Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Mid-Major Report: 1/11


I apologize for the irregularity as to what day of the week these rankings are coming out. The goal is to have it on each Monday, but it falls entirely on what my work schedule for the week ends up looking like. That being said, it should never be later than a Wednesday (which is today).

As always, refer back to the first report of the season for guidelines on how I make my decisions.

First, a couple notes on this week's rankings:
1. I set out in the first report that I would be including some of the larger non-BCS leagues like the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West in my poll. Those teams have advantages over teams from the tiny conferences like the SWAC or MAAC, certainly, but they are still playing with rosters empty of McDonald's All-Americans and one-and-done type players. That being said, the point of this list is also to raise awareness about some teams that maybe a casual fan hasn't heard of. It's the type of thing that could be helpful picking an 8/9 game when you're filling out your NCAA bracket in March, or just to give you a little extra knowledge. And with that being the most important aspect to me, if the Mountain West continues its brutalization of this poll (three teams in last week, four this week), I will have to reassess whether or not I use that conference in my rankings anymore. Typically, the Mountain West has one or two teams doing very well, and others trying to put together a strong enough resume to get a bid in the tournament. The conference often has a third or fourth team on the bubble for the NCAAs. It is atypical, however for any conference, let alone the Mountain West, to have four teams with records of 14-2 or better. In fact, the Mountain West is the only conference in the country that can boast such a stat (the Big Ten (now Twelve) falls just short). That is why I'm confident (hopeful?) as the teams begin to play each other and hit a tougher schedule in general (Ahem, Wyoming and New Mexico), their records will normalize and it will make room for some of the other teams deserving of recognition.

2. Three teams fell out of the standings from being ranked last week: Saint Louis, Virginia Commonwealth and Harvard. You'll notice a similarity between all these teams: they lost last week. For VCU and Saint Louis, who were both in the bottom half of the poll, a loss is always going to hurt a team's chances of sticking around (VCU's two losses made it an easy decision). Perhaps for Harvard, though, dropping from fourth to nonexistent seems a bit harsh. Unfortunately for the Crimson, it had to happen. They lost at Fordham, a team that is by no means as bad as it has been the past few years, but is still just 7-8 on the season. And during the same week, tons of teams (unranked and ranked below Harvard in last week's poll) went on the road and won games against competition equal to or greater than Harvard. Keep in mind: it's tough to be in the top 10 of this poll. Using the larger mid-major conferences means there are a ton of deserving teams, and losses are always going to be hugely detrimental.

3. You may notice there are 11 teams in this week's poll. That's not a mistake. Call me a coward if you like, but I didn't have the heart to say one of the bottom four teams didn't deserve to be in. Last week's No. 10 team, Middle Tennessee, has probably the weakest resume of the group, but they were ranked last week, and went 2-0 since to improve to 15-2. They've now won seven in a row. Sorry, but the Blue Raiders deserve to stick around. Right, on to the rankings.

10. Middle Tennessee (15-2, 57 in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings) and Iona (13-3, 42 Pomeroy)
You just read the argument for Middle Tennessee: 15-2, seven in a row, undefeated in the conference and they still are one of the best shooting teams in the country; 49.5 percent on the year, good for 10th best. As far as Iona, they make the list because they are now 5-0 in the MAAC, and have won six of seven. Now that the Gaels have ended a long road trip (eight straight games away from home), they're showing that they're actually pretty good. Playing on the road is tougher than being at home. Iona could have taken an easier route and would probably be 15-1 right now. But they didn't, so they're 13-3. After a strong week of play, they'll get the credit they deserve, at least here. O yeah, Iona scores the second-most points in the country (85.9 a game), dishes out the most assists (20.2) and shoots it even better than their 10th-ranked compatriots (50.4 percent from the field).

9. Wichita State (13-3, 22 Pomeroy)
A 3-0 week with wins over Evansville, Southern Illinois and Illinois State has the Shockers back into the top 10 after a week's hiatus. They have rebounded well from the loss to Creighton, but will need to play at a higher level in the coming weeks to stay afloat in the Missouri Valley Conference, probably the second best non-BCS league in the country this year (competing with the A-10 right now for that spot). They are liked very much by Ken Pomeroy's rankings, with a good strength of schedule, and top-30 Adjusted-offense and defense.

8. Wyoming (14-2, 69 Pomeroy)
I wouldn't be surprised if this is the Cowboys' one and only appearance in the top-10 this year. They've played an uber-weak schedule so far (341 according to Pomeroy!), but that will change. They will see plenty of tough games in the upcoming conference schedule, starting with New Mexico this week. Wyoming is not especially impressive in any statistical category, but it is 14-2 on the season and has won 11 of its last 12 games. That is enough to earn them a spot at No. 8.

