Why not to worry about Kevin Dillard

Game one for UD went mostly the way game ones go: "Team UD should beat" hangs around for longer than the fans feel like they should, Dayton eventually pulls away in the late first/early second half, loses a significant part of its comfortable margin midway through the second half, and then rights the ship to win by 10ish.

For the most part, yesterday's game against Arkansas State followed the blueprint, the one notable exception being that Arkansas State only came within nine in the second half, where usually those leads drop to two or three. So overall, from a listener's perspective (believe it or not, UD-Ark St. was not on TV in Colorado), it was a pretty successful game.

Most players contributed positively to the winning effort. Even if it was a small presence, like Alex Gavrilovic or Devon Scott (again, from what I could hear), they did good stuff for the team. None of the new guys or returning players had a classic Paul Williams disappearance-type performance. You know what I'm talking about: it goes something like 0-2 shooting, zero points, one rebound, zero assists, three turnovers and 10-12 screams from the crowd to "DO SOMETHING!"

The one thing Tom Michaels and Bucky Bockhorn  kept harping on was Kevin Dillard's off day. And in the first half, I don't think there's any doubt they were right. UD's best player did not play well. From a whole game standpoint, he did not play as well as expected, and my mom (at the game) said he just made several similar bad plays. For UD fans expecting Dillard to be an A-10 Player of the Year-caliber player, it was probably a bit disconcerting to watch.

Here's the thing though: Dillard's final line was 3-13, 12 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds, 5 turnovers. Yeah, not a great game. But a double-double and then six rebounds from your point guard? From a raw numbers standpoint, that's a strong game. Dillard could easily go 4-6 shooting and put up the same numbers. Knock the turnover numbers down to three let's say, and all of a sudden we're talking about his phenomenal ability to manage the game, his excellent efficiency, etc.

If this is what the Flyers are going to get from Dillard on bad days, there is reason for rejoicing, not bemoaning one game. That means UD has its best player since Brian Roberts, who always found a way to get his, even when the shots weren't falling the way they normally do.

Plus, as mentioned earlier, the other guys stepped up and played well. Vee Sanford had 18 and 7-10 from the field. Josh Benson was 7-9, hit multiple long jumpers (!) and grabbed eight boards. Dillard will be called upon to carry the Flyers to a win more or less on his own in at least a few games this season. But it's encouraging to know when he's a bit off, Dayton isn't necessarily going down.

Evaluating the Final Four games on anything but basketball

For the first time since I can't remember, I won't be able to watch the Final Four games tonight. Yes, devastation. Luckily, there is a way of figuring out which teams will meet in the Championship game without even catching a whiff of basketball.

Kentucky vs. Louisville
Mascot
Kentucky's mascot is among the most generic in all of sports, right alongside bulldog; that being said, Louisville's mascot is the Cardinal. The Cardinal is a non-predatory bird, and while it looks cool and is the state bird of Ohio, that's about all it has going. Sorry, Cardy, the Wildcat takes round one.

Roster names
Pretty easy call on this one. Junior guard Twany Beckham aside, UK's roster is a veritable who's-who of average basketball player names. Darius Miller. Terence Jones. Anthony Davis. Sam Malone. Coach Cal is an unbelievable recruiter, but he's got to work on getting his name-game up. On the other hand, Louisville has two guys with the last name Smith on its roster and still manages to be more exciting. Whether its freshman Angel Nunez (anybody named Angel is automatically getting my attention) who doesn't play at all or sophomore Gorgui Dieng (same goes for anybody named Gorgui--or Dieng, for that matter) who starts for the Cardinals, Louisville has cool names on lockdown. The 'Ville has some guy named Stephan Van Treese on its roster. That dude sounds like he should be the son of a Duke, but is disappointingly just from Indianapolis. Still, his name's getting the job done. Even one of Louisville's more boring names, Kyle Kuric, rolls off the tongue nicely due to its alliteration. Cards even things up.

Most Interesting Man test
This test is inspired by the Dos Equis commercials featuring the "Most Interesting Man in the World". Which team has a guy who might speak French in Russian? Or maybe he could have inside jokes with total strangers? Basically, who would I want to hang out with most? And the answer to this one goes to the the resident winner of the name game as well--Gorgui Dieng. While in Louisville last weekend I spent time hanging out with a guy from Tanzania who was friends with the people I was visiting. He was funny, always in a good mood and ready to mix it up with whoever, and told some absolutely fascinating stories. Gorgui may not party quite as hardy as anybody in Lexington, but I'm thinking he'd be way more interesting to listen to between the weekends, telling me stories about his time in Senegal and what he thinks of the States. That definitely sounds better than talking to Anthony Davis about how crazy it was at this one AAU Tournament he played at when he was 15. Edge, Louisville.

Most Interesting Coach test
Same as before, but with the men running the benches for both teams. Unfortunately, I know very little nothing about either team's coaches beyond the leading men, so there are only two candidates I could choose from in this one. And that seems like a pretty easy call. Coach Cal may be deplorable, but is there any doubt he'd be a fun to hang with? It is clear as day from interviews that his players like him, and he's doing something right in order to fill his roster with future NBA-ers year after year. I'm guessing it's got to do with that personality. Coach Pitino on the other hand? Larger than life guy, for sure. Ultra-successful college coach, yes. But he still strikes me as very meh. The only thing I'd want to talk about is what a conversation Ricky probably wouldn't be keen on having.

Who is more worth rooting for?
Well, neither team. It's Kentucky and Louisville. The only way to make this worse would be to replace one of the teams with North Carolina and bring Tyler Hansbrough back to the Tar Heels' roster. But Louisville has several seniors and guys who aren't going to be making money playing professional basketball in the U.S., and other guys who might make the money, but still won't be playing. Set aside the fact that Kentucky is a farm team for the pros and how much that sucks in general. Most of the guys playing on that team will have plenty more shots on glory when they are in the pros. This is just a stop for them. No matter how much they really care about this Championship and no matter what happens over the next three days, the future is bright for them. For Kyle Kuric and Peyton Siva? The future (as far as basketball is concerned) is the next three days. So this has to the to the Cardinals.

For anybody not able to keep track, Louisville pulled off the upset, 3-2. Despite all the indications, opinions and talent to the contrary, here is some hard evidence that the Cardinals have a chance. And hey, even if Louisville does get thrashed tonight, at least Gorgui Dieng will have given it some pride: MVP of this column.

Ohio State vs. Kansas
Mascot
If there is a mascot that Ohio State would actually beat, it is escaping me. Seriously, Ohio State are the Buckeyes. And not even the tree. The seed on the tree that peanut buttery snacks are modeled after. Even if it was the tree, the Buckeye is not an especially impressive angiosperm. Were they the Ohio State Redwoods, then maybe we're talking. But Buckeye? Let alone the fact that Kansas' mascot is a mythical bird. This is not close. Point KU.

Roster names
Mostly boring on both sides. All of Kansas' cool is coming from guys that don't see the floor: Naadir Tharpe, Niko Roberts, Merv Lindsay (Merv!). The Jayhawks do have two guards with decent names in Tyshawn Taylor (once again, on the strength of alliteration) and Elijah Johnson (on the strength of Elijah), but KU has clearly left this one wide open. Ohio State doesn't have much to shout about in the category either, however. It is always a good thing to have a Weatherspoon on the roster, and J.D. Weatherspoon proudly sports the scarlet and grey from the sidelines. So Ohio State has that going for it, which is nice. Throw in LaQuinton Ross and Evan Ravenel, and the name game is going down to the wire. The way I see it, it comes down to Merv Lindsay and Evan Ravenel. And while Merv has the advantage of having a fake first name for a first name and a real first name for a last name, I think only Gorgui Dieng has a shot at beating Evan Ravenel for full-name glory. Kudos to Ravvy's parents for having the guts to name him Evan. That could have gone south quickly with so many e's, a's and v's in such a short span of syllables. But it hasn't. Point Buckeyes.

Most Interesting Man test
Thomas Robinson is an incredible player with an incredible story. He has put his younger sister before himself at all times, and should be commended for that. But in spite of that and in spite of my disdain for him, I don't think there's any choice other than Jared Sullinger for Most Interesting Man in this game. Sully's larger-than-life personality has been on display since his freshman year. It reached a nationwide audience when we saw him singing "Party in the USA" on ESPN, but it is there for all to see in the middle of games as well. Sullinger puts his tongue out and cheers and nods when good things are happening for his team. But this year, the other side of Sullinger was seen much more frequently. He was pouting when things weren't going well. He quit on his team because he allowed things he couldn't control get the better of him a couple times. Right now, however, Sullinger appears to have his swag back in full force. And even though he annoys me to watch on TV, I have no doubt he'd be a blast to be around in person. Buckeyes, 2-1.

Most Interesting Coach test
Thad Matta's name is Thad Matta, and that is awesome. Thad also is kinda cool because he's not like any of the other mega-successful coaches of big programs in the country--Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Bo Ryan, John Calipari, Billy Donovan, Jim Boeheim, etc. All those guys are totally composed in their interviews. Thad doesn't have that polished feel about him. He seems much more genuine in his comments because of that. That being said, he coached at Xavier, which pretty much ends this argument. Bill Self is another one of those boring, polished automatons, but he hasn't been at Xavier. Sorry for that Ocean's 12-esque, buildup and anti-climax, but I needed to write something. Edge, Kansas.

