Mid-Major Report: 2/13

Upheaval! The strength at the top of the Mid-Major Report this season has been staggering, as several teams had put together significant win-streaks to get to the top and stay there for most of the season. Well, there's a new world order as we stare into the face of Bracketbusters week. Five of the top six teams from last week's report lost games this week. And with that, the top ten has been shaken like never before this season. The temptation was strong to drop four teams from the rankings this week so we could talk about a bunch of deserving newcomers, but that would have been ridiculous. Saint Mary's still deserves to be here So get ready to see some familiar faces, but in a whole new light. As always, you can refer to the first report of the year for information on how these rankings are achieved.

Dropped Out: Southern Miss (1-1 last week, last at 10-14 UAB)
Outside looking in: Drexel, VCU, George Mason, Saint Louis, Long Beach State

10. Creighton (21-5, 35th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Creighton is barely alive in this week's rankings after having a stranglehold on the top five all-season long. The Blue Jay's have now lost an almost inexplicable three games in a row. Their loss at Northern Iowa two weeks ago was not shocking; teams are almost always eventually going to lose a game like that when they don't play their best. But Creighton followed that up with a loss at Evansville and then a turd of a performance at home against Wichita State. In the process, they all but surrendered the Missouri Valley Conference title to the Shockers. It really has been a stunning turn of events, since the Blue Jays had easily beaten Wichita at Wichita over a month ago, and had looked just as good until February reared its head. Creighton is sporting one of the best offenses in the country, but that offense didn't show up at the same level against Northern Iowa and Evansville, and then when it was slightly better at home against Wichita State, the Blue Jays' 135-ranked adjusted-defense was exposed in giving up 89 points. Now, it's time for the Jays to draw a line in the sand. Continue free-falling, and they could unbelievably find themselves on the bubble. Right the ship, and they're still a comfortable six or seven seed.

9. Harvard (21-3, 37 Pomeroy)
Princeton got the best of Harvard again. What is up with this rivalry, that no matter how good Harvard seems to be, the Tigers have their number? Certainly, Princeton played well, shooting 50 percent from the field and going 17-24 from the foul line to Harvard's 7-11. The loss make's Harvard's situation with the NCAA Tournament much more precarious. Now with just a one-game lead in the Ivy League, losing the conference championship (the Ivy League does not hold a tournament) seems much more possible now, and would put Harvard in a similar situation to last year, when it did not receive an at-large bid. This team has gotten more recognition since the beginning of the season than last year's team did, since it was coming off a good season already. Harvard will have that going for it, but will it be enough? Probably best to just recover and win the next three games at home against Yale, Princeton and Penn, and secure the title.

8. Temple (19-5, 36 Pomeroy)
The Atlantic 10 is once again represented in the top 10. Temple sat just outside the rankings last week because despite a six-game win streak in the conference, they hadn't really beaten any of the teams that matter. Well, now that streak is up to eight, and with an easy dismantling of Xavier added to their resume, the Owls get the nod. Temple looks to be hitting its stride at the right time with Ryan Moore (18.8 ppg) and Khalif Wyatt (16.7) leading the way in scoring. Temple's 1-2 punch, along with the unflappable Juan Fernandez, gives them the 16th-best adjusted-offense in the country. And in typical Temple fashion, the Owls haven't shied away from tough competition this year. They have the 21st-rated strength of schedule in the country. And at 19-5 against that kind of competition, the Owls are to be taken seriously.

7. Murray State (24-1, 68 Pomeroy)
The Racers' six week run atop the Mid-Major Report is over. With a loss to Tennessee State at home, Murray State drops six spots in this week's poll. It was a bad loss, no question. And most writers have been chalking it up to the pressure of an undefeated season. Ken Pomeroy was bothered by this, and expressed as much in a post on his website. And while he doesn't discount the possibility of pressure playing a factor, he says the biggest reason they lost is more likely because win probabilities said there was no expectation of them continuing to win ("You play enough games in which you are heavily favored, and you are going to lose eventually. Put more precisely, a team that plays ten games as a 90% favorite is expected to lose once during that span, and the Racers have played a lot of such games this season, including the game against Tennessee State.") In my mind, the numbers guy's explanation and the feelings guys' explanations are two different ways of saying the same thing: It's really, really hard to go undefeated over the course of a college basketball season. And that's why Murray was No. 1 for as long as it was. By the way, after the loss, Murray won by 19.

