UD's shot to take down Xavier

When a Duke-North Carolina game is upcoming, the ESPN pundits typically end up speaking to a player from one or the other team. Every time, the conversation ends up going to the relationship between the players on the two teams. And typically, what we find out is that the Duke and UNC players do not hate each other like the fans and students of the two schools do. While they do play hard against each other on the court, they get along pretty well outside of their games against each other. They play pick-up games together and hang out.

The same may or may not be true for the Dayton and Xavier players. A story from last year quotes Chris Wright as saying he knows many Xavier players and gets along with some of them. Whatever the relationship between Chris Johnson and Tu Holloway may be, I prefer to think of it as one with no love lost. Same with that between Matt Kavanaugh and Kenny Frease. It's more fun to think of it that way, because it gives me reason number 1,743 why it would be sweet if Dayton were to beat Xavier in the Atlantic 10 Tournament Friday.

For the third year in a row, the Flyers and Musketeers will meet in the A-10 Tournament. Last year, Dayton upset Xavier in the quarterfinals and it was cool because UD was beating Xavier; that's always cool. Still, Dayton lost in the A-10 Finals to Richmond and did not make the NCAA Tournament; Xavier did. Two years ago, in the now-infamous (at least among UD fans) Rob Lowery "punch" game, Dayton lost late to Jordan Crawford and Tu Holloway and had its NCAA Tournament hopes dashed. Crawford and Xavier went on to have an excellent tournament. I was at that game, and had as sour a taste in my mouth as I can remember.

Reason No. 1 why it would be sweet if Dayton were to beat Xavier tomorrow? UD can repay the favor from two years ago. Xavier currently sits as one of the final four teams in the bracket in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, while Dayton is about the ninth team outside the field of 68. If they were to lose to Dayton, Xavier would finish the season at 19-12, and you would have to figure that it would end Xavier's hopes at an NCAA bid. To be 1-2 against a team from the same conference that is close to a bid, with similar records, RPIs and Kenpom ratings would be a dagger.

And how awesome would that be? Even if Dayton were to miss the tournament in the grand scheme of things, the possiblity of being 2-1 against Xavier and also being the cause of their demise from the dance is an enticing prospect. To know that Dayton had been better than Xavier in a year in which X was looking like one of the best teams in the country (ranked in the top 10 in the country early in the year), in Tu Holloway's senior year, gets me as excited as the thought of a night on the town with Katy Perry.

Now of course, I shouldn't get ahead of myself. Dayton still has to beat Xavier for any of these beautiful fantasies to come true. And that is going to be no easy task. Dayton played a great game in beating Xavier at home, and then played pretty well but still lost in overtime to the Musketeers at the Cintas Center. Holloway and Mark Lyons were pretty incredible (it hurts me to say that) in both games. But those two are going to score no matter what. They take a ton of shots and are very talented players. The key for Dayton will be winning at every other position on the court. Chris Johnson has played excellent basketball over the past few weeks. He must continue. Matt Kavanaugh and Kenny Frease traded good games in the two matchups this season; Kavanaugh will have to be the better player this time. And Devin Oliver, coming off the best game of his career, will have to follow it up and play well again. Oliver has not scored in his career against Xavier (that's completely true. Unbelievable, but true). Obviously, that's going to have to change.

The good news is UD fans shouldn't (repeat: shouldn't) have to worry about the Flyers not showing up for the game. We've seen before how Dayton has been poor in important games against inferior competition. In my experience, UD has not had trouble being prepared and coming out playing hard for games against Xavier. Even last year's teams, underachievers extraordinaire, played Xavier close at home and then of course beat X in the A-10 Tourney.

Man, it would be sweet to see that happen again. Extra sweet in 2012.