A break from Buddhism

Well, it's my worst day of studying today, and it is time to take a break from it all.  Buddhism has occupied most of my day today, along with the Mets earlier on (they wasted another great Santana outing, hooray).  Now, however, it is time to turn to the goings on in sports.  Today, there is something bothering me, and it deals with the NBA playoffs.

If you are not aware, Dwight Howard elbowed 76ers center Samuel Dalembert after grabbing a rebound.  It was deliberate, but not what I would call dirty. He was whistled and given a technical foul for it.  Great job by the officials in my opinion.  Now there is a huge deal being made out of the whole deal, and it has resulted in Howard being suspended for the next game in the series.  This is absurd.  First off, Howard wasn't even given a flagrant foul, it was a technical foul.  You shouldn't be suspended for a technical foul.  Second off, Howard also elbowed his teammate Courtney Lee and he will be out for the game 6 also.  Basically, this suspension is the NBA deciding that they want a game 7 in what has been a closer series than many expected.  Without their star and a key role player, I don't see how the Magic can pick up a win on the road.  The NBA should be ashamed of themselves.

In a related incident, the Bulls-Celtics series continued to be incredible.  They had another overtime game which the Celtics won to take a 3-2 lead.  With 3 seconds left the Bulls had the ball and were down 2.  Brad Miller got free on the inbound, took a dribble to the hoop and went up for what should have been a routine layup, until Rajon Rondo came flying in and smacked him in the face hard.  Rondo was whistled for the foul, Miller went to the line and missed the free throws, Celtics won.  People are now complaining that a flagrant foul should have been called on Rondo--get out of here.  That was a great hard foul late in a game.  It could have been called a flagrant foul--but that doesn't mean it should have.  People are now acting like the non-call cost the Bulls the game.  News flash--it didn't.  Even if the flagrant was called, Miller would have presumably missed the foul shot (since he did that anyway), and then the Bulls would have had the exact same inbound as before--down two, except now with less time to play.  Rondo's play was not dirty.  He admits that he knew he had no chance of getting the ball, so he just swiped.  That's the NBA; that's protecting a lead; that's how you win games some of the time.  It's that simple.  What really stinks about this whole deal is that people are not focusing on the game anymore--it was an awesome game.  These two teams went into overtime again, and then everyone seems to have forgotten about the 3 clutch shots Paul Pierce hit in the final 90 seconds of that game.  He was great.  The Celtics had no one else left with Ray Allen fouling out, and Paul Pierce stepped up just like everyone has been waiting for him to.  I'd look for it to happen again in game 6.

I guess my point is this:  stop worrying about the officials and the suspensions, and start worrying about the games.  Other than the Cavs-Pistons series and that 58 point win by the Nuggets, the NBA playoffs have been great so far.  That's why I want Dwight Howard in there still.  He didn't cheat, he didn't play dirty, and he is great to watch.  Let him play, and we'll be in store for more great games.

Ollie, Ollie, Ox in Free

Missed a post from yesterday, I apologize to my incredibly large following.  However, we will be getting back on track today seeing as I don't have to do quite as much studying.  I would like to point out before I start today's topic that the statistics in my last post were much more attractive looking when I was writing the post than they appeared in the actual blog.  I will find a way to amend this issue for this weeks experiment in statistics.

Now, on to today's topic:  Mets' starter Oliver Perez, also known as my least favorite player in the Majors.  I read a story on ESPN.com today that said Mets' manager Jerry Manuel is going to give Perez one more chance this season.  He is currently on a ridiculous three year, $36 million contract.  Way way way way too much for a guy who had an ERA of 4.22 last year and a record of only 15-10.  Perez has really only had one good season in his career (2002), and he only went 12-10 because he was playing for Pittsburgh.  This year, he is off to a 1-2 start, with an ERA of 9.31.  His strikeout to walk ratio is in danger of falling below 1.0, as he has issued 15 walks to just 18 strikeouts on the season.

After giving up seven runs on nine hits and three walks in 4.1 innings to the WASHINGTON NATIONALS, Manuel has said he will be giving Perez one more chance.  Perez's next start is scheduled for Saturday against the Philadelphia Phillies.  As much as I hope the Mets beat their rivals, I kind of hope Perez doesn't pitch very well.  He is just not worth it to have in the starting rotation.  Plus, I think Perez could be an incredible middle reliever.  It seems like every start he goes the first three innings and looks like he is going to pitch a complete game.  Then the wheels come off.  That screams relief pitcher to me.  At any rate, I'm tired of him in the starting lineup, and I hope Manuel is looking for a dominant performance, like at least a quality start, out of Perez.  4 earned runs through 5 and a third innings should not be good enough to save his job.  He is killing the Mets right now, moreso than any other pitcher, and it needs to change one way or another.