6. San Diego State (20-4, 55 Pomeroy)
Any doubts we may have had about San Diego State due to their poor rating at kenpom.com should have been alleviated this week, when they came within a bucket of going 2-0 against UNLV this season. Actually, the team ratings back me up on this one. The UNLV game was SDSU's only game last week, and by losing they improved eight spots at kenpom.com from a week ago. Go figure. Playing a team highly rated by his system very closely will do that for you. Seriously, though, there should be no doubting the Aztecs from here on out. They are extremely talented and athletic, can run the floor and shoot the ball well. No doubt in my mind that they are a top 15 team in the country (as in a legitimate Elite Eight threat).

5. Brigham Young (21-6, 31 Pomeroy)
For the first time this season, BYU didn't fall out of the rankings the week after breaking into them. This is BYU's third stint in the Mid-Major Report, and during each of the previous two, they suffered losses to fall out immediately. Not this week. With a 38-point win over a bad Pepperdine squad, the Cougars extended their win-streak to three. Their 20th-rated adjusted-defense will be put to the test on the road next week; BYU plays its next three games on the road, including a huge game for them at Gonzaga. BYU has very little chance of winning the WCC, but a great shot at of improving its seeding come tournament time.

4. Saint Mary's (23-3, 32 Pomeroy)
Despite a loss at Gonzaga last week, there's no need to panic about St. Mary's. That's because it wasn't all that surprising of a loss. Gonzaga is very good; Gonzaga is a tough place to play; St. Mary's had won 12 in a row going into the game. The Gaels are still, like San Diego State, a threat to beat anybody in the country on a given day. They have the 14th-best adjusted-offense in the country, and average better than 16 assists per game. Yeah, the loss hurts just a bit, but with a Bracketbusters game at Murray State upcoming, as well as the WCC Tournament looming, the Gaels have plenty of time to do some damage and secure an excellent seed in the tournament.

3. Wichita State (22-4, 9 Pomeroy)
The Shockers have been ranked almost comically high at kenpom.com all year, but after dominating Creighton Saturday, they have set the new standard. A top-10 spot! I will say this, however, on their behalf: during the Creighton game Wichita State actually looked worthy of being so highly rated (maybe not top 10, but definitely top 20). The Shockers took a lead in the first half and never looked back, turning in a splendid offensive performance. They now have the ninth-rated adjusted-offense, 24th adjusted-defense, and 72nd best strength of schedule. Oh yeah, and they're in the driver's seat to win the MVC title now. Like Temple, they appear to be playing their best basketball of the season at a good time to do it.

2. New Mexico (20-4, 12 Pomeroy)
The Lobos are another team that play exactly to Ken Pomeroy's specifications, coming in this week with an obscenely high ranking of 12. Of course, you now know if you didn't before that New Mexico is the one team out of the top six from last week to avoid a loss. But with wins over Boise State and Wyoming (in which NM scored just 48 points), it wasn't enough to get them the top spot. Really, the reason New Mexico didn't make the cut is I'm being cautious with them once again. They climbed to fifth in the Jan. 17 Mid-Major Report, and promptly went 0-2 the following week against
San Diego State and UNLV. Well, guess who they've got coming up this week? Yup. At San Diego State and home against UNLV. Prove to me that you've changed this time around, New Mexico.

