Mid-Major Report: 2/27

For the second week in a row, the No. 1 team in the Mid-Major report has gone a disappointing 0-2, and the rankings have shaken again. I wrote about a month ago in a report about how incredible it was that we had so many mid-major teams delivering the season-long performances that they were: Murray State undefeated, Creighton, San Diego State, Harvard and Saint Mary's with two losses, Wichita State and UNLV with just three apiece. Now as we enter the final week of regular season play (some teams have already finished their regular seasons), many of those teams have come back to a more normal level. With New Mexico's losses, the best three teams from the Mountain West have six losses each. Saint Mary's and Creighton have five. Harvard has four. These teams are all still excellent, but those records are much more typical of the best mid-major teams in a given season. Should we be concerned about the fact that most of these teams have accrued half or more of their losses in the latter part of the season? In some cases, absolutely (Creighton, San Diego State). In others, I wouldn't fret too much.

As always, check out the initial mid-major report for information on how I make my ranking decisions.

Dropped Out: Saint Louis (0-1 last week lost at Rhode Island), Temple (1-1 last week, lost by 10 to St. Joe's), Harvard (1-1 last week, lost at home to Penn)
Outside looking in: San Diego State, Long Beach State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee, Weber State

10. Iona (23-6, 53rd in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
The Gaels are back! Having locked up the MAAC regular season championship (at 14-3, they have a two game lead with one game to play) on the strength of a four-game win-streak, Iona has done just about as well as it could to secure an at-large bid in the tournament. Unfortunately, I don't the selection committee will be inviting the Gaels unless they win the MAAC Tournament. Which is why everyone needs to root for Iona in the next week and a half. There are certain teams you can watch and know that they are the real deal, that they would play well against just about anybody in the country; Iona is one of those teams. It is the highest scoring team in the nation (82.9 points per game), shoots just under 50 percent for the season, and has the nations leading assists man in Scott Machado (10 assists per game). Iona plays an entertaining, up-tempo style and can score with anyone in the country. It is a team good enough to get an at-large bid, but I suspect its strength of schedule and lack of good wins will doom Iona if it does not win its conference tournament.

9. Virginia Commonwealth (25-6, 47 Pomeroy)
My dad has been blindly biased toward the Colonial Athletic Association for a couple years now. Certainly, it has been an exemplary mid-major conference, with two different teams making the final four and receiving multiple bids to the tournament several times in the past ten years. This year, my dad's love for the CAA is burning as bright as ever, but the rest of the country (myself included) is not sold on them. Particularly in terms of RPI (flawed, but it is a method of measure), the CAA looks pretty bad. But Virginia Commonwealth has now won 14 of its last 15 games (the one loss was on a 30 foot buzzer-beater to George Mason), and seems to be playing pretty well. In past years, a 25-6 record would have VCU as a lock in the tournament, no questions asked. But this year, Shaka Smart's team decided to play an extremely weak schedule, and lose the only games it did play against decent competition (Seton Hall, Alabama, Drexel). Still, looking at the bubble tells me the Rams should have done enough so far to qualify for an at-large bid. South Florida has currently played its way into a bid, according to Joe Lunardi; VCU beat USF by 25 early in the season. VCU also happens to be much hotter right now that USF has been at any point this year. But the weak schedule will kill them. In my mind, unless VCU is able to advance as far as the conference championship game (not making it there would mean another loss to a weaker CAA team), it will be overlooked come Selection Sunday.

8. Brigham Young (24-7, 38 Pomeroy)
The Cougars lost (unsurprisingly) at Gonzaga last week, but came back and closed out their season with a 76-66 win against Portland. While the loss to Gonzaga means BYU finished third instead of second in the WCC, the win afterward still rounded out a fine season post-Jimmer Fredette for BYU. The Cougars can score with the best of the country (79 points per game), and are a dangerous three-point shooting team, which is always something to watch out for come tournament time. They play one of the most up-tempo styles in the country and actually have a pretty good defense to go along with it (22nd in adjusted defense at kenpom). If the Cougars can pick up a win over Gonzaga or St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament, it would do wonders for the team's seeding when the NCAA Tournament is picked.