Experiment in Statistics, Week 1

I mentioned in an earlier post that I would be keeping track of my own new statistic in an attempt to see if it will be indicative of the of the way the standings play out.  My statistic doesn't have a finalized name yet because I am trying to come up with a cool name like established baseball stats such as WHIP or VORP.  The statistic measures a team's offensive efficiency by seeing what percentage of baserunners a team is able to bring home and score.  To measure it, I took every method of getting on base--hits, walks, hit by pitch, intentional walks, and errors the other team committed, and put the number of runs they scored over that.  The result is a number similar to batting average indicating how many runs a team scores per man that gets on base.  For example, if a team has had 100 players get on base this season, and they have scored 30 runs, then their Runs per man on base (RMOB?) number would be .300.  That means that for every man a team gets on base, they score three tenths of a run, or for every 10 runners a team gets on base, they score 3 runs.  With the method of the stat being explained, I am open to cool acronym ideas for the stat, and open to better ways of expressing the number than the .300 variety.  If you would like to see how many men on base a team requires to score each run, I can attempt to play that out.  Love to hear the suggestions.  That being said, here are the results of the season so far. (RMOB as of Thursday April 23)

AL Team RMOB NL Team RMOB

1. Texas Rangers .458 1. St. Louis Cardinals .384

2. Detroit Tigers .388 2. Florida Marlins .382

3. Cleveland Indians .384 3. Philadelphia Phillies .381

4. Toronto Blue Jays .383 4. Colorado Rockies .375

5. Baltimore Orioles .376 5. LA Dodgers .366

6. New York Yankees .373 6. Pittsburgh Pirates .350

7. Seattle Mariners .366 7. San Diego Padres .344

8. Boston Red Sox .365 8. Milwaukee Brewers .328

9. Chicago White Sox .358 9. Chicago Cubs .320

10. LA Angels .347 10. Atlanta Braves .319

11. Minnesota Twins .341 11. Cincinnatti Reds .317

12. Tampa Bay Rays .339 12. Arizona DBacks .308

13. Kansas City Royals .321 13. New York Mets .301

14. Oakland Athletics .306 14. San Fran Giants .291

15. Washington Nationals .290

16. Houston Astros .263

Observations:  largely, the runs scored per man on base statistic is pretty accurate in showing how successful a team is.  The top teams in the NL, the Cardinals and Marlins, are both atop their divisions.  The Dodgers, Padres, Pirates and Phillies also are in the top half of the NL in RMOB, and are off to pretty good starts.  The only team that is doing well so far that doesn't have a high RMOB in the NL is the Cincinnatti Reds.  They are 9-6, but boast an RMOB of only.317.  Their pitching has been good, but I think the Reds have won several ugly games, and that is partially why they are so low in the rankings.

In the AL it is not quite as accurate, but still not bad.  The Blue Jays, Mariners, Yankees and Red Sox boast the best four records in the AL, and they all occupy spots in the top 8 of the league.  The Athletics, Rays and Twins are near the bottom in both the division standings and the RMOB rankings. 

The main anomalies that stick out are the Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians and the Colorado Rockies.  The Rangers are scoring almost half the time they get a man on base, which is absurd, but they are not doing well on the season, only 6-9.  Similar to last year, the Rangers seem to be extremely entertaining offensively, but cannot get it done with pitching or fielding, so they are not very successful yet.  The Indians RMOB is near the top of the entire MLB at .384, but they had one game in which they scored 22 runs, a number that would seem to skew the statistic with such a small sample size so far.  The Rockies also have a pretty high RMOB at .375, despite being only 5-9.  They have just been very efficient, but not scored many runs.  They have only gotten 176 men on base as of April 23, good for 3rd worst in the NL.  While they have been efficient, it has only resulted in 66 runs, which has not been good enough to result in wins.

All in all, I am encouraged by the results of the experiment so far, and I hope they continue to be accurate as the season progresses

Boston

I missed a post yesterday, but I'm back in the saddle today.  I am going to talk about something that I don't think gets the attention it deserves...the Boston Marathon.

The marathon is one of the toughest events in sports.  Anyone who completes one during their lifetime has done something truly incredible in my eyes.  I was a pretty good distance runner once upon a time, but have never mustered up the courage to run in even a half marathon, let alone the 26.2 mile monster that is a marathon.  It is something that takes extreme dedication for months, often with no payoff other than personal satisfaction (hopefully).  You might get a pat on the back from someone who finished near you and hear congratulations from your family and close friends that knew you were running the race, but that is about it.

