Make or Break?

Last week I wrote about the Dayton-Duquesne game, and how it didn't matter that much because UD's NCAA Tournament hopes rested solely on winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Still, I wanted to see the Flyers play hard, play well and win. Well, they did that. And as far as I was concerned, nothing had changed for UD except for the number in its win column this season. Then my brother pointed me to this tweet from Joe Lunardi, saying that UD was closer than maybe we expected to being a tournament team. Flabbergasted, I followed UD's performance while at work that night as it thrashed Massachusetts, 76-43 at home. When I got home, I watched ESPN and got on ESPN.com for the latest Bracketology updates, and couldn't believe my eyes when I saw that Dayton was Lunardi's seventh team out of the tournament--they were his 45th-best candidate to receive an at-large bid. I sort of assumed that Joe had lost his mind, but looking at other brackets, the same was true. UD was just outside the field (in some cases, in it).

So is Dayton's game at Richmond tonight a make or break for the Flyers? No and yes. Winning at Richmond (15-15, 6-9 A-10) will not vault the Flyers into the projected NCAA Tournament field, or even help them bypass a single team in front of them (unless one of those teams loses). But losing to Richmond would certainly spell doom for Dayton's at-large chances (I am still skeptical that these even exist).

That is why tonight's game is so nerve-racking. If there is any type of game that UD has perfected losing, it is this one. An important game against a weak opponent (almost always a conference opponent) that will drastically effect Dayton's place in the A-10 standings one way or another. I don't really want to look to the past for proof, but here goes: at 3-3 in the A-10 last year, Dayton traveled to Duquesne and lost 84-62. After righting the ship the Flyers were 5-4 in A-10 play; they then lost by 14 at Rhode Island. At 7-8 in the conference that year, Dayton played its final game at George Washington and lost 60-58. In the 2009-10 season, UD was 3-1 in the A-10, then lost consecutive games at Saint Joe's and with Rhode Island visiting. At 6-3 in the conference, Dayton lost 68-65 at Saint Louis, then lost on senior night again to the Billikens while sporting an 8-7 record. During the 2007-08 season, Dayton suffered some injuries after starting 2-0 in the conference. In then lost at home to UMass, 82-71. After recovering somewhat and getting to 4-4, Dayton lost consecutive games at George Washington and home to Duquesne. Are you getting the picture? (Too bad if you aren't, because I'm slamming my head against the desk as I'm writing this. For my own safety, we aren't reliving any more devastation). All three of those teams were on and off the bubble throughout the second half of the season. I believe each of them had the talent to make the big dance, but none of them did.

This year's team is not the same in terms of style of play, but in terms of wins and losses the similarities are striking. At 2-0 in the A-10, Dayton lost at St. Bonaventure. At 4-1, the Flyers forgot how to play defense and lost three straight to weaker teams (St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne) and then one more at a good St. Louis team. Like in past years, it is not unreasonable to say that a win instead of a loss in any of Dayton's A-10 defeats would barely change the team's record, but it would make the team's resume look significantly better. This year's team would be 19-9, and in a third-place tie at 9-5 in the conference. It's just one game, but doesn't 19-9, 9-5 look worlds better than 18-10, 8-6. It does to me. Not to mention that it would take a bad loss of of UD's resume.

Perhaps the most annoying thing about this season as it has turned out, though, is a game we all expected UD to lose. When UD lost 86-83 in overtime at Xavier Feb. 18th, I think it's fair to say most UD fans were disappointed that the team had come so close and lost, but not surprised that Dayton had lost. But now, Xavier has had an extremely rocky second half of the season, and according to Lunardi, is outside the field of 68 just like UD. Essentially this means that a win at Xavier could have (would likely have?) put Dayton in charge of its own tournament destiny, and all but eliminated Xavier's chances. How sweet would that have been? About 150,000 times sweeter than when Brian Roberts dropped 30 points on Pittsburgh.

Sorry, I got carried away there. There's no point in getting caught up in the past. Because tonight, Dayton plays a game that is just as important as that one at Xavier was. Kris Mooney and Richmond have had Dayton's number the past couple years. Last year, it was Richmond that denied Dayton a surprise bid to the tournament by beating them in the A-10 Tourney Championship. But this has been a rebuilding year for the Spiders. It's time for the Flyers to jump on them and take advantage. The committee just might be watching.

Mid-Major Report: 2/27

For the second week in a row, the No. 1 team in the Mid-Major report has gone a disappointing 0-2, and the rankings have shaken again. I wrote about a month ago in a report about how incredible it was that we had so many mid-major teams delivering the season-long performances that they were: Murray State undefeated, Creighton, San Diego State, Harvard and Saint Mary's with two losses, Wichita State and UNLV with just three apiece. Now as we enter the final week of regular season play (some teams have already finished their regular seasons), many of those teams have come back to a more normal level. With New Mexico's losses, the best three teams from the Mountain West have six losses each. Saint Mary's and Creighton have five. Harvard has four. These teams are all still excellent, but those records are much more typical of the best mid-major teams in a given season. Should we be concerned about the fact that most of these teams have accrued half or more of their losses in the latter part of the season? In some cases, absolutely (Creighton, San Diego State). In others, I wouldn't fret too much.

As always, check out the initial mid-major report for information on how I make my ranking decisions.

Dropped Out: Saint Louis (0-1 last week lost at Rhode Island), Temple (1-1 last week, lost by 10 to St. Joe's), Harvard (1-1 last week, lost at home to Penn)
Outside looking in: San Diego State, Long Beach State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee, Weber State

10. Iona (23-6, 53rd in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
The Gaels are back! Having locked up the MAAC regular season championship (at 14-3, they have a two game lead with one game to play) on the strength of a four-game win-streak, Iona has done just about as well as it could to secure an at-large bid in the tournament. Unfortunately, I don't the selection committee will be inviting the Gaels unless they win the MAAC Tournament. Which is why everyone needs to root for Iona in the next week and a half. There are certain teams you can watch and know that they are the real deal, that they would play well against just about anybody in the country; Iona is one of those teams. It is the highest scoring team in the nation (82.9 points per game), shoots just under 50 percent for the season, and has the nations leading assists man in Scott Machado (10 assists per game). Iona plays an entertaining, up-tempo style and can score with anyone in the country. It is a team good enough to get an at-large bid, but I suspect its strength of schedule and lack of good wins will doom Iona if it does not win its conference tournament.

9. Virginia Commonwealth (25-6, 47 Pomeroy)
My dad has been blindly biased toward the Colonial Athletic Association for a couple years now. Certainly, it has been an exemplary mid-major conference, with two different teams making the final four and receiving multiple bids to the tournament several times in the past ten years. This year, my dad's love for the CAA is burning as bright as ever, but the rest of the country (myself included) is not sold on them. Particularly in terms of RPI (flawed, but it is a method of measure), the CAA looks pretty bad. But Virginia Commonwealth has now won 14 of its last 15 games (the one loss was on a 30 foot buzzer-beater to George Mason), and seems to be playing pretty well. In past years, a 25-6 record would have VCU as a lock in the tournament, no questions asked. But this year, Shaka Smart's team decided to play an extremely weak schedule, and lose the only games it did play against decent competition (Seton Hall, Alabama, Drexel). Still, looking at the bubble tells me the Rams should have done enough so far to qualify for an at-large bid. South Florida has currently played its way into a bid, according to Joe Lunardi; VCU beat USF by 25 early in the season. VCU also happens to be much hotter right now that USF has been at any point this year. But the weak schedule will kill them. In my mind, unless VCU is able to advance as far as the conference championship game (not making it there would mean another loss to a weaker CAA team), it will be overlooked come Selection Sunday.

8. Brigham Young (24-7, 38 Pomeroy)
The Cougars lost (unsurprisingly) at Gonzaga last week, but came back and closed out their season with a 76-66 win against Portland. While the loss to Gonzaga means BYU finished third instead of second in the WCC, the win afterward still rounded out a fine season post-Jimmer Fredette for BYU. The Cougars can score with the best of the country (79 points per game), and are a dangerous three-point shooting team, which is always something to watch out for come tournament time. They play one of the most up-tempo styles in the country and actually have a pretty good defense to go along with it (22nd in adjusted defense at kenpom). If the Cougars can pick up a win over Gonzaga or St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament, it would do wonders for the team's seeding when the NCAA Tournament is picked.

