Continuing my NFL predictions, today with AFC thoughts. If you're interested in hearing about the NFC, just scroll down to the previous post.
AFC North
In the AFC North this year, things look similar to the way they have looked for what seems like forever: Steelers and Ravens battling for the title, with the Browns and Bengals looking up. Now, of course that's not the way it's always been. Actually, the Bengals won the division in 2009, which I believe less and less the more time I spend thinking about it.
The Bengals don't look like they have any shot of eeking out a division title this year, though. They look like they will have an excellent shot at winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, which would be a shame since they just drafted Andy Dalton at QB. The Browns seem like they might be a bit improved from last year, when they played a tough schedule. Colt McCoy looked sharp in the preseason, and Peyton Hillis is poised to have another big year.
Still, the division goes through Pittsburgh. The Steelers just refuse to be bad. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) projections for 2011, the Steelers are actually the most likely team to win the whole shebang this year. Baltimore will still be good, but not good enough.
AFC East
Despite the Jets' phenomenal performance in last year's playoff matchup, they don't have it in them to challenge the Patriots for a division title this year. Their defense will still be excellent, and Mark Sanchez might improve some more and come closer to being a franchise quarterback, but New England will be infuriatingly good once again. The Patriots lost essentially nothing and added Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Those are just the type of players that the Patriots take in and turn their careers around (see: Randy Moss).
Buffalo will be challenging Cincinnati for worst in the AFC, and the best I can see for Miami this year is a surprise 8-8 record. Better luck next year, boys.
AFC West
The Kansas City Chiefs almost inexplicably won this division last year. I don't think it's going to happen again. This year, for once, the Chargers will give football fans what they've been waiting for. A decent to good start so that they don't have to win their last seven games to try and come back and win the division. No, this year the Chargers will give us a full season of mostly good play, and go a solid 11-5 to win it all.
The other teams in the division, the Broncos and Raiders, aren't going to have much to say either. The Raiders are close, but not going to get the job done with Jason Campbell or Terrelle Pryor. Until they get somebody better under center, the Raiders will be stuck in .500 territory. The Broncos have a similar issue in that they are relying on some scrubs at QB as well. They don't have anyone as good as Run DMC on their team though.
AFC South
This is looking like the most wide-open division in all of football as we enter the season. With Peyton Manning not playing week 1, and his status uncertain for the near future, the Colts could fall a bit behind after the first few games. What if Peyton misses five games? They could easily be 1-4 with Kerry Collins at the helm. It would be tough to come back from that.
Of course, the other teams in the division don't look so hot, either. The Jaguars just released David Garrard and are deferring starting duties to Luke McCown for now, which is one of the most bizarre moves I've ever seen a team make five days before the season starts. The Titans might have a little bit of success with Matt Hasselbeck under center instead of Vince Young or Collins. But still, the team aside from Chris Johnson and maybe Kenny Britt seems pretty lackluster. I don't see the Titans factoring into much of anything.
That brings us to the Houston Texans, the team that for the past three years has been dying to get over the hump, but because of poor defense, and occasionally injuries, has seen quick starts dissolve into 8-8 finishes. This could be the Texans' year though. They have a chance to get some distance between themselves and the Colts at the beginning of the year, and with Arian Foster in his leading role another year, the Texans have more ability to close games out on the ground. Texans take advantage of a weak group and secure their first division title.
There you have it. If you wanted me to make a Super Bowl right now, I'd guess Chargers over Saints for all the marbles.
Rejoice in the fact that the NFL's back, and enjoy the season.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
NFL 2011-12. Can the Pack Repeat?
Ever since my last depressing post about the NFL Lockout, things have really taken a turn for the better. The NFL and NFLPA came to an agreement, America rejoiced, I took part in two fantasy football drafts, and we are on the precipice of the 2011-12 season beginning with the past two Super Bowl Champions to play each other in the league's opening game.
All of the above has done a marvelous job of distracting baseball fans of bad teams (yours truly) that their teams have further faded into meaninglessness, and owners of bad fantasy baseball teams (sigh...yours truly) that their teams have been eliminated from the playoffs or are so far behind in rotisserie scoring that they might as well not touch their rosters anymore.
But we've spent so much time being excited about the NFL season that we (or at least I) haven't spent that much time thinking about what is actually going to happen during it. Now, there are always those no-brainers that come with an NFL season, such as this year the Bengals will be struggling to win any games, and the Patriots will once again be very good, barring injuries. But there are so many pieces in between those two to be dissected. Will the Buccaneers get over the hump this year? Will the Chargers finally play 16 games up to their potential? What in the world is going to happen in the NFC West this year? So, without further ado, here's my shot at answering those questions and more. NFC preview today, with the AFC coming tomorrow, so this doesn't get too obscenely long.