Who is more worth rooting for?
The T-Rob story speaks for itself. That guy is pretty well worth rooting for, as are the other veterans on his team, but Ohio State has some worthiness of its own. The Buckeyes are coming off a year in which they were far and away the best team in the country, but suffered in the Elite Eight due to a poor shooting game. What's more, that loss came at the hands of a freshman-laden Kentucky team. This year's UK team is totally different, but I would imagine the leftover Buckeyes would still love a shot at returning the favor. Jared Sullinger has said he came back this year because of the sting of last year. Whether or not you like Sully (and I don't), that's what college basketball is all about. And Kansas' last national championship came in 2007, while OSU hasn't cut down the Nets since 1960. I'd say that means point, Bucks.

Finaly tally comes to Ohio State 3, Kansas 2. The scientific approach delivered by Ken Pomeroy says it will be Kentucky-Ohio State. The non-scientific but educated consensus from the ESPN pundits says we're getting Kentucky-Kansas. And this non-scientific and not-educated is pimping a Louisville-Ohio State final two. I guess that adds up to a fun night of basketball.

Why Kentucky-Louisville can do nothing but harm

Over the weekend I visited some friends in Louisville, and it was my first time staying more than a day in the great state of Kentucky. On Friday night, we headed out to a bar and caught the end of the North Carolina-Ohio Sweet 16 game, which was almost the coolest thing ever. Really, though, we were heading out to catch the Kentucky-Indiana game, a game that I didn't particularly care about, and my friends sort of cared about because now they live in Kentucky. We got to Molly Malone's and it took all of about four seconds to realize that we were not going to be sitting down at any point to watch the game there. But that was fine, as I've been to a Dayton-Xavier game in a Dayton bar, and if you don't arrive early enough, you'll be standing all game long as well.

That was where the similarities and familiarities about watching basketball stopped. What followed was unlike anything I've seen before. Every possession, whether it was a turnover, missed shot, made shot, three-pointer, dunk or timeout, was met with a groan or a cheer. When Cody Zeller scored, the bar groaned. When Cody Zeller missed a shot and it was rebounded by Kentucky, the entire bar erupted. If Christian Watford missed a shot and IU grabbed an offensive rebound, a collective groan was guaranteed. When Anthony Davis scored, a bar-wide cheer was assured. Even if a timeout was forced or called after a loose ball, the crowd at Molly Malone's went berserk one way or another. It was unbelievable. So many things that really didn't matter in the grand scheme of the game were met with despair or joy. Hundreds and hundreds of times over, this process continued.

I'm a huge basketball fan. I would say I care about my teams as much as anybody else I've met. But it wasn't even close the amount these people seemed to have invested in their Wildcats. At least in the city of Louisville, the same seemed to go for the Cardinals. This is why I'm concerned about the loss of life possibilities that could result from Louisville and Kentucky's Final Four matchup this weekend. I don't actually see how violence can be avoided. We've all heard about the Dodgers fan being beaten into a coma and two San Francisco 49ers fans being shot after a 49ers-Raiders game. Well, from what I could tell this weekend, the people in Kentucky are at least as insane as the nutjobs involved in those incidents. And this is a Final Four game, compared to a regular season and a preseason game (as in, it's a little bit more important).

Whatever the result of the game, while I had fun in Louisville over the weekend, I'm thinking I'll be glad not to be back in the coming one.

Sweet 16 Friday Primer

While yesterday's picks for the games resulted in just s 2-2 performance (Syracuse and Ohio State being the ones I got correct), I will also pat myself on the back for correctly prescribing the formula for Louisville to win. The Cardinals got their defense on and played a game in the 50s (in Michigan State's case, the 40s), and turned in an impressive win. Kudos to Florida for totally proving me wrong. Billy Donovan's crew dominated Marquette in the second half, outplaying and out-hustling them. Some better shooting from Marquette would have made that game closer down the stretch, but I don't think the result would have been different. Florida was the better team Thursday night. And in a best of one series, sometimes being on your game on a given night is what matters most.

Xavier vs. Baylor, 7:15 p.m.
On paper this looks like an easy win for Baylor. Baylor is the superior team physically and is still waiting on a good game in the tournament from its best player, Perry Jones III. But you can never really count Xavier out, can you? Four Sweet 16s in the past five years. It makes me sick to hear about it, because this year Xavier shouldn't have even been in the tournament. A Matt Kavanaugh layup would have done the trick. But Xavier survived that game, and then survived Notre Dame and beat Lehigh. I do not like giving praise to the Musketeers, but somehow, they get into this type of situation year after year. And Baylor is a soft, vulnerable team. Xavier may not be likable, but they are definitely not soft. Gangsta and "zippin' 'em up" jokes aside, this is a tough team. And they have a guy who lives for the moment in Holloway. If the Bears come out the least bit lackadaisical, you can bet that Xavier will jump all over them, and that could all there is to this game. One would hope, however, that a team of college basketball players can find motivation to play hard in a Sweet 16 game, regardless of its opponent. I think Baylor does that, and we're finally done with Holloway in college basketball.

Ohio vs. North Carolina, 7:47 p.m.
In any given year of college basketball, if Ohio University were playing North Carolina in one of the early season tournaments held at a neutral site, like the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, most everyone would look at the names of the teams, think, "that's going to be a blowout," and probably not watch the game. Just because this is a Sweet 16 game does not mean it should be approached any differently. To get here Ohio has done some great things, and its game against South Florida in the third round was an extremely fun one to watch, but this is North Carolina. Kendall Marshall or not, they are superior to the Bobcats in every way. They can put out a front line of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, James Michael McAdoo and Harrison Barnes. How exactly is OU going to compete with that? They aren't. It's been a great ride for OU, but don't feel bad if you end up changing the channel or starting your Friday night pregame early in lieu of finishing this game.

Indiana vs. Kentucky, 9:45 p.m.
If the three games listed so far go the right way, March 23, 2012 will be the greatest NCAA Tournament night of my life in which a team I was rooting for didn't win the National Championship. Unfortunately, it is much more likely that Kentucky, North Carolina and Xavier will all win than it is that they will all lose. Of course, the pundits have reminded us a couple hundred thousand times that Indiana is responsible for Kentucky's sole loss this season. So sure, perhaps that will give IU some confidence heading into the game. But let's dissect how likely a repeat is for the Hoosiers. First off, that game was a home game for Indiana. This will be played on a neutral court. For anyone who will be watching his/her first basketball game tonight, that makes more than a small difference. In addition, it was a game in which Indiana possessed a hefty lead, but saw it vanish in no time when Kentucky flexed its muscle in the second half. And finally, it took a buzzer-beater from beyond the arc to secure the victory. Basically, it was the type of thing that only happens a couple times a season for a team, and it was only able to happen because Indiana had played a great game in its home gym on that day. To me, this has 15-20 point UK win written all over it. Then again, there hasn't been a single buzzer-beater all tournament long, so maybe...

North Carolina State vs. Kansas, 10:17 p.m.
This looks like the most intriguing matchup of the night. NC State has been playing excellent basketball, mainly through its big men, since the ACC Tournament. If not for a missed call on an offensive foul, the Wolfpack would have played for the ACC title, and had a great shot at beating Florida State. Since then, they've been dominant in the NCAA Tournament. They dispatched a very good San Diego State easily by executing a good game plan to perfection. But that was by exploiting a size advantage against the Aztecs. In the third round, NC State proved the win was no fluke by beating Georgetown and Henry Sims, a pretty good big man in his own right. Now, things only get tougher. The NC State front line will have to deal with Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey of Kansas, perhaps the best duo in the country (Zeller and Henson from UNC would be the other option). Kansas is coming off a lackluster performance against Purdue, but the Jayhawks survived Robbie Hummel's last stand. If Tyshawn Taylor and Robinson can get back on track and deliver typically strong games in the Sweet 16, my gut says Kansas is too good for NC State. But if they're a bit underwhelming again? We'll have an 11 seed in the Elite Eight for the second straight year.

Sweet 16 Thursday Primer

Gone already are the days in which we are treated to deciding between watching CBS, TNT, TruTV and TBS because four basketball games are playing all at once. Today we get just four games total. Lucky for the people who will make the decision to keep watching, they should be some pretty good games.

Wisconsin vs. Syracuse, 7:15 p.m.
Does anyone have a handle on what's going to happen in this game? There's no way to know which version of either of these teams is going to show up tonight. Wisconsin was the team that ratings systems like Kenpom and Sagarin loved to love, but basketball fans loved to hate all season. They were rated highly, but in their play we saw a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team. But in two games in the NCAA Tournament, the Badgers have looked more the former than the latter. They thrashed a good Montana team in the first round, and then shut down Vanderbilt's best players (and therefore offense) to squash the Commodores. Now they get Syracuse, a team that is certainly better than them. But Syracuse has looked like two completely different teams in the tournament. In the first round against UNC-Asheville, the Orange were bad, playing too fast like they were panicked, and didn't shoot well on top of it. In the third round against Kansas State, they got back to basics, and Fab Melo or not, looked like the well-balanced, deep team that showed up for the entire regular season.
So which teams will show up? I think the Syracuse that played against Kansas State will be the one we see tonight. And while Wisconsin has long been the best team in the country in turning games ugly, I think even if this game goes that way, Syracuse's athleticism and depth will carry it to triumph in the end. I see the Orange build an eight to ten point lead, and then Wisconsin can never quite close that gap.