7. New Mexico (22-6, 15 Pomeroy)
Last week, after beating San Diego State and UNLV, I wrote that New Mexico finally appeared to be living up to its lofty ranking at kenpom.com. After losing to Colorado State and TCU this week, however, I don't think there can be much doubt that the Lobos are a team that has just played to Pomeroy's system well, and not a top 15 (or earlier, top 10) team in the country. New Mexico is still a good team, and could get back on track with some wins in the Mountain West Tournament, but you have to be concerned about a group that can take a two-game lead in the conference with just four games to play, then give that lead up in its next two games. I'm concerned about a team that can't close, whether its during an individual game or in a season-long competition. New Mexico had its shot to close UNLV and SDSU out, but couldn't get the job done against mediocre competition.

6. Saint Mary's (25-5, 40 Pomeroy)
The other Gaels return to the list at number six by closing out their season with wins at Portland and at San Francisco. Knocking St. Mary's off the list last week was perhaps a bit strong, but they had the committee worried with losses in three of four games. Picking up wins on the road and securing the West Coast Conference title offered some assurance that St. Mary's has mostly righted the ship. Winning the WCC Tournament or at least losing to Gonzaga in the finals would offer even more assurance that St. Mary's is back. This teams remains one of my favorite mid-majors as far as watching them play. The Gaels play a real team game, with solid players at every position. They have an excellent general in Matthew Dellavedova, and with all their experience, I believe the Gaels will correct their mistakes and be strong as ever heading into the NCAAs.

5. Creighton (25-5, 39 Pomeroy)
After a 102-74 thrashing of Illinois State at home, Creighton has not exactly been inspiring. Their seven games since that win to close out the season: Lost 65-62 at Northern Iowa, lost 65-57 at Evansville, lost 89-68 home to Wichita State, won 88-69 at Southern Illinois, won 81-79 home to Long Beach State, won 93-92 (OT) home to Evansville, won 61-60 at Indiana State. Sure, Creighton recovered from its three straight losses and got four straight wins, but the final three were all escapes. Needing overtime to beat Evansville at home does not inspire confidence. The Blue Jays will (and should) be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament (maybe a 6 seed?) but unless they show me something in the MVC Tournament, I will be avoiding them like the plague come tournament time. They are playing mediocre basketball at the wrong time.

4. UNLV (24-6, 31 Pomeroy)
After its disappointing two-loss week while at No. 1 in the MMR, UNLV did what New Mexico could not this week: beat the weaker teams in the conference. The Rebels beat Boise State and Air Force at home, and pulled level in the Mountain West standings. Who knows what is going to happen in that conference now? No team has been willing or able to step up and take the title for itself. And none of the top three play each other the rest of the regular season. So it will be all about who can beat the lesser teams. UNLV may have the toughest road of the three to winning out, with games against Colorado State (beaten New Mexico and SDSU this season) and Wyoming (beat UNLV earlier). It's time to really see what these MWC teams are made of.

3. Drexel (25-5, 45 Pomeroy)
When discussing VCU, we discussed the CAA. If Drexel does not win the CAA tournament and does not get an at-large bid, we will have our biggest snub of the year without question. The fact that scenario is even a possibility is insane to me. Even if we are accepting that the CAA is not as good as it has been in years past, it is at least still decent competition. And Drexel finished its season with 17 straight wins, most if it against that decent competition. What else is there a team can do to earn itself a bid than win incessantly. The Dragons are very good this year. Their two losses in the conference came early in the season when they were not at full strength. It's been almost two months since they suffered a loss. Give Drexel its due, please.

2. Murray State (28-1, 48 Pomeroy)
I was expecting it to take much longer for the Racers to climb this high in the MMR so quickly. But once again, they've been winning while everybody else (almost) has been losing. The Racers closed their season with wins at Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech, and now we need to root for them to win the OVC Tournament. Another team from that conference winning would be a disaster for the bubble, and that team would just be heading to the tourney to get thrashed. Just a couple more wins, Murray State. They've been doing it all year, so a couple more shouldn't be too much to ask.

1. Wichita State (26-4, 8 Pomeroy)
Are the Shockers really a top 10 team in the country? After seeing them and some of the teams surrounding them in the kenpom rankings (North Carolina, Wisconsin, Missouri, Duke, Georgetown), I'm starting to believe. The Shockers finishe 26-4 and won the Missouri Valley Conference on the strength of wins at Illinois State and home against Drake last week. The way they have finished this season, an MVC Tournament Championship would put them in the 3-seed tier in my mind. After losing at home to Creighton on New Year's Eve, Wichita has won 16 of 17, and looked good doing it. They start four seniors and a junior, and have six different players who can be relied on to score in double figures in a given game. Watch out, March. The Shockers look primed to make some noise.

The RPI vs. all

As we move through the final couple weeks of college basketball season, the selection committee and teams on the bubble will begin to take over what is important in basketball. And this year, as those potential selections have started to draw our attention, I've noticed that the RPI seems to have taken more shots than usual. Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com has written about his disdain for the RPI and Scott Van Pelt delivered a diatribe (that made about 30 good points) on the matter.

Then yesterday I read an excellent piece from John Gasaway on the history of the RPI from Basketball Prospectus (it's a long article, but if you've got the time, check it out). Gasaway attended the NCAA's mock selection committee and came away searching for more information. Some of the more interesting tidbits to be found in this article:

"Van Valkenburg and his staff looked at using margin of victory in their new rating system, but rejected the idea for two reasons: it could encourage coaches to run up the score, and final scores "oftentimes do not reflect the closeness of games." Instead Van Valkenburg and his colleagues formulated a rating system that adjusted a team's Division I winning percentage based on strength of schedule and game location. The name "Ratings Percentage Index" apparently came about because it did not include the taboo word "Ranking" and because it was thought "RPI" formed a serviceable acronym."
Among the largest complaints about the RPI is that it does not take margin of victory into account. Many of the newer metrics for measuring teams lists margin of victory as an essential component to whether or not a team is actually good (KenPom, LRMC, ESPN's new BPI, John Hollinger's NBA rankings, the list goes on). And there is some truth to that. A team that is 10-0 with all its wins by three or less points is probably not as good as one that is 8-2 with seven wins by double digits, and two losses by five or less. But what is more interesting from that quote is why the RPI creators chose not to use margin of victory. They believed it would encourage coaches to have their teams run up the score. And think about it: for the past decade or so, haven't we heard about teams doing what they can to satisfy the RPI? It started out by teams just trying to secure as high a winning percentage as possible, then when the RPI was adjusted, the fad became scheduling as many top-100 RPI teams as they can to improve their RPI ranking with wins. So if margin of victory was included in the initial RPI, wouldn't coaches have just left their starters in the game in early season games and tried to win by 50? Would that have helped to tell us anything about which of those teams was best? Interestingly, as Gasaway notes in the Prospectus piece, the exclusion of margin of victory in the RPI has "created the perfect conditions under which scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule, could and has become a surpassingly powerful evaluative tool. But those of us who use that tool should acknowledge the analytic free ride we've been given, courtesy of Van Valkenburg. The stats we're able to deploy in 2012 are great at evaluating teams -- but the only teams we've ever been able to evaluate have been ones striving to look good to Jim Van Valkenburg, and not to us."

Also of note from the article: "Today when Van Valkenburg's invention is faulted on the grounds that it doesn't perform as well as other rating systems that benefit from more recent advances, an oddly prevalent response is that the NCAA "isn't trying to predict anything." Gasaway goes on to say that it seems odd to him the NCAA wouldn't want to improve upon its own formulas between seasons, but I couldn't help but be struck by the above quote, because I agree with it wholeheartedly. I hate the RPI, and have since I've been old enough to grasp what it is. But when selecting teams for the NCAA Tournament, I don't think the NCAA should be "trying to predict anything". It should be selecting for at-large bids the 38 teams that have earned it more than others. Of course, who has "earned" it most is weak language because it could be interpreted in many ways, but I think first and foremost to "earning" a berth in the tournament should be winning. And so it occurred to me that while the Jeff Sagarins and Ken Pomeroys of the world may have better systems for showing us which teams are the best in the country (I believe they do), their systems may not be any better than the RPI for selecting tournament teams, because they are meant to be predictive. I don't care how well the numbers think a team like Minnesota will perform if given a shot, I care whether the team's results from the season warrant being given a shot. So I decided to do a comparison between the ratings systems.

