Make or Break?

Last week I wrote about the Dayton-Duquesne game, and how it didn't matter that much because UD's NCAA Tournament hopes rested solely on winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Still, I wanted to see the Flyers play hard, play well and win. Well, they did that. And as far as I was concerned, nothing had changed for UD except for the number in its win column this season. Then my brother pointed me to this tweet from Joe Lunardi, saying that UD was closer than maybe we expected to being a tournament team. Flabbergasted, I followed UD's performance while at work that night as it thrashed Massachusetts, 76-43 at home. When I got home, I watched ESPN and got on ESPN.com for the latest Bracketology updates, and couldn't believe my eyes when I saw that Dayton was Lunardi's seventh team out of the tournament--they were his 45th-best candidate to receive an at-large bid. I sort of assumed that Joe had lost his mind, but looking at other brackets, the same was true. UD was just outside the field (in some cases, in it).

So is Dayton's game at Richmond tonight a make or break for the Flyers? No and yes. Winning at Richmond (15-15, 6-9 A-10) will not vault the Flyers into the projected NCAA Tournament field, or even help them bypass a single team in front of them (unless one of those teams loses). But losing to Richmond would certainly spell doom for Dayton's at-large chances (I am still skeptical that these even exist).

That is why tonight's game is so nerve-racking. If there is any type of game that UD has perfected losing, it is this one. An important game against a weak opponent (almost always a conference opponent) that will drastically effect Dayton's place in the A-10 standings one way or another. I don't really want to look to the past for proof, but here goes: at 3-3 in the A-10 last year, Dayton traveled to Duquesne and lost 84-62. After righting the ship the Flyers were 5-4 in A-10 play; they then lost by 14 at Rhode Island. At 7-8 in the conference that year, Dayton played its final game at George Washington and lost 60-58. In the 2009-10 season, UD was 3-1 in the A-10, then lost consecutive games at Saint Joe's and with Rhode Island visiting. At 6-3 in the conference, Dayton lost 68-65 at Saint Louis, then lost on senior night again to the Billikens while sporting an 8-7 record. During the 2007-08 season, Dayton suffered some injuries after starting 2-0 in the conference. In then lost at home to UMass, 82-71. After recovering somewhat and getting to 4-4, Dayton lost consecutive games at George Washington and home to Duquesne. Are you getting the picture? (Too bad if you aren't, because I'm slamming my head against the desk as I'm writing this. For my own safety, we aren't reliving any more devastation). All three of those teams were on and off the bubble throughout the second half of the season. I believe each of them had the talent to make the big dance, but none of them did.

This year's team is not the same in terms of style of play, but in terms of wins and losses the similarities are striking. At 2-0 in the A-10, Dayton lost at St. Bonaventure. At 4-1, the Flyers forgot how to play defense and lost three straight to weaker teams (St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne) and then one more at a good St. Louis team. Like in past years, it is not unreasonable to say that a win instead of a loss in any of Dayton's A-10 defeats would barely change the team's record, but it would make the team's resume look significantly better. This year's team would be 19-9, and in a third-place tie at 9-5 in the conference. It's just one game, but doesn't 19-9, 9-5 look worlds better than 18-10, 8-6. It does to me. Not to mention that it would take a bad loss of of UD's resume.

Perhaps the most annoying thing about this season as it has turned out, though, is a game we all expected UD to lose. When UD lost 86-83 in overtime at Xavier Feb. 18th, I think it's fair to say most UD fans were disappointed that the team had come so close and lost, but not surprised that Dayton had lost. But now, Xavier has had an extremely rocky second half of the season, and according to Lunardi, is outside the field of 68 just like UD. Essentially this means that a win at Xavier could have (would likely have?) put Dayton in charge of its own tournament destiny, and all but eliminated Xavier's chances. How sweet would that have been? About 150,000 times sweeter than when Brian Roberts dropped 30 points on Pittsburgh.

Sorry, I got carried away there. There's no point in getting caught up in the past. Because tonight, Dayton plays a game that is just as important as that one at Xavier was. Kris Mooney and Richmond have had Dayton's number the past couple years. Last year, it was Richmond that denied Dayton a surprise bid to the tournament by beating them in the A-10 Tourney Championship. But this has been a rebuilding year for the Spiders. It's time for the Flyers to jump on them and take advantage. The committee just might be watching.

Dayton's last stand

See CJ staring up at the clock? That's because he knows time is running out.

With six games to play, Dayton sits at 15-9 on the season and 5-5 in the Atlantic 10, good for eighth place in the conference. You might note that is more or less the position Dayton has finished in the conference standings the past couple years, and it is more or less the position they appear to be headed for again. Dayton's final six games consist of three games they will be favored to win (tonight against Charlotte, at Richmond and versus George Washington) and three games you would figure they will have their hands full (at Xavier, at Duquesne and versus Massachusetts).

