Mid-Major Report: 2/13

Upheaval! The strength at the top of the Mid-Major Report this season has been staggering, as several teams had put together significant win-streaks to get to the top and stay there for most of the season. Well, there's a new world order as we stare into the face of Bracketbusters week. Five of the top six teams from last week's report lost games this week. And with that, the top ten has been shaken like never before this season. The temptation was strong to drop four teams from the rankings this week so we could talk about a bunch of deserving newcomers, but that would have been ridiculous. Saint Mary's still deserves to be here So get ready to see some familiar faces, but in a whole new light. As always, you can refer to the first report of the year for information on how these rankings are achieved.

Dropped Out: Southern Miss (1-1 last week, last at 10-14 UAB)
Outside looking in: Drexel, VCU, George Mason, Saint Louis, Long Beach State

10. Creighton (21-5, 35th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Creighton is barely alive in this week's rankings after having a stranglehold on the top five all-season long. The Blue Jay's have now lost an almost inexplicable three games in a row. Their loss at Northern Iowa two weeks ago was not shocking; teams are almost always eventually going to lose a game like that when they don't play their best. But Creighton followed that up with a loss at Evansville and then a turd of a performance at home against Wichita State. In the process, they all but surrendered the Missouri Valley Conference title to the Shockers. It really has been a stunning turn of events, since the Blue Jays had easily beaten Wichita at Wichita over a month ago, and had looked just as good until February reared its head. Creighton is sporting one of the best offenses in the country, but that offense didn't show up at the same level against Northern Iowa and Evansville, and then when it was slightly better at home against Wichita State, the Blue Jays' 135-ranked adjusted-defense was exposed in giving up 89 points. Now, it's time for the Jays to draw a line in the sand. Continue free-falling, and they could unbelievably find themselves on the bubble. Right the ship, and they're still a comfortable six or seven seed.

9. Harvard (21-3, 37 Pomeroy)
Princeton got the best of Harvard again. What is up with this rivalry, that no matter how good Harvard seems to be, the Tigers have their number? Certainly, Princeton played well, shooting 50 percent from the field and going 17-24 from the foul line to Harvard's 7-11. The loss make's Harvard's situation with the NCAA Tournament much more precarious. Now with just a one-game lead in the Ivy League, losing the conference championship (the Ivy League does not hold a tournament) seems much more possible now, and would put Harvard in a similar situation to last year, when it did not receive an at-large bid. This team has gotten more recognition since the beginning of the season than last year's team did, since it was coming off a good season already. Harvard will have that going for it, but will it be enough? Probably best to just recover and win the next three games at home against Yale, Princeton and Penn, and secure the title.

8. Temple (19-5, 36 Pomeroy)
The Atlantic 10 is once again represented in the top 10. Temple sat just outside the rankings last week because despite a six-game win streak in the conference, they hadn't really beaten any of the teams that matter. Well, now that streak is up to eight, and with an easy dismantling of Xavier added to their resume, the Owls get the nod. Temple looks to be hitting its stride at the right time with Ryan Moore (18.8 ppg) and Khalif Wyatt (16.7) leading the way in scoring. Temple's 1-2 punch, along with the unflappable Juan Fernandez, gives them the 16th-best adjusted-offense in the country. And in typical Temple fashion, the Owls haven't shied away from tough competition this year. They have the 21st-rated strength of schedule in the country. And at 19-5 against that kind of competition, the Owls are to be taken seriously.

7. Murray State (24-1, 68 Pomeroy)
The Racers' six week run atop the Mid-Major Report is over. With a loss to Tennessee State at home, Murray State drops six spots in this week's poll. It was a bad loss, no question. And most writers have been chalking it up to the pressure of an undefeated season. Ken Pomeroy was bothered by this, and expressed as much in a post on his website. And while he doesn't discount the possibility of pressure playing a factor, he says the biggest reason they lost is more likely because win probabilities said there was no expectation of them continuing to win ("You play enough games in which you are heavily favored, and you are going to lose eventually. Put more precisely, a team that plays ten games as a 90% favorite is expected to lose once during that span, and the Racers have played a lot of such games this season, including the game against Tennessee State.") In my mind, the numbers guy's explanation and the feelings guys' explanations are two different ways of saying the same thing: It's really, really hard to go undefeated over the course of a college basketball season. And that's why Murray was No. 1 for as long as it was. By the way, after the loss, Murray won by 19.