There are 38 at-large bids given out in the NCAA Tournament. So I looked at the top 38 teams in the RPI (as according to realtimerpi.com), Sagarin and Kenpom ratings. Of course, several of those teams will win their conference tournaments and receive automatic bids. To account for those teams, I removed any team that was in first place in its conference as of games played Feb. 22, and used the top 38 excluding those teams. Here were the final 15 teams to make the bracket from each rating system:

From looking that list over, one thing becomes abundantly clear quickly: the RPI is grossly overrating the Conference-USA. In the RPI, the C-USA would be getting four teams into the tournament (Southern Miss is rated 11th! and Memphis is 27th), including a 17-10 Marshall squad whose best win this season is a 65-64 triumph at home over UCF. Um, no. Also, the RPI has St. Joseph's making the tournament, an 18-11 team out of the A-10 with essentially the same resume' as Dayton, but less quality wins. Clearly, the RPI is not a very good system for placing these teams in the tournament.

But a quick glance at the Kenpom final 15 doesn't exactly set one's mind at ease. Two names jump off the page from the Pomeroy final 15: La Salle and South Dakota St. Pomeroy has been championing the Explorers out of the A-10 as one of the nation's most underrated teams, but they are just 18-10 (7-6 in the A-10) with losses to Robert Morris, Delaware, Dayton, Richmond and St. Joe's. Doesn't look like a tournament team to me. And South Dakota State has gone 22-7 on the season, but they play in the Summit League. They have lost to 12-14 North Dakota by 19 points, 15-14 Oakland, and (wait for it) a 9-17 South Dakota team. I'm sure the battle for South Dakota is as intense as any rivalry in the country, but South Dakota is 4-12 in the Summit this year. Maybe if SDSU's record were more like 26-3, you could forgive them a loss like that. But 22-7? I don't think so.

In Sagarin's final 15, the largest disturbance for me is in the five consecutive Big East teams near the top. In addition to those, Sagarin has four rated above them receiving bids. His nine Big East teams do not include South Florida, a team that sits third in the conference standings and in the eyes of the committee is probably ahead of at least a couple of those teams in the final 15. So according to those rankings, NINE OR TEN BIG EAST TEAMS SHOULD MAKE THE TOURNAMENT THIS YEAR. THE BIG EAST IS NOT VERY GOOD THIS YEAR! Come on. Looking at the Big East standings doesn't do anything to assuage the discomfort. The team currently sitting 10th is West Virginia (17-11, 7-8 Big East). Perfect resume' for sneaking into a 10 or 11 seed. Ugh. The other issue I see in Sagarin's is one that pops up in Kenpom as well. San Diego State is rated by both of them as barely making the tournament. In Kenpom, the Aztecs are actually the last team to make the field. Sure, SDSU has suffered some bad losses of late and fallen off a bit, but that is still insane! They are so far superior to the teams surrounding them in each of those ratings (Northwestern, South Dakota State, Minnesota, Southern Miss), that this almost looks like a joke.

In addition to all this, if Murray State were to lose its conference tournament, it would not receive an at-large bid according to Kenpom's numbers (currently rated 56, San Diego St. is 57), and would be right on the borderline for Sagarin (currently 46, Illinois is 55). That is ridiculous. I don't think there is much doubt the Racers have proven they belong comfortably in the tournament, not on the bubble (let alone off it). Of course, the RPI would have three Pac-12 teams making the field (absurd), and would be setting Colorado State as a six or seven seed. The Rams (17-9, 6-5) have had a couple great wins in the Mountain West, but should not be considered a tournament team yet.

Interesting to me is that all three systems have Miami of Florida making the field relatively comfortably (a nine or 10 seed). The U certainly qualifies as a bubble team at the moment, but at 16-10 overall and 7-6 in the ACC with exactly zero good wins on its resume' (best so far are wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech), the Hurricanes should not be considered an easy choice right now (as they seem to be by all three ratings systems). Maybe Miami actually is better than it seems, though, if three different methods of looking at them come out relatively positive.

I realize that neither Jim Van Valkenberg, Ken Pomeroy nor Jeff Sagarin would say the best way to make tournament selections would be to simply run down their list and pick them in order. Pomeroy has said as much and Van Valkenberg's son says the same in the Prospectus piece. I know am pretty sure all those men would believe that Murray State and San Diego State are easy tournament calls.

But that wasn't the point of this post. Yes, the RPI is horrible. But when it comes to its supposed principal use, selecting tournament teams, all of our advanced metrics from today aren't much better at doing the job.

Dayton at Duquesne: does it really matter?

Per my post from last week about Dayton's NCAA Tournament chances, you would have to say with an overtime loss at Xavier, UD lost any shot for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. So in theory, everything the team does from now until the beginning of the Atlantic 10 Tournament doesn't matter. Sure, UD could help itself it terms of seeding in the A-10 Tourney, but they are going to be in the bottom eight anyway, having to play four games to win the whole thing. In my mind, it doesn't make much difference if you're the five seed or the 10 seed.

But that doesn't mean tonight's game at Duquesne doesn't matter. To a real basketball team, it's important because it signifies a shot at revenge for an embarrassing loss at home earlier in the season. It signifies a chance to get back on track and get rolling going into the tournament. Perhaps most importantly, it signifies a chance for Dayton's guards to show they are better than the annoyingly incredible (or is that incredibly annoying?) TJ McConnell.

As a fan of the team, I know the season is close to being over. I will continue to hold out hope they'll make a run in the tournament and bring UD fans a miracle, but in my head I know that's about as likely to happen as me going for a run this week (note: there's almost no way it's happening; I'm pitiful).

Even knowing that this season is all but over for UD, I still can't think of anything that would be more disappointing than to see UD mail it in over its final four games. When Dayton lost by 29 to Buffalo early in the season, it was absolutely heartbreaking to watch the body language and lack of effort put on display by the players. To see a team that has played hard above everything else, even if it meant making tons of mistakes in the process, since I've followed them just give up, I can't think of any other way to describe my feelings.

So even if they aren't playing for anything over the next two weeks, I still won't be able to stomach the Flyers not giving it their all.

Mid-Major Report: 2/21

After a fantastic Bracketbusters weekend, here we are again with the Mid-Major Report. Similar to last week, there have been some serious shake-ups regarding the rankings. With so many good teams playing each other, that was bound to happen. But the week also produced some extremely surprising results outside of Bracketbusters games, specifically in the Mountain West Conference. That is why we have a new number one team. Keep reading to see who they are. As always, refer to the first report of the year for information about how these rankings are achieved.

Dropped Out: San Diego State (0-2 last week, lost to New Mexico and Air Force), Saint Mary's (0-2 last week, lost to Loyola Marymount and at Murray State, have now lost three of four)
A very surprising duo to see fall from the rankings, considering two weeks ago I would have said neither one had a shot at dropping out. But then again, I didn't foresee results like these.
Outside Looking In: Iona, Long Beach State(had their shot at Creighton), George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Weber State

10. Saint Louis (22-5, 11th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings
The Billikens return to the Mid-Major Report after a six-week hiatus. They looked among the best mid-majors in the country early in the year, but then lost a couple games and couldn't string enough wins together to get back on top. Now, Saint Louis has won six in a row and nine of ten, including a win at Xavier during the stretch, to provide a little separation for itself from the teams behind it in the Atlantic 10 standings. The Billikens have been highly rated by kenpom.com's system the entire season (39th-ranked adjusted offense, 10th adjusted-defense, top-100 strength of schedule), and appear to be living up to their predictive billing now. With just three games left, the Billikens go on the road twice and play Xavier at home--not an easy road to the finish. But they look to be in good shape for a middling seed at the NCAA Tournament.

9. UNLV (22-6, 29 Pomeroy)
The Rebels were the number 1 team last week, mainly because I couldn't justify placing New Mexico ahead of them. Well, they quickly let me know I should have done just that by losing in overtime to TCU at home. And then they made sure to let the country know they weren't up to the task of being No. 1 by delivering their lowest offensive output on the season by 19 points, and getting trounced at New Mexico in the process. The high ranking from last week and win over San Diego State are all that barely kept the Rebels in the top 10. They are still a very good team, and Mike Moser is one of the very best players on any mid-major team in the country. The Rebels will recover, but last week was ugly.

