Monday, December 12, 2011

Mid-Major Report: 12/12


We're a few weeks into the college basketball season, and most teams have played 10-ish games. That means I feel like I have enough information to talk about the best mid-major teams in the country. Everyone has played enough games that I will believe a bit more in the various computer-ratings around the country and can see what they've done against a large enough variety of competition to attempt to compare teams from small conferences across the country that will not be playing each other at any time during this season.

A quick couple of caveats before we get into the top mid-majors in the country. On ESPN.com, Myron Medcalf's mid-major report, certain conferences, like the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West, are not included because they are not mid-majors in the sense that conferences like the Sun Belt or Patriot League are mid-majors. That is true, but I will still be including every conference aside from the Big Six. I will not be including certain teams from those conferences however. Xavier, Gonzaga and Memphis will never appear on this list despite being from mid-major conferences. Those programs recruit and play like Big Six teams, and everyone in the country is aware of them. The point of this list to clue people in to some of the teams they haven't seen on TV and who they should pay attention. Also, this list is not necessarily a reflection of which teams would win if they played head to head. In fact, in this week's list, there will be teams that have played head-to-head with the loser being higher ranked. The ranking is more a reflection of which team has earned it more so far. A team who has gone on the road and won games, or beaten tough opponents will be given more love than a team that is 11-1 with half of its wins against D-II schools. Without further ado, my top 10 so far.

10. Kent State (7-1, 61 in Ken Pomeroy rankings)
The Golden Flashes perhaps sneak into my first at number 10 because they haven't really beaten anybody this year. Unlike the other teams contending for the back end of this ranking who also haven't beaten anybody, however, Kent State has gone on the road and won, which gets you some major points in my book. The Flashes are 3-0 in true road games this year, including a 10 point win at West Virginia to start the year. They haven't played a tough schedule, but they've done the best possible with it.

9. Wichita State (7-2, 29 Pomeroy)
The Shockers came into the season with high expectations (the Missouri Valley Conference favorite) and for the most part have not disappointed. Their two losses are in neutral court games to Alabama and Temple (in overtime), two pretty good teams. Unfortunately for Wichita State, those games make up two of the three strong opponents they have played so far (the other being an 89-70 win over UNLV at home). If the Shockers were starting the week with a win in either of those games, they would almost certainly be top-five on this list, maybe top three. But you've got to win the big games. Aside from Bama, Temple and UNLV, Wichita hasn't played a team worth mentioning, and only has played one true road game. The Shockers still have plenty to prove.

8. Brigham Young (8-2, 17 Pomeroy)
BYU is the WCC's lone representative this week (Gonzaga is exluded, but probably wouldn't have cracked the top 10 anyway). The Cougars' two losses are at Utah State (when the Aggies were still looking good to open the season) and on a neutral court against Wisconsin. Both forgivable. Unfortunately, similar to Wichita State, the Cougars have played just about nobody otherwise (259th toughest non-conference schedule in Pomeroy's rankings). Still, they are by far the highest-rated team in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, and that does count for something to me after 10 games, so they edge the shockers out for the eight spot. BYU will have a chance to show what it's made of in a big game against Baylor December 17. After that, it is smooth sailing into the conference season.

7. UNLV (9-2, 24 Pomeroy)
UNLV was the undisputed top mid-major team a couple weeks ago. At that point, they were 7-0 and had just upset then-No. 1 North Carolina, and done it with relative ease in the second half. How had we all overlooked this team so egregiously? What we had failed to realize at that point was the Rebels had yet to play a true road game. Since then, they've played three. After a 2-overtime squeak-by over UC Santa Barbara, UNLV was beaten by 19 at Wichita State and 11 at Wisconsin. They scored just 51 points in Madison, despite averaging better than 80 per game this year. With their recent results taken into consideration, and the major concern about their ability on the road, UNLV drops significantly, into the seven spot.