6. San Diego State (20-4, 55 Pomeroy)
Any doubts we may have had about San Diego State due to their poor rating at kenpom.com should have been alleviated this week, when they came within a bucket of going 2-0 against UNLV this season. Actually, the team ratings back me up on this one. The UNLV game was SDSU's only game last week, and by losing they improved eight spots at kenpom.com from a week ago. Go figure. Playing a team highly rated by his system very closely will do that for you. Seriously, though, there should be no doubting the Aztecs from here on out. They are extremely talented and athletic, can run the floor and shoot the ball well. No doubt in my mind that they are a top 15 team in the country (as in a legitimate Elite Eight threat).

5. Brigham Young (21-6, 31 Pomeroy)
For the first time this season, BYU didn't fall out of the rankings the week after breaking into them. This is BYU's third stint in the Mid-Major Report, and during each of the previous two, they suffered losses to fall out immediately. Not this week. With a 38-point win over a bad Pepperdine squad, the Cougars extended their win-streak to three. Their 20th-rated adjusted-defense will be put to the test on the road next week; BYU plays its next three games on the road, including a huge game for them at Gonzaga. BYU has very little chance of winning the WCC, but a great shot at of improving its seeding come tournament time.

4. Saint Mary's (23-3, 32 Pomeroy)
Despite a loss at Gonzaga last week, there's no need to panic about St. Mary's. That's because it wasn't all that surprising of a loss. Gonzaga is very good; Gonzaga is a tough place to play; St. Mary's had won 12 in a row going into the game. The Gaels are still, like San Diego State, a threat to beat anybody in the country on a given day. They have the 14th-best adjusted-offense in the country, and average better than 16 assists per game. Yeah, the loss hurts just a bit, but with a Bracketbusters game at Murray State upcoming, as well as the WCC Tournament looming, the Gaels have plenty of time to do some damage and secure an excellent seed in the tournament.

3. Wichita State (22-4, 9 Pomeroy)
The Shockers have been ranked almost comically high at kenpom.com all year, but after dominating Creighton Saturday, they have set the new standard. A top-10 spot! I will say this, however, on their behalf: during the Creighton game Wichita State actually looked worthy of being so highly rated (maybe not top 10, but definitely top 20). The Shockers took a lead in the first half and never looked back, turning in a splendid offensive performance. They now have the ninth-rated adjusted-offense, 24th adjusted-defense, and 72nd best strength of schedule. Oh yeah, and they're in the driver's seat to win the MVC title now. Like Temple, they appear to be playing their best basketball of the season at a good time to do it.

2. New Mexico (20-4, 12 Pomeroy)
The Lobos are another team that play exactly to Ken Pomeroy's specifications, coming in this week with an obscenely high ranking of 12. Of course, you now know if you didn't before that New Mexico is the one team out of the top six from last week to avoid a loss. But with wins over Boise State and Wyoming (in which NM scored just 48 points), it wasn't enough to get them the top spot. Really, the reason New Mexico didn't make the cut is I'm being cautious with them once again. They climbed to fifth in the Jan. 17 Mid-Major Report, and promptly went 0-2 the following week against
San Diego State and UNLV. Well, guess who they've got coming up this week? Yup. At San Diego State and home against UNLV. Prove to me that you've changed this time around, New Mexico.

