While yesterday's picks for the games resulted in just s 2-2 performance (Syracuse and Ohio State being the ones I got correct), I will also pat myself on the back for correctly prescribing the formula for Louisville to win. The Cardinals got their defense on and played a game in the 50s (in Michigan State's case, the 40s), and turned in an impressive win. Kudos to Florida for totally proving me wrong. Billy Donovan's crew dominated Marquette in the second half, outplaying and out-hustling them. Some better shooting from Marquette would have made that game closer down the stretch, but I don't think the result would have been different. Florida was the better team Thursday night. And in a best of one series, sometimes being on your game on a given night is what matters most.
Xavier vs. Baylor, 7:15 p.m.
On paper this looks like an easy win for Baylor. Baylor is the superior team physically and is still waiting on a good game in the tournament from its best player, Perry Jones III. But you can never really count Xavier out, can you? Four Sweet 16s in the past five years. It makes me sick to hear about it, because this year Xavier shouldn't have even been in the tournament. A Matt Kavanaugh layup would have done the trick. But Xavier survived that game, and then survived Notre Dame and beat Lehigh. I do not like giving praise to the Musketeers, but somehow, they get into this type of situation year after year. And Baylor is a soft, vulnerable team. Xavier may not be likable, but they are definitely not soft. Gangsta and "zippin' 'em up" jokes aside, this is a tough team. And they have a guy who lives for the moment in Holloway. If the Bears come out the least bit lackadaisical, you can bet that Xavier will jump all over them, and that could all there is to this game. One would hope, however, that a team of college basketball players can find motivation to play hard in a Sweet 16 game, regardless of its opponent. I think Baylor does that, and we're finally done with Holloway in college basketball.
Ohio vs. North Carolina, 7:47 p.m.
In any given year of college basketball, if Ohio University were playing North Carolina in one of the early season tournaments held at a neutral site, like the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, most everyone would look at the names of the teams, think, "that's going to be a blowout," and probably not watch the game. Just because this is a Sweet 16 game does not mean it should be approached any differently. To get here Ohio has done some great things, and its game against South Florida in the third round was an extremely fun one to watch, but this is North Carolina. Kendall Marshall or not, they are superior to the Bobcats in every way. They can put out a front line of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, James Michael McAdoo and Harrison Barnes. How exactly is OU going to compete with that? They aren't. It's been a great ride for OU, but don't feel bad if you end up changing the channel or starting your Friday night pregame early in lieu of finishing this game.
Indiana vs. Kentucky, 9:45 p.m.
If the three games listed so far go the right way, March 23, 2012 will be the greatest NCAA Tournament night of my life in which a team I was rooting for didn't win the National Championship. Unfortunately, it is much more likely that Kentucky, North Carolina and Xavier will all win than it is that they will all lose. Of course, the pundits have reminded us a couple hundred thousand times that Indiana is responsible for Kentucky's sole loss this season. So sure, perhaps that will give IU some confidence heading into the game. But let's dissect how likely a repeat is for the Hoosiers. First off, that game was a home game for Indiana. This will be played on a neutral court. For anyone who will be watching his/her first basketball game tonight, that makes more than a small difference. In addition, it was a game in which Indiana possessed a hefty lead, but saw it vanish in no time when Kentucky flexed its muscle in the second half. And finally, it took a buzzer-beater from beyond the arc to secure the victory. Basically, it was the type of thing that only happens a couple times a season for a team, and it was only able to happen because Indiana had played a great game in its home gym on that day. To me, this has 15-20 point UK win written all over it. Then again, there hasn't been a single buzzer-beater all tournament long, so maybe...
North Carolina State vs. Kansas, 10:17 p.m.
This looks like the most intriguing matchup of the night. NC State has been playing excellent basketball, mainly through its big men, since the ACC Tournament. If not for a missed call on an offensive foul, the Wolfpack would have played for the ACC title, and had a great shot at beating Florida State. Since then, they've been dominant in the NCAA Tournament. They dispatched a very good San Diego State easily by executing a good game plan to perfection. But that was by exploiting a size advantage against the Aztecs. In the third round, NC State proved the win was no fluke by beating Georgetown and Henry Sims, a pretty good big man in his own right. Now, things only get tougher. The NC State front line will have to deal with Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey of Kansas, perhaps the best duo in the country (Zeller and Henson from UNC would be the other option). Kansas is coming off a lackluster performance against Purdue, but the Jayhawks survived Robbie Hummel's last stand. If Tyshawn Taylor and Robinson can get back on track and deliver typically strong games in the Sweet 16, my gut says Kansas is too good for NC State. But if they're a bit underwhelming again? We'll have an 11 seed in the Elite Eight for the second straight year.
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