Sweet 16 Friday Primer

While yesterday's picks for the games resulted in just s 2-2 performance (Syracuse and Ohio State being the ones I got correct), I will also pat myself on the back for correctly prescribing the formula for Louisville to win. The Cardinals got their defense on and played a game in the 50s (in Michigan State's case, the 40s), and turned in an impressive win. Kudos to Florida for totally proving me wrong. Billy Donovan's crew dominated Marquette in the second half, outplaying and out-hustling them. Some better shooting from Marquette would have made that game closer down the stretch, but I don't think the result would have been different. Florida was the better team Thursday night. And in a best of one series, sometimes being on your game on a given night is what matters most.

Xavier vs. Baylor, 7:15 p.m.
On paper this looks like an easy win for Baylor. Baylor is the superior team physically and is still waiting on a good game in the tournament from its best player, Perry Jones III. But you can never really count Xavier out, can you? Four Sweet 16s in the past five years. It makes me sick to hear about it, because this year Xavier shouldn't have even been in the tournament. A Matt Kavanaugh layup would have done the trick. But Xavier survived that game, and then survived Notre Dame and beat Lehigh. I do not like giving praise to the Musketeers, but somehow, they get into this type of situation year after year. And Baylor is a soft, vulnerable team. Xavier may not be likable, but they are definitely not soft. Gangsta and "zippin' 'em up" jokes aside, this is a tough team. And they have a guy who lives for the moment in Holloway. If the Bears come out the least bit lackadaisical, you can bet that Xavier will jump all over them, and that could all there is to this game. One would hope, however, that a team of college basketball players can find motivation to play hard in a Sweet 16 game, regardless of its opponent. I think Baylor does that, and we're finally done with Holloway in college basketball.

Ohio vs. North Carolina, 7:47 p.m.
In any given year of college basketball, if Ohio University were playing North Carolina in one of the early season tournaments held at a neutral site, like the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, most everyone would look at the names of the teams, think, "that's going to be a blowout," and probably not watch the game. Just because this is a Sweet 16 game does not mean it should be approached any differently. To get here Ohio has done some great things, and its game against South Florida in the third round was an extremely fun one to watch, but this is North Carolina. Kendall Marshall or not, they are superior to the Bobcats in every way. They can put out a front line of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, James Michael McAdoo and Harrison Barnes. How exactly is OU going to compete with that? They aren't. It's been a great ride for OU, but don't feel bad if you end up changing the channel or starting your Friday night pregame early in lieu of finishing this game.

Indiana vs. Kentucky, 9:45 p.m.
If the three games listed so far go the right way, March 23, 2012 will be the greatest NCAA Tournament night of my life in which a team I was rooting for didn't win the National Championship. Unfortunately, it is much more likely that Kentucky, North Carolina and Xavier will all win than it is that they will all lose. Of course, the pundits have reminded us a couple hundred thousand times that Indiana is responsible for Kentucky's sole loss this season. So sure, perhaps that will give IU some confidence heading into the game. But let's dissect how likely a repeat is for the Hoosiers. First off, that game was a home game for Indiana. This will be played on a neutral court. For anyone who will be watching his/her first basketball game tonight, that makes more than a small difference. In addition, it was a game in which Indiana possessed a hefty lead, but saw it vanish in no time when Kentucky flexed its muscle in the second half. And finally, it took a buzzer-beater from beyond the arc to secure the victory. Basically, it was the type of thing that only happens a couple times a season for a team, and it was only able to happen because Indiana had played a great game in its home gym on that day. To me, this has 15-20 point UK win written all over it. Then again, there hasn't been a single buzzer-beater all tournament long, so maybe...