1. UNLV (22-4, 22 Pomeroy)
That's right. From No. 7 to No. 1. UNLV was that impressive (or maybe 1-6 from last week were just the opposite). Either way, anybody who watched the SDSU-UNLV game Saturday had to come away impressed by Vegas. They've got it all (except for maybe a consistent big man), and they have a player in Mike Moser who has it all individually: size, athleticism, length, speed, shooting ability, ball-handling. He was the best player on a court full of pretty excellent players. In the Mountain West Conference, clearly the best non-power-6 conference in the country, there is a three-way tie atop the league. San Diego State has lost two games by a combined 19 points. New Mexico has lost two games by a combined 12 points. And UNLV has lost two games by a combined four points (both on the road). Clearly at the moment, they've got the best resume of the group.

Mid-Major Report: 1/23

We're back on track with a Monday edition of the Mid-Major Report. There has been plenty of activity in the polls since last week's edition, and as conference play has kicked in and more teams have played tough home and road games, shakeups have continued. As always, refer to the first report of the season for information on how these rankings are determined.

After last week's edition, I received a request to list the teams that fell out of the rankings because it was difficult to keep track of which teams had lost their spots to newcomers. Well, ask and you shall receive. I'll add a quick blurb before the rankings start listing the teams that are just on the outside looking in, and the teams that dropped out and why. Without further ado, here they are.

Dropped Out: New Mexico (0-2 on the week, losses to UNLV and SDSU), BYU (14-point loss at home to Loyola Marymount)
Outside looking in: Dayton, Weber State, Nevada, George Mason, Southern Miss, Central Florida

10. Iona (15-4, 56th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings)
The Gaels of Iona are back in the 10th position after a week's hiatus. They hiccuped in a MAAC game against Manhattan (losing 75-72), but rebounded with 11 and 20-point home wins this week. The reason for the Gaels beating out other contenders for the final spot was due to their still-impressive offensive numbers. The Gaels are second in the country in scoring, first in assists per game, and fourth in field goal percentage. That allowed the Gaels to beat out Dayton, which only played one game last week.

9. Harvard (16-2, 38 Pomeroy)
Harvard makes its long-awaited return to the rankings as well this week. The Crimson has been hovering just outside the top 10 ever since its Jan. 3 loss at Fordham. After four straight wins however, Harvard is back. Harvard is among the country's best defensive teams, ranked 22nd in Adjusted defense on kenpom.com. The team also has an early season win over Florida State that is looking better and better as the Seminoles have beaten North Carolina and Duke in ACC play. While winning the Ivy League seems almost like an afterthought at the moment, if it weren't to happen because Yale or Penn got hot and went on a run, Harvard looks like it has an outside shot at an at-large bid.

8. Oral Roberts (16-4, 65 Pomeroy)
What's not to like about the Golden Eagles this season? With a nice win over Oakland last week, Oral Roberts extended its winning streak to 11 games. Three of the team's four losses are at West Virginia, at Oklahoma and at Gonzaga. They shoot the ball almost 48 percent from the field as a team, and have the 24th best adjusted offense in the country. The Summit League may not be especially tough, but a 10-0 mark in the league is never a number to sneer at. What's more, the Golden Eagles have already beaten the second place team (South Dakota State, 8-1 in the league) in their first matchup this year. This team is for real.

7. Middle Tennessee (19-2, 30 Pomeroy)
With double-digit wins against Arkansas State and at South Alabama, the train just kept on rolling at Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have now won 11 in a row, and are 8-0 in the Sun Belt conference. Perhaps most impressively, their games last week were good enough to jump 13 spots in the team rankings at kenpom.com from the last Mid-Major report. If the 13 spots were from 250 to 237, it wouldn't be as noteworthy. But 43 to 30? That suggests this team is well worth giving a look. Middle Tennessee is a team worth rooting for the rest of the year, because in a weak year for the Sun Belt conference (only four teams over .500 on the season), it will almost certainly be a one-bid conference. If that team isn't Middle Tennessee, it would be a shame.