Louisville at Michigan State, 7:47 p.m.
Louisville and Michigan State come into this game as two of the hottest teams in the country; both won their conference tournament championships and have obviously followed that up by taking care of business with two wins to get the Sweet 16. Now they will run into each other. On paper to me, this one looks relatively easy. Michigan State matches up much better with Louisville than the other way around. They have the big men to go toe-to-toe with the Cardinals' bigs, and Keith Appling is just as good (probably better) than Peyton Siva, who has been a big source of offense for Louisville recently. That doesn't even take Draymond Green into account. Michigan State's point-power forward is one of the toughest matchups in the country, and Louisville would appear to be poorly suited to guard him; I'm curious to see who is going to have to take the assignment. This seems like the type of thing that could turn into a situation like the Thunder playing the Mavericks in last year's NBA Playoffs, and the Thunder experimenting with what seemed like its entire roster to find someone to guard Dirk Nowitzki. Long story short--none of them worked. The Mavs won. I think the same will happen for the Spartans. Louisville's best chance lies in turning this game into a grinder in the 50s, and having its team defense dictate what happens all game long.

Cincinnati vs. Ohio State
Without question the most anticipated game on Thursday, Cincy-OSU presents a very interesting matchup. Even beyond the mutual hatred between the programs, this looks interesting. Jared Sullinger has not been as dominant as expected this season, and when he has had poor or frustrating games, he has gotten pouty and quit all year. It has been special to watch, because when that happens, Ohio State usually loses. If UC is going to make it to the Elite Eight, that is its most likely route--through a down-in-the-dumps Sully. Luckily for the Bearcats, Yancy Gates is playing unbelievably well and has the size and skills to perhaps piss Sullinger off enough. If "Sulkinger" comes into play, Ohio State is going to need William Buford to start playing well again. The senior has been a bit of a disappointment at times this year. He is an extremely talented scorer, but has poor shooting days way too often. Ohio State is going to need the version of him that hit the game-winner against Michigan State in the regular season's final game. If the Buckeyes get that, they're going to be tough to beat period, let alone in this game.

Florida vs. Marquette
Is Florida actually a Sweet 16 team? At one point, the Gators almost cracked the top ten in the AP Rankings this season. Then, they lost several games near the end of the season and looked really vulnerable. Then, they destroyed Virginia in the second round of the tournament. In the third round, they were lucky enough to play Norfolk State, which deserves credit for outplaying Missouri, but it was very unlikely that level of play would show up again. Florida dominated again, and here we are. Marquette, on the other hand, looks every bit the part of a Final Four-capable team. The Golden Eagles are playing hard, have a coach that has changed the culture there and has every player buying into giving maximum effort, and they possess two absolute studs in Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom. The fact that I've basically written Florida off in this paragraph, however, makes this feel like a trap game. And given my track record in 2012 for picking tournament games (I have seven of 16 Sweet 16 teams correct in my bracket, the worst I can ever remember doing), maybe my word is not worth taking. But I love the way that Marquette plays, and think Florida has been fortunate to get here. I believe the Gators will be overwhelmed in the nightcap.

Why the Sweet 16 is still worth watching

Today my dad called out to from another room and said, "Isn't this about as bad a Sweet 16 as we could have? Between North Carolina, Kentucky and Xavier all making it, and no mid-majors that have a chance to do anything." He then thought for a moment before adding, "I guess that means I won't have to spend time watching the games."

And while my dad is right, this is a disastrous Sweet 16 for Dayton and Duke fans (exacerbated by the fact that it was Duke's loss to Lehigh in the the Round of 64 that in theory made it easier on Xavier to make the Sweet 16). But when I have the chance, I'll be catching games this Thursday through Sunday, because there are some awesome ones still available. Sorry to all the Bobcat fans out there, but I don't see North Carolina-Ohio as one of them. OU making it to the Sweet 16 is probably the best story of the tournament, but the size of North Carolina looks like something it will be just about impossible for the Bobcats to overcome. A 15-30 type shooting day from the three point line might make a difference, but otherwise, I'd say the ride will be over in Athens. How about NC State vs. Kansas though? North Carolina State has been one of the pleasures to watch in the tournament's first four days, looking like it is on a mission. The Wolfpack big men have been unstoppable, and they will be going up against the best big man in the country this season (numbers wise) in Thomas Robinson from Kansas. Not to mention that T-Rob is pretty entertaining to watch anyway.

And what about the two games opposing each other at the top of the bracket, Kentucky-Indiana and Syracuse-Wisconsin? If UK-IU comes close to the first meeting between the two teams, it'll be worth the price of admission, and Wisconsin finally looks like it is playing the level of basketball it is capable of, while Syracuse righted the ship in the third round against Kansas State. The Orange are never going to be the same team defensively without Fab Melo, but they have the opportunity to be a much more deadly offensive team throughout the game. The Orange are not out of the national title hunt yet.

The bottom line is this: The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight are almost never as fun as the rounds that precede them. The sheer volume of basketball (and therefore number of entertaining games that transpire) that whittles the field from 64 to 16 is difficult to overcome. But the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight still have in them what has always made college basketball the best basketball there is: you get to see these guys lay everything out there. We get to watch these players give it absolutely everything they have, because for most of them, it will be the last Sweet 16 game they play. For the players coming from North Carolina and Kentucky, it will be the last fun, team-oriented basketball they play.

Getting to see guys really care about winning, and going as hard as they can to keep on playing is the best part of this tournament. With perhaps the exception of Kevin Garnett in his first year with the Celtics, stuff like Robbie Hummel's reaction walking off the court and in the press conferences just doesn't happen in pro sports. It's why college basketball will always be the best. It's why I'm going to keep on watching.

Thursday late games Roundup

Usually having a Thursday off work doesn't do me much good. But I was lucky enough to have the opening Thursday of March Madness off work, and plan on taking full advantage. I will watch every single game, and give whatever reactions are necessary to capture the day in basketball. Here's what went down in the final eight games of the day.

Best Game
The second set of games were better than the first eight, but not by much. The game of the day has to go to Wichita State vs. Virginia Commonwealth. In one of the more highly anticipated mid-major games of the night, the Rams completed the first upset of the day by responding to a Wichita State rally and hitting shots late to win the game. VCU has made its mark on the defensive end this year, and that was no different in this game. Wichita State, the defending NIT Champs, came out cold and had trouble dealing with VCU's pressure in the first half. The Shockers staged a late rally, but VCU responded, and viewers were treated to a couple minutes of pressure-packed, back-and-forth basketball. In the end, VCU made its shots in the final two minutes than Wichita could muster. As a result, Shaka Smart and the Rams have picked up where they left off in the NCAAs last year. Wichita State looked like the type of experience-laden, athletic and deep team that could give Kentucky trouble in the South Region. But that is no longer an option.
Honorable mention to Colorado's win over UNLV, in which the Buffaloes built a 20-point lead in the second half on the strength of some unbelievable shooting, and then managed to hold off the Runnin' Rebels' furious rally, bringing the lead as low as two at one point.

Biggest Disappointment
Connecticut. This is really a season-long award for the Huskies, but it was personified in the defending champs' loss to Iowa State. How a team can have all those future-NBA players and be so bad is beyond me. But UConn manages to pull it off. Jeremy Lamb is an unbelievable player, but he disappears. Andre Drummond is supposed to be the second best center prospect in college basketball, but he does nothing. UConn was without its coach for much of the season, but that is not even close to an excuse for falling behind Iowa State by 22 points in the first half. Sure, Connecticut made a run in the second to make things closer, but they were worn out at the end and fell apart. They never should have been in the position to need a comeback that significant.

Trending Topics
Defense wins Championships? Since the beginning of the day, we've seen several high-octane offenses stifled, and the teams possessing those offenses. Davidson, Wichita State and UNLV all had among the highest-scoring offenses in the country, and were very smooth in their fast-paced style of play. But Louisville, VCU and Colorado shut those teams down for the most part, allowing only the offenses to ignite only in brief spurts. In addition, BYU's defensive adjustments made the difference against Iona in the first four, when the Gaels had previously put on one of the great offensive displays ever, and Murray State was down one to Colorado State at halftime, but picked it up significantly on the defensive end, and held the Rams to just 16 second half points en route to an impressive win. Will the defenses continue to dominate? Here's to hoping that Notre Dame's defense does the trick against Xavier, and Vermont's is successful against North Carolina (ha).

Looking forward to Round 3
Ohio State beat Loyola Maryland by 19, but was not especially impressive. Loyola was vastly undersized, and had to navigate the game with every starter in foul trouble for most of the game. Still, the Greyhounds stuck around for an inordinate amount of time. On the other hand, Gonzaga looked great against West Virginia. The Zags opened up a 20-point lead in what felt like no time, and held onto it. It was Deshaun Thomas and Jared Sullinger who dominated the game against Loyola, and they won't likely be able to expose Gonzaga on the interior. Elias Harris and Robert Sacre are big enough to contend with Thomas and Sullinger. If the Buckeyes don't play better defense, they may be exiting early.

Thursday early games Roundup

Usually having a Thursday off work doesn't do me much good. But I was lucky enough to have the opening Thursday of March Madness off work, and plan on taking full advantage. I will watch every single game, and give whatever reactions are necessary to capture the day in basketball. Here's what went down in the first eight games.

