NFL Divisional Playoffs. Wheeling, dealing and concealing

After last week's 2-0 in the NFL playoffs, including just about nailing the Saints-Lions score, I'm feeling good. So I'm probably due for a 1-3 spot this weekend, but here come some picks anyway...

Saints at 49ers
Bill Barnwell of Grantland.com made a pretty strong case as to why this game is going to be closer than many people think, and he even picked San Francisco to come out on top in the game. But as convincing as the numbers Barnwell displayed are, I'm not buying into them. The 49ers are going to be relying on Alex Smith to win them this game. Alex Smith, with no postseason experience, who until this year had been bad (and then was merely serviceable in 2011). Nah, I'll go with Drew Brees, despite him and the Saints offense being significantly worse on the road than at home. I know, I know, the Saints blew it last year against the Seahawks in a similar situation: favored team on the road. But this Saints group is rolling way better than last year's.
Saints 30-49ers 17

Broncos at Patriots
Last week even though I didn't write about it, I picked the Steelers to beat the Broncos, because I figured their defense was good enough to hold the Broncos under 10 points, and even their depleted offense would be good enough to score in double digits. Obviously, most of that was incorrect. The Broncos turned out to have an excellent offensive game plan, the Steelers defense was porous, and they couldn't overcome their injuries. This week, though, it is the Broncos who are missing more players, against a team that has already beaten them 41-23. Neither Brian Dawkins nor Eric Decker will be playing Saturday night for the Broncos, which means Denver will be without one of its key players on both sides of the ball. Add that to the fact that this is being played in Foxborough, where the Patriots seldom lose, in what will be cold weather, and it's just too tough to make the call that the Broncos will do it again.
Patriots 35-Broncos 17

Texans at Ravens
A month and a half ago I wrote the Ravens were my end-of-season Super Bowl pick, because when they play in important games and play hard, they are dominant. And while we still haven't seen the Ravens go up against one of the NFL's great offenses from this year, there's no reason to back off them this week. Everyone in Baltimore is healthy, and they'll be playing against a team in Houston that is anything but healthy. Andre Johnson still isn't 100 percent, Mario Williams is gone and, oh yeah, TJ Yates is their starting quarterback. This one seems too good to be true.
Ravens 31-Texans 14

Giants at Packers
And now for the game I want to write nothing about, because I feel like no matter how I write it, I will be jinxing/correctly dooming the Packers into a loss. When I think about this game, I'm terrified. Not because this game is shaping up to be a repeat of 2007 for the Giants (play the best team late the in regular season, barely lose, tear it up after that point, meet the Packers in the playoffs, beat them in 2007). Really, I'm terrified because one's favorite team can always go out in the blink of an eye in the NFL playoffs. There is no series to come back in. And any team can put together a solid performance. But really, the Packers should win this game. Greg Jennings is back, the other receivers were excellent in his absence, and I think James Starks and Ryan Grant are primed to deliver 40-ish rushing yards apiece, which is plenty to ensure that the Packers' offense is having a good day.
Packers 34-Giants 21