6. UNLV (18-3, 17 Pomeroy)
The toughest decision made in these rankings was between the No. 6 and 5 teams for the week. UNLV and Wichita State are sporting extremely similar numbers for the year. Ultimately, UNLV lost out due to a more recent loss (even though it was to San Diego State). Still, sixth right now is nothing to be ashamed of. the Rebels are still sporting one of the top offenses in the country (81.5 points per game, 18.7 assists per game, ninth best adjusted offense) and secured the biggest win of the weak among all our contenders for the Mid-Major report. With a 17-point win over Mountain West contender New Mexico (in which UNLV was in control most of the game), UNLV let us all know that their non-conference performance was no fluke, and they'll be looking for vengeance when SDSU comes to town later in the year.

5. Wichita State (17-3, 9 Pomeroy)
Wichita delivered two more wins (at Northern Iowa, and a 43-point thrashing of Southern Illinois at home) and has now won seven in a row, with its lone conference blemish coming at the hands of Creighton. They have some extremely impressive numbers on kenpom.com, beyond the ninth team-ranking (which was largely helped this week by the 43-point win). The Shockers are 13th best in both adjusted offense and defense, are top-40 in points per game, rebounds per game and field goal percentage, and have a decent strength of schedule at 76th. Unless they fall apart, they would appear to be headed toward an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. And with continued strong play and a possible win at Creighton Feb. 11, they could be looking at a Missouri Valley Conference title.

4. Saint Mary's (19-2, 25 Pomeroy)
It was a relatively easy weak of games for Saint Mary's (versus Pepperdine and at Santa Clara), but the Gaels took care of business as they've been doing all year and have now won nine in a row. Saint Mary's is 8-0 in the West Coast Conference this year, no easy feat. The Gaels are top-35 in points and assists per game and shoot 48 percent from the field. Upcoming is a tough game at BYU, a team that would figure to be hungry after a disappointing loss to Loyola Marymount.

3. Creighton (18-2, 27 Pomeroy)
A change near the top! If you've been a follower of this blog, you'll know that No. 3 is Creighton's lowest ranking so far. And while last week the Blue Jays went 2-0 and avenged their lone Missouri Valley loss of the season (a 77-65 loss to Missouri State, avenged 66-65 at Missouri State), they dropped another spot due to the significant recent achievements of the No. 2 team. No reason to fret for Blue Jays fans, though. Creighton is still top-10 in points per game, assists per game and field goal percentage, and is still in the driver's seat to win the MVC regular season.

2. San Diego State (17-2, 55 Pomeroy)'
The team rankings at kenpom.com have received a great deal of flack this year for rating Wisconsin in the top-five almost all year, even when the Badgers lost three out of four games. Pomeroy addressed the situation saying he was frustrated by it, but that the Badgers represented an outlier whose results have managed to "beat" his system this season. I believe that, which is why I still use his rankings and information in this blog and for these reports. However, I would submit San Diego State as another team that has unfortunately "beaten" (or perhaps more accurately, fallen victim to) Pomeroy's rating system. At 17-2 and 3-0 in the Mountain West with wins over UNLV and at New Mexico, I don't think there is any debate that SDSU is better than the 55th-best team in the country. The Aztecs have been the most impressive of any team on this list in the past two weeks, notching the biggest wins of any team in consecutive weeks. Their numbers still don't jump off the page at you (66th in points per game, 44th in rebounding), but that's exactly why we can't be a slave to those sort of things. For now, the Aztecs are a dominant mid-major team, numbers or not.

1. Murray State (20-0, 42 Pomeroy)
The Racers won two more road games last week, at Morehead State and at SIU-Edwardsville. Both of those teams are bad, but Murray took care of business, as it has done all year long. Now the last unbeaten team in all of college basketball, Murray State did last week what Syracuse couldn't: win on the road. And while Notre Dame is always pretty good at home, Morehead State is always going to be a tough rivarly game for the Racers (They have been the best two teams in the OVC since seemingly forever, although not this year). And for that, the Racers deserve some respect. Here, they'll get it.