break it to you CJ, but you're going to have to start slashing, cause there just aren't as many shooting fouls on the perimeter.

Not much else bad is coming from this game. The defense of course needs significant improvement, but we've all heard enough about that already. Next up is the semis of the Old Spice Classic, against Fairfield of the MAAC, a pretty weak-looking conference so far this year. Fairfield beat Arizona State in the first round, which is the type of result we can't glean anything from. ASU looked horrible.

A UD In-betweener

A rough weekend work schedule kept me from being able to see Dayton play in their game against UNC-Wilmington. It also kept me from getting much writing in, so I'm not going to focus as much on that game, but more what it could mean going forward for the Flyers.

Reaction
When I got home from work on Saturday after the UD game and spoke to my mom about it (she had attended the game) all she could do was shake her head. Evidently UNCW was about as bad as can be. A look at the box score doesn't make them look much better than she indicated. They scored just 49 points, shot 35 percent from the field, attempted just nine free throws all game, and had 19 turnovers to 11 assists. All this coming against a UD defense that could be generously called a work in progress. So lets get that out of the way first: UD's two wins have been against teams that they absolutely had to beat. And they did. Badly. The encouraging aspect of this game was that Chris Johnson finally showed up, scoring 19 points. Of course, 15 of those 19 points came from beyond the arc, which is not where CJ should be spending most of his time. What was discouraging about this game is that it seems if UD had been able to play as well against Miami as they did against both UNCW and Western Illinois, they would be 3-0 right now. A team has got to be able to bring it's "A" game every time. Especially these Flyers, who are not going to be able to survive in the Atlantic 10 if they turn in lackluster performances on the road.

Looking Ahead
As Dayton moves forward, we ought to get a look at what we'll see the rest of the year. They have a neutral-site game against Wake Forest (very winnable, Wake Forest should be bad again), home against Buffalo (better be a W) and an away game at Murray State (a perennially tough mid-major school that should be a tough test) and then their premiere non-conference game of the year, at home against no. 15 Alabama.

Dayton could easily go 1-3 in that stretch; two games away from UD Arena, and one against a strong opponent they are not expected to beat. The games against Wake Forest and Murray State will be a key primer for the rest of UD's season. Will the Flyers be able to take care of business outside of Dayton? The past couple years the answer has been no, and it has meant mediocre results and disappointment for Dayton. If UD can manage to come away from this four-game stretch with a record of 5-2, then perhaps UD fans will have something to be excited about. If they play poorly like they did against Miami, then things will be set early for Dayton this year: no NCAA, no NIT, no CBI, maybe no A-10 Tournament.

Buckle up, it's going to be a big couple weeks.

UD at Miami (Ohio)

After a pretty damn encouraging win over Western Illinois where a whole lot more looked good than bad, UD made sure not to let any of its fans get their hopes up with a 72-67 overtime loss to Miami.

Reaction
Ugh pretty much sums it up. Despite playing without Chris Johnson for the entire first half, UD was holding a five to seven point lead on the Redhawks for most of the frame. They extended it to five (and trust me, five points felt like a significant amount for some reason) but could not put Miami away. In the end, Charlie Coles and crew got away with a W that should have been UD's by 10 in regulation. Dayton's players and coaches did not execute down the stretch, so they are riding the bus home a disappointing 1-1.

The Good
Paul Williams. The player everyone at UD has been waiting to take off didn't necessarily do so tonight, but he had a great game. Williams was 8-13 from the field and 4-6 from three, with some of those shots coming in big moments in a close game. He finished the game with 20 points to lead all scorers. Perhaps most shocking of all, he was aggressive on offense, looking for his own shot. It was like PW knew the Flyers needed him to carry them, so he obliged. You watch a game like this from Williams and wonder why he doesn't score 14 a game. I know he's not going to go 4-6 from three every game, but the way he went to the basket at times and created open looks for himself on the perimeter? He displayed an arsenal tonight. It would be great if that arsenal didn't just show up every now and again throughout this season.

The Bad
Kevin Dillard after the first few minutes. Yeah, there wasn't much good to this one. Dillard was looking like a star in the early going, converting two and-1s early on and managing the game well. He made a couple nice plays late going to the bucket, but a quick glance at his stat sheet shows that it wasn't Dillard's greatest night. He scored 11 points, but went just 4-12 from the field (two bad shooting nights in a row for him). He had six assists, but six turnovers to go with them (unacceptable for a starting point guard. Even if he had 20 assists, six TOs is too many). Not to mention he made the final turnover of the game, icing it for the Redhawks. I still like this guy, and think he's going to be good for UD, but Tuesday night he brought more negatives than positives to the table.

