Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Mid-Major Report: 1/17


Happy belated MLK day, and in honor of Dr. King, how about a mid-major report after a big day of college basketball took place on the holiday. As always, refer to the first report of the season to get an idea of how I come up with my rankings.

This week features even more of a shakeup from last week's rankings. While the top has remained the same, by virtue of some team's in the top 10 playing each other and others having to play rough games on the road or just tough conference games in general, we had more teams drop out, and a couple new faces. Right, on to the show.

10. Oral Roberts (16-4, 58th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Congrats to the Golden Eagles for making the cut for the first time, as a nine-game winning streak has vaulted them into the 10th spot. Oral Roberts' numbers won't wow you (93rd in scoring, 95th in assists, 40th in field-goal percentage), but their adjusted offensive numbers at kenpom.com are 23rd best in the country, and they have done a ton of work on the road. After losing two of four earlier in the season (at Oklahoma and Gonzaga), Roberts hasn't lost, drubbing (shorthanded) Xavier in Cincy, and reeling off seven straight conference wins, five of which came on the road. Sure, Summit League competition isn't the best, but Oral Roberts has still put together quite a resume recently.

9. Brigham Young (15-4, 20 Pomeroy)
BYU returns to the rankings in glorious fashion, and primed to move up the list as it hits the easier part of its schedule. The Cougars have suffered four losses on the season, three of which were to Wisconsin, Baylor and Saint Mary's. Not too shabby. The problem? BYU hasn't put together a win-streak of more than four games. Sitting a four-gamer right now, the Cougars are primed to make a move without another key game coming for another 11 days. Then, they'll have a key rematch with Saint Mary's. It is worth noting that the Cougars are 11th in points per game, 14th in rebounds, 3rd in assists and 15th in field goal percentage. They are also extremely high in Pomeroy's rating system, mostly due to the fact that 14 of their 15 wins have been by more than 10 points.

8. Middle Tennessee (17-2, 43 Pomeroy)
Another week, another two wins for the Blue Raiders, who now haven't lost since December 7. With two road wins by double-digit margins, the Raiders even impressed Pomeroy's system, vaulting 14 spots from their positioning at the time of last week's ranking. Even more important though, they have stayed strong enough to vault up two spots in my mid-major report, finally vacating that 10th position. Unfortunately, it won't get any easier to stick around in these rankings, where losses can be hugely detrimental (just ask Iona, Wyoming and Southern Miss). Any loss in the Sun Belt would put the Raiders in a precarious position. Luckily, they have a chance to really prove themselves coming up, with a game at Vanderbilt Jan. 28. The Commodores have disappointed this season (as always) and might be bad enough for a Blue Raiders upset. If that happens, could Middle Tennessee be looking at an outside shot for an at-large bid. Accompanied with continued consistency in the Sun Belt, and I'd say yes.

7. UNLV (16-3, 19 Pomeroy)
Remember those teams who you should ask about losing being detrimental in this poll? Add UNLV to the list. The Rebels drop four spots this week, despite losing by just two points at San Diego State. That's probably a game they shouldn't be expected to win. But still, the loss is worse than what any of the top six for this week suffered. The Rebels are undoubtedly one of the finer mid-major teams in the country, and as the brutal Mountain West schedule plays out, I'm confident (as I'm sure Ken Pomeroy would be, with his system rating them 19th) that they will show that. They are still one of the top teams in the country in terms of scoring per game and Adjusted Offense. When the two match up well, that means a team is pretty damn good on offense. In all likelihood, they'll be back in the top five before long.

6. Wichita State (15-3, 15 Pomeroy)
Once again, the Shockers are Ken Pomeroy's most-loved team on the list. Their rating of 15 is shockingly high, aided this week by a 37-point destruction of Missouri Valley Conference bottom-dweller Bradley. Still, it can't be overlooked that Wichita State is top-25 in the country in terms of Adjusted offense and defense. A team that good on both sides of the ball is going to be worth paying some attention. Coming up tomorrow is a key game (for both teams) at Northern Iowa. If the Shockers intend to compete for a MVC title or for a spot in this poll, it's the type of game they'll have to be able to win.

5. New Mexico (15-2, 18 Pomeroy)
I've been somewhat hesitant to take the Lobos seriously. They typically field a strong team, but this year their strength of schedule (278th non-conference) was hard to ignore. But now New Mexico has won 13 in a row; its last loss was Nov. 24. That is pretty ridiculous. And with it's most recent win coming at a 14-3 Wyoming team, it's time to believe New Mexico is the real deal. Unfortunately for the Lobos, in the words of Tallahassee, it's time to nut up or shut up. Next week features games versus San Diego State and at UNLV. Yikes. New Mexico's scheduling in the Mountain West this year turned out to be brutal. They play Wyoming, SDSU and UNLV (the other top three teams in the conference) in three consecutive games twice. The good news, though? Next week, we'll know for sure what the Lobos are all about.

4. Saint Mary's (17-2, 22 Pomeroy)
It seemed unfair to leave Saint Mary's stuck in the fourth slot after two more wins, including a destruction of Gonzaga at home. But that is where the Gaels will stay for now, because everybody above them was pretty good as well. The Gaels' adjusted offense is rated 10th best in the country, and they score just below 77 points a game. They are also still one of the top teams for sharing the ball, averaging 17.5 assists per game, good for seventh. Meanwhile, point guard Matthew Dellavedova has stepped up his offensive game significantly. Previously more of a distributor and deferrer-to-teammates (new term), Dellavedova had a four-game stretch of scoring 16 or more points, including 27 against San Francisco and 26 against Gonzaga. If that kind of production keeps up, the Gaels are on another level of scary.

3. San Diego State (15-2, 69 Pomeroy)
As the third team in this poll, San Diego State's 69th rating at kenpom jumps out at you immediately. That is mostly due to weaker competition and close results in games. But winning is winning, and that's exactly what SDSU did against UNLV in the biggest game it's had this year. The Aztecs, who haven't lost since Nov. 30, have enjoyed most of their recent success at home. We'll see if their average offensive and defense numbers will hold up on the road soon enough, though, as SDSU plays three of its next four on the road, including at New Mexico and at Wyoming.

2. Creighton (16-2, 32 Pomeroy)
And now you know the next two. There isn't a whole lot to say about the Blue Jays that will sound different. They won two more games last week, at Illinois State (decent) and against Southern Illinois (not very good). They've now won six in a row. They are rated sixth in both points-per-game (82.7) and adjusted offense. They are second in the nation in assists and still first in the nation in field goal percentage. They also have one of the best players in the country on their roster.

1. Murray State (18-0, 38 Pomeroy)
Similar to Creighton, there isn't much new to report about the Racers. They dropped slightly from last week's Pomeroy positioning, due to relatively close games at home against some pretty weak competition. For now, however, that doesn't matter. The Racers are 18-0, and they're showing no signs of backing down. They still have well-above-average offensive and defensive numbers. With two road games next week, perhaps the Racers will get tested. But so far, so good.

1 comment:

  1. Nate,

    Good report. I have a suggestion (as always). How about including a note about the teams that dropped out? Sometimes it is hard to remember who dropped out and why.
    So the Summitt league is good enough to get a team in but not the A10? Wow. Good for ORU. I believe they are coached by Scott Sutton - another of the sones of Eddie.

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