While doing any marathon is amazing, running in the Boston Marathon is at another level.  Unlike other marathons, you have to qualify to run in Boston.  When you go to Boston, according to my father, it is a completely different atmosphere.  Everyone is excited, they have a marathon village set up there.  When you are running at Boston, the entire course is lined with fans cheering you on.  In other marathons, outside of the start and finish, you won't hear very much noise other than from the volunteers handing out water and electrolytes.  When you run at Boston, everyone manages to find out, not just the people you tell.  Winning the Boston Marathon is pretty much as prestigious as winning the marathon at the Olympics.  Boston is that big.  It is the greatest road race in the world, and I think that more people should know about it each year.

Per usual, Kenyans and Ethiopians dominated the marathon run on Monday.  Kenyan Salina Kosgei won the women's race in 2:32:16, and Ethiopian Deriba Merga won the men's race in 2:08:42.  That time puts Merga's pace at just under five minutes per mile.  That is ridiculous.  That is something that many people cannot even comprehend.  Even as a runner, I have no comprehension of that kind of consistency and endurance.  It is truly an incredible accomplishment, and I hope awareness of these kinds of things increases as people learn to appreciate them.

UD Basketball, Duke Basketball

Recently stories have come out pertaining to my two favorite college basketball teams (The Dayton Flyers and the Duke Blue Devils) taking on transfers.  It is pretty incredible how similar the stories are in terms of how they will work out for the teams.  Most college basketball fans have heard about Stephen Curry's younger brother Seth transferring from Liberty to Duke next year.  Curry led all freshmen in scoring last year, averaging 20.6 points per game.  He will not be eligible to play next year, but in the 2011 season.  With junior guards Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson vacating their spots after next season, it will be perfect timing for Curry to step in as a redshirt sophomore and contribute to the Blue Devils, hopefully with some similar numbers to those he put up at Liberty.  Duke will be looking for a scorer, and Curry seems to fit the bill.

Doug Harris wrote a story in the Dayton Daily News about Drake sophomore guard Josh Parker accepting a scholarship to transfer to Dayton next year.  Parker will be filling the scholarshiip vacated by ex-Flyer Stephen Thomas.  Thomas is transferring away from UD in order to play more minutes for his final two years.

The similarities become scary when one considers the circumstances into which Parker will be transferring.  He, like Curry, will not be playing until the 2011 basketball season.  That will be just in time to fill in for junior guards London Warren, Rob Lowery, and Marcus Johnson as they will graduate after next season.  While not putting up quite as gawdy of numbers as Curry, Parker did average 10.7 points per game last year, which would put him as the third leading scorer on UD this past season.  It will be excellent timing for Parker to come to UD, as he will be able to come in and hopefully solidify a strong backcourt with star recruit Juwan Staten out of Thurgood Marshall.  I am excited about seeing what both of these transfers can do in the coming years.

My second first day in a row

The title of this post may seem confusing, but let me explain.  Yesterday was my first day as a blogger.  Today was my first day as the official sports editor of Flyer News.  I sat in the Flyer News office from 11 am to 6 pm, editing stories, and mixing it up with the rest of the staff.  It took forever and some of it was really a pain, but I had a good time for the most part.  We got to have pizza, and there are some other members of the staff that I get along with very well.  All in all, it was a good albeit tiring day.  Placing pictures is awful, but editing and writing stories is great.  It balances out, and eventually I will get better at all of it.

Now, on to the sports.  I have decided to attempt to analyze the New York Mets this year vs. last year in the hopes that they will do better this year.  I think that they have addressed their need in the bullpen, but I think that in order to make the playoffs this year, the Mets hitting will have to improve.  Specifically, they will need to improve their hitting with runners on base and with 2 out.  That is what all of the best teams do.  They steal wins by stringing hits together with 2 outs.  Unfortunately today, the mets could not do just that.  They lost to the Brewers 4-2 today, and the story was the Mets inability to bring baserunners home.  They got those 2 runs on 12 hits.  That is way too many men to leave on base.  In addition, the Mets could not come up with hits in the clutch.  In the bottom of the sixth inning, The mets were down 3 to 1.  With 2 out and none on base, Carlos Beltran hit a single, which Gary Sheffield followed up with a double.  With runners on second and third, Fernando Tatis came to the plate and flied out.  In the bottom of the seventh Carlos Delgado grounded into a double play with 1 out and Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy on 1st and 2nd.  In the bottom of the eighth the first two batters got on base, and then Tatis struck out on 3 pitches, after which Omir Santos lined into a somewhat unfortunate double play.  All of these situations were times when runs should have been scored, and they weren't.  The Mets will need to hit better.  As my stat tracking has a larger sample size, I will start to come out with those numbers.

