Monday, January 23, 2012

Mid-Major Report: 1/23


We're back on track with a Monday edition of the Mid-Major Report. There has been plenty of activity in the polls since last week's edition, and as conference play has kicked in and more teams have played tough home and road games, shakeups have continued. As always, refer to the first report of the season for information on how these rankings are determined.

After last week's edition, I received a request to list the teams that fell out of the rankings because it was difficult to keep track of which teams had lost their spots to newcomers. Well, ask and you shall receive. I'll add a quick blurb before the rankings start listing the teams that are just on the outside looking in, and the teams that dropped out and why. Without further ado, here they are.

Dropped Out: New Mexico (0-2 on the week, losses to UNLV and SDSU), BYU (14-point loss at home to Loyola Marymount)
Outside looking in: Dayton, Weber State, Nevada, George Mason, Southern Miss, Central Florida


10. Iona (15-4, 56th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings)
The Gaels of Iona are back in the 10th position after a week's hiatus. They hiccuped in a MAAC game against Manhattan (losing 75-72), but rebounded with 11 and 20-point home wins this week. The reason for the Gaels beating out other contenders for the final spot was due to their still-impressive offensive numbers. The Gaels are second in the country in scoring, first in assists per game, and fourth in field goal percentage. That allowed the Gaels to beat out Dayton, which only played one game last week.

9. Harvard (16-2, 38 Pomeroy)
Harvard makes its long-awaited return to the rankings as well this week. The Crimson has been hovering just outside the top 10 ever since its Jan. 3 loss at Fordham. After four straight wins however, Harvard is back. Harvard is among the country's best defensive teams, ranked 22nd in Adjusted defense on kenpom.com. The team also has an early season win over Florida State that is looking better and better as the Seminoles have beaten North Carolina and Duke in ACC play. While winning the Ivy League seems almost like an afterthought at the moment, if it weren't to happen because Yale or Penn got hot and went on a run, Harvard looks like it has an outside shot at an at-large bid.

8. Oral Roberts (16-4, 65 Pomeroy)
What's not to like about the Golden Eagles this season? With a nice win over Oakland last week, Oral Roberts extended its winning streak to 11 games. Three of the team's four losses are at West Virginia, at Oklahoma and at Gonzaga. They shoot the ball almost 48 percent from the field as a team, and have the 24th best adjusted offense in the country. The Summit League may not be especially tough, but a 10-0 mark in the league is never a number to sneer at. What's more, the Golden Eagles have already beaten the second place team (South Dakota State, 8-1 in the league) in their first matchup this year. This team is for real.

7. Middle Tennessee (19-2, 30 Pomeroy)
With double-digit wins against Arkansas State and at South Alabama, the train just kept on rolling at Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have now won 11 in a row, and are 8-0 in the Sun Belt conference. Perhaps most impressively, their games last week were good enough to jump 13 spots in the team rankings at kenpom.com from the last Mid-Major report. If the 13 spots were from 250 to 237, it wouldn't be as noteworthy. But 43 to 30? That suggests this team is well worth giving a look. Middle Tennessee is a team worth rooting for the rest of the year, because in a weak year for the Sun Belt conference (only four teams over .500 on the season), it will almost certainly be a one-bid conference. If that team isn't Middle Tennessee, it would be a shame.

6. UNLV (18-3, 17 Pomeroy)
The toughest decision made in these rankings was between the No. 6 and 5 teams for the week. UNLV and Wichita State are sporting extremely similar numbers for the year. Ultimately, UNLV lost out due to a more recent loss (even though it was to San Diego State). Still, sixth right now is nothing to be ashamed of. the Rebels are still sporting one of the top offenses in the country (81.5 points per game, 18.7 assists per game, ninth best adjusted offense) and secured the biggest win of the weak among all our contenders for the Mid-Major report. With a 17-point win over Mountain West contender New Mexico (in which UNLV was in control most of the game), UNLV let us all know that their non-conference performance was no fluke, and they'll be looking for vengeance when SDSU comes to town later in the year.

5. Wichita State (17-3, 9 Pomeroy)
Wichita delivered two more wins (at Northern Iowa, and a 43-point thrashing of Southern Illinois at home) and has now won seven in a row, with its lone conference blemish coming at the hands of Creighton. They have some extremely impressive numbers on kenpom.com, beyond the ninth team-ranking (which was largely helped this week by the 43-point win). The Shockers are 13th best in both adjusted offense and defense, are top-40 in points per game, rebounds per game and field goal percentage, and have a decent strength of schedule at 76th. Unless they fall apart, they would appear to be headed toward an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. And with continued strong play and a possible win at Creighton Feb. 11, they could be looking at a Missouri Valley Conference title.

4. Saint Mary's (19-2, 25 Pomeroy)
It was a relatively easy weak of games for Saint Mary's (versus Pepperdine and at Santa Clara), but the Gaels took care of business as they've been doing all year and have now won nine in a row. Saint Mary's is 8-0 in the West Coast Conference this year, no easy feat. The Gaels are top-35 in points and assists per game and shoot 48 percent from the field. Upcoming is a tough game at BYU, a team that would figure to be hungry after a disappointing loss to Loyola Marymount.

3. Creighton (18-2, 27 Pomeroy)
A change near the top! If you've been a follower of this blog, you'll know that No. 3 is Creighton's lowest ranking so far. And while last week the Blue Jays went 2-0 and avenged their lone Missouri Valley loss of the season (a 77-65 loss to Missouri State, avenged 66-65 at Missouri State), they dropped another spot due to the significant recent achievements of the No. 2 team. No reason to fret for Blue Jays fans, though. Creighton is still top-10 in points per game, assists per game and field goal percentage, and is still in the driver's seat to win the MVC regular season.

2. San Diego State (17-2, 55 Pomeroy)'
The team rankings at kenpom.com have received a great deal of flack this year for rating Wisconsin in the top-five almost all year, even when the Badgers lost three out of four games. Pomeroy addressed the situation saying he was frustrated by it, but that the Badgers represented an outlier whose results have managed to "beat" his system this season. I believe that, which is why I still use his rankings and information in this blog and for these reports. However, I would submit San Diego State as another team that has unfortunately "beaten" (or perhaps more accurately, fallen victim to) Pomeroy's rating system. At 17-2 and 3-0 in the Mountain West with wins over UNLV and at New Mexico, I don't think there is any debate that SDSU is better than the 55th-best team in the country. The Aztecs have been the most impressive of any team on this list in the past two weeks, notching the biggest wins of any team in consecutive weeks. Their numbers still don't jump off the page at you (66th in points per game, 44th in rebounding), but that's exactly why we can't be a slave to those sort of things. For now, the Aztecs are a dominant mid-major team, numbers or not.

1. Murray State (20-0, 42 Pomeroy)
The Racers won two more road games last week, at Morehead State and at SIU-Edwardsville. Both of those teams are bad, but Murray took care of business, as it has done all year long. Now the last unbeaten team in all of college basketball, Murray State did last week what Syracuse couldn't: win on the road. And while Notre Dame is always pretty good at home, Morehead State is always going to be a tough rivarly game for the Racers (They have been the best two teams in the OVC since seemingly forever, although not this year). And for that, the Racers deserve some respect. Here, they'll get it.

1 comment:

  1. Okay Nate,
    I cannot really argue with the rankings. Looks like you have it pretty well nailed. And the addition of the "dropped out" and "outside looking in" are really top notch. Huge game for Middle Tenn. State at Vanderbilt this weekend. You know who I will be rooting for. And I am still going to push for Long Beach State. And Drexel is starting to come on in the CAA.

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