The big men. Against Western Illinois, Josh Benson and Matt Kavanaugh combined for 36 points and 12 rebounds. Against Miami? 12 and nine. It should be said Miami's big men presented a much bigger challenge for those two than Western Illinois' did. But when a team has two starters combine for 12 points, 9 boards, and have absolutely no answer for the opponents' big man on defense down the stretch, it's time to be worried. Julian Mavunga had a bad game, and still finished with 17. He abused Kavanaugh badly enough to cause Archie Miller to sub him out at the end of the game. When Benson stepped up to guard Mavunga, he was abused as well. Last year Chris Wright guarded Mavunga down the stretch and kept him from scoring for the most part. This time, the Flyers had no one with the right combination of strength and quickness to shut him down. And that's before you factor in the seemingly endless parade of moving screens set by Kavanaugh and Luke Fabrizius. I don't know how a college basketball player can play for 13 years and not know how to set a screen, but neither of those two do.

Archie Miller. Dayton's coach, who I believe has brought a better system into Dayton than the previous one used by Brian Gregory, still made some huge mistakes in the game's final five minutes that could have made the difference in a contest like this one. Dayton got the ball after trading baskets with just over a minute left in a tie game at 59-59, and held onto it for the entire shot clock before not scoring. Miami was able to rebound the ball and then had an opportunity for the last shot of regulation. Miller needed to have his players work more quickly on the possession and put up a shot in the 50-45 second range. That way, UD would be in the driver's seat for the final possession of the game. There is something to be said for getting a good shot, but there's more to be said for your chances of scoring one basket on two possessions instead of one. Then, with UD down two and under a minute left in overtime, Miller was content to play defense. The Redhawks worked the ball to Mavunga, who scored easily and Dayton never recovered. Dayton had to foul in that situation. Up to that point, Miami had been just mediocre from the free throw line. UD could have fouled and forced someone other than Mavunga to beat them. The big man had gotten hot at the end of regulation and in OT, so it was not the right move to allow Miami a chance to give him the ball.

There was plenty of other bad in this game from UD. Chris Johnson was in foul trouble throughout, and limited himself. He can't do that. Not only is he one of UD's better offensive threats, but the team is really poor on the glass without him. CJ needs to be in the game whenever he's not scheduled to be on the bench for a rest. I'd rather the player he's defending score than he pick up a foul to prevent a basket early in a game, like he did Tuesday. Josh Parker continues to be a cancer to UD. He "only" committed five turnovers in this game, but most of his passes were deflected or did not reach the intended target. In an offense that is supposed to flow, Parker brings things to a screeching halt more often than not.

This game was a sad reminder of what UD fans hate to think about: Dayton doesn't have a whole lot to work with this season. Things are going to be tougher than normal for them. In years past, these type of mistakes might have flown more under the radar because UD would have rebounded better or had more players on the bench to step up and contribute. But with so few players available, small mistakes are going to be magnified and more costly. After some high spirits following Western Illinois, it's back to the drawing board after Miami. There is still plenty of time for the Flyers to improve on what they need to, but if they don't improve, that sixth-place preseason projection for the A-10 is going to be way too high.

UD vs. Western Illinois

College basketball season is here! And while I'm sure most of the country is more interested in hearing about North Carolina or Kentucky or Ohio State, I don't care about what they're doing at the beginning of the season. It will mostly consist of dismantling weak teams. No, I'd much rather write about my University of Dayton Flyers, the band of lovable underachievers that have (mostly) tortured me since I decided on attending UD. And while my hope is for UD's early season to consist of mostly blowouts based on the team's they'll be playing, that's not likely. Even if the games do play out well for UD, it will be very interesting to see, because UD is sporting a new coach, new offensive system, and a very different cast of players from what they've had in the past. That's why I'll be writing some sort of reaction to every UD game this season (unfortunately I don't get to attend many of them, so these reactions will occasionally have to be based off the radio casts and box scores). And it began today with an 87-58 win over Western Illinois.

Reaction
The game started with UD looking like typical UD: Sloppy at the beginning of the season, playing down to its competition, not playing great defense, getting involved in a closer game than they should be in. The Flyers trailed for much of the first half, but finished strong and took a 41-38 lead into halftime. Obviously giving up 38 points to Western Illinois is horrible, but Dayton corrected a lot of errors in the second half and absolutely dominated, outscoring the Fighting Leathernecks (awesome nickname, by the way, West Ill definitely beats UD out in that category) 46-20.

The thing that kept running through my mind in the second half was how different this seemed from the way UD usually starts the season. As far back as the daytonflyers.com archives go back on men's basketball (the 2004-05 season), this was UD's highest margin of victory in its first regular season game. UD only beat Wofford by three and East Tennessee state by four in a couple recent season-openers. So as far as starting strong, a job well-done by Archie Miller and crew. Now, let's not get carried away. Western Illinois was picked in the preseason to finish ninth in the Summit League, a conference that will only produce one NCAA Tournament team this year through an automatic bid. So UD should have stomped the Leathernecks. But they did, and there's something to be said for taking care of business.