1. UNLV (22-4, 22 Pomeroy)
That's right. From No. 7 to No. 1. UNLV was that impressive (or maybe 1-6 from last week were just the opposite). Either way, anybody who watched the SDSU-UNLV game Saturday had to come away impressed by Vegas. They've got it all (except for maybe a consistent big man), and they have a player in Mike Moser who has it all individually: size, athleticism, length, speed, shooting ability, ball-handling. He was the best player on a court full of pretty excellent players. In the Mountain West Conference, clearly the best non-power-6 conference in the country, there is a three-way tie atop the league. San Diego State has lost two games by a combined 19 points. New Mexico has lost two games by a combined 12 points. And UNLV has lost two games by a combined four points (both on the road). Clearly at the moment, they've got the best resume of the group.

Mid-Major Report: 2/6

We've made it to February, and college basketball is getting wild. Instead of waiting for Bracketbusters games to take place, the mid-majors of the world decided to turn in a crazy slate of results a couple weeks in advance, which will only serve to make the Bracketbusters games more intriguing. Four teams inside the top 10 lost games last week, while several others sitting just outside also suffered losses and cost themselves a shot at making it into the rankings.

As always, refer to the first report of the year for information on how I come up with these rankings.

Dropped Out: Nevada (1-1 last week, lost at home to Idaho), Oral Roberts (1-1, lost at South Dakota State)
Outside looking in: Temple, Long Beach State, Drexel, Cleveland State, VCU

10. Southern Mississippi (20-3, 45th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Southern Miss makes it's glorious return to the top 10 on the wings of a five game win streak in the Conference-USA. The Golden Eagles dispatched Central Florida away from home and avenged their only C-USA loss by beating Memphis last week. With a strong close to the season (one, maybe two more losses), Southern Miss could be looking at an at-large bid (currently a nine-seed in bracketology, but as the automatic bid for C-USA. No telling where they would be if they didn't have the conference lead at the moment). The decision to include Southern Miss over Temple and Long Beach State was a tough one, but since USM's only loss since November was a two-pointer at Memphis, they got the benefit of the doubt.

9. Brigham Young (20-6, 33 Pomeroy)
The Cougars are back after turning in a strong week with the best win of any team in the top 10. After being beaten up by St. Mary's, the Cougars rebounded and beat Gonzaga by 10 and won by 19 at Portland. Two impressive results were enough to get them back into the top 10. Joe Lunardi felt the Cougars did deserved a nod as well, as he moved them into his NCAA Tournament field in the most recent Bracketology. With the excellent front line of forwards Noah Hartsock (17.6 points per game) and Brandon Davies (14.4 ppg and 8 rebounds per game), if BYU can close out the season strong, they'll be primed to make the tournament and perhaps make some noise with an upset or two.

8.. Wichita State (20-4, 16 Pomeroy)
The Shockers took care of business at Missouri State and at home against Indiana State in two close games, and so maintained their ranking for another week. Make no mistake, Wichita is the real deal. I don't know who Wichita State will be playing in the first round of the tournament, but I'm almost certain I'll be picking them to win the game. They are not 16th best in the country, as kenpom.com's team rankings indicate, but they are a top-30 team. They are ranked in the top 50 in the country in most important statistical categories, and are especially well-liked by the advanced metrics like adjusted offense and defense (13th and 25th, respectively). Don't sleep on the Shockers.

7. UNLV (21-4, 18 Pomeroy)
The Rebels stumbled at Wyoming last week, taking a 68-66 defeat after having two great looks to tie/win the game. This came as a pretty disappointing loss after UNLV was looking good to run through the Mountain West right up to its rematch with San Diego State. But after the loss to Wyoming, I have a bit of concern about the Rebels' ability to win on the road. Despite a nice road win at Illinois earlier in the year, all four of UNLV's losses have come on the road, and they've needed overtime to beat UC Santa-Barbara, Air Force and Boise State away from home. Not exactly some top competition there. Luckily for UNLV, you don't have to win on the road to win in the NCAA Tournament, and they will be there. They might do well to go for some wins in their remaining road games at New Mexico, Texas Christian and Colorado State, though, or it could kill their seeding.

