Mid-Major Report: 2/21

After a fantastic Bracketbusters weekend, here we are again with the Mid-Major Report. Similar to last week, there have been some serious shake-ups regarding the rankings. With so many good teams playing each other, that was bound to happen. But the week also produced some extremely surprising results outside of Bracketbusters games, specifically in the Mountain West Conference. That is why we have a new number one team. Keep reading to see who they are. As always, refer to the first report of the year for information about how these rankings are achieved.

Dropped Out: San Diego State (0-2 last week, lost to New Mexico and Air Force), Saint Mary's (0-2 last week, lost to Loyola Marymount and at Murray State, have now lost three of four)
A very surprising duo to see fall from the rankings, considering two weeks ago I would have said neither one had a shot at dropping out. But then again, I didn't foresee results like these.
Outside Looking In: Iona, Long Beach State(had their shot at Creighton), George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Weber State

10. Saint Louis (22-5, 11th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings
The Billikens return to the Mid-Major Report after a six-week hiatus. They looked among the best mid-majors in the country early in the year, but then lost a couple games and couldn't string enough wins together to get back on top. Now, Saint Louis has won six in a row and nine of ten, including a win at Xavier during the stretch, to provide a little separation for itself from the teams behind it in the Atlantic 10 standings. The Billikens have been highly rated by kenpom.com's system the entire season (39th-ranked adjusted offense, 10th adjusted-defense, top-100 strength of schedule), and appear to be living up to their predictive billing now. With just three games left, the Billikens go on the road twice and play Xavier at home--not an easy road to the finish. But they look to be in good shape for a middling seed at the NCAA Tournament.

9. UNLV (22-6, 29 Pomeroy)
The Rebels were the number 1 team last week, mainly because I couldn't justify placing New Mexico ahead of them. Well, they quickly let me know I should have done just that by losing in overtime to TCU at home. And then they made sure to let the country know they weren't up to the task of being No. 1 by delivering their lowest offensive output on the season by 19 points, and getting trounced at New Mexico in the process. The high ranking from last week and win over San Diego State are all that barely kept the Rebels in the top 10. They are still a very good team, and Mike Moser is one of the very best players on any mid-major team in the country. The Rebels will recover, but last week was ugly.

8. Drexel (23-5, 46 Pomeroy)
The Drexel Dragons are making their debut in the Mid-Major top 10 on the strength of a 15-game winning streak (and they've won 21 of their last 22). After dealing with injuries at the beginning of the year, the Dragons are at full strength and atop the Colonial Athletic Association (tied with George Mason). The Colonial looks like a better conference than it has been given credit for this season, as it fared pretty well in Bracketbusters games (the top four teams in the conference all won, including Drexel by 20 at Cleveland State and Old Dominion at Missouri State). So at 14-2, the Dragons probably deserve more credit than they've been given so far. Despite middle of the road advanced metrics (66th adjusted-offense, 51st adjusted-defense), the Dragons looked very impressive Saturday and are hot as can be.

7. Creighton (23-5, 37 Pomeroy)
Creighton went 2-0 last week, but is barely in the top 10 after stealing its Bracketbusters game from Long Beach State. You can't help but feel like the Blue Jays would be gone if they had been unfortunate enough to have a road game instead of a home one. But they played at home, and with wins at Southern Illinois and over LBSU, they may have righted the ship. Sure, the Jays gave away the the Missouri Valley regular season, but they still have the best player in the conference in Doug McDermott, and with a run in the MVC Tournament, could play themselves back into good seeding in the NCAAs.

6. Harvard (23-3, 30 Pomeroy)
After the disappointing loss at Princeton last week, Harvard got back to what it does best (18th-ranked adjusted-defense), and gave up 42 and 51 points with wins over Brown and Yale last week. The win over Yale in particular was important because a loss would have meant the Crimson had fallen back to the pack in the Horizon League standings. But with the win it maintained a game advantage over Penn and extended its lead on Yale to two games. Harvard still has key games against Princeton and Penn (both at home) to come, so its fate is far from determined yet.

