Dayton's last stand

See CJ staring up at the clock? That's because he knows time is running out.

With six games to play, Dayton sits at 15-9 on the season and 5-5 in the Atlantic 10, good for eighth place in the conference. You might note that is more or less the position Dayton has finished in the conference standings the past couple years, and it is more or less the position they appear to be headed for again. Dayton's final six games consist of three games they will be favored to win (tonight against Charlotte, at Richmond and versus George Washington) and three games you would figure they will have their hands full (at Xavier, at Duquesne and versus Massachusetts).

But let's pretend for a second that despite their weary legs, lack of defense and poor depth, the Flyers manage to catch fire one more time, and start playing the way they did when they ran through Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Temple, LaSalle and Xavier en route to a 4-1 start in the A-10. Would a 21-9 record be enough to get Dayton a shot at an at-large bid? The team's resume going into the A-10 tournament would look something like this:

Record: 21-9, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: ~50
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x), Temple, Saint Louis, Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss (I'm not saying all of these actually are great wins, but they would be advertised as such)
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

That looks to me to be one of the more perplexing tournament resumes one could possibly look at. My first thought, if I didn't know who the team was, would be to figure that they had either drastically improved or fallen off over the course of the season, with the nice wins either coming early or late. But that's not been the case with this Dayton team. The quality wins and bad losses have been sprinkled evenly over the course of the season. My gut looking at the resume says no, this team would not be one deserving of an at-large. But to make sure, I took a look at the final teams to receive at-large bids over the last three years and compared them to this year's UD team. However, one final adjustment had to be made. The final at-large bids (seeds 10,11 and 12) contained teams from power-6 conferences and non-power conferences alike. In looking at the records of power-6 teams that received 11 or 12 seeds (almost certainly the type of seed Dayton would receive this year because they would likely be a First Four team), it was clear that those teams' strengths of schedule played a large difference in them getting recognition. None of those teams had 20-win seasons. UD's best possible record without 20 wins would be 19-11, and no matter who they beat, I think we can agree an at-large bid would be out of the question.

So, I decided just to look at the mid-major schools to receive at-large bids near the end of the draw. Here are their resumes:

2009
Dayton
Record: 26-7, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: 27
Quality Wins: George Mason, Xavier, Temple
Bad Losses: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Saint Louis (iffy whether that's a bad loss)

2010
Texas-El Paso
Record: 26-6, 15-1 Conference-USA
RPI: 39
Quality Wins: Houston
Bad Losses: none

Utah State
Record: 27-7, 14-2 WAC
RPI: 42
Quality Wins: BYU, New Mexico State
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, Louisiana Tech

2011
UAB
Record: 22-8, 12-4 Conference-USA
RPI: 31
Quality Wins: Arkansas? VCU?
Bad Losses: East Carolina, Southern Miss, Tulsa

VCU
Record: 23-11, 11-6 Colonial (believe it or not, they did play 17 conference games)
RPI: 49
Quality Wins: Wichita State, Old Dominion, UCLA
Bad Losses: South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern, James Madison

And here we are. A quick look at those resumes compared to UD says Dayton has no chance of an at-large. Sure, they have more quality wins by far than any team on that list, but they also have more quality losses, a worse RPI, and a worse conference and overall record than most.

However, it's important to keep in mind that Dayton wouldn't be finished at 21-9. The A-10 Tournament would still be looming large. And at 11-5 in the conference, a 4-5 seed is the most likely placement. Let's give Dayton a five seed so they play one more round. That would mean UD would have the possibility of three more wins and a loss (four wins would mean they win the automatic bid). In our continuation of the best-case scenario, UD would finish the season 24-10. And with a couple wins over some of the better A-10 competition, its RPI could improve to somewhere like 45. Now take a look at the resume:

24-10, 11-5 A-10
RPI: 45
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x(Maybe 3x)), Temple (Maybe 2x), Saint Louis (Maybe 2x), Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

The volume of bad losses still looms large, but does that resume look similar to any of the ones we showed above? How about last year's tournament darlings, the VCU Rams? 24-10 vs. 23-11, 11-5 vs. 11-6. 45 RPI vs. 49. Quality wins over mostly good mid-major teams, and several head-scratching bad losses. Not to mention that VCU finished its regular season losing four of five games before making it to the CAA Tournament final. In our projected scenario, UD would be on a nine game win streak before losing in the final. Sounds better to me.

Here's the thing, though: VCU had no business making the tournament last year. I know, I know, "they proved they deserved the bid with their play over the next three weeks". Woopty-doo, Basil. They hadn't earned their place there. They didn't have that great of a season until the tournament. But that is the opportunity the First Four provides. With three more bids in play, there is just a sliver of opportunity for a not-so-great team to sneak in if somebody on the selection committee makes the right argument.

In conclusion, If UD wins its next nine games, starting tonight against Charlotte, and then loses in the A-10 Championship Game, it will still only have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament. So Go Flyers!

I'll book my tickets for the CBI.