Best Game
Syracuse vs. UNC-Asheville. In a game that will forever be tainted by the officiating in my mind, Syracuse pushed ahead in the second half and hung on with some help to avoid being the first 1-seed ever to lose. There are several terrible calls that can be pointed out from this game (a no-call goaltending, a lane violation called on a guard and the worst out-of-bounds call in recent memory are the most obvious). What's most amazing is none of them necessarily won Syracuse the game. It just would have been closer by two or three points on certain possessions down the stretch. But watching the game, any non-Cuse fan was only thinking about how the little guys had been cheated. It's a shame that Asheville guard Matt Dickey's career came to end in a game like that. Dickey, an excellent guard and Big South Player of the Year, was just 1-13 from the field, and those calls certainly did not help with the bitter taste in his mouth at the end of the game.

Biggest Disappointment
Second half officiating in the Cuse/Asheville game. But since that's already been discussed, Montana is my biggest disappointment. The 13 seed looked absolutely nothing like the team I had seen play earlier this season. The Grizzlies came in with a similar play-style and enough size to give Wisconsin plenty of trouble. They do their best work on the defensive end, but not in this game. After surrendering a late run to give Wisconsin a 10-point lead at half, it still looked like the Grizz had a shot if they started shooting better in the second half. Instead, they went into hibernation (which is odd, because it's getting to springtime), and handed Wisconsin its most lopsided victory of the season since conference play started (read: since they started playing decent teams). They gave up 73 to Wisconsin! Ugh.

Trending Topics
Mid-major teams that I have lauded are going down fast. When I wrote about mid-major teams to watch out for, it was teams that actually looked like they could cause some problems in the early rounds of the tournament. Evidently not. Iona suffered the biggest collapse in NCAA Tournament history Tuesday night, and today Davidson and Montana laid a couple eggs on the court. Long Beach State was competitive in its game against New Mexico, but couldn't make plays down the stretch and lost as well. South Dakota State and St. Bonaventure (the two longest shots on that list, by seeding) are the last line of defense against a goose egg in my upsets column.

What to look for in Round Three
Murray State and Marquette will meet in what should be a pretty fun matchup. Once again, Marquette does not have great size, which will suit Murray just fine. Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year Isaiah Canaan is going to need to step up. He has had two straight poor shooting games that have still resulted in wins for Murray State. That is a testament to how good the Racers really are. But a no-show from Canaan will not work out quite so well against Marquette, methinks.
Syracuse vs. Kansas State is also an interesting matchup. Are the Orange really as vulnerable as they looked against Asheville, or was it just a classic case of early tournament jitters and adjustments? If Bob Wenzel is to be believed (and he's not), then 'Cuse will be fine. My gut tells me Syracuse will win the game, but once again not by much. At the very least, I think it will be a non-referee-aided victory, which would be nice to see.

Dayton-Xavier III: Devastation

I've tried to wait awhile and separate myself from the game that happened yesterday before writing this. While emotion can be an excellent catalyst for writing, the kind of emotion being spouted by me last night was going to be in no way conducive to any sort of creative function.

And with some time to step back and think about the game, I keep coming back to the same thing:
With 5.3 seconds left, Dayton was down one point and inbounding the ball. There is no question that 5.3 seconds is a delicate amount of time. Not enough time that you can really worry about trying to move the ball for a good shot (ideally, you want the opportunity to foul if you miss), but also enough time that a shot does not have to come immediately. Being calm about 5.3 seconds and the opportunity it represents as an offense (Christian Laettner got off a fake, dribble and turnaround-fadeaway in 2.1 seconds. Yes, I'm posting this video and watching it as a means to feeling better) can be the key to winning a game in the closing seconds. Unfortunately, whatever happened in the UD huddle leading up to Chris Johnson's final meaningful shot of his career, calm was not instilled.

CJ received the inbound pass from Kevin Dillard running away from the basket and immediately put up a nearly impossible shot. With that type of momentum going in the wrong direction, to put up a shot was ludicrous. But CJ did, and it fell short, as all such shots do, and Dayton lost, as most such games turn out. Watching with my dad, he immediately spouted, "That's a horrible shot. That was a horrible shot, what was he doing? You've gotta shot fake, and go to the basket!" After about 60 seconds of my staring at the TV screen and not moving, I answered a call from my brother. The conversation went something like this.

"Hey."
"What was he doing shooting that ball?"
"I don't know, man. I don't want to talk about it."
"Yeah I know it bud. Bottom line is down one you always go to the rim to try and score."
"Yeah."

Bottom line is whatever happened during the final two timeouts of Dayton's 70-69 loss to Xavier in the A-10 Quarterfinals, it was at least clear that Chris Johnson was considered a solid option. Whatever was drawn up or directed, the way CJ took his shot so quickly, it seemed clear with Dillard throwing the ball in that he was the desired option. Upon catching the ball, CJ had three options, two involving pump fakes (fake and go past Mark Lyons to the basket, or fake and go into Lyons to draw a foul). He chose option three, which was shoot immediately. You know the rest.

Two years ago, Xavier beat Dayton at the Cintas Center 78-74, due to some unbelievable individual plays from Jordan Crawford. After Dayton exacted its revenge and throttled X 90-65, a member of the UD staff said that he knew they were a better team than Xavier was, citing the 4-point loss away from home and 25-point win at home as proof. And at the time, I certainly agreed with him. But in game three, in the A-10 Tournament, Dayton gained an early lead, couldn't hold it, and fell apart in the end in a 78-73 loss. This year, Dayton beat Xavier easily at home and barely lost on the road again, but which team was really better was anyone's guess. What hurts so bad about this loss is Dayton had the game won. Matt Kavanaugh hit two free throws with 3:02 remaining to put Dayton up 69-63. Those were the last points Dayton scored. UD spent the rest of the game allowing Mark Lyons and Tu Holloway to get to the basket, and stalling on offense until a three-pointer had to be thrown up to avoid a shot clock violation (unsuccessfully once).

One basket during that stretch and Xavier starts fouling, sending Dayton's excellent foul-shooters to the line. Kavanaugh, Dillard, CJ and Paul Williams combine to go 7-8 or 9-10 from the line to close the game. Holloway starts crying when he realizes that not even his 30-foot step-back threes are going to win the game for Xavier this time. Dayton fans start rejoicing, first because Holloway is crying, and second because Dayton has now won the game.

But that made basket never came. Kavanaugh's cutting, leaning layup wouldn't drop, and CJ's no-pump last gasp never stood a chance. Dayton's shot at knocking Xavier out of the NCAA Tournament and bringing itself a step closer fell by the wayside, like many of the Flyers' losses this year.

In the end, what said it all was one bullet-point from Joe Lunardi's late-night Bracketology update after the action last night: "Dayton drops of the bubble with a loss to Xavier in the A-10 quarterfinals." Meanwhile, Xavier appears to have removed itself from the bubble, and win or lose against Saint Louis on Saturday, Tu Holloway will be dancing once more.

When are things going to to turn for Dayton?

The RPI vs. all

As we move through the final couple weeks of college basketball season, the selection committee and teams on the bubble will begin to take over what is important in basketball. And this year, as those potential selections have started to draw our attention, I've noticed that the RPI seems to have taken more shots than usual. Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com has written about his disdain for the RPI and Scott Van Pelt delivered a diatribe (that made about 30 good points) on the matter.

Then yesterday I read an excellent piece from John Gasaway on the history of the RPI from Basketball Prospectus (it's a long article, but if you've got the time, check it out). Gasaway attended the NCAA's mock selection committee and came away searching for more information. Some of the more interesting tidbits to be found in this article:

"Van Valkenburg and his staff looked at using margin of victory in their new rating system, but rejected the idea for two reasons: it could encourage coaches to run up the score, and final scores "oftentimes do not reflect the closeness of games." Instead Van Valkenburg and his colleagues formulated a rating system that adjusted a team's Division I winning percentage based on strength of schedule and game location. The name "Ratings Percentage Index" apparently came about because it did not include the taboo word "Ranking" and because it was thought "RPI" formed a serviceable acronym."
Among the largest complaints about the RPI is that it does not take margin of victory into account. Many of the newer metrics for measuring teams lists margin of victory as an essential component to whether or not a team is actually good (KenPom, LRMC, ESPN's new BPI, John Hollinger's NBA rankings, the list goes on). And there is some truth to that. A team that is 10-0 with all its wins by three or less points is probably not as good as one that is 8-2 with seven wins by double digits, and two losses by five or less. But what is more interesting from that quote is why the RPI creators chose not to use margin of victory. They believed it would encourage coaches to have their teams run up the score. And think about it: for the past decade or so, haven't we heard about teams doing what they can to satisfy the RPI? It started out by teams just trying to secure as high a winning percentage as possible, then when the RPI was adjusted, the fad became scheduling as many top-100 RPI teams as they can to improve their RPI ranking with wins. So if margin of victory was included in the initial RPI, wouldn't coaches have just left their starters in the game in early season games and tried to win by 50? Would that have helped to tell us anything about which of those teams was best? Interestingly, as Gasaway notes in the Prospectus piece, the exclusion of margin of victory in the RPI has "created the perfect conditions under which scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule, could and has become a surpassingly powerful evaluative tool. But those of us who use that tool should acknowledge the analytic free ride we've been given, courtesy of Van Valkenburg. The stats we're able to deploy in 2012 are great at evaluating teams -- but the only teams we've ever been able to evaluate have been ones striving to look good to Jim Van Valkenburg, and not to us."