6. Cleveland State (10-1, 69 Pomeroy)
The lowest Ken Pomeroy-ranked team in this week's poll, Cleveland State comes in at sixth because of its superb performance on the road this year. In 11 games, the Vikings have played three home games, two neutral site games, and six (!) true road games. They have won every one of those true road games, including a 61-57 decision at Vanderbilt to start the season. Vandy is typically extremely tough at home and extremely weak on the road, so the win is all the more impressive for Cleveland State. This team does have plenty of concerns, however. It is 259th in the country in scoring per game, 316th (!) in rebounding, and 172nd in field goal percentage. The rest of the country's scoring will probably come up in the coming weeks, and Cleveland State will likely trend toward the middle of the pack, but the rebounding and shooting numbers cannot stay where they are if the Vikings expect to keep winning.

5. Saint Louis (9-1, 23 Pomeroy)
The Billikens have tons of experience and looked very poised to threaten Xavier for the A-10 title early in the season. Then they lost at Loyola Marymount, and we realized that they don't have any real quality wins, despite beating big-name teams like Washington, Boston College, Villanova and Oklahoma (all those teams are down this year). Still, St. Louis is 9-1 and has some great shooters in addition to a seemingly vastly improved inside game with Brian Conklin. If they hold form in the A-10 season and turn in a 12-4 type performance, they could be looking at an at-large bid to the NCAAs.

4. San Diego State, (9-2, 58 Pomeroy)
The Aztecs figured to be in a rebuilding year after their best season ever in 2010-11. That is looking like anything but the case given what they've done so far. San Diegot State has raced to a 9-2 start, with losses coming at Baylor and a two-point decision against Creighton (see below). In the meantime, SDSU has won three true road games (including at Arizona) and beaten another top-25 ranked Pac-12 foe with a one-point victory over California. Looks like it's going to be another season with SDSU in the NCAA discussion (and my mid-major top five) all year long.

Murray State (10-0, 56 Pomeroy)
The Racers are the lone unbeaten of the bunch, and the team Ken Pomeroy says has the best chance of going undefeated this season (a result of the fact that they play in the weak Ohio Valley Conference more than the Racers being an amazing team). Whether or not that happens, Murray State has cemented itself as one of the top mid-majors in the country with a win over Memphis last night. The Racers have also won four true road games and are an excellent three-point shooting team. Like many undersized mid-major teams from the past, this one will almost certainly lose games due to poor shooting nights. But make no mistake; it's tough enough to go 10-0. These guys are the real deal.

2. Harvard (9-1, 34 Pomeroy)
Yes, Harvard. It may seem like this team is coming out of nowhere, but that's not the case. They lost the Ivy League regular season championship on a last-second shot to Princeton last year. And the Ivy League doesn't have a conference tournament, the regular season winner gets an automatic bid. Thus, Harvard had to sit around and fall out of everyone's minds while conference tournaments ran rampant across the country. The result? No at-large for the Crimson. This year, they're back with a vengeance. With the program's lone loss coming at UConn (a Final Four contender), a win over Florida State and four true road wins, Harvard is looking to seal up an at-large bid early this year. With the country taking notice (they cracked the top-25 for the first time this year), Tommy Amaker and crew appear to be in good shape.

1. Creighton (7-1, 49 Pomeroy)
Hate to have my number one team coming off a loss, but there was just no better option than the Blue Jays this week. Despite a head-scratching 80-71 setback at Saint Joseph's Creighton has been as good as any mid-major (and most teams in general) this season. They are averaging 85.1 points per game (fifth in the country), 20.5 assists per game (first) and shooting better than 51 percent from the field (fourth best). Sure, Creighton has not played the toughest competition, but in their toughest test of the year thus far, they passed, with an 85-83 win at San Diego State. That's an extremely difficult road game to play, and the Blue Jays showed they were up to the task. Since most of the other top teams in this poll had recent losses as well, Creighton tops my first mid-major top 10 of the season.

1 comment:

  1. Nate, Excellent post. You obviously did a lot of research and analysis. Did you consider the Iona Gaels of the MAAC? 7-2 record and 2nd in the nation in scoring. Unfortunately they are coming off a perplexing loss by 19 to Marshall. Long Beach State deserves a shout out for playing on the road Pitt, Carolina, Louisville, San Diego State and Kansas already this season. Beat Pitt and were close in the rest. A losing record but an unbelievable schedule.

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