NFC North
Let's start where things ended last year, with the NFC North and the Green Bay Packers. The defending Super Bowl Champs look to be the clear team-to-beat in the division this year, despite the fact that the Chicago Bears are the defending champs of the North. This year, it is unlikely that the Bears will have as few injuries as they did last year, and as unlikely that the Packers will have as many. With that being said, the Bears better half, its defense, is only getting older. The Packers made very few changes to a mostly young team.
The Minnesota Vikings look like the clear pick for last place in the North this year, with really only Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen to shout about on their team. The final team in the division, the Detroit Lions, is an interesting one, though. With young QB Matt Stafford healthy, the Lions have shown potency on offense, a Texans-like quality in which they are game to play in shootout games. Now, this does not mean they will be especially good, but it certainly means if they get 16 games out of Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best, they could absolutely beat out the Bears for second place in the division. As far as playoffs are concerned? The smallest of chances in my mind. If they were playing in the NFC West, the Lions would be my pick to win it. But they don't play there. Maybe next year, Detroit.
NFC East
The NFC East has been the most competitive division in the NFC the past decade, with the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants all fighting for playoff spots consistently. Even the Redskins have sneaked into the discussion once. I don't see it playing out that way this year though. To me, the Philadelphia Eagles are a clear favorite to win the division. The Redskins and Giants both look like they are in trouble. Washington has just called on Rex Grossman to lead them to the promised land; not going to happen. The Giants have had major offseason issues with injuries and holdouts on defense, and without a good defensive season, it's hard to imagine them getting carried to the playoffs by Eli Manning and Ahmad Bradshaw.
The Cowboys could have something to say about the division title, and I keep hearing about they will have a great year, but I'm not on the bandwagon. I believe we'll see the Cowboys in a wildcard role come playoff time, but I don't see them stacking up to the Eagles. The Eagles are younger, more talented and faster on offense, and their worst starting cornerback will be Asante Samuel. If nothing else, that mean's they'll be picking Tony Romo off in the head-to-head matchups with great frequency.
NFC South
The NFC East has been more consistently competitive than the other divisions, but the toughest division last year was the South. Despite having the NFL worst Carolina Panthers clock in at 2-14 last year, the South boasted the NFC's best team (by record) in the Atlanta Falcons, the 11-5 New Orleans Saints, and the 10-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who also would have made the playoffs if the Bears had been able to beat the Packers in Week 17 last year. The Panthers will once again be a far cry from the other three teams in the division, even if Cam Newton turns out to be a very good player in year one.
In my mind this is the Saints' division to lose in 2011. The Falcons turned in a fantastic home-season last year, and did very well in close games. But the Saints did better than them in the offseason. The Saints drafted Mark Ingram and got rid of Reggie Bush. Now they'll have a real running back instead of one they feel they need to design goofy plays for in order to justify having him on the roster. The Falcons' big move was to draft Julio Jones, who will likely be a good player some day, but not in his first season. Their offense will look very similar, except a year older. Which for players like Tony Gonzalez could be very damaging.
As for the Bucs, they will be good again, but not good enough. There just aren't enough weapons on the team yet, and Josh Freeman himself isn't a big enough weapon. Give them another year. They are still extremely young, and will have more to say about what happens in this division from 2012-2016.
NFC West
And now the division that is hard to even talk about. Honestly, these four teams were one Marshawn Lynch run away from turning in the most irredeemably bad performance by a division ever. The big question for the West this year is whether its playoff representative will be 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7. I believe they will have a team that enters the playoffs at 9-7, because one team will emerge as better than the others and beat up on them in divisional games. The two teams that have a chance to do that are the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals. It's hard for me to imagine the 49ers and Seahawks winning more than five or six games this season.
I believe the Cardinals are more ready to emerge from the dregs of the West than the Rams. With Kevin Kolb at the helm, Larry Fitzgerald might have a QB that is just barely good enough to get him the ball consistently so that he can again be a factor in the NFL. With Beanie Wells coming off a solid season, the Arizona offense figures to be pretty good. The Rams have the brightest QB of the bunch with Sam Bradford, but he still has a bad offensive line, not much at receiver, and a pretty poor defense around him. The Rams had a shot to seal the conference last year playing against a mediocre Seahawks team, and couldn't do it. This year, they will similarly be playing decent football, but not have the capability to claim the division for themselves.
All of the above has done a marvelous job of distracting baseball fans of bad teams (yours truly) that their teams have further faded into meaninglessness, and owners of bad fantasy baseball teams (sigh...yours truly) that their teams have been eliminated from the playoffs or are so far behind in rotisserie scoring that they might as well not touch their rosters anymore.