Also of note from the article: "Today when Van Valkenburg's invention is faulted on the grounds that it doesn't perform as well as other rating systems that benefit from more recent advances, an oddly prevalent response is that the NCAA "isn't trying to predict anything." Gasaway goes on to say that it seems odd to him the NCAA wouldn't want to improve upon its own formulas between seasons, but I couldn't help but be struck by the above quote, because I agree with it wholeheartedly. I hate the RPI, and have since I've been old enough to grasp what it is. But when selecting teams for the NCAA Tournament, I don't think the NCAA should be "trying to predict anything". It should be selecting for at-large bids the 38 teams that have earned it more than others. Of course, who has "earned" it most is weak language because it could be interpreted in many ways, but I think first and foremost to "earning" a berth in the tournament should be winning. And so it occurred to me that while the Jeff Sagarins and Ken Pomeroys of the world may have better systems for showing us which teams are the best in the country (I believe they do), their systems may not be any better than the RPI for selecting tournament teams, because they are meant to be predictive. I don't care how well the numbers think a team like Minnesota will perform if given a shot, I care whether the team's results from the season warrant being given a shot. So I decided to do a comparison between the ratings systems.

There are 38 at-large bids given out in the NCAA Tournament. So I looked at the top 38 teams in the RPI (as according to realtimerpi.com), Sagarin and Kenpom ratings. Of course, several of those teams will win their conference tournaments and receive automatic bids. To account for those teams, I removed any team that was in first place in its conference as of games played Feb. 22, and used the top 38 excluding those teams. Here were the final 15 teams to make the bracket from each rating system:

From looking that list over, one thing becomes abundantly clear quickly: the RPI is grossly overrating the Conference-USA. In the RPI, the C-USA would be getting four teams into the tournament (Southern Miss is rated 11th! and Memphis is 27th), including a 17-10 Marshall squad whose best win this season is a 65-64 triumph at home over UCF. Um, no. Also, the RPI has St. Joseph's making the tournament, an 18-11 team out of the A-10 with essentially the same resume' as Dayton, but less quality wins. Clearly, the RPI is not a very good system for placing these teams in the tournament.

But a quick glance at the Kenpom final 15 doesn't exactly set one's mind at ease. Two names jump off the page from the Pomeroy final 15: La Salle and South Dakota St. Pomeroy has been championing the Explorers out of the A-10 as one of the nation's most underrated teams, but they are just 18-10 (7-6 in the A-10) with losses to Robert Morris, Delaware, Dayton, Richmond and St. Joe's. Doesn't look like a tournament team to me. And South Dakota State has gone 22-7 on the season, but they play in the Summit League. They have lost to 12-14 North Dakota by 19 points, 15-14 Oakland, and (wait for it) a 9-17 South Dakota team. I'm sure the battle for South Dakota is as intense as any rivalry in the country, but South Dakota is 4-12 in the Summit this year. Maybe if SDSU's record were more like 26-3, you could forgive them a loss like that. But 22-7? I don't think so.

In Sagarin's final 15, the largest disturbance for me is in the five consecutive Big East teams near the top. In addition to those, Sagarin has four rated above them receiving bids. His nine Big East teams do not include South Florida, a team that sits third in the conference standings and in the eyes of the committee is probably ahead of at least a couple of those teams in the final 15. So according to those rankings, NINE OR TEN BIG EAST TEAMS SHOULD MAKE THE TOURNAMENT THIS YEAR. THE BIG EAST IS NOT VERY GOOD THIS YEAR! Come on. Looking at the Big East standings doesn't do anything to assuage the discomfort. The team currently sitting 10th is West Virginia (17-11, 7-8 Big East). Perfect resume' for sneaking into a 10 or 11 seed. Ugh. The other issue I see in Sagarin's is one that pops up in Kenpom as well. San Diego State is rated by both of them as barely making the tournament. In Kenpom, the Aztecs are actually the last team to make the field. Sure, SDSU has suffered some bad losses of late and fallen off a bit, but that is still insane! They are so far superior to the teams surrounding them in each of those ratings (Northwestern, South Dakota State, Minnesota, Southern Miss), that this almost looks like a joke.

In addition to all this, if Murray State were to lose its conference tournament, it would not receive an at-large bid according to Kenpom's numbers (currently rated 56, San Diego St. is 57), and would be right on the borderline for Sagarin (currently 46, Illinois is 55). That is ridiculous. I don't think there is much doubt the Racers have proven they belong comfortably in the tournament, not on the bubble (let alone off it). Of course, the RPI would have three Pac-12 teams making the field (absurd), and would be setting Colorado State as a six or seven seed. The Rams (17-9, 6-5) have had a couple great wins in the Mountain West, but should not be considered a tournament team yet.

Interesting to me is that all three systems have Miami of Florida making the field relatively comfortably (a nine or 10 seed). The U certainly qualifies as a bubble team at the moment, but at 16-10 overall and 7-6 in the ACC with exactly zero good wins on its resume' (best so far are wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech), the Hurricanes should not be considered an easy choice right now (as they seem to be by all three ratings systems). Maybe Miami actually is better than it seems, though, if three different methods of looking at them come out relatively positive.

I realize that neither Jim Van Valkenberg, Ken Pomeroy nor Jeff Sagarin would say the best way to make tournament selections would be to simply run down their list and pick them in order. Pomeroy has said as much and Van Valkenberg's son says the same in the Prospectus piece. I know am pretty sure all those men would believe that Murray State and San Diego State are easy tournament calls.

But that wasn't the point of this post. Yes, the RPI is horrible. But when it comes to its supposed principal use, selecting tournament teams, all of our advanced metrics from today aren't much better at doing the job.

Mid-Major Report: 2/21

After a fantastic Bracketbusters weekend, here we are again with the Mid-Major Report. Similar to last week, there have been some serious shake-ups regarding the rankings. With so many good teams playing each other, that was bound to happen. But the week also produced some extremely surprising results outside of Bracketbusters games, specifically in the Mountain West Conference. That is why we have a new number one team. Keep reading to see who they are. As always, refer to the first report of the year for information about how these rankings are achieved.

Dropped Out: San Diego State (0-2 last week, lost to New Mexico and Air Force), Saint Mary's (0-2 last week, lost to Loyola Marymount and at Murray State, have now lost three of four)
A very surprising duo to see fall from the rankings, considering two weeks ago I would have said neither one had a shot at dropping out. But then again, I didn't foresee results like these.
Outside Looking In: Iona, Long Beach State(had their shot at Creighton), George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Weber State

10. Saint Louis (22-5, 11th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings
The Billikens return to the Mid-Major Report after a six-week hiatus. They looked among the best mid-majors in the country early in the year, but then lost a couple games and couldn't string enough wins together to get back on top. Now, Saint Louis has won six in a row and nine of ten, including a win at Xavier during the stretch, to provide a little separation for itself from the teams behind it in the Atlantic 10 standings. The Billikens have been highly rated by kenpom.com's system the entire season (39th-ranked adjusted offense, 10th adjusted-defense, top-100 strength of schedule), and appear to be living up to their predictive billing now. With just three games left, the Billikens go on the road twice and play Xavier at home--not an easy road to the finish. But they look to be in good shape for a middling seed at the NCAA Tournament.

9. UNLV (22-6, 29 Pomeroy)
The Rebels were the number 1 team last week, mainly because I couldn't justify placing New Mexico ahead of them. Well, they quickly let me know I should have done just that by losing in overtime to TCU at home. And then they made sure to let the country know they weren't up to the task of being No. 1 by delivering their lowest offensive output on the season by 19 points, and getting trounced at New Mexico in the process. The high ranking from last week and win over San Diego State are all that barely kept the Rebels in the top 10. They are still a very good team, and Mike Moser is one of the very best players on any mid-major team in the country. The Rebels will recover, but last week was ugly.

8. Drexel (23-5, 46 Pomeroy)
The Drexel Dragons are making their debut in the Mid-Major top 10 on the strength of a 15-game winning streak (and they've won 21 of their last 22). After dealing with injuries at the beginning of the year, the Dragons are at full strength and atop the Colonial Athletic Association (tied with George Mason). The Colonial looks like a better conference than it has been given credit for this season, as it fared pretty well in Bracketbusters games (the top four teams in the conference all won, including Drexel by 20 at Cleveland State and Old Dominion at Missouri State). So at 14-2, the Dragons probably deserve more credit than they've been given so far. Despite middle of the road advanced metrics (66th adjusted-offense, 51st adjusted-defense), the Dragons looked very impressive Saturday and are hot as can be.

7. Creighton (23-5, 37 Pomeroy)
Creighton went 2-0 last week, but is barely in the top 10 after stealing its Bracketbusters game from Long Beach State. You can't help but feel like the Blue Jays would be gone if they had been unfortunate enough to have a road game instead of a home one. But they played at home, and with wins at Southern Illinois and over LBSU, they may have righted the ship. Sure, the Jays gave away the the Missouri Valley regular season, but they still have the best player in the conference in Doug McDermott, and with a run in the MVC Tournament, could play themselves back into good seeding in the NCAAs.