North Carolina State vs. Kansas, 10:17 p.m.
This looks like the most intriguing matchup of the night. NC State has been playing excellent basketball, mainly through its big men, since the ACC Tournament. If not for a missed call on an offensive foul, the Wolfpack would have played for the ACC title, and had a great shot at beating Florida State. Since then, they've been dominant in the NCAA Tournament. They dispatched a very good San Diego State easily by executing a good game plan to perfection. But that was by exploiting a size advantage against the Aztecs. In the third round, NC State proved the win was no fluke by beating Georgetown and Henry Sims, a pretty good big man in his own right. Now, things only get tougher. The NC State front line will have to deal with Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey of Kansas, perhaps the best duo in the country (Zeller and Henson from UNC would be the other option). Kansas is coming off a lackluster performance against Purdue, but the Jayhawks survived Robbie Hummel's last stand. If Tyshawn Taylor and Robinson can get back on track and deliver typically strong games in the Sweet 16, my gut says Kansas is too good for NC State. But if they're a bit underwhelming again? We'll have an 11 seed in the Elite Eight for the second straight year.

Sweet 16 Thursday Primer

Gone already are the days in which we are treated to deciding between watching CBS, TNT, TruTV and TBS because four basketball games are playing all at once. Today we get just four games total. Lucky for the people who will make the decision to keep watching, they should be some pretty good games.

Wisconsin vs. Syracuse, 7:15 p.m.
Does anyone have a handle on what's going to happen in this game? There's no way to know which version of either of these teams is going to show up tonight. Wisconsin was the team that ratings systems like Kenpom and Sagarin loved to love, but basketball fans loved to hate all season. They were rated highly, but in their play we saw a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team. But in two games in the NCAA Tournament, the Badgers have looked more the former than the latter. They thrashed a good Montana team in the first round, and then shut down Vanderbilt's best players (and therefore offense) to squash the Commodores. Now they get Syracuse, a team that is certainly better than them. But Syracuse has looked like two completely different teams in the tournament. In the first round against UNC-Asheville, the Orange were bad, playing too fast like they were panicked, and didn't shoot well on top of it. In the third round against Kansas State, they got back to basics, and Fab Melo or not, looked like the well-balanced, deep team that showed up for the entire regular season.
So which teams will show up? I think the Syracuse that played against Kansas State will be the one we see tonight. And while Wisconsin has long been the best team in the country in turning games ugly, I think even if this game goes that way, Syracuse's athleticism and depth will carry it to triumph in the end. I see the Orange build an eight to ten point lead, and then Wisconsin can never quite close that gap.

Louisville at Michigan State, 7:47 p.m.
Louisville and Michigan State come into this game as two of the hottest teams in the country; both won their conference tournament championships and have obviously followed that up by taking care of business with two wins to get the Sweet 16. Now they will run into each other. On paper to me, this one looks relatively easy. Michigan State matches up much better with Louisville than the other way around. They have the big men to go toe-to-toe with the Cardinals' bigs, and Keith Appling is just as good (probably better) than Peyton Siva, who has been a big source of offense for Louisville recently. That doesn't even take Draymond Green into account. Michigan State's point-power forward is one of the toughest matchups in the country, and Louisville would appear to be poorly suited to guard him; I'm curious to see who is going to have to take the assignment. This seems like the type of thing that could turn into a situation like the Thunder playing the Mavericks in last year's NBA Playoffs, and the Thunder experimenting with what seemed like its entire roster to find someone to guard Dirk Nowitzki. Long story short--none of them worked. The Mavs won. I think the same will happen for the Spartans. Louisville's best chance lies in turning this game into a grinder in the 50s, and having its team defense dictate what happens all game long.

Cincinnati vs. Ohio State
Without question the most anticipated game on Thursday, Cincy-OSU presents a very interesting matchup. Even beyond the mutual hatred between the programs, this looks interesting. Jared Sullinger has not been as dominant as expected this season, and when he has had poor or frustrating games, he has gotten pouty and quit all year. It has been special to watch, because when that happens, Ohio State usually loses. If UC is going to make it to the Elite Eight, that is its most likely route--through a down-in-the-dumps Sully. Luckily for the Bearcats, Yancy Gates is playing unbelievably well and has the size and skills to perhaps piss Sullinger off enough. If "Sulkinger" comes into play, Ohio State is going to need William Buford to start playing well again. The senior has been a bit of a disappointment at times this year. He is an extremely talented scorer, but has poor shooting days way too often. Ohio State is going to need the version of him that hit the game-winner against Michigan State in the regular season's final game. If the Buckeyes get that, they're going to be tough to beat period, let alone in this game.