But we've spent so much time being excited about the NFL season that we (or at least I) haven't spent that much time thinking about what is actually going to happen during it. Now, there are always those no-brainers that come with an NFL season, such as this year the Bengals will be struggling to win any games, and the Patriots will once again be very good, barring injuries. But there are so many pieces in between those two to be dissected. Will the Buccaneers get over the hump this year? Will the Chargers finally play 16 games up to their potential? What in the world is going to happen in the NFC West this year? So, without further ado, here's my shot at answering those questions and more. NFC preview today, with the AFC coming tomorrow, so this doesn't get too obscenely long.
NFC North
Let's start where things ended last year, with the NFC North and the Green Bay Packers. The defending Super Bowl Champs look to be the clear team-to-beat in the division this year, despite the fact that the Chicago Bears are the defending champs of the North. This year, it is unlikely that the Bears will have as few injuries as they did last year, and as unlikely that the Packers will have as many. With that being said, the Bears better half, its defense, is only getting older. The Packers made very few changes to a mostly young team.
The Minnesota Vikings look like the clear pick for last place in the North this year, with really only Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen to shout about on their team. The final team in the division, the Detroit Lions, is an interesting one, though. With young QB Matt Stafford healthy, the Lions have shown potency on offense, a Texans-like quality in which they are game to play in shootout games. Now, this does not mean they will be especially good, but it certainly means if they get 16 games out of Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best, they could absolutely beat out the Bears for second place in the division. As far as playoffs are concerned? The smallest of chances in my mind. If they were playing in the NFC West, the Lions would be my pick to win it. But they don't play there. Maybe next year, Detroit.
NFC East
The NFC East has been the most competitive division in the NFC the past decade, with the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants all fighting for playoff spots consistently. Even the Redskins have sneaked into the discussion once. I don't see it playing out that way this year though. To me, the Philadelphia Eagles are a clear favorite to win the division. The Redskins and Giants both look like they are in trouble. Washington has just called on Rex Grossman to lead them to the promised land; not going to happen. The Giants have had major offseason issues with injuries and holdouts on defense, and without a good defensive season, it's hard to imagine them getting carried to the playoffs by Eli Manning and Ahmad Bradshaw.
The Cowboys could have something to say about the division title, and I keep hearing about they will have a great year, but I'm not on the bandwagon. I believe we'll see the Cowboys in a wildcard role come playoff time, but I don't see them stacking up to the Eagles. The Eagles are younger, more talented and faster on offense, and their worst starting cornerback will be Asante Samuel. If nothing else, that mean's they'll be picking Tony Romo off in the head-to-head matchups with great frequency.
NFC South
The NFC East has been more consistently competitive than the other divisions, but the toughest division last year was the South. Despite having the NFL worst Carolina Panthers clock in at 2-14 last year, the South boasted the NFC's best team (by record) in the Atlanta Falcons, the 11-5 New Orleans Saints, and the 10-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who also would have made the playoffs if the Bears had been able to beat the Packers in Week 17 last year. The Panthers will once again be a far cry from the other three teams in the division, even if Cam Newton turns out to be a very good player in year one.
In my mind this is the Saints' division to lose in 2011. The Falcons turned in a fantastic home-season last year, and did very well in close games. But the Saints did better than them in the offseason. The Saints drafted Mark Ingram and got rid of Reggie Bush. Now they'll have a real running back instead of one they feel they need to design goofy plays for in order to justify having him on the roster. The Falcons' big move was to draft Julio Jones, who will likely be a good player some day, but not in his first season. Their offense will look very similar, except a year older. Which for players like Tony Gonzalez could be very damaging.
As for the Bucs, they will be good again, but not good enough. There just aren't enough weapons on the team yet, and Josh Freeman himself isn't a big enough weapon. Give them another year. They are still extremely young, and will have more to say about what happens in this division from 2012-2016.
NFC West
And now the division that is hard to even talk about. Honestly, these four teams were one Marshawn Lynch run away from turning in the most irredeemably bad performance by a division ever. The big question for the West this year is whether its playoff representative will be 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7. I believe they will have a team that enters the playoffs at 9-7, because one team will emerge as better than the others and beat up on them in divisional games. The two teams that have a chance to do that are the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals. It's hard for me to imagine the 49ers and Seahawks winning more than five or six games this season.
I believe the Cardinals are more ready to emerge from the dregs of the West than the Rams. With Kevin Kolb at the helm, Larry Fitzgerald might have a QB that is just barely good enough to get him the ball consistently so that he can again be a factor in the NFL. With Beanie Wells coming off a solid season, the Arizona offense figures to be pretty good. The Rams have the brightest QB of the bunch with Sam Bradford, but he still has a bad offensive line, not much at receiver, and a pretty poor defense around him. The Rams had a shot to seal the conference last year playing against a mediocre Seahawks team, and couldn't do it. This year, they will similarly be playing decent football, but not have the capability to claim the division for themselves.
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