6. Harvard (23-3, 30 Pomeroy)
After the disappointing loss at Princeton last week, Harvard got back to what it does best (18th-ranked adjusted-defense), and gave up 42 and 51 points with wins over Brown and Yale last week. The win over Yale in particular was important because a loss would have meant the Crimson had fallen back to the pack in the Horizon League standings. But with the win it maintained a game advantage over Penn and extended its lead on Yale to two games. Harvard still has key games against Princeton and Penn (both at home) to come, so its fate is far from determined yet.

5. Temple (21-5, 31 Pomeroy)
It was a relatively pedestrian week for Temple, which enjoyed wins over A-10 middle-of-the-pack-ers St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. Still, two wins at this stage of the season always look good. With four games to play, Temple has one tough week (this week), and one that looks much simpler in closing out the season. The Owls play at LaSalle (a surprising 18-9, 7-5 in the A-10 this year) and then a rivalry game at St. Joseph's, which has also played above its expectations in the conference this year, posting an 8-5 mark so far. Both those games should be wins for Temple, but don't underestimate the upset potential of a road game against the other A-10 school from Philadelphia.

4. Brigham Young (23-6, 32 Pomeroy)
Yes, BYU has climbed to fourth in the rankings. Despite losing twice to Saint Mary's this year, the Cougars are in the top five, while the Gaels are outside the top 10. But guess what? BYU's record in the last two weeks is 4-0, and St. Mary's is 1-3. Sure, BYU's mark has come against lesser competition (at San Francisco (not bad) and at Santa Clara (terrible) last week), but these rankings are about who's playing well right now. The Gaels aren't. The Cougars seem to be. We'll find out just how well they're playing this week, when BYU visits Gonzaga Thursday. It will not be a game they are expected to win, but if BYU can pull off the upset, like New Mexico, we'll have to start taking them very seriously.

3. Murray State (26-1, 57 Pomeroy)
Everyone can go ahead and calm back down about whether the Racers are for real or not. Since its loss to Tennessee State, Murray State has gone 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 14 points. And if you didn't follow college basketball this weekend, Murray's most recent victory was a 14-point clubbing of Saint Mary's, in which the Racers took the lead and never looked back. For being the game most Bracketbusters aficionados were looking forward to, it was pretty anticlimactic. The Racers were really in control of a team that until about a week and a half ago I thought was the best mid-major in the country. So much for that. Even though kenpom.com will still never be able to fully give the Racers the love they deserve due to their run of close games and poor strength of schedule, they still jumped 11 spots in his rankings from last week. That's pretty significant this late in the season. And now, a running of the table has Murray back in the conversation for a top-5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

2. Wichita State (24-4, 10 Pomeroy)
In you were to ask me who was the most impressive team from Bracketbusters weekend, I would not hesitate in saying it was the Shockers. They appear to be living up to the lofty expectations kenpom.com has had for them for most of the season. On Saturday Wichita visited Davidson and matched up with a very impressive Wildcats squad (one that I suspect will be on these rankings most of next year; they bring all five starters back). After an extremely entertaining first half, the Shockers just imposed their will on Davidson en route to a 91-74 win. Wichita really looked excellent. It shot the ball extremely well, showed off its impressive depth and athleticism, and delivered a dominant offensive second half. These players--Joe Ragland, Toure' Murry, Ben Smith, David Kyles and Carl Hall, are as athletic a group as anywhere in America that I've seen this season. O, and not mentioned in that group is the Shockers' leading scorer and rebounder, 7-footer Garrett Stutz.

1. New Mexico (22-4, 9 Pomeroy)
In similar fashion to Wichita, New Mexico lived up to its advanced-metric hype this past week. At No. 2 last week, I said the Lobos would have to prove to me that they've changed since the beginning of the conference season. Well, prove themsevles they did. With a 10-point win at San Diego State and a 20-point win (and dominant defensive performance) at home against UNLV, the Lobos delivered the most impressive two-win week of any team in the Mid-Major Report this year. With losses by both SDSU and UNLV to other opponents during the week, New Mexico also seized control of the Mountain West regular season race, opening up a 2-game lead. They have the seventh-ranked adjusted-defense at kenpom.com and a star in Drew Gordon who is playing his best ball at the right time (17 points, 17 rebounds at SDSU, 27 points, 20 rebounds vs. UNLV). After a fantastic weekend of college basketball, New Mexico and The Pit sit at No. 1.

Dayton's last stand

See CJ staring up at the clock? That's because he knows time is running out.

With six games to play, Dayton sits at 15-9 on the season and 5-5 in the Atlantic 10, good for eighth place in the conference. You might note that is more or less the position Dayton has finished in the conference standings the past couple years, and it is more or less the position they appear to be headed for again. Dayton's final six games consist of three games they will be favored to win (tonight against Charlotte, at Richmond and versus George Washington) and three games you would figure they will have their hands full (at Xavier, at Duquesne and versus Massachusetts).

But let's pretend for a second that despite their weary legs, lack of defense and poor depth, the Flyers manage to catch fire one more time, and start playing the way they did when they ran through Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Temple, LaSalle and Xavier en route to a 4-1 start in the A-10. Would a 21-9 record be enough to get Dayton a shot at an at-large bid? The team's resume going into the A-10 tournament would look something like this:

Record: 21-9, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: ~50
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x), Temple, Saint Louis, Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss (I'm not saying all of these actually are great wins, but they would be advertised as such)
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

That looks to me to be one of the more perplexing tournament resumes one could possibly look at. My first thought, if I didn't know who the team was, would be to figure that they had either drastically improved or fallen off over the course of the season, with the nice wins either coming early or late. But that's not been the case with this Dayton team. The quality wins and bad losses have been sprinkled evenly over the course of the season. My gut looking at the resume says no, this team would not be one deserving of an at-large. But to make sure, I took a look at the final teams to receive at-large bids over the last three years and compared them to this year's UD team. However, one final adjustment had to be made. The final at-large bids (seeds 10,11 and 12) contained teams from power-6 conferences and non-power conferences alike. In looking at the records of power-6 teams that received 11 or 12 seeds (almost certainly the type of seed Dayton would receive this year because they would likely be a First Four team), it was clear that those teams' strengths of schedule played a large difference in them getting recognition. None of those teams had 20-win seasons. UD's best possible record without 20 wins would be 19-11, and no matter who they beat, I think we can agree an at-large bid would be out of the question.

So, I decided just to look at the mid-major schools to receive at-large bids near the end of the draw. Here are their resumes:

2009
Dayton
Record: 26-7, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: 27
Quality Wins: George Mason, Xavier, Temple
Bad Losses: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Saint Louis (iffy whether that's a bad loss)

2010
Texas-El Paso
Record: 26-6, 15-1 Conference-USA
RPI: 39
Quality Wins: Houston
Bad Losses: none

Utah State
Record: 27-7, 14-2 WAC
RPI: 42
Quality Wins: BYU, New Mexico State
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, Louisiana Tech

2011
UAB
Record: 22-8, 12-4 Conference-USA
RPI: 31
Quality Wins: Arkansas? VCU?
Bad Losses: East Carolina, Southern Miss, Tulsa

VCU
Record: 23-11, 11-6 Colonial (believe it or not, they did play 17 conference games)
RPI: 49
Quality Wins: Wichita State, Old Dominion, UCLA
Bad Losses: South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern, James Madison

And here we are. A quick look at those resumes compared to UD says Dayton has no chance of an at-large. Sure, they have more quality wins by far than any team on that list, but they also have more quality losses, a worse RPI, and a worse conference and overall record than most.

However, it's important to keep in mind that Dayton wouldn't be finished at 21-9. The A-10 Tournament would still be looming large. And at 11-5 in the conference, a 4-5 seed is the most likely placement. Let's give Dayton a five seed so they play one more round. That would mean UD would have the possibility of three more wins and a loss (four wins would mean they win the automatic bid). In our continuation of the best-case scenario, UD would finish the season 24-10. And with a couple wins over some of the better A-10 competition, its RPI could improve to somewhere like 45. Now take a look at the resume:

24-10, 11-5 A-10
RPI: 45
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x(Maybe 3x)), Temple (Maybe 2x), Saint Louis (Maybe 2x), Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

The volume of bad losses still looms large, but does that resume look similar to any of the ones we showed above? How about last year's tournament darlings, the VCU Rams? 24-10 vs. 23-11, 11-5 vs. 11-6. 45 RPI vs. 49. Quality wins over mostly good mid-major teams, and several head-scratching bad losses. Not to mention that VCU finished its regular season losing four of five games before making it to the CAA Tournament final. In our projected scenario, UD would be on a nine game win streak before losing in the final. Sounds better to me.

Here's the thing, though: VCU had no business making the tournament last year. I know, I know, "they proved they deserved the bid with their play over the next three weeks". Woopty-doo, Basil. They hadn't earned their place there. They didn't have that great of a season until the tournament. But that is the opportunity the First Four provides. With three more bids in play, there is just a sliver of opportunity for a not-so-great team to sneak in if somebody on the selection committee makes the right argument.

In conclusion, If UD wins its next nine games, starting tonight against Charlotte, and then loses in the A-10 Championship Game, it will still only have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament. So Go Flyers!

I'll book my tickets for the CBI.

