Bracketbusters Primer

What's On and Why to Watch
This Saturday is the most important weekend of the college basketball regular season. Rivalry week is cool and sometimes we get weekends with several good games, but nothing comes close in importance to Bracketbusters. More than any other single weekend during the season, it shapes the field of the NCAA Tournament. Some of the teams playing this weekend are almost certainly in the field (St. Mary's-Murray State) and will be playing more for seeding purposes. Others, however, will be playing to put themselves in strong position for an at-large bid if they don't happen to win their conference tournaments (Long Beach State, Davidson, Akron-Oral Roberts, Nevada-Iona). And all these key games will be on TV! If you haven't been doing your homework on college basketball and watching some its lesser-known teams, now is your best shot. Pay attention, because at least two of these teams will get good matchups come tournament time and make it through the first weekend. If you watched them now, you just might pick it correctly then.

11 a.m. Drexel at Cleveland State
In the first game of the day, we have a key game for Drexel. Cleveland State looked like an at-large contender for much of the season, but it has lost too many games in the Horizon League to make a case anymore. Winning the Horizon Tournament is the Vikings' only shot. Drexel, on the other hand, has won 14 straight and sits tied atop the Colonial at 14-2. The Dragons looked weak earlier in the year due to some top players sitting out. They would appear to have hit their stride, and a quality road win Saturday would greatly help their chances at an at-large bid. A loss, however, would be crippling. With Cleveland State not quite as strong resume-wise as was expected a couple weeks ago, this has become a virtual must-win game for Drexel.

Noon Wichita State at Davidson
At 20-6 and 14-2 in the Southern Conference, Davidson is still on the outside looking in. 20-6 is a great record, just not coming from that conference with losses to the likes of College of Charleston and Samford. With a win over Wichita State, however, the Wildcats would make a very serious case for themselves to be deserving of an at-large bid. Wichita, on the other hand, looks like a lock for the tournament and finds itself in much the same position Creighton was in a couple weeks ago: keep winning and earn yourself an excellent seed, maybe as high as a four. Lose, and then we're talking about the 7-8-9-10 range, giving the Shockers a much more difficult second-round matchup than they would like.

2 p.m. Akron at Oral Roberts
4 p.m. Nevada at Iona
Both these games are simple: win and you're barely on the bubble; lose and your only shot is the automatic bid. All four teams have had great seasons, but have had untimely losses to weak conference opponents. Those types of losses can only be forgiven to a certain extent. My gut tells me only Iona has an outside shot of actually receiving an at-large bid from the selection committee. So definitely root for the Gaels to win if you're a mid-major fan.

6 p.m. Saint Mary's at Murray State
Everyone was extremely concerned that Murray was in serious trouble after its first loss of the season, because several of its previous games had been too close for comfort. Saint Mary's comes into this game, almost inexplicably, as the team I'm more concerned about. After its loss, Murray State has won comfortably since; by 19 at home and 9 on the road. Saint Mary's loss to Gonzaga was not surprising, but its loss by 15 at home to Loyola Marymount was extremely surprising. Having lost two of three, the Gaels have just as much to prove as the Racers do. Both these teams are almost certainly going to make the tournament. But the loser of this game stands to see its seeding drop from a possible top-3 seed two weeks ago to something more like a 10 or 11, which would be pretty unbelievable. That makes this a hugely important game for both teams.

10 p.m. Long Beach State at Creighton
A game that when it was announced look like a shot for Long Beach State to score a huge upset and put itself back on the map has now morphed into an important one for Creighton as well. The Blue Jays stopped the bleeding with a 19-point win at Southern Illinois, but their three-game losing streak is looming large in the eyes of any committee. They are still a very strong case for an at-large bid, but are in similar waters as Saint Mary's and Murray State: another loss and it starts getting really interesting. Long Beach State, on the other hand, would have one of the strongest cases for a at-large bid of any mid-major. The 49ers' record is just 19-6, but five of those losses came to San Diego State (in OT), at Louisville, at Kansas (by eight) at North Carolina (by 6) and at Kansas State. They've also won at Pittsburgh and Xavier this season. A win at Creighton would give them three excellent non-conference road wins to go with a currently perfect conference record. That's got to be a bid, or this committee will be a failure.

O yeah, and in non-Bracketbusters action UNLV plays at New Mexico, Yale is at Harvard, and Dayton will be at Xavier.

Enjoy.