7. New Mexico (22-6, 15 Pomeroy)
Last week, after beating San Diego State and UNLV, I wrote that New Mexico finally appeared to be living up to its lofty ranking at kenpom.com. After losing to Colorado State and TCU this week, however, I don't think there can be much doubt that the Lobos are a team that has just played to Pomeroy's system well, and not a top 15 (or earlier, top 10) team in the country. New Mexico is still a good team, and could get back on track with some wins in the Mountain West Tournament, but you have to be concerned about a group that can take a two-game lead in the conference with just four games to play, then give that lead up in its next two games. I'm concerned about a team that can't close, whether its during an individual game or in a season-long competition. New Mexico had its shot to close UNLV and SDSU out, but couldn't get the job done against mediocre competition.

6. Saint Mary's (25-5, 40 Pomeroy)
The other Gaels return to the list at number six by closing out their season with wins at Portland and at San Francisco. Knocking St. Mary's off the list last week was perhaps a bit strong, but they had the committee worried with losses in three of four games. Picking up wins on the road and securing the West Coast Conference title offered some assurance that St. Mary's has mostly righted the ship. Winning the WCC Tournament or at least losing to Gonzaga in the finals would offer even more assurance that St. Mary's is back. This teams remains one of my favorite mid-majors as far as watching them play. The Gaels play a real team game, with solid players at every position. They have an excellent general in Matthew Dellavedova, and with all their experience, I believe the Gaels will correct their mistakes and be strong as ever heading into the NCAAs.

5. Creighton (25-5, 39 Pomeroy)
After a 102-74 thrashing of Illinois State at home, Creighton has not exactly been inspiring. Their seven games since that win to close out the season: Lost 65-62 at Northern Iowa, lost 65-57 at Evansville, lost 89-68 home to Wichita State, won 88-69 at Southern Illinois, won 81-79 home to Long Beach State, won 93-92 (OT) home to Evansville, won 61-60 at Indiana State. Sure, Creighton recovered from its three straight losses and got four straight wins, but the final three were all escapes. Needing overtime to beat Evansville at home does not inspire confidence. The Blue Jays will (and should) be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament (maybe a 6 seed?) but unless they show me something in the MVC Tournament, I will be avoiding them like the plague come tournament time. They are playing mediocre basketball at the wrong time.

4. UNLV (24-6, 31 Pomeroy)
After its disappointing two-loss week while at No. 1 in the MMR, UNLV did what New Mexico could not this week: beat the weaker teams in the conference. The Rebels beat Boise State and Air Force at home, and pulled level in the Mountain West standings. Who knows what is going to happen in that conference now? No team has been willing or able to step up and take the title for itself. And none of the top three play each other the rest of the regular season. So it will be all about who can beat the lesser teams. UNLV may have the toughest road of the three to winning out, with games against Colorado State (beaten New Mexico and SDSU this season) and Wyoming (beat UNLV earlier). It's time to really see what these MWC teams are made of.

3. Drexel (25-5, 45 Pomeroy)
When discussing VCU, we discussed the CAA. If Drexel does not win the CAA tournament and does not get an at-large bid, we will have our biggest snub of the year without question. The fact that scenario is even a possibility is insane to me. Even if we are accepting that the CAA is not as good as it has been in years past, it is at least still decent competition. And Drexel finished its season with 17 straight wins, most if it against that decent competition. What else is there a team can do to earn itself a bid than win incessantly. The Dragons are very good this year. Their two losses in the conference came early in the season when they were not at full strength. It's been almost two months since they suffered a loss. Give Drexel its due, please.

2. Murray State (28-1, 48 Pomeroy)
I was expecting it to take much longer for the Racers to climb this high in the MMR so quickly. But once again, they've been winning while everybody else (almost) has been losing. The Racers closed their season with wins at Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech, and now we need to root for them to win the OVC Tournament. Another team from that conference winning would be a disaster for the bubble, and that team would just be heading to the tourney to get thrashed. Just a couple more wins, Murray State. They've been doing it all year, so a couple more shouldn't be too much to ask.

1. Wichita State (26-4, 8 Pomeroy)
Are the Shockers really a top 10 team in the country? After seeing them and some of the teams surrounding them in the kenpom rankings (North Carolina, Wisconsin, Missouri, Duke, Georgetown), I'm starting to believe. The Shockers finishe 26-4 and won the Missouri Valley Conference on the strength of wins at Illinois State and home against Drake last week. The way they have finished this season, an MVC Tournament Championship would put them in the 3-seed tier in my mind. After losing at home to Creighton on New Year's Eve, Wichita has won 16 of 17, and looked good doing it. They start four seniors and a junior, and have six different players who can be relied on to score in double figures in a given game. Watch out, March. The Shockers look primed to make some noise.