Mid-Major Report: 2/13

Upheaval! The strength at the top of the Mid-Major Report this season has been staggering, as several teams had put together significant win-streaks to get to the top and stay there for most of the season. Well, there's a new world order as we stare into the face of Bracketbusters week. Five of the top six teams from last week's report lost games this week. And with that, the top ten has been shaken like never before this season. The temptation was strong to drop four teams from the rankings this week so we could talk about a bunch of deserving newcomers, but that would have been ridiculous. Saint Mary's still deserves to be here So get ready to see some familiar faces, but in a whole new light. As always, you can refer to the first report of the year for information on how these rankings are achieved.

Dropped Out: Southern Miss (1-1 last week, last at 10-14 UAB)
Outside looking in: Drexel, VCU, George Mason, Saint Louis, Long Beach State

10. Creighton (21-5, 35th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Creighton is barely alive in this week's rankings after having a stranglehold on the top five all-season long. The Blue Jay's have now lost an almost inexplicable three games in a row. Their loss at Northern Iowa two weeks ago was not shocking; teams are almost always eventually going to lose a game like that when they don't play their best. But Creighton followed that up with a loss at Evansville and then a turd of a performance at home against Wichita State. In the process, they all but surrendered the Missouri Valley Conference title to the Shockers. It really has been a stunning turn of events, since the Blue Jays had easily beaten Wichita at Wichita over a month ago, and had looked just as good until February reared its head. Creighton is sporting one of the best offenses in the country, but that offense didn't show up at the same level against Northern Iowa and Evansville, and then when it was slightly better at home against Wichita State, the Blue Jays' 135-ranked adjusted-defense was exposed in giving up 89 points. Now, it's time for the Jays to draw a line in the sand. Continue free-falling, and they could unbelievably find themselves on the bubble. Right the ship, and they're still a comfortable six or seven seed.

9. Harvard (21-3, 37 Pomeroy)
Princeton got the best of Harvard again. What is up with this rivalry, that no matter how good Harvard seems to be, the Tigers have their number? Certainly, Princeton played well, shooting 50 percent from the field and going 17-24 from the foul line to Harvard's 7-11. The loss make's Harvard's situation with the NCAA Tournament much more precarious. Now with just a one-game lead in the Ivy League, losing the conference championship (the Ivy League does not hold a tournament) seems much more possible now, and would put Harvard in a similar situation to last year, when it did not receive an at-large bid. This team has gotten more recognition since the beginning of the season than last year's team did, since it was coming off a good season already. Harvard will have that going for it, but will it be enough? Probably best to just recover and win the next three games at home against Yale, Princeton and Penn, and secure the title.

8. Temple (19-5, 36 Pomeroy)
The Atlantic 10 is once again represented in the top 10. Temple sat just outside the rankings last week because despite a six-game win streak in the conference, they hadn't really beaten any of the teams that matter. Well, now that streak is up to eight, and with an easy dismantling of Xavier added to their resume, the Owls get the nod. Temple looks to be hitting its stride at the right time with Ryan Moore (18.8 ppg) and Khalif Wyatt (16.7) leading the way in scoring. Temple's 1-2 punch, along with the unflappable Juan Fernandez, gives them the 16th-best adjusted-offense in the country. And in typical Temple fashion, the Owls haven't shied away from tough competition this year. They have the 21st-rated strength of schedule in the country. And at 19-5 against that kind of competition, the Owls are to be taken seriously.

7. Murray State (24-1, 68 Pomeroy)
The Racers' six week run atop the Mid-Major Report is over. With a loss to Tennessee State at home, Murray State drops six spots in this week's poll. It was a bad loss, no question. And most writers have been chalking it up to the pressure of an undefeated season. Ken Pomeroy was bothered by this, and expressed as much in a post on his website. And while he doesn't discount the possibility of pressure playing a factor, he says the biggest reason they lost is more likely because win probabilities said there was no expectation of them continuing to win ("You play enough games in which you are heavily favored, and you are going to lose eventually. Put more precisely, a team that plays ten games as a 90% favorite is expected to lose once during that span, and the Racers have played a lot of such games this season, including the game against Tennessee State.") In my mind, the numbers guy's explanation and the feelings guys' explanations are two different ways of saying the same thing: It's really, really hard to go undefeated over the course of a college basketball season. And that's why Murray was No. 1 for as long as it was. By the way, after the loss, Murray won by 19.

6. San Diego State (20-4, 55 Pomeroy)
Any doubts we may have had about San Diego State due to their poor rating at kenpom.com should have been alleviated this week, when they came within a bucket of going 2-0 against UNLV this season. Actually, the team ratings back me up on this one. The UNLV game was SDSU's only game last week, and by losing they improved eight spots at kenpom.com from a week ago. Go figure. Playing a team highly rated by his system very closely will do that for you. Seriously, though, there should be no doubting the Aztecs from here on out. They are extremely talented and athletic, can run the floor and shoot the ball well. No doubt in my mind that they are a top 15 team in the country (as in a legitimate Elite Eight threat).

5. Brigham Young (21-6, 31 Pomeroy)
For the first time this season, BYU didn't fall out of the rankings the week after breaking into them. This is BYU's third stint in the Mid-Major Report, and during each of the previous two, they suffered losses to fall out immediately. Not this week. With a 38-point win over a bad Pepperdine squad, the Cougars extended their win-streak to three. Their 20th-rated adjusted-defense will be put to the test on the road next week; BYU plays its next three games on the road, including a huge game for them at Gonzaga. BYU has very little chance of winning the WCC, but a great shot at of improving its seeding come tournament time.

4. Saint Mary's (23-3, 32 Pomeroy)
Despite a loss at Gonzaga last week, there's no need to panic about St. Mary's. That's because it wasn't all that surprising of a loss. Gonzaga is very good; Gonzaga is a tough place to play; St. Mary's had won 12 in a row going into the game. The Gaels are still, like San Diego State, a threat to beat anybody in the country on a given day. They have the 14th-best adjusted-offense in the country, and average better than 16 assists per game. Yeah, the loss hurts just a bit, but with a Bracketbusters game at Murray State upcoming, as well as the WCC Tournament looming, the Gaels have plenty of time to do some damage and secure an excellent seed in the tournament.

3. Wichita State (22-4, 9 Pomeroy)
The Shockers have been ranked almost comically high at kenpom.com all year, but after dominating Creighton Saturday, they have set the new standard. A top-10 spot! I will say this, however, on their behalf: during the Creighton game Wichita State actually looked worthy of being so highly rated (maybe not top 10, but definitely top 20). The Shockers took a lead in the first half and never looked back, turning in a splendid offensive performance. They now have the ninth-rated adjusted-offense, 24th adjusted-defense, and 72nd best strength of schedule. Oh yeah, and they're in the driver's seat to win the MVC title now. Like Temple, they appear to be playing their best basketball of the season at a good time to do it.

2. New Mexico (20-4, 12 Pomeroy)
The Lobos are another team that play exactly to Ken Pomeroy's specifications, coming in this week with an obscenely high ranking of 12. Of course, you now know if you didn't before that New Mexico is the one team out of the top six from last week to avoid a loss. But with wins over Boise State and Wyoming (in which NM scored just 48 points), it wasn't enough to get them the top spot. Really, the reason New Mexico didn't make the cut is I'm being cautious with them once again. They climbed to fifth in the Jan. 17 Mid-Major Report, and promptly went 0-2 the following week against
San Diego State and UNLV. Well, guess who they've got coming up this week? Yup. At San Diego State and home against UNLV. Prove to me that you've changed this time around, New Mexico.

1. UNLV (22-4, 22 Pomeroy)
That's right. From No. 7 to No. 1. UNLV was that impressive (or maybe 1-6 from last week were just the opposite). Either way, anybody who watched the SDSU-UNLV game Saturday had to come away impressed by Vegas. They've got it all (except for maybe a consistent big man), and they have a player in Mike Moser who has it all individually: size, athleticism, length, speed, shooting ability, ball-handling. He was the best player on a court full of pretty excellent players. In the Mountain West Conference, clearly the best non-power-6 conference in the country, there is a three-way tie atop the league. San Diego State has lost two games by a combined 19 points. New Mexico has lost two games by a combined 12 points. And UNLV has lost two games by a combined four points (both on the road). Clearly at the moment, they've got the best resume of the group.

Good, Old-Fashioned kiddie fun at the Dean Dome

...So of course the same day I post about awesomeness in the NBA, college basketball made sure to steal my heart right back.

In game 2 of the 2009 Eastern Conference Semifinals, Lebron James hit a buzzer-beater to win the game. It was cool in the way that all buzzer-beaters are cool, but even more fun for me was watching the replays. From several different angles, knowing what had happened, you could look at what was going on around Lebron before and during the shot: fans, teammates, coaches, opponents, etc. For, me the best angle shown in the aftermath is the one from the opposite end of the court, with Lebron's back to you. He hits the three, then turns around, mouth open wide, screaming, and extends his arm upward, fist clenched. Of course, all the fans going bonkers in the background was cool, but none of it captured me the way the look on Lebron's face did. He looks like a little kid celebrating. The way he's screaming and how wide his eyes are, he can't believe he made the shot. And he couldn't be happier. Just like all the fans that night in Quicken Loans Arena. For me, it's cool to see an athlete, a guy who is usually all business on the court, look the way that I feel when I see a buzzer beater.

