We've made it through Championship Week. The 68 team bracket is out. Like most years, it contains its disappoints and its surprises. But there's no time to dwell on that nonsense anymore. Games start today, and while today and Wednesday's games don't feature any teams that I'll be picking to make the Final Four, one of them will showcase two teams that have been on and off the my Mid-Major Report all season long. And while the key to winning online contests like ESPN's Tournament Challenge is more about getting all the picks correct from the Elite Eight on, way more bragging rights can be gained from picking the big 13 over 4 or 12 over 5 upset early on, or correctly choosing a 10 or 11 seed to advance to the Sweet 16. So here we are, on the precipice of the dance, and here are some teams to keep your eye on, outside of the top eight seeds.
Iona
The Gaels do not belong on the tournament; let's get that out of the way. However, now that they have been selected, they should be taken very seriously. Iona boasts one of the best offenses in the country. Featuring the leader in the country in assists per game this season, Scott Machado, the Gaels seem to have 100 different guys that can just shoot the ball extremely well. It is why their field goal percentage has been in the top five all season long. Machado and Momo Jones will both likely be NBA players before it is all said an done. Any mid-major team with that kind of talent is going to be dangerous for an upset (over the past two years, Butler has lost two players to the NBA. They were a pretty decent mid-major squad). The bad news for the Gaels in this tournament is that they will have to get through a very good BYU team in order to even have a chance at an upset. The good news? If Iona does manage to dispatch the Cougars, they play Marquette in the second round. Marquette is an excellent team, but not one with great size. Marquette will not likely be able to exploit its athleticism against Iona, so size would be the next best option. But without much in the way of great big men (just great forwards), Marquette could be vulnerable here.
Davidson
My love for this Wildcats team is irrational. But I can't help it. Watching them play is just so much fun. They are a true team, getting contributions from every position, eight players deep. They have two excellent players in Demon Brooks and Jake Cohen, and a classic short-white-guard-who-shouldn't-be-good-but-is-because-he's-crafty player in Nik Cochran. And guess what? The Wildcats get to play Louisville in the first round. Yes, Louisville got hot and won the Big East Tournament, but it was one of the worst Big East Tournaments ever, and it's pretty common to have a hangover after winning all those games on consecutive days. Plus, the Cardinals might even be undersized playing against Davidson. I see this game as one going down to the wire. The key to me is whether Cohen can avoid foul trouble. The two games I've seen Davidson play this year, he has been unstoppable, but picked up too many fouls to keep playing. He must avoid that to give Davidson its best chance.
Long Beach State
Yep, the 12, 13 and 14 seeds all from the same region are teams to watch out for. It almost certainly won't happen, but how cool would it be if these teams all played on the weekend with a shot at the Sweet 16? Long Beach State played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country in the non-conference, and then ran through its conference play to a Big West title. As a result, the 49ers will not be even a little bit scared of New Mexico in the second round of the tournament. We all know about Casper Ware and what a great player he is (I hope), but what I really like about LBSU in the tournament is the team's coach, Dan Monson. Monson was Gonzaga's coach before Mark Few took over and was at the helm of the team when it made its first run as a Cinderella to the Elite Eight. Since then, Gonzaga has vaulted onto the national scene and recruits with the best in the country. Monson moved on to coach Minnesota, and had only limited success. Now, he's back where he belongs in the mid-major ranks, and doing extremely well again.
South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits are an excellent mid-major team led by an unbelievable guard in Nate Wolters. What is most impressive about Wolters is that he gets most of his scoring done inside the three-point line. He's not just an unbelievable shooter who can bomb it all day; he's a crafty, quicker-and-faster-than-you-think guard who can get to the rim, dish the ball effectively and also grab boards. It also helps that Wolters can rely on his teammates to knock down jump shots, like they did in the Summit League final to punch a ticket to the dance. South Dakota State has an interesting matchup in its first game of the tournament: Baylor. On the one hand, Baylor is very big, talented and athletic; that is what we saw when it beat Kansas in the Big-12 Tournament. On the other hand, Baylor has looked like one of the softer teams in the country this season--that is what we saw when the Bears lost to Kansas State and Iowa State this season (not bad teams by an stretch, but it just seemed like Baylor was weak in those games). So if South Dakota State runs into the right Baylor team Thursday, look out.
Montana
I was hoping and praying that Weber State would beat Montana in the Big Sky Finals, because Damian Lillard is amazing to watch. But the Grizz blew Weber State out and showed that there is no doubt they should be the team representing that conference in the tournament. Montana is another well-balanced group, and they have an excellent matchup in the first round: Wisconsin. Montana is like a small-conference doppelganger for Wisconsin, from what I've seen. Both get pretty balance scoring from a variety of players, and the big men can shoot the three as well as the guards. Montana doesn't have anybody quite as good as Jordan Taylor or Jared Berggren, but a strong shooting day could easily have them moving on. I've seen enough of Wisconsin's offensive disappearing to know that any day could be a 45-point performance.
St. Bonaventure
Another mid-major I like based solely on the matchup in the second round. Florida State is an excellent team, especially on defense. But to say that they can be offensively challenged would be a colossal understatement. The Seminoles have scored under 50 points three times this season, including an abysmal 41-point performance on a neutral court in a loss to Harvard. They've scored under 60 points another handful of times. Their inconsistency on offense just doesn't inspire much confidence. On the other hand, Andrew Nicholson has had four 30-point games this season. If the right intersection of those two things happen (FSU struggling shooting, Nicholson going off), the Bonnies could be playing on Sunday.
So, a 12 seed, two 13 seeds and three 14 seeds? Yup. It seems crazy just to look at that sentence. But all of those are real possibilities. That stems from the fact that we have great mid-major teams, but moreso from the fact that beyond the 1 and 2 seeds (other than Duke, which could definitely lose to Lehigh in the second round), there is no team that strikes me as good. There is no team that got screwed into a three seed, or had a rough patch but is actually an awesome team that will make a run. None of them make me shake in my little space boots, and that means they won't have their mid-major counterparts shaking either.
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