Well, for starters, Xavier, Tu Holloway, and all the gangsters will be visiting. But hopefully you already knew that. What's going to happen in the game?
Last year when Xavier came to Dayton, partially because of the type of team Dayton had last year and partially due to that being the second game between the two teams, I hoped UD would beat XU just for the sake of having a win over them on the year. UD was 7-6 in the A-10 at the time and it was clear the team wasn't going anywhere. Beating Xavier would have just felt good and assuaged some of the pain of the season, kind of like scoring a garbage-time touchdown to avoid a shutout feels. That didn't happen (it would later in an Atlantic 10 Tournament game, which was sweet), but regardless, that is not the atmosphere this year. Aside from the rivalry between the schools, aside from the rivalry between these players (Chris Johnson will be playing his ninth game against Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease), this game is important because of where the two teams stand at the moment. Despite getting there in two different ways (The Flyers by surprising a bit, the Musketeers by having a disappointing stretch), each team sits at 13-5. They are sitting 1-2 in the Atlantic 10 (Xavier a 4-1, UD 3-1). Most importantly, due to Xaviers midseason struggles, both teams' NCAA Tournament chances are delicate, to say the least. In his most recent Bracketology, Joe Lunardi has four Atlantic 10 teams in the tournament (UD, Xavier, Saint Louis, Temple). All four are 10 or 11 seeds, meaning they are among the last to get in. So while this game is not going to be a win-and-you're-in type situation for either team, it would be a great help as far as positioning goes.
Last year, Dayton lost two five-point games to Xavier and won one by a point. There is no reason to expect that this game will not also be close, but then again, there is no reason to expect anything from this game. Dayton is a completely different team than it was last year, in terms of who its coach is, who its starting five is and the style of basketball it plays. Whereas the Brian Gregory-era Flyers made their mark on playing defense, grabbing rebounds and dunking in transition, this year's Dayton team relies a lot more on shooting well and scoring points. They are not nearly as good on defense. Xavier still relies on Holloway and Mark Lyons to do pretty much everything for them, with other guys taking advantage of their guards' excellent play.
So what's going to happen in this game? A very interesting set of matchups. In last year's matchup, Dayton fans felt they finally had a set of guards good enough to compete with Holloway and Lyons with Juwan Staten, Josh Parker and Paul Williams. That wasn't the case. Holloway especially was still the dominant player in those games in crunch time. This year, Dayton fans feel like they've got another point guard to contend with Holloway. This year, I am among that group. Kevin Dillard has been very good this season, and would definitely appear to be capable of going step-for-step with Holloway. Dillard has had his best games in important ones, and this game qualifies. In addition, Dillard has made the other guards on this team better. Even Josh Parker, who I have disliked as a player since he came to UD, has been much improved this season, especially against Saint Bonaventure, when even in a loss, he kept UD in the game by making good basketball plays, not just having a good shooting night.
What really interests me for this game though is the Kenny Frease-Matt Kavanaugh matchup. In years past Xavier games made Kav's eyes light up because it meant he might get some playing time against the equally inept and slow Frease. This year, though, it's no secret that Kavanaugh has made a giant leap from close-your-eyes-when-he-gets-the-ball to quite serviceable. I have the insane thought that this may be a matchup Kavanaugh can win on the interior.
Beyond that, Dayton has the best forward on either team in Chris Johnson. While he may still be a bit limited from suffering a head injury, CJ has also typically had a knack for strong play in big games.
What's going to happen in this game, though? Well, considering every game I've been able to attend or watch on TV (Miami, Buffalo, Murray State, Seton Hall, St. Bonaventure--seriously, those are the only five I've caught in their entirety. I saw the last five minutes of the Minnesota game, but that was well in-hand) has resulted in a loss, and I'm going to be able to watch the game on TV this Saturday, it will probably be a loss.
I sure hope I'm wrong.
No comments:
Post a Comment