8. Drexel (23-5, 46 Pomeroy)
The Drexel Dragons are making their debut in the Mid-Major top 10 on the strength of a 15-game winning streak (and they've won 21 of their last 22). After dealing with injuries at the beginning of the year, the Dragons are at full strength and atop the Colonial Athletic Association (tied with George Mason). The Colonial looks like a better conference than it has been given credit for this season, as it fared pretty well in Bracketbusters games (the top four teams in the conference all won, including Drexel by 20 at Cleveland State and Old Dominion at Missouri State). So at 14-2, the Dragons probably deserve more credit than they've been given so far. Despite middle of the road advanced metrics (66th adjusted-offense, 51st adjusted-defense), the Dragons looked very impressive Saturday and are hot as can be.

7. Creighton (23-5, 37 Pomeroy)
Creighton went 2-0 last week, but is barely in the top 10 after stealing its Bracketbusters game from Long Beach State. You can't help but feel like the Blue Jays would be gone if they had been unfortunate enough to have a road game instead of a home one. But they played at home, and with wins at Southern Illinois and over LBSU, they may have righted the ship. Sure, the Jays gave away the the Missouri Valley regular season, but they still have the best player in the conference in Doug McDermott, and with a run in the MVC Tournament, could play themselves back into good seeding in the NCAAs.

6. Harvard (23-3, 30 Pomeroy)
After the disappointing loss at Princeton last week, Harvard got back to what it does best (18th-ranked adjusted-defense), and gave up 42 and 51 points with wins over Brown and Yale last week. The win over Yale in particular was important because a loss would have meant the Crimson had fallen back to the pack in the Horizon League standings. But with the win it maintained a game advantage over Penn and extended its lead on Yale to two games. Harvard still has key games against Princeton and Penn (both at home) to come, so its fate is far from determined yet.

5. Temple (21-5, 31 Pomeroy)
It was a relatively pedestrian week for Temple, which enjoyed wins over A-10 middle-of-the-pack-ers St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. Still, two wins at this stage of the season always look good. With four games to play, Temple has one tough week (this week), and one that looks much simpler in closing out the season. The Owls play at LaSalle (a surprising 18-9, 7-5 in the A-10 this year) and then a rivalry game at St. Joseph's, which has also played above its expectations in the conference this year, posting an 8-5 mark so far. Both those games should be wins for Temple, but don't underestimate the upset potential of a road game against the other A-10 school from Philadelphia.

4. Brigham Young (23-6, 32 Pomeroy)
Yes, BYU has climbed to fourth in the rankings. Despite losing twice to Saint Mary's this year, the Cougars are in the top five, while the Gaels are outside the top 10. But guess what? BYU's record in the last two weeks is 4-0, and St. Mary's is 1-3. Sure, BYU's mark has come against lesser competition (at San Francisco (not bad) and at Santa Clara (terrible) last week), but these rankings are about who's playing well right now. The Gaels aren't. The Cougars seem to be. We'll find out just how well they're playing this week, when BYU visits Gonzaga Thursday. It will not be a game they are expected to win, but if BYU can pull off the upset, like New Mexico, we'll have to start taking them very seriously.

3. Murray State (26-1, 57 Pomeroy)
Everyone can go ahead and calm back down about whether the Racers are for real or not. Since its loss to Tennessee State, Murray State has gone 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 14 points. And if you didn't follow college basketball this weekend, Murray's most recent victory was a 14-point clubbing of Saint Mary's, in which the Racers took the lead and never looked back. For being the game most Bracketbusters aficionados were looking forward to, it was pretty anticlimactic. The Racers were really in control of a team that until about a week and a half ago I thought was the best mid-major in the country. So much for that. Even though kenpom.com will still never be able to fully give the Racers the love they deserve due to their run of close games and poor strength of schedule, they still jumped 11 spots in his rankings from last week. That's pretty significant this late in the season. And now, a running of the table has Murray back in the conversation for a top-5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

2. Wichita State (24-4, 10 Pomeroy)
In you were to ask me who was the most impressive team from Bracketbusters weekend, I would not hesitate in saying it was the Shockers. They appear to be living up to the lofty expectations kenpom.com has had for them for most of the season. On Saturday Wichita visited Davidson and matched up with a very impressive Wildcats squad (one that I suspect will be on these rankings most of next year; they bring all five starters back). After an extremely entertaining first half, the Shockers just imposed their will on Davidson en route to a 91-74 win. Wichita really looked excellent. It shot the ball extremely well, showed off its impressive depth and athleticism, and delivered a dominant offensive second half. These players--Joe Ragland, Toure' Murry, Ben Smith, David Kyles and Carl Hall, are as athletic a group as anywhere in America that I've seen this season. O, and not mentioned in that group is the Shockers' leading scorer and rebounder, 7-footer Garrett Stutz.

1. New Mexico (22-4, 9 Pomeroy)
In similar fashion to Wichita, New Mexico lived up to its advanced-metric hype this past week. At No. 2 last week, I said the Lobos would have to prove to me that they've changed since the beginning of the conference season. Well, prove themsevles they did. With a 10-point win at San Diego State and a 20-point win (and dominant defensive performance) at home against UNLV, the Lobos delivered the most impressive two-win week of any team in the Mid-Major Report this year. With losses by both SDSU and UNLV to other opponents during the week, New Mexico also seized control of the Mountain West regular season race, opening up a 2-game lead. They have the seventh-ranked adjusted-defense at kenpom.com and a star in Drew Gordon who is playing his best ball at the right time (17 points, 17 rebounds at SDSU, 27 points, 20 rebounds vs. UNLV). After a fantastic weekend of college basketball, New Mexico and The Pit sit at No. 1.

Bracketbusters Primer

What's On and Why to Watch
This Saturday is the most important weekend of the college basketball regular season. Rivalry week is cool and sometimes we get weekends with several good games, but nothing comes close in importance to Bracketbusters. More than any other single weekend during the season, it shapes the field of the NCAA Tournament. Some of the teams playing this weekend are almost certainly in the field (St. Mary's-Murray State) and will be playing more for seeding purposes. Others, however, will be playing to put themselves in strong position for an at-large bid if they don't happen to win their conference tournaments (Long Beach State, Davidson, Akron-Oral Roberts, Nevada-Iona). And all these key games will be on TV! If you haven't been doing your homework on college basketball and watching some its lesser-known teams, now is your best shot. Pay attention, because at least two of these teams will get good matchups come tournament time and make it through the first weekend. If you watched them now, you just might pick it correctly then.

11 a.m. Drexel at Cleveland State
In the first game of the day, we have a key game for Drexel. Cleveland State looked like an at-large contender for much of the season, but it has lost too many games in the Horizon League to make a case anymore. Winning the Horizon Tournament is the Vikings' only shot. Drexel, on the other hand, has won 14 straight and sits tied atop the Colonial at 14-2. The Dragons looked weak earlier in the year due to some top players sitting out. They would appear to have hit their stride, and a quality road win Saturday would greatly help their chances at an at-large bid. A loss, however, would be crippling. With Cleveland State not quite as strong resume-wise as was expected a couple weeks ago, this has become a virtual must-win game for Drexel.

Noon Wichita State at Davidson
At 20-6 and 14-2 in the Southern Conference, Davidson is still on the outside looking in. 20-6 is a great record, just not coming from that conference with losses to the likes of College of Charleston and Samford. With a win over Wichita State, however, the Wildcats would make a very serious case for themselves to be deserving of an at-large bid. Wichita, on the other hand, looks like a lock for the tournament and finds itself in much the same position Creighton was in a couple weeks ago: keep winning and earn yourself an excellent seed, maybe as high as a four. Lose, and then we're talking about the 7-8-9-10 range, giving the Shockers a much more difficult second-round matchup than they would like.