So, as you might imagine, it was about 100,000,000 times cooler to see Austin Rivers smile like a 10-year-old as he turned around to jump into the arms of Andre Dawkins and be mobbed by his teammates after hitting the game-winner (two links there, a 50-second and two-minute clip. I'd recommend the two-minuter of course) at North Carolina. Rivers is usually so serious that it seems to me he's working hard to put on the persona. But last night, as time ticked down with the ball in his hands and I was screaming, "Do something!" as Seth Curry was screaming, "Go! Go!" (see? the angles after the fact are cool), Rivers hit a shot that means he will always be remembered fondly by Duke fans. And then he turned around and shouted out loud just like I did (except he was on the court and I was on a couch). Then he ran down the court fired up, turned around and smiled the biggest smile I've ever seen on his face before being mobbed by his teammates.

As Rivers fell to the floor, he extended one arm and continued smiling, as if to say, "Thank God. Yes!" It was the same way his dad and sister and Dell Curry felt, as cameras showed them jumping around out of their seats like they had won the lottery. I had already managed to scream out loud, run up the stairs, keep screaming, and then run back downstairs and rehash every second of the game with my brother on the phone.

Both the Lebron shot and the Rivers one are amazing to watch. But what made the Duke buzzer-beater last night really special is that I felt justified in my irrational love for sports and Duke basketball. For as long as I can remember watching basketball, I've had days made or ruined by the exploits of the Duke Blue Devils (and eventually the Dayton Flyers as well). I've cried more times than I'd care to admit about Duke losses (or in some cases, wins Duke shouldn't have gotten) I know it doesn't make sense. Sports shouldn't matter this much. But I can't help it; they do. And Wednesday night, it was special to see in Rivers' face that jumper mattered even more to him than it did to me.

Mid-Major Report: 2/6

We've made it to February, and college basketball is getting wild. Instead of waiting for Bracketbusters games to take place, the mid-majors of the world decided to turn in a crazy slate of results a couple weeks in advance, which will only serve to make the Bracketbusters games more intriguing. Four teams inside the top 10 lost games last week, while several others sitting just outside also suffered losses and cost themselves a shot at making it into the rankings.

As always, refer to the first report of the year for information on how I come up with these rankings.

Dropped Out: Nevada (1-1 last week, lost at home to Idaho), Oral Roberts (1-1, lost at South Dakota State)
Outside looking in: Temple, Long Beach State, Drexel, Cleveland State, VCU

10. Southern Mississippi (20-3, 45th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Southern Miss makes it's glorious return to the top 10 on the wings of a five game win streak in the Conference-USA. The Golden Eagles dispatched Central Florida away from home and avenged their only C-USA loss by beating Memphis last week. With a strong close to the season (one, maybe two more losses), Southern Miss could be looking at an at-large bid (currently a nine-seed in bracketology, but as the automatic bid for C-USA. No telling where they would be if they didn't have the conference lead at the moment). The decision to include Southern Miss over Temple and Long Beach State was a tough one, but since USM's only loss since November was a two-pointer at Memphis, they got the benefit of the doubt.

9. Brigham Young (20-6, 33 Pomeroy)
The Cougars are back after turning in a strong week with the best win of any team in the top 10. After being beaten up by St. Mary's, the Cougars rebounded and beat Gonzaga by 10 and won by 19 at Portland. Two impressive results were enough to get them back into the top 10. Joe Lunardi felt the Cougars did deserved a nod as well, as he moved them into his NCAA Tournament field in the most recent Bracketology. With the excellent front line of forwards Noah Hartsock (17.6 points per game) and Brandon Davies (14.4 ppg and 8 rebounds per game), if BYU can close out the season strong, they'll be primed to make the tournament and perhaps make some noise with an upset or two.

8.. Wichita State (20-4, 16 Pomeroy)
The Shockers took care of business at Missouri State and at home against Indiana State in two close games, and so maintained their ranking for another week. Make no mistake, Wichita is the real deal. I don't know who Wichita State will be playing in the first round of the tournament, but I'm almost certain I'll be picking them to win the game. They are not 16th best in the country, as kenpom.com's team rankings indicate, but they are a top-30 team. They are ranked in the top 50 in the country in most important statistical categories, and are especially well-liked by the advanced metrics like adjusted offense and defense (13th and 25th, respectively). Don't sleep on the Shockers.

7. UNLV (21-4, 18 Pomeroy)
The Rebels stumbled at Wyoming last week, taking a 68-66 defeat after having two great looks to tie/win the game. This came as a pretty disappointing loss after UNLV was looking good to run through the Mountain West right up to its rematch with San Diego State. But after the loss to Wyoming, I have a bit of concern about the Rebels' ability to win on the road. Despite a nice road win at Illinois earlier in the year, all four of UNLV's losses have come on the road, and they've needed overtime to beat UC Santa-Barbara, Air Force and Boise State away from home. Not exactly some top competition there. Luckily for UNLV, you don't have to win on the road to win in the NCAA Tournament, and they will be there. They might do well to go for some wins in their remaining road games at New Mexico, Texas Christian and Colorado State, though, or it could kill their seeding.

6. Harvard (20-2, 38 Pomeroy)
Coming in at sixth and back in the Top 25 of the coaches poll is Harvard. Now riding an eight game win streak, the Crimson are still undefeated in the Ivy League and have a tiebreak advantage to pad their one-game lead over second-place Yale. Avoiding a hiccup at Pennsylvania will be key for Harvard in the upcoming week. Penn was the team that undid Harvard's season a year ago, and they will be looking to bring some of the same magic to this matchup. Harvard's defense is still among the best in the country (21st in adjusted-defense), and kept it up against Cornell and Columbia last week, holding the opponents to 60 and 52 points.

5. Creighton (21-3, 24 Pomeroy)
The Blue Jays lost a second game in the Missouri Valley Conference and are now tied with Wichita State with a game still to play against the Shockers. Creighton's decline with a loss this week was not as precipitous as some drops in the past in these rankings because it came on a buzzer-beater away from home. A quick look at Creighton's 65-62 loss at Northern Iowa and it looks more like a fluke than an indication of Creighton being exposed. The top team in the country for field-goal percentage at 51.2 percent, Creighton shot just 42.1 percent at Northern Iowa and scored 62 points, compared to its season average of 81 per game (sixth in the country). Similar to the Blue Jays' Dec. 28 loss to Missouri State, this just looks like a game in which they struggled shooting, and it resulted in a close game that they couldn't quite win in the end. It does, however, make the teams Feb. 11 rematch with Wichita State extremely important. The winner will almost certainly win the MVC regular season.

4. New Mexico (19-4, 10 Pomeroy)
Despite being terrifically overrated by kenpom.com's system (10th is the highest any team has been in the report this year, and its a whopping 13 spots higher than NM was last week), New Mexico does appear to have righted the ship and be very good. Whereas UNLV required overtime to beat both Air Force and Boise State on the road, New Mexico dealt with both teams easily last week, winning by 39 and 16 points, respectively. The Lobos have the 29th best adjusted-offense and 12th best adjusted-defense in the country. That's the good news. The bad news? The next four games are against Wyoming, at San Diego State, home against UNLV, and at Colorado State. Not what one would call a friendly stretch, and it produced New Mexico's only two losses in the Mountain West last time.

3. San Diego State (20-3, 63 Pomeroy)
Despite a 2-0 week, SDSU dropped 10 more spots at kenpom.com, most likely due in large part to a two point squeak-by of Boise State at home. Still, the Aztecs are alone atop the Mountain West again and that is no small feat. The numbers continue to not back up the 20-3 record SDSU is sporting, and yet Steve Fischer's squad keeps on winning, which is why numbers are not all we can look at in sports. New Mexico has a tough stretch coming up but so does San Diego State. First the Aztecs will travel to UNLV for a rematch, and UNLV will be hungry afer losing by two in the first meeting. Then its a home game against New Mexico. Whatever SDSU has accomplished so far, it could fall apart pretty quickly if they don't get up for the next two games. Such is life in the MWC.

2. Saint Mary's (22-2, 26 Pomeroy)
If a tournament were organized of the 10 teams on this list plus the six best mid-major teams after them, I would probably be picking St. Mary's to win it all. Now up to a 12 game winning streak after a rest week with just one game against San Diego last week, the Gaels have been extremely impressive this season. In the latest Bracketology, they were given only a five seed, which seemed too low to me. The good news for the Gaels is they will have two golden opportunities to improve on that seeding in the coming weeks. With games at Gonzaga and Murray State, St. Mary's still has a couple very challenging tests ahead. Can Matthew Dellavedova continue being the best guard on the court when he's matching up against Kevin Pangos and Isaiah Canaan? If so, this team is headed for a two or three seed in the tourney.

1. Murray State (23-0, 61 Pomeroy)
Another week, another couple wins for the Racers, and a further decline in the Ken Pomeroy rankings. Why? Because beating teams like Southest Missouri State and Tennessee-Martin doesn't count for much in those rankings unless the win is by 30 or more. Which is valid. The good news for the Racers is I don't think anyone is buying into that number 61 next to their names. And maybe people are buying in the number 9 assigned to them in the coach's poll either, but they should at least realized Murray State isn't far from there. You just don't get to 23-0 without being really good. Sure, the 309th-ranked strength of schedule might make it easier, but teams like Dayton, Southern Miss, Western Kentucky and Memphis wouldn't take too kindly to you calling them cream puffs. If you're not sold on Murray, just wait another week and a half. Watch the game against Saint Mary's. Even if they lose, I'm guessing you'll be impressed.