The Good
Josh Benson and Matt Kavanaugh. Is this the first year since Sean Finn that UD will get good play from its frontcourt? Maybe. Benson and Kav were Dayton's two leading scorers, netting 21 and 15 points, respectively (tying a career high for Kav). What's more, they actually looked pretty good doing it. Both displayed a couple post moves, and Kav was all over the offensive glass. I'm not willing to get too excited about these performances yet because (a) once again, the opponent was Western Illinois, starting 6-7 Terrell Parks at center and (b) Kav scored 15 at Seton Hall and looked phenomenal, then disappeared enough that you might not have known he was on the team the rest of the season. I'm excited for both guys, but a bit more optimistic about Benson, who showed more flashes last season. Maybe the new number he's sporting this year will help transform him into the big man UD needs.

Kevin Dillard. Dillard was only 2-8 from the field, but the Flyers' starting point guard (and probably the biggest key to their success this season) dished out nine assists and had zero turnovers in his 19 minutes. Whenever Dillard was running the offense, he looked like he was in complete control of the game as well. He pushed the ball well, penetrated, looked to set his teammates up, and never really got himself into trouble with the ball. I was impressed. If he can ratchet up his offense a bit and go something more like 4-8 in an average game, and still put good assist to turnover numbers, he'll be giving UD exactly what it needs. I'm excited to keep watching Dillard play.

The new offense. With Brian Gregory gone most UD fans knew that the substitutions would drop off significantly. That was also going to be forced on Archie Miller due to his lower number of players this year. But it was still refreshing to see players play extended stretches in the game, and not have guys get yanked while they're in the middle of a hot streak because its their time in the rotation. Based on game one, it appears Miller is looking to use a core of seven players (Benson, Kav, Dillard, Josh Parker, Chris Johnson, Paul Williams, Devin Oliver) with two others filling the gaps and (hopefully) giving quality minutes and the Flyers a little bit different look (Luke Fabrizius and Alex Gavrilovic). I think that is the right way to go. Gavrilovic's minutes were a bit higher in the first game than I suspect Miller would have preferred, but that was more due to Benson getting in foul trouble. Overall, the Flyers' game seemed to have a bit more flow to it. And the weave at the top of the key was never run. Not once.

The Bad
Josh Parker. UD's No. 1 gunner did not look good in this year's debut, much like he didn't look good for the entirety of last season. He scored 11 points, but went 4-9 from the field and 2-7 from the three-point line (he played the most minutes on the team with 30). He doesn't bring much to the table as a point guard (don't let his six assists from this game fool you, that won't happen often) or on defense, so if Parker is not doing well on offense he's more a liability than anything else. I can stomach a 4-9 from him, if it weren't for the fact that most of the misses came from him jacking up a contested, perhaps off-balance three when there is still plenty of time on the shot clock. It sometimes seems like Parker is keeping a running tab in his head, keeping track of his attempts. "Let me think here, I haven't shot our last three possessions. I just got the ball, and I really need to shoot, so I'm not going to worry about passing or creating offense. Better to just duck and chuck. Brick? O well, at least I scratched that itch."

Chris Johnson. The guy who needs to be leading UD in scoring this year with about 16 a game did not play well to open the season. In 25 minutes, Johnson went 3-8 from the field (2-6 from three) and scored eight points. He still delivered a fantastic effort on the glass, leading UD with 10 boards. The real problem I had with Johnson's game today was that he did not make his presence felt in a big way throughout. He sat around the perimeter for too long (as evidenced by him only attempting two two-point shots). He didn't even attempt a foul shot all game, which is where CJ can really get points because he is so excellent at the line. He's got to be more aggressive than that. My heart skipped a beat at one point in the game when UD threw the ball to CJ in the post, and he made a good pass to an open Benson for a jump shot. The shot didn't go in, but it was good offense, and absolutely the type of thing UD needs to be doing with CJ all season. He's a great shooter, but a better athlete. Get him the ball closer the basket every now and again, where contact is more likely, and let him try to make a play. I liked seeing it once this game, and hope to see it more in the future.

Overall, it was an encouraging way for Dayton to start its season. The Flyers are one-for-one in having walk-ons play this season, which is a good indication that you played well. Next up is an entirely different animal. UD will travel to Miami, who they always seem to play terribly (but usually squeak out a win) against. Miami is not expected to be good this year (preseason fourth place in the East division of the Mid-American Conference), but their defense and dictation of pace in games has consistently given UD trouble. We should learn much more about the Flyers in their second game.