2 p.m. Akron at Oral Roberts
4 p.m. Nevada at Iona
Both these games are simple: win and you're barely on the bubble; lose and your only shot is the automatic bid. All four teams have had great seasons, but have had untimely losses to weak conference opponents. Those types of losses can only be forgiven to a certain extent. My gut tells me only Iona has an outside shot of actually receiving an at-large bid from the selection committee. So definitely root for the Gaels to win if you're a mid-major fan.

6 p.m. Saint Mary's at Murray State
Everyone was extremely concerned that Murray was in serious trouble after its first loss of the season, because several of its previous games had been too close for comfort. Saint Mary's comes into this game, almost inexplicably, as the team I'm more concerned about. After its loss, Murray State has won comfortably since; by 19 at home and 9 on the road. Saint Mary's loss to Gonzaga was not surprising, but its loss by 15 at home to Loyola Marymount was extremely surprising. Having lost two of three, the Gaels have just as much to prove as the Racers do. Both these teams are almost certainly going to make the tournament. But the loser of this game stands to see its seeding drop from a possible top-3 seed two weeks ago to something more like a 10 or 11, which would be pretty unbelievable. That makes this a hugely important game for both teams.

10 p.m. Long Beach State at Creighton
A game that when it was announced look like a shot for Long Beach State to score a huge upset and put itself back on the map has now morphed into an important one for Creighton as well. The Blue Jays stopped the bleeding with a 19-point win at Southern Illinois, but their three-game losing streak is looming large in the eyes of any committee. They are still a very strong case for an at-large bid, but are in similar waters as Saint Mary's and Murray State: another loss and it starts getting really interesting. Long Beach State, on the other hand, would have one of the strongest cases for a at-large bid of any mid-major. The 49ers' record is just 19-6, but five of those losses came to San Diego State (in OT), at Louisville, at Kansas (by eight) at North Carolina (by 6) and at Kansas State. They've also won at Pittsburgh and Xavier this season. A win at Creighton would give them three excellent non-conference road wins to go with a currently perfect conference record. That's got to be a bid, or this committee will be a failure.

O yeah, and in non-Bracketbusters action UNLV plays at New Mexico, Yale is at Harvard, and Dayton will be at Xavier.

Enjoy.

Dayton's last stand

See CJ staring up at the clock? That's because he knows time is running out.

With six games to play, Dayton sits at 15-9 on the season and 5-5 in the Atlantic 10, good for eighth place in the conference. You might note that is more or less the position Dayton has finished in the conference standings the past couple years, and it is more or less the position they appear to be headed for again. Dayton's final six games consist of three games they will be favored to win (tonight against Charlotte, at Richmond and versus George Washington) and three games you would figure they will have their hands full (at Xavier, at Duquesne and versus Massachusetts).

But let's pretend for a second that despite their weary legs, lack of defense and poor depth, the Flyers manage to catch fire one more time, and start playing the way they did when they ran through Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Temple, LaSalle and Xavier en route to a 4-1 start in the A-10. Would a 21-9 record be enough to get Dayton a shot at an at-large bid? The team's resume going into the A-10 tournament would look something like this:

Record: 21-9, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: ~50
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x), Temple, Saint Louis, Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss (I'm not saying all of these actually are great wins, but they would be advertised as such)
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

That looks to me to be one of the more perplexing tournament resumes one could possibly look at. My first thought, if I didn't know who the team was, would be to figure that they had either drastically improved or fallen off over the course of the season, with the nice wins either coming early or late. But that's not been the case with this Dayton team. The quality wins and bad losses have been sprinkled evenly over the course of the season. My gut looking at the resume says no, this team would not be one deserving of an at-large. But to make sure, I took a look at the final teams to receive at-large bids over the last three years and compared them to this year's UD team. However, one final adjustment had to be made. The final at-large bids (seeds 10,11 and 12) contained teams from power-6 conferences and non-power conferences alike. In looking at the records of power-6 teams that received 11 or 12 seeds (almost certainly the type of seed Dayton would receive this year because they would likely be a First Four team), it was clear that those teams' strengths of schedule played a large difference in them getting recognition. None of those teams had 20-win seasons. UD's best possible record without 20 wins would be 19-11, and no matter who they beat, I think we can agree an at-large bid would be out of the question.

So, I decided just to look at the mid-major schools to receive at-large bids near the end of the draw. Here are their resumes:

2009
Dayton
Record: 26-7, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: 27
Quality Wins: George Mason, Xavier, Temple
Bad Losses: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Saint Louis (iffy whether that's a bad loss)

2010
Texas-El Paso
Record: 26-6, 15-1 Conference-USA
RPI: 39
Quality Wins: Houston
Bad Losses: none

Utah State
Record: 27-7, 14-2 WAC
RPI: 42
Quality Wins: BYU, New Mexico State
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, Louisiana Tech

2011
UAB
Record: 22-8, 12-4 Conference-USA
RPI: 31
Quality Wins: Arkansas? VCU?
Bad Losses: East Carolina, Southern Miss, Tulsa

VCU
Record: 23-11, 11-6 Colonial (believe it or not, they did play 17 conference games)
RPI: 49
Quality Wins: Wichita State, Old Dominion, UCLA
Bad Losses: South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern, James Madison

And here we are. A quick look at those resumes compared to UD says Dayton has no chance of an at-large. Sure, they have more quality wins by far than any team on that list, but they also have more quality losses, a worse RPI, and a worse conference and overall record than most.

However, it's important to keep in mind that Dayton wouldn't be finished at 21-9. The A-10 Tournament would still be looming large. And at 11-5 in the conference, a 4-5 seed is the most likely placement. Let's give Dayton a five seed so they play one more round. That would mean UD would have the possibility of three more wins and a loss (four wins would mean they win the automatic bid). In our continuation of the best-case scenario, UD would finish the season 24-10. And with a couple wins over some of the better A-10 competition, its RPI could improve to somewhere like 45. Now take a look at the resume:

24-10, 11-5 A-10
RPI: 45
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x(Maybe 3x)), Temple (Maybe 2x), Saint Louis (Maybe 2x), Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

The volume of bad losses still looms large, but does that resume look similar to any of the ones we showed above? How about last year's tournament darlings, the VCU Rams? 24-10 vs. 23-11, 11-5 vs. 11-6. 45 RPI vs. 49. Quality wins over mostly good mid-major teams, and several head-scratching bad losses. Not to mention that VCU finished its regular season losing four of five games before making it to the CAA Tournament final. In our projected scenario, UD would be on a nine game win streak before losing in the final. Sounds better to me.

Here's the thing, though: VCU had no business making the tournament last year. I know, I know, "they proved they deserved the bid with their play over the next three weeks". Woopty-doo, Basil. They hadn't earned their place there. They didn't have that great of a season until the tournament. But that is the opportunity the First Four provides. With three more bids in play, there is just a sliver of opportunity for a not-so-great team to sneak in if somebody on the selection committee makes the right argument.

In conclusion, If UD wins its next nine games, starting tonight against Charlotte, and then loses in the A-10 Championship Game, it will still only have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament. So Go Flyers!

I'll book my tickets for the CBI.

Mid-Major Report: 2/13

Upheaval! The strength at the top of the Mid-Major Report this season has been staggering, as several teams had put together significant win-streaks to get to the top and stay there for most of the season. Well, there's a new world order as we stare into the face of Bracketbusters week. Five of the top six teams from last week's report lost games this week. And with that, the top ten has been shaken like never before this season. The temptation was strong to drop four teams from the rankings this week so we could talk about a bunch of deserving newcomers, but that would have been ridiculous. Saint Mary's still deserves to be here So get ready to see some familiar faces, but in a whole new light. As always, you can refer to the first report of the year for information on how these rankings are achieved.

Dropped Out: Southern Miss (1-1 last week, last at 10-14 UAB)
Outside looking in: Drexel, VCU, George Mason, Saint Louis, Long Beach State

10. Creighton (21-5, 35th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Creighton is barely alive in this week's rankings after having a stranglehold on the top five all-season long. The Blue Jay's have now lost an almost inexplicable three games in a row. Their loss at Northern Iowa two weeks ago was not shocking; teams are almost always eventually going to lose a game like that when they don't play their best. But Creighton followed that up with a loss at Evansville and then a turd of a performance at home against Wichita State. In the process, they all but surrendered the Missouri Valley Conference title to the Shockers. It really has been a stunning turn of events, since the Blue Jays had easily beaten Wichita at Wichita over a month ago, and had looked just as good until February reared its head. Creighton is sporting one of the best offenses in the country, but that offense didn't show up at the same level against Northern Iowa and Evansville, and then when it was slightly better at home against Wichita State, the Blue Jays' 135-ranked adjusted-defense was exposed in giving up 89 points. Now, it's time for the Jays to draw a line in the sand. Continue free-falling, and they could unbelievably find themselves on the bubble. Right the ship, and they're still a comfortable six or seven seed.