But let's pretend for a second that despite their weary legs, lack of defense and poor depth, the Flyers manage to catch fire one more time, and start playing the way they did when they ran through Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Temple, LaSalle and Xavier en route to a 4-1 start in the A-10. Would a 21-9 record be enough to get Dayton a shot at an at-large bid? The team's resume going into the A-10 tournament would look something like this:

Record: 21-9, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: ~50
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x), Temple, Saint Louis, Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss (I'm not saying all of these actually are great wins, but they would be advertised as such)
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

That looks to me to be one of the more perplexing tournament resumes one could possibly look at. My first thought, if I didn't know who the team was, would be to figure that they had either drastically improved or fallen off over the course of the season, with the nice wins either coming early or late. But that's not been the case with this Dayton team. The quality wins and bad losses have been sprinkled evenly over the course of the season. My gut looking at the resume says no, this team would not be one deserving of an at-large. But to make sure, I took a look at the final teams to receive at-large bids over the last three years and compared them to this year's UD team. However, one final adjustment had to be made. The final at-large bids (seeds 10,11 and 12) contained teams from power-6 conferences and non-power conferences alike. In looking at the records of power-6 teams that received 11 or 12 seeds (almost certainly the type of seed Dayton would receive this year because they would likely be a First Four team), it was clear that those teams' strengths of schedule played a large difference in them getting recognition. None of those teams had 20-win seasons. UD's best possible record without 20 wins would be 19-11, and no matter who they beat, I think we can agree an at-large bid would be out of the question.

So, I decided just to look at the mid-major schools to receive at-large bids near the end of the draw. Here are their resumes:

2009
Dayton
Record: 26-7, 11-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: 27
Quality Wins: George Mason, Xavier, Temple
Bad Losses: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Saint Louis (iffy whether that's a bad loss)

2010
Texas-El Paso
Record: 26-6, 15-1 Conference-USA
RPI: 39
Quality Wins: Houston
Bad Losses: none

Utah State
Record: 27-7, 14-2 WAC
RPI: 42
Quality Wins: BYU, New Mexico State
Bad Losses: Long Beach State, Louisiana Tech

2011
UAB
Record: 22-8, 12-4 Conference-USA
RPI: 31
Quality Wins: Arkansas? VCU?
Bad Losses: East Carolina, Southern Miss, Tulsa

VCU
Record: 23-11, 11-6 Colonial (believe it or not, they did play 17 conference games)
RPI: 49
Quality Wins: Wichita State, Old Dominion, UCLA
Bad Losses: South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern, James Madison

And here we are. A quick look at those resumes compared to UD says Dayton has no chance of an at-large. Sure, they have more quality wins by far than any team on that list, but they also have more quality losses, a worse RPI, and a worse conference and overall record than most.

However, it's important to keep in mind that Dayton wouldn't be finished at 21-9. The A-10 Tournament would still be looming large. And at 11-5 in the conference, a 4-5 seed is the most likely placement. Let's give Dayton a five seed so they play one more round. That would mean UD would have the possibility of three more wins and a loss (four wins would mean they win the automatic bid). In our continuation of the best-case scenario, UD would finish the season 24-10. And with a couple wins over some of the better A-10 competition, its RPI could improve to somewhere like 45. Now take a look at the resume:

24-10, 11-5 A-10
RPI: 45
Quality Wins: Xavier (2x(Maybe 3x)), Temple (Maybe 2x), Saint Louis (Maybe 2x), Minnesota, Alabama, Ole Miss
Bad Losses: Miami (OH), Buffalo, St. Bonaventure, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne

The volume of bad losses still looms large, but does that resume look similar to any of the ones we showed above? How about last year's tournament darlings, the VCU Rams? 24-10 vs. 23-11, 11-5 vs. 11-6. 45 RPI vs. 49. Quality wins over mostly good mid-major teams, and several head-scratching bad losses. Not to mention that VCU finished its regular season losing four of five games before making it to the CAA Tournament final. In our projected scenario, UD would be on a nine game win streak before losing in the final. Sounds better to me.

Here's the thing, though: VCU had no business making the tournament last year. I know, I know, "they proved they deserved the bid with their play over the next three weeks". Woopty-doo, Basil. They hadn't earned their place there. They didn't have that great of a season until the tournament. But that is the opportunity the First Four provides. With three more bids in play, there is just a sliver of opportunity for a not-so-great team to sneak in if somebody on the selection committee makes the right argument.

In conclusion, If UD wins its next nine games, starting tonight against Charlotte, and then loses in the A-10 Championship Game, it will still only have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament. So Go Flyers!

I'll book my tickets for the CBI.