5. Temple (21-5, 31 Pomeroy)
It was a relatively pedestrian week for Temple, which enjoyed wins over A-10 middle-of-the-pack-ers St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. Still, two wins at this stage of the season always look good. With four games to play, Temple has one tough week (this week), and one that looks much simpler in closing out the season. The Owls play at LaSalle (a surprising 18-9, 7-5 in the A-10 this year) and then a rivalry game at St. Joseph's, which has also played above its expectations in the conference this year, posting an 8-5 mark so far. Both those games should be wins for Temple, but don't underestimate the upset potential of a road game against the other A-10 school from Philadelphia.

4. Brigham Young (23-6, 32 Pomeroy)
Yes, BYU has climbed to fourth in the rankings. Despite losing twice to Saint Mary's this year, the Cougars are in the top five, while the Gaels are outside the top 10. But guess what? BYU's record in the last two weeks is 4-0, and St. Mary's is 1-3. Sure, BYU's mark has come against lesser competition (at San Francisco (not bad) and at Santa Clara (terrible) last week), but these rankings are about who's playing well right now. The Gaels aren't. The Cougars seem to be. We'll find out just how well they're playing this week, when BYU visits Gonzaga Thursday. It will not be a game they are expected to win, but if BYU can pull off the upset, like New Mexico, we'll have to start taking them very seriously.

3. Murray State (26-1, 57 Pomeroy)
Everyone can go ahead and calm back down about whether the Racers are for real or not. Since its loss to Tennessee State, Murray State has gone 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 14 points. And if you didn't follow college basketball this weekend, Murray's most recent victory was a 14-point clubbing of Saint Mary's, in which the Racers took the lead and never looked back. For being the game most Bracketbusters aficionados were looking forward to, it was pretty anticlimactic. The Racers were really in control of a team that until about a week and a half ago I thought was the best mid-major in the country. So much for that. Even though kenpom.com will still never be able to fully give the Racers the love they deserve due to their run of close games and poor strength of schedule, they still jumped 11 spots in his rankings from last week. That's pretty significant this late in the season. And now, a running of the table has Murray back in the conversation for a top-5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

2. Wichita State (24-4, 10 Pomeroy)
In you were to ask me who was the most impressive team from Bracketbusters weekend, I would not hesitate in saying it was the Shockers. They appear to be living up to the lofty expectations kenpom.com has had for them for most of the season. On Saturday Wichita visited Davidson and matched up with a very impressive Wildcats squad (one that I suspect will be on these rankings most of next year; they bring all five starters back). After an extremely entertaining first half, the Shockers just imposed their will on Davidson en route to a 91-74 win. Wichita really looked excellent. It shot the ball extremely well, showed off its impressive depth and athleticism, and delivered a dominant offensive second half. These players--Joe Ragland, Toure' Murry, Ben Smith, David Kyles and Carl Hall, are as athletic a group as anywhere in America that I've seen this season. O, and not mentioned in that group is the Shockers' leading scorer and rebounder, 7-footer Garrett Stutz.

1. New Mexico (22-4, 9 Pomeroy)
In similar fashion to Wichita, New Mexico lived up to its advanced-metric hype this past week. At No. 2 last week, I said the Lobos would have to prove to me that they've changed since the beginning of the conference season. Well, prove themsevles they did. With a 10-point win at San Diego State and a 20-point win (and dominant defensive performance) at home against UNLV, the Lobos delivered the most impressive two-win week of any team in the Mid-Major Report this year. With losses by both SDSU and UNLV to other opponents during the week, New Mexico also seized control of the Mountain West regular season race, opening up a 2-game lead. They have the seventh-ranked adjusted-defense at kenpom.com and a star in Drew Gordon who is playing his best ball at the right time (17 points, 17 rebounds at SDSU, 27 points, 20 rebounds vs. UNLV). After a fantastic weekend of college basketball, New Mexico and The Pit sit at No. 1.