Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Mid-Major Report: 1/3


It's been a little over three weeks since the last mid-major report, but not a whole lot of college basketball was played during that time. For that reason, I decided to wait so we could actually get an idea of which mid-majors have improved, which have dropped off and which have stayed strong. Check out the initial report from this year for an idea of how I come up with these rankings. First, a quick disclaimer. Despite playing well since the last poll, Wichita State has dropped out of the rankings. Unfortunately for the Shocker, they lost their most recent game against. Granted, it was against Creighton, one of the best mid-majors in the country, but they lost at home. Since I'm including conferences like the Mountain West (unbelievably good right now) in my poll, you have to stay hot to stay in. Other teams have earned the right more recently, so they passed Wichita State. Also, despite the lobbying from my readership, Iona will not be making the top 10 in this edition. The Gaels have played about as brutal a schedule as anyone in the country, including a run of eight(!) straight road games. Unfortunately, they lost a couple of those (which of course any team in the country would do during eight in a row). Know that they're on our radar, though. Right, on to the top 10.

10. Middle Tennessee (13-2, 58 in Ken Pomeroy team ratings)
The Blue Raiders make their first appearance in the poll on the strength of winning five in a row, and nine of ten. Neither of their losses this season are bad (a double-OT loss to Belmont, which they've since avenged, and an away loss to a not-bad UAB team). The Raiders have a below average schedule strength according to Pomeroy (not surprising), but have an above-average offense both in terms of points-per-game (75.2) and Pomeroy's Pythagorean offensive-rating. What pushes them over the top and into the poll this week is their impressive shooting. Middle Tennessee is shooting 51.2 percent from the field this year, good for second in the country. If they keep shooting like that, expect to see them around for the rest of the season.

9. Saint Louis (12-2, 14 Pomeroy)
The Billikens drop off a bit since our last ranking due to losing their last game. It wasn't a bad enough loss (to New Mexico, read further for more on them) to knock them out of the rankings altogether. The Billikens are still the best team in the A-10 at the moment, and are still filled with depth and experience. Ken Pomeroy's calculations love them for reasons I can't quite understand (his system is supposed to be predictive, so if you buy that, St. Louis would beat every other team on this list as well as UConn). As far as I'm concerned, in the one tough game (also the only road game) since the last poll, St. Louis failed. That's got to mean they drop.

8. Virginia Commonwealth (11-3, 39 Pomeroy)
Ram-Man will be happy to see VCU sneaking into the poll this time around. The Rams have not lost since a Nov. 27 setback at Alabama, a loss that dropped them to 3-3. Those eight games haven't been cake-city either, with wins over Richmond and now three straight road games included in the mix. Now the Rams have to prove themselves in the conference season. There are other very good teams in the CAA (Georgia State and George Mason), and if VCU is able to keep its run going, they will be here to stay.

7. New Mexico (12-2, 23 Pomeroy)
New Mexico becomes the third team to grace the list from being unranked last time on the strength of a 10-game winning streak. The only problem with that streak is that it hasn't come against the most impressive competition. The Lobos have played eight of 10 games at home, with road wins over USC (44-41...yikes) and New Mexico State. The good news for New Mexico? They stand to prove themselves in the coming weeks as Mountain West Conference play will begin. The bad news? That means things will get a whole lot tougher for New Mexico.

6. Saint Mary's (13-2, 15 Pomeroy)
While most teams took it easy over the holiday season, Saint Mary's put a whole lot of work in. Since the last report (which the Gaels just missed out on), Saint Mary's has gone 8-1, with a loss to Baylor at a neutral site being the lone blemish. Pretty impressive. And they still have dominant wins over Northern Iowa and BYU to show for their work so far. The Gaels will have to stay hot to stick around, because they won't have many tough games the rest of the way--just two against Gonzaga and one more at BYU. But given their recent play, that shouldn't be too difficult.

5. San Diego State (12-2, 49 Pomeroy)
Team No. 2 from the Mountain West is the Aztecs from SDSU. They drop back a spot from last week's poll despite not having lost a game in that stretch. Why, you ask? Because the Aztecs have only played three games since the last poll, against UC-Riverside, Elon and Redlands. All at home. That's about as week a three-game stretch as I could have imagined. Actually, it's probably worst than I could have come up with, because I didn't know Redlands existed. Still, SDSU has put together an impressive resume this season, which is amazing given what they've lost from last year.

4. Harvard (12-1, 34 Pomeroy)
The Crimson also drop a couple spots from the last time. Similar to San Diego State, they have only played four games since the last poll. Unlike SDSU, though, Harvard at least did something worthwhile, going 2-0 on the road against Boston U and Boston College. Still, the Ivy Leaguers have to drop because they were simply out-achieved by the next three teams on the list. If they keep winning, they will remain a top-five team. They've had an excellent year so far, and have one of the best defenses in the country. On Crimson!

3. UNLV (15-2, 20 Pomeroy)
The Rebels are this week's big movers as a result of a 5-0 record since the last poll, including a 16-point win over Illinois on a neutral court. They complete the Mountain West's ownership of this poll due to their 80.8 points-per-game (12th in the country), 18.8 assists per game (fourth) and 48.1 field-goal percentage (36th), and 54th strongest schedule in the country in Pomeroy's ratings. If they can keep it going strong during conference play, UNLV may be headed for a very special season.

2. Creighton (11-2, 36 Pomeroy)
The Blue-Jays relinquish the top spot despite a 4-1 record since the last poll due to a head-scratching loss to Missouri State at home (now making both of Creighton's losses confusing ones). That loss had the Blue Jays looking at a steeper drop in the rankings, but they turned things right back around with a big-time win at Wichita State. That was an important and impressive W for the Blue Jays to get. Not to mention they still have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 83.1 points-per-game with the eighth-best Adjusted-Offense score in Pomeroy's ratings.

1. Murray State (14-0, 31 Pomeroy)
This was really an easy pick. Take away all the ratings, per-game averages and star players. Scroll back through Nos. 10-2 and look at the loss column. You'll notice all of them have at least one. And aside from Harvard, all of them have at least two. Murray State has zero. Maybe they haven't played as tough a schedule as UNLV, but they've won 14 in a row, with five of them coming in true road games. And winning when you haven't lost yet gets tougher and tougher. I don't want to take out the excitement from reading these reports in the future, but unless something drastic happens, so long as Murray State keeps winning, they'll stay atop this list.

1 comment:

  1. Awesome job again Nate. Finding the picture of Ram Man was priceless. For the people who never had the fortune to see him live, they are missing one of the things that makes college basketball awesome.
    Looking for another team to watch - perhaps Missouri State or Indiana State from the MVC.

    ReplyDelete