Florida vs. Marquette
Is Florida actually a Sweet 16 team? At one point, the Gators almost cracked the top ten in the AP Rankings this season. Then, they lost several games near the end of the season and looked really vulnerable. Then, they destroyed Virginia in the second round of the tournament. In the third round, they were lucky enough to play Norfolk State, which deserves credit for outplaying Missouri, but it was very unlikely that level of play would show up again. Florida dominated again, and here we are. Marquette, on the other hand, looks every bit the part of a Final Four-capable team. The Golden Eagles are playing hard, have a coach that has changed the culture there and has every player buying into giving maximum effort, and they possess two absolute studs in Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom. The fact that I've basically written Florida off in this paragraph, however, makes this feel like a trap game. And given my track record in 2012 for picking tournament games (I have seven of 16 Sweet 16 teams correct in my bracket, the worst I can ever remember doing), maybe my word is not worth taking. But I love the way that Marquette plays, and think Florida has been fortunate to get here. I believe the Gators will be overwhelmed in the nightcap.

Why the Sweet 16 is still worth watching

Today my dad called out to from another room and said, "Isn't this about as bad a Sweet 16 as we could have? Between North Carolina, Kentucky and Xavier all making it, and no mid-majors that have a chance to do anything." He then thought for a moment before adding, "I guess that means I won't have to spend time watching the games."

And while my dad is right, this is a disastrous Sweet 16 for Dayton and Duke fans (exacerbated by the fact that it was Duke's loss to Lehigh in the the Round of 64 that in theory made it easier on Xavier to make the Sweet 16). But when I have the chance, I'll be catching games this Thursday through Sunday, because there are some awesome ones still available. Sorry to all the Bobcat fans out there, but I don't see North Carolina-Ohio as one of them. OU making it to the Sweet 16 is probably the best story of the tournament, but the size of North Carolina looks like something it will be just about impossible for the Bobcats to overcome. A 15-30 type shooting day from the three point line might make a difference, but otherwise, I'd say the ride will be over in Athens. How about NC State vs. Kansas though? North Carolina State has been one of the pleasures to watch in the tournament's first four days, looking like it is on a mission. The Wolfpack big men have been unstoppable, and they will be going up against the best big man in the country this season (numbers wise) in Thomas Robinson from Kansas. Not to mention that T-Rob is pretty entertaining to watch anyway.

And what about the two games opposing each other at the top of the bracket, Kentucky-Indiana and Syracuse-Wisconsin? If UK-IU comes close to the first meeting between the two teams, it'll be worth the price of admission, and Wisconsin finally looks like it is playing the level of basketball it is capable of, while Syracuse righted the ship in the third round against Kansas State. The Orange are never going to be the same team defensively without Fab Melo, but they have the opportunity to be a much more deadly offensive team throughout the game. The Orange are not out of the national title hunt yet.

The bottom line is this: The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight are almost never as fun as the rounds that precede them. The sheer volume of basketball (and therefore number of entertaining games that transpire) that whittles the field from 64 to 16 is difficult to overcome. But the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight still have in them what has always made college basketball the best basketball there is: you get to see these guys lay everything out there. We get to watch these players give it absolutely everything they have, because for most of them, it will be the last Sweet 16 game they play. For the players coming from North Carolina and Kentucky, it will be the last fun, team-oriented basketball they play.

Getting to see guys really care about winning, and going as hard as they can to keep on playing is the best part of this tournament. With perhaps the exception of Kevin Garnett in his first year with the Celtics, stuff like Robbie Hummel's reaction walking off the court and in the press conferences just doesn't happen in pro sports. It's why college basketball will always be the best. It's why I'm going to keep on watching.