9. Harvard (21-3, 37 Pomeroy)
Princeton got the best of Harvard again. What is up with this rivalry, that no matter how good Harvard seems to be, the Tigers have their number? Certainly, Princeton played well, shooting 50 percent from the field and going 17-24 from the foul line to Harvard's 7-11. The loss make's Harvard's situation with the NCAA Tournament much more precarious. Now with just a one-game lead in the Ivy League, losing the conference championship (the Ivy League does not hold a tournament) seems much more possible now, and would put Harvard in a similar situation to last year, when it did not receive an at-large bid. This team has gotten more recognition since the beginning of the season than last year's team did, since it was coming off a good season already. Harvard will have that going for it, but will it be enough? Probably best to just recover and win the next three games at home against Yale, Princeton and Penn, and secure the title.

8. Temple (19-5, 36 Pomeroy)
The Atlantic 10 is once again represented in the top 10. Temple sat just outside the rankings last week because despite a six-game win streak in the conference, they hadn't really beaten any of the teams that matter. Well, now that streak is up to eight, and with an easy dismantling of Xavier added to their resume, the Owls get the nod. Temple looks to be hitting its stride at the right time with Ryan Moore (18.8 ppg) and Khalif Wyatt (16.7) leading the way in scoring. Temple's 1-2 punch, along with the unflappable Juan Fernandez, gives them the 16th-best adjusted-offense in the country. And in typical Temple fashion, the Owls haven't shied away from tough competition this year. They have the 21st-rated strength of schedule in the country. And at 19-5 against that kind of competition, the Owls are to be taken seriously.

7. Murray State (24-1, 68 Pomeroy)
The Racers' six week run atop the Mid-Major Report is over. With a loss to Tennessee State at home, Murray State drops six spots in this week's poll. It was a bad loss, no question. And most writers have been chalking it up to the pressure of an undefeated season. Ken Pomeroy was bothered by this, and expressed as much in a post on his website. And while he doesn't discount the possibility of pressure playing a factor, he says the biggest reason they lost is more likely because win probabilities said there was no expectation of them continuing to win ("You play enough games in which you are heavily favored, and you are going to lose eventually. Put more precisely, a team that plays ten games as a 90% favorite is expected to lose once during that span, and the Racers have played a lot of such games this season, including the game against Tennessee State.") In my mind, the numbers guy's explanation and the feelings guys' explanations are two different ways of saying the same thing: It's really, really hard to go undefeated over the course of a college basketball season. And that's why Murray was No. 1 for as long as it was. By the way, after the loss, Murray won by 19.

6. San Diego State (20-4, 55 Pomeroy)
Any doubts we may have had about San Diego State due to their poor rating at kenpom.com should have been alleviated this week, when they came within a bucket of going 2-0 against UNLV this season. Actually, the team ratings back me up on this one. The UNLV game was SDSU's only game last week, and by losing they improved eight spots at kenpom.com from a week ago. Go figure. Playing a team highly rated by his system very closely will do that for you. Seriously, though, there should be no doubting the Aztecs from here on out. They are extremely talented and athletic, can run the floor and shoot the ball well. No doubt in my mind that they are a top 15 team in the country (as in a legitimate Elite Eight threat).

5. Brigham Young (21-6, 31 Pomeroy)
For the first time this season, BYU didn't fall out of the rankings the week after breaking into them. This is BYU's third stint in the Mid-Major Report, and during each of the previous two, they suffered losses to fall out immediately. Not this week. With a 38-point win over a bad Pepperdine squad, the Cougars extended their win-streak to three. Their 20th-rated adjusted-defense will be put to the test on the road next week; BYU plays its next three games on the road, including a huge game for them at Gonzaga. BYU has very little chance of winning the WCC, but a great shot at of improving its seeding come tournament time.

4. Saint Mary's (23-3, 32 Pomeroy)
Despite a loss at Gonzaga last week, there's no need to panic about St. Mary's. That's because it wasn't all that surprising of a loss. Gonzaga is very good; Gonzaga is a tough place to play; St. Mary's had won 12 in a row going into the game. The Gaels are still, like San Diego State, a threat to beat anybody in the country on a given day. They have the 14th-best adjusted-offense in the country, and average better than 16 assists per game. Yeah, the loss hurts just a bit, but with a Bracketbusters game at Murray State upcoming, as well as the WCC Tournament looming, the Gaels have plenty of time to do some damage and secure an excellent seed in the tournament.

3. Wichita State (22-4, 9 Pomeroy)
The Shockers have been ranked almost comically high at kenpom.com all year, but after dominating Creighton Saturday, they have set the new standard. A top-10 spot! I will say this, however, on their behalf: during the Creighton game Wichita State actually looked worthy of being so highly rated (maybe not top 10, but definitely top 20). The Shockers took a lead in the first half and never looked back, turning in a splendid offensive performance. They now have the ninth-rated adjusted-offense, 24th adjusted-defense, and 72nd best strength of schedule. Oh yeah, and they're in the driver's seat to win the MVC title now. Like Temple, they appear to be playing their best basketball of the season at a good time to do it.

2. New Mexico (20-4, 12 Pomeroy)
The Lobos are another team that play exactly to Ken Pomeroy's specifications, coming in this week with an obscenely high ranking of 12. Of course, you now know if you didn't before that New Mexico is the one team out of the top six from last week to avoid a loss. But with wins over Boise State and Wyoming (in which NM scored just 48 points), it wasn't enough to get them the top spot. Really, the reason New Mexico didn't make the cut is I'm being cautious with them once again. They climbed to fifth in the Jan. 17 Mid-Major Report, and promptly went 0-2 the following week against
San Diego State and UNLV. Well, guess who they've got coming up this week? Yup. At San Diego State and home against UNLV. Prove to me that you've changed this time around, New Mexico.

1. UNLV (22-4, 22 Pomeroy)
That's right. From No. 7 to No. 1. UNLV was that impressive (or maybe 1-6 from last week were just the opposite). Either way, anybody who watched the SDSU-UNLV game Saturday had to come away impressed by Vegas. They've got it all (except for maybe a consistent big man), and they have a player in Mike Moser who has it all individually: size, athleticism, length, speed, shooting ability, ball-handling. He was the best player on a court full of pretty excellent players. In the Mountain West Conference, clearly the best non-power-6 conference in the country, there is a three-way tie atop the league. San Diego State has lost two games by a combined 19 points. New Mexico has lost two games by a combined 12 points. And UNLV has lost two games by a combined four points (both on the road). Clearly at the moment, they've got the best resume of the group.

The real Jimmy Chitwood

This is why social media is awesome.

The Indiana High School Athletic Association posted the final minutes of the 1954 Indiana State Championship basketball game, played between Milan and Muncie Central. The Milan team was the inspiration for the greatest sports movie ever made, Hoosiers.

Soon after it was posted by the IHSAA, sports writers and personalities alike began tweeting about its existence on the web, and now, we all have the wonderful privilege of watching the grainy footage of the most exciting and famous 32-30 basketball game ever played.

For those that aren't aware, the story goes like this: until 1997, Indiana did not have divisions in high school basketball come tournament time, so what resulted was a single-class state tournament. As in, every single team in the state was playing for the same title. That meant good teams from rural areas usually had plenty of opportunity to win several games over the lesser teams from their sectionals and districts, but would inevitably lose later in the tournament when they ran into the teams from big schools in urban areas like Indianapolis, Muncie or South Bend.

That is, until Milan High School, with its enrollment of 161 students, denied powerhouse Muncie Central its fifth state championship with a defensive, slow-it-down slugfest in the 1954 title game. On a Bobby Plump buzzer-beater, Milan took the title 32-30 and went down in Indiana basketball lore.