7. Southern Mississippi (15-2, 71 Pomeroy)
Another team that Ken Pomeroy's rankings are not crazy about, Southern Miss comes in at No. 7 mostly on the strength of its 11-game winning streak. The team is best in the Conference USA at the moment, and amidst a 2-0 week beat one of its top contenders, Tulane, on the road Jan. 7. If it wasn't obvious already, I'm impressed by road wins, especially in important games. For now, the Golden Eagles are hot, and they deserve a little recognition.

6. New Mexico (14-2, 23 Pomeroy)
Perhaps surprisingly, New Mexico is extremely high in Ken Pomeroy's rankings (coming a spot behind Wichita State) despite their horrific schedule strength. In the non-conference, the Lobos' opponents were good enough for 277th best, but their 15th best Adjusted-defense rating is going a long way. New Mexico also averages 17.3 assists-per-game, good for 10th in the country. Mid-majors that share the ball are always attractive to me, because they often don't have reliable 20-25 point scoring stars like some of the power-six teams. High assist numbers will generally mean the team is sound at moving the ball and therefore getting good looks--an indication that their success on offense stands a better chance of sustaining.

5. San Diego State (14-2, 74 Pomeroy)
I was a bit shocked to see the Aztecs had dropped 25 spots in Ken Pomeroy's ratings despite not losing a game, but then I saw their opponents last week. San Diego State beat up on the Hawks San Diego Christian (not a D-1 team) and then only managed to beat 0-16 Chicago State by eight points at home. (Chi-St. ranked 339 out of 345 by Pomeroy's numbers, meaning they might as well not be D-1 either). With an already pretty weak schedule, it is less surprising to see the steep decline in their computer ranking. The weak schedule, while it did not cause SDSU to drop, still hurt the team, as they were leapfrogged by the next team on the list. The Aztecs will have plenty of time to make it up, however, with a huge matchup with UNLV looming this weekend.

4. Saint Mary's (15-2, 24 Pomeroy)
"Gaels" becomes the first nickname to strike twice in the same week as Saint Mary's stayed strong this week and improved to 15-2 with a 2-0 performance. These Gaels have now won five in a row, and 13 of 14, with the one loss coming to still-undefeated Baylor. Not too shabby. They another team that shares the ball well, with 17.3 assists per game (ninth in the nation), and their Adjusted-offensive rating is 11th-best in Pomeroy's system. Saint Mary's jumped SDSU this week because their two wins (at San Diego and vs. San Francisco), while not especially impressive, are still significantly stronger than the two recorded by the Aztecs.

3. UNLV (16-2, 17 Pomeroy)
It gets boring from here on out in the poll if you've read before. None of last week's top-three did enough (or perhaps its better to say none of the three really did anything of note) to make any waves. In the next week, that should change. For now, however, Nevada Las-Vegas will have to stay content with being the highest-ranked Ken Pomeroy team to make the rankings. According to his ranking,, their AP poll rank, as well as UNLV's points, rebounds and assists-per-game averages, it is not a stretch to say they are the best mid-major team in the country. They'll have a chance to prove it this weekend, and the rest of the season against what looks to be a very tough Mountain West.

2. Creighton (14-2, 35 Pomeroy)
Creighton went 3-0 over the past week, even with a win over a pretty good Northern Iowa team. They've now won four in a row, and look like the class of the MVC with wins over the two teams that figure to be the Blue Jays' stiffest competition in the conference (Wichita and N. Iowa). They also are a top-10 scoring team in the country (81.9 ppg), second-best in assists 19.9 and top the nation in field goal percentage at the moment, shooting 51.1 percent from the field. With all that though, their four-game win streak is only one-fourth as long as the No. 1 team, meaning Creighton will have to live with No. 2 for another week.

1. Murray State (16-0, 31 Pomeroy)
Murray State beat Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay in the past week to improve to a perfect 16-0. Neither of those wins exactly jumps off the page at you, but the Racers earned their No. 1 spot by being undefeated and it's going to take more than wins over Northern Iowa or Cal-State Bakersfield in order to dethrone the Racers. The Racers' wins (and probably eventually losses) will continue to look weak by virtue of the conference they play in. Keep in mind that according to Pomeroy, they played the 105th-toughest non-conference schedule in the country. Of the teams in this week's poll, only UNLV (96th) and Iona (43rd) had tougher-rated non-conference schedules. And Murray State was the only team to run the table in that span. The Racers have earned every bit of this ranking.

1 comment:

  1. Nate,

    Keep up the good work. Glad to see a team from my conference, the MAAC, made it to the top 10 (er 11). You know it is always tough to win on the road in the MAAC - not really - but Iona is pretty good. Hmm. nobody from the A-10 (the second or third best mid-major conference in the land) in the top 10? Perhaps a little bias on your part? Are Akron or Cleveland State (beat Butler this week) getting any love?

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