NBA Playoffs first round

My first post as a blogger comes on a fortunate day for a sports fan:  the NBA Playoffs started today, which gives me plenty to talk about.  For several years I stopped being a fan of the NBA mainly because of the strike and half-season.  However, recently I have become a fan again, and the NBA playoffs have always maintained their magic in my eyes.  I am going to attempt to make predictions for the first round of the NBA playoffs.  Hopefully I will be able to improve on my pretty abysmal college basketball bracket, and get my predictions back on track.  I'll begin with the Eastern Conference, because I think most of those series are easier.

First in the East is the Cavs-Pistons series.  The first game in this series has technically already concluded, but it goes along with what I and the rest of the world would have picked anyway.  The Cavs won, and they are going to win the series.  The only question is how many games it will take.  I think the Cavs will pull out a sweep, and my reasons are simple.  They have the best player on the court, the best point guard on the court, they are hungry for this playoff run and they have the Pistons number, having beaten them the past couple times they have met in the playoffs when the Pistons were the better team.  This time around, the Cavs are the better team, so they will win.

Next is the Celtics-Bulls 2-7 series.  The Celtics are going to be hurting all playoffs without Kevin Garnett, but they are obviously still a very good team.  They have played a significant amount of the season without KG, and done pretty well.  The first game has completed in this series as well, and it was a surprising Bulls win.  Statistics say that 79% of teams that win game 1 go on the win the series.  Paul Pierce will make the Celtics a part of that select 21%.  He is one of the most clutch players in the league, and steps up in big games time and again.  A young Bulls team will not get it done in a seven game series.  Celtics in 6 is my pick.

The 3-6 Game is between the Orlando Magic and the Philadelphia 76ers.  Once again, the better seed will prevail.  The Magic are a 59 win team and the 76ers are a 500 one.  There is good reason for that.  The matchups in this game favor the Magic.  I don't know who on the 76ers can completely shut down Hedo Turkoglu, and I know that none of them can contain Dwight Howard.  Magic in 5.

The 4-5 series in the East is maybe the best in the entire playoffs.  The Hawks vs. the Heat will go to seven games, and I think if it goes that far, it will not be easy to deny Dwyane Wade.  The Hawks played incredibly well in the playoffs last year, and took the Celtics to seven games in the first round.  I just think that you want to have the best player in a series, especially in the seventh game.  Dwyane Wade is the best and most clutch player of these teams, and he will get them through when it matters. Heat in 7

The Western conference playoffs are a bit more complicated, because there is such a log jam from seeds 2 to 7.  The first series to talk about is Lakers-Jazz.  Despite the fact that the Jazz match up pretty well against the Lakers, Carlos Boozer is not playing nearly his best basketball and the Lakers are my pick to win the championship.  Therefore, I think that the Lakers will win in five games.

Next is the 2-7 matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the New Orleans Hornets.  This is a series that I am very split on.  On the one hand, Chris Paul is the best player in the series, and I think that is the most important thing for a team in the NBA playoffs.  On the other hand, the Nuggets have a pretty good point guard of their own in Chauncey Billups.  The game breaker for me though, is Carmelo Anthony.  Of these two teams, he is the player that I would want to give the ball to at the end of the game.  According to 82games.com, Melo has scored the third most points in the clutch (last five min of fourth qtr or overtime in a five-point game or less) and boasts a higher shooting percentage than Kobe or Lebron.  That is big in a series that I think will go the distance.  Nuggets in 7.

The 3-6 matchup become much more intriguing near the end of the season.  It is the Spurs vs. Mavericks, and the Spurs are going to be hurting due to the loss of Manu Ginobli throughout the playoffs.  The Mavericks got extremely hot at the end of the season, and Dirk has had one of his best seasons in his career.  I am convinced that the Spurs are old enough that they will not win two series in these playoffs without Manu.  The question though, is will they win one, and I think the answer is yes.  I don't see anyone who can guard Tony Parker, and I think he will be too much for the Mavs to handle.  Spurs in 7.

Final matchup of the first round:  Trailblazers vs. Rockets.  I do not see a go-to scorer for the Rockets, and there is no doubt that there is one for the Blazers in Brandon Roy, who happens to be the best player in the series.  The Blazers also have athletic big men that Yao could have trouble defending.  I think that the Blazers takes this series down in 6.