If you know Hoosiers (and if you don't, stop reading this, go to the library, and rent it. If it's not at the library, here you go), you know the rest. Coach Marvin Wood ages several years and turns into Gene Hackman. Maris Valainis, after not even playing high school basketball, is selected to play Jimmy Chitwood, the Bobby Plump character of the movie, and actually turned out to be an incredible shooter (this scene was filmed in one take. Also, sorry about the italian. Unbelievably, this is the only version of this clip I could find anywhere on the internet).

At any rate, as awesome as Hoosiers is, it's even cooler to see what happened in real life. Movies almost always inject drama into their true stories to keep the audience riveted. In the case of that final game, no extra drama was needed. Bobby Plump hit a buzzer beater, just like Jimmy Chitwood did.

Good, Old-Fashioned kiddie fun at the Dean Dome

...So of course the same day I post about awesomeness in the NBA, college basketball made sure to steal my heart right back.

In game 2 of the 2009 Eastern Conference Semifinals, Lebron James hit a buzzer-beater to win the game. It was cool in the way that all buzzer-beaters are cool, but even more fun for me was watching the replays. From several different angles, knowing what had happened, you could look at what was going on around Lebron before and during the shot: fans, teammates, coaches, opponents, etc. For, me the best angle shown in the aftermath is the one from the opposite end of the court, with Lebron's back to you. He hits the three, then turns around, mouth open wide, screaming, and extends his arm upward, fist clenched. Of course, all the fans going bonkers in the background was cool, but none of it captured me the way the look on Lebron's face did. He looks like a little kid celebrating. The way he's screaming and how wide his eyes are, he can't believe he made the shot. And he couldn't be happier. Just like all the fans that night in Quicken Loans Arena. For me, it's cool to see an athlete, a guy who is usually all business on the court, look the way that I feel when I see a buzzer beater.

So, as you might imagine, it was about 100,000,000 times cooler to see Austin Rivers smile like a 10-year-old as he turned around to jump into the arms of Andre Dawkins and be mobbed by his teammates after hitting the game-winner (two links there, a 50-second and two-minute clip. I'd recommend the two-minuter of course) at North Carolina. Rivers is usually so serious that it seems to me he's working hard to put on the persona. But last night, as time ticked down with the ball in his hands and I was screaming, "Do something!" as Seth Curry was screaming, "Go! Go!" (see? the angles after the fact are cool), Rivers hit a shot that means he will always be remembered fondly by Duke fans. And then he turned around and shouted out loud just like I did (except he was on the court and I was on a couch). Then he ran down the court fired up, turned around and smiled the biggest smile I've ever seen on his face before being mobbed by his teammates.

As Rivers fell to the floor, he extended one arm and continued smiling, as if to say, "Thank God. Yes!" It was the same way his dad and sister and Dell Curry felt, as cameras showed them jumping around out of their seats like they had won the lottery. I had already managed to scream out loud, run up the stairs, keep screaming, and then run back downstairs and rehash every second of the game with my brother on the phone.

Both the Lebron shot and the Rivers one are amazing to watch. But what made the Duke buzzer-beater last night really special is that I felt justified in my irrational love for sports and Duke basketball. For as long as I can remember watching basketball, I've had days made or ruined by the exploits of the Duke Blue Devils (and eventually the Dayton Flyers as well). I've cried more times than I'd care to admit about Duke losses (or in some cases, wins Duke shouldn't have gotten) I know it doesn't make sense. Sports shouldn't matter this much. But I can't help it; they do. And Wednesday night, it was special to see in Rivers' face that jumper mattered even more to him than it did to me.

In defense of the NBA

Yesterday I was trying to come up with something to write about and kept coming up empty. As I drew blank after blank while scouring sports websites, it became clear why I was struggling so much. After an extremely busy time for sports, with college basketball in full swing, an extremely exciting Australian Open and the NFL playoffs, we've lost a lot. There isn't a whole lot going on in the sports world at the moment.

But basketball is still going on. And the past two nights, I've gotten a serious reminder that the NCAA isn't the only league worth watching. Despite evidence that the NBA is as popular as it's ever been, the people around me all seem to be on the opposite side. On Christmas day when I turned the NBA on, my aunt muttered, "Who gives a shit about the NBA?", right before my grandma realized what was on TV and said, "It's not real basketball, I can't watch it. All that matters is the fourth quarter."

And maybe that's true. I'll admit that the NBA features rampant, uncalled travelling violations, terrible shot selection and oftentimes lazy play. The travelling I can't defend; it bothers me too. But as for the others, its understandable. Have you ever actually watched an NBA game? These guys are unbelievable! The NBA's catchphrase for the past couple season has been "Where Amazing Happens", and it couldn't be more true. An NBA game between the Charlotte Bobcats and Memphis Grizzlies (read: two of the lesser teams in the league) contains more incredible feats of athleticism than the NFL displays in a given week. And that is exactly what was on display last night.

For NBATV's Tuesday "FanNight", the Oklahoma City Thunder were visiting the Golden State Warriors. The Thunder have the NBA's best record, while the Warriors are below .500 and struggling on defense, as has been the case for the past couple years. The Warriors' defense did not matter on Tuesday night though. What unfolded was one of the greatest displays of shot-making I've ever seen. Both teams were on fire from the get-go, and no one more so than Golden State's Monta Ellis. Ellis did his best impression of Allen Iverson-in-his-prime last night, going for 48 points while hitting shots of all types from everywhere on the court, and fearlessly going at bigger players in the process. He also became one of my favorite NBA players in the process. Take a look at some of the stat lines that came out of this game:

Monta Ellis: 48 points, 7 rebounds
David Lee: 25 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists
Stephen Curry: 16 points, 10 assists, 7 rebounds

Kevin Durant: 33 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists,
Russell Westbrook: 31 points, 7 assists
James Harden: 19 points, 7 assists, 4 steals
Daequan Cook: 17 points, 5-6 3pt fg.

You are not reading those incorrectly. Golden State had one guy with a triple double, one guy just shy of a triple double, and a guy who scored 48 points, but they still lost. This was not a symptom of them playing lazy defense. Everyone was just on fire. Seriously, those stats I listed are unbelievable and they don't come close to doing the game justice. Go watch some highlights right now. This blog post will still be here when you get back.

I just posted the link and couldn't help but watch the highlights again. And I saw the game last night. How can you be a sports fan and not appreciate something like that? How can you not love watching Monta Ellis, who looks like he might have an inch or two and about ten pounds on me, be unstoppable against all those huge dudes employed by Oklahoma City? Get off your high horse, basketball fans. The NBA is awesome.

Mid-Major Report: 2/6

We've made it to February, and college basketball is getting wild. Instead of waiting for Bracketbusters games to take place, the mid-majors of the world decided to turn in a crazy slate of results a couple weeks in advance, which will only serve to make the Bracketbusters games more intriguing. Four teams inside the top 10 lost games last week, while several others sitting just outside also suffered losses and cost themselves a shot at making it into the rankings.

As always, refer to the first report of the year for information on how I come up with these rankings.

Dropped Out: Nevada (1-1 last week, lost at home to Idaho), Oral Roberts (1-1, lost at South Dakota State)
Outside looking in: Temple, Long Beach State, Drexel, Cleveland State, VCU

10. Southern Mississippi (20-3, 45th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Southern Miss makes it's glorious return to the top 10 on the wings of a five game win streak in the Conference-USA. The Golden Eagles dispatched Central Florida away from home and avenged their only C-USA loss by beating Memphis last week. With a strong close to the season (one, maybe two more losses), Southern Miss could be looking at an at-large bid (currently a nine-seed in bracketology, but as the automatic bid for C-USA. No telling where they would be if they didn't have the conference lead at the moment). The decision to include Southern Miss over Temple and Long Beach State was a tough one, but since USM's only loss since November was a two-pointer at Memphis, they got the benefit of the doubt.

9. Brigham Young (20-6, 33 Pomeroy)
The Cougars are back after turning in a strong week with the best win of any team in the top 10. After being beaten up by St. Mary's, the Cougars rebounded and beat Gonzaga by 10 and won by 19 at Portland. Two impressive results were enough to get them back into the top 10. Joe Lunardi felt the Cougars did deserved a nod as well, as he moved them into his NCAA Tournament field in the most recent Bracketology. With the excellent front line of forwards Noah Hartsock (17.6 points per game) and Brandon Davies (14.4 ppg and 8 rebounds per game), if BYU can close out the season strong, they'll be primed to make the tournament and perhaps make some noise with an upset or two.

8.. Wichita State (20-4, 16 Pomeroy)
The Shockers took care of business at Missouri State and at home against Indiana State in two close games, and so maintained their ranking for another week. Make no mistake, Wichita is the real deal. I don't know who Wichita State will be playing in the first round of the tournament, but I'm almost certain I'll be picking them to win the game. They are not 16th best in the country, as kenpom.com's team rankings indicate, but they are a top-30 team. They are ranked in the top 50 in the country in most important statistical categories, and are especially well-liked by the advanced metrics like adjusted offense and defense (13th and 25th, respectively). Don't sleep on the Shockers.

7. UNLV (21-4, 18 Pomeroy)
The Rebels stumbled at Wyoming last week, taking a 68-66 defeat after having two great looks to tie/win the game. This came as a pretty disappointing loss after UNLV was looking good to run through the Mountain West right up to its rematch with San Diego State. But after the loss to Wyoming, I have a bit of concern about the Rebels' ability to win on the road. Despite a nice road win at Illinois earlier in the year, all four of UNLV's losses have come on the road, and they've needed overtime to beat UC Santa-Barbara, Air Force and Boise State away from home. Not exactly some top competition there. Luckily for UNLV, you don't have to win on the road to win in the NCAA Tournament, and they will be there. They might do well to go for some wins in their remaining road games at New Mexico, Texas Christian and Colorado State, though, or it could kill their seeding.

6. Harvard (20-2, 38 Pomeroy)
Coming in at sixth and back in the Top 25 of the coaches poll is Harvard. Now riding an eight game win streak, the Crimson are still undefeated in the Ivy League and have a tiebreak advantage to pad their one-game lead over second-place Yale. Avoiding a hiccup at Pennsylvania will be key for Harvard in the upcoming week. Penn was the team that undid Harvard's season a year ago, and they will be looking to bring some of the same magic to this matchup. Harvard's defense is still among the best in the country (21st in adjusted-defense), and kept it up against Cornell and Columbia last week, holding the opponents to 60 and 52 points.

5. Creighton (21-3, 24 Pomeroy)
The Blue Jays lost a second game in the Missouri Valley Conference and are now tied with Wichita State with a game still to play against the Shockers. Creighton's decline with a loss this week was not as precipitous as some drops in the past in these rankings because it came on a buzzer-beater away from home. A quick look at Creighton's 65-62 loss at Northern Iowa and it looks more like a fluke than an indication of Creighton being exposed. The top team in the country for field-goal percentage at 51.2 percent, Creighton shot just 42.1 percent at Northern Iowa and scored 62 points, compared to its season average of 81 per game (sixth in the country). Similar to the Blue Jays' Dec. 28 loss to Missouri State, this just looks like a game in which they struggled shooting, and it resulted in a close game that they couldn't quite win in the end. It does, however, make the teams Feb. 11 rematch with Wichita State extremely important. The winner will almost certainly win the MVC regular season.

4. New Mexico (19-4, 10 Pomeroy)
Despite being terrifically overrated by kenpom.com's system (10th is the highest any team has been in the report this year, and its a whopping 13 spots higher than NM was last week), New Mexico does appear to have righted the ship and be very good. Whereas UNLV required overtime to beat both Air Force and Boise State on the road, New Mexico dealt with both teams easily last week, winning by 39 and 16 points, respectively. The Lobos have the 29th best adjusted-offense and 12th best adjusted-defense in the country. That's the good news. The bad news? The next four games are against Wyoming, at San Diego State, home against UNLV, and at Colorado State. Not what one would call a friendly stretch, and it produced New Mexico's only two losses in the Mountain West last time.

3. San Diego State (20-3, 63 Pomeroy)
Despite a 2-0 week, SDSU dropped 10 more spots at kenpom.com, most likely due in large part to a two point squeak-by of Boise State at home. Still, the Aztecs are alone atop the Mountain West again and that is no small feat. The numbers continue to not back up the 20-3 record SDSU is sporting, and yet Steve Fischer's squad keeps on winning, which is why numbers are not all we can look at in sports. New Mexico has a tough stretch coming up but so does San Diego State. First the Aztecs will travel to UNLV for a rematch, and UNLV will be hungry afer losing by two in the first meeting. Then its a home game against New Mexico. Whatever SDSU has accomplished so far, it could fall apart pretty quickly if they don't get up for the next two games. Such is life in the MWC.

2. Saint Mary's (22-2, 26 Pomeroy)
If a tournament were organized of the 10 teams on this list plus the six best mid-major teams after them, I would probably be picking St. Mary's to win it all. Now up to a 12 game winning streak after a rest week with just one game against San Diego last week, the Gaels have been extremely impressive this season. In the latest Bracketology, they were given only a five seed, which seemed too low to me. The good news for the Gaels is they will have two golden opportunities to improve on that seeding in the coming weeks. With games at Gonzaga and Murray State, St. Mary's still has a couple very challenging tests ahead. Can Matthew Dellavedova continue being the best guard on the court when he's matching up against Kevin Pangos and Isaiah Canaan? If so, this team is headed for a two or three seed in the tourney.

1. Murray State (23-0, 61 Pomeroy)
Another week, another couple wins for the Racers, and a further decline in the Ken Pomeroy rankings. Why? Because beating teams like Southest Missouri State and Tennessee-Martin doesn't count for much in those rankings unless the win is by 30 or more. Which is valid. The good news for the Racers is I don't think anyone is buying into that number 61 next to their names. And maybe people are buying in the number 9 assigned to them in the coach's poll either, but they should at least realized Murray State isn't far from there. You just don't get to 23-0 without being really good. Sure, the 309th-ranked strength of schedule might make it easier, but teams like Dayton, Southern Miss, Western Kentucky and Memphis wouldn't take too kindly to you calling them cream puffs. If you're not sold on Murray, just wait another week and a half. Watch the game against Saint Mary's. Even if they lose, I'm guessing you'll be impressed.

Just around the corner

Welcome back, UD basketball.

You had us fooled for a bit there, what at 4-1 in the A-10 with a beautiful new style of play wins over the other three best teams in the conference. But thank you for setting us straight. For at least one more year, we're going to be treated to mediocrity and inconsistency personified. When you beat Xavier and Temple, you'll lose to St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island.

The only thing that is alarming about Dayton's recent three-game skid is that I didn't see it coming. It happens every year. UD looks good, then its NCAA Tournament chances are gone. Five wins later, maybe we were wrong about them. But sure to follow is a bad non-conference loss, effectively ending that glimmer of hope. After another run of great wins, they are the toast of the town, and sometimes the nation. UD followed the same formula as the last several years: keep the fans interested, barely. And once again, the team had me fooled.

After watching the game (debacle) against Duquesne in person (Flyers still winless with me in the Arena this year, heartbreaking), I'll still be following Dayton basketball closely, but not with the same naive sense of hope. Not the naive hope I somehow got back after they quit in a game and lost to Buffalo by 29. With the loss Dayton fell to 4-4 in the Atlantic 10, with most of its toughest road games still to play. The only way UD could secure an at-large bid at this point is to go 6-2 or better in the final half of the A-10 season. And 6-2 would be pushing it. Teams need to separate themselves from the pack in the A-10 this year to get noticed. And 9-7 won't do that, even if all 9 wins are great ones.

So from here on out, it's put up or shut up time. And after seeing UD do anything but put up in games that should have been easy wins at home against Rhody and Duquesne, my outlook is rather bleak. Dayton gave up a combined 169 points in the two games and was uninterested on the defensive end. Against Duquesne, after the Dukes played the best half of Duquesne basketball this season, UD put up for five or six minutes. They cut a nine point halftime deficit to one, and then shut it down offensively and defensively. Duquesne started getting better looks. UD stopped pounding the ball inside. And, predictably, the game got away from them in the end. Watching it unfold, I couldn't help but be stunned. They had Duquesne right where they wanted them. That was looking like it was going to be a terrific second half capped by a 13-point UD win. Try a 10-point UD loss. And after seeing it in person, I know: for at least one more year, this the still Dayton basketball program that we love, and then hate.