6. Harvard (20-2, 38 Pomeroy)
Coming in at sixth and back in the Top 25 of the coaches poll is Harvard. Now riding an eight game win streak, the Crimson are still undefeated in the Ivy League and have a tiebreak advantage to pad their one-game lead over second-place Yale. Avoiding a hiccup at Pennsylvania will be key for Harvard in the upcoming week. Penn was the team that undid Harvard's season a year ago, and they will be looking to bring some of the same magic to this matchup. Harvard's defense is still among the best in the country (21st in adjusted-defense), and kept it up against Cornell and Columbia last week, holding the opponents to 60 and 52 points.

5. Creighton (21-3, 24 Pomeroy)
The Blue Jays lost a second game in the Missouri Valley Conference and are now tied with Wichita State with a game still to play against the Shockers. Creighton's decline with a loss this week was not as precipitous as some drops in the past in these rankings because it came on a buzzer-beater away from home. A quick look at Creighton's 65-62 loss at Northern Iowa and it looks more like a fluke than an indication of Creighton being exposed. The top team in the country for field-goal percentage at 51.2 percent, Creighton shot just 42.1 percent at Northern Iowa and scored 62 points, compared to its season average of 81 per game (sixth in the country). Similar to the Blue Jays' Dec. 28 loss to Missouri State, this just looks like a game in which they struggled shooting, and it resulted in a close game that they couldn't quite win in the end. It does, however, make the teams Feb. 11 rematch with Wichita State extremely important. The winner will almost certainly win the MVC regular season.

4. New Mexico (19-4, 10 Pomeroy)
Despite being terrifically overrated by kenpom.com's system (10th is the highest any team has been in the report this year, and its a whopping 13 spots higher than NM was last week), New Mexico does appear to have righted the ship and be very good. Whereas UNLV required overtime to beat both Air Force and Boise State on the road, New Mexico dealt with both teams easily last week, winning by 39 and 16 points, respectively. The Lobos have the 29th best adjusted-offense and 12th best adjusted-defense in the country. That's the good news. The bad news? The next four games are against Wyoming, at San Diego State, home against UNLV, and at Colorado State. Not what one would call a friendly stretch, and it produced New Mexico's only two losses in the Mountain West last time.

3. San Diego State (20-3, 63 Pomeroy)
Despite a 2-0 week, SDSU dropped 10 more spots at kenpom.com, most likely due in large part to a two point squeak-by of Boise State at home. Still, the Aztecs are alone atop the Mountain West again and that is no small feat. The numbers continue to not back up the 20-3 record SDSU is sporting, and yet Steve Fischer's squad keeps on winning, which is why numbers are not all we can look at in sports. New Mexico has a tough stretch coming up but so does San Diego State. First the Aztecs will travel to UNLV for a rematch, and UNLV will be hungry afer losing by two in the first meeting. Then its a home game against New Mexico. Whatever SDSU has accomplished so far, it could fall apart pretty quickly if they don't get up for the next two games. Such is life in the MWC.

2. Saint Mary's (22-2, 26 Pomeroy)
If a tournament were organized of the 10 teams on this list plus the six best mid-major teams after them, I would probably be picking St. Mary's to win it all. Now up to a 12 game winning streak after a rest week with just one game against San Diego last week, the Gaels have been extremely impressive this season. In the latest Bracketology, they were given only a five seed, which seemed too low to me. The good news for the Gaels is they will have two golden opportunities to improve on that seeding in the coming weeks. With games at Gonzaga and Murray State, St. Mary's still has a couple very challenging tests ahead. Can Matthew Dellavedova continue being the best guard on the court when he's matching up against Kevin Pangos and Isaiah Canaan? If so, this team is headed for a two or three seed in the tourney.

1. Murray State (23-0, 61 Pomeroy)
Another week, another couple wins for the Racers, and a further decline in the Ken Pomeroy rankings. Why? Because beating teams like Southest Missouri State and Tennessee-Martin doesn't count for much in those rankings unless the win is by 30 or more. Which is valid. The good news for the Racers is I don't think anyone is buying into that number 61 next to their names. And maybe people are buying in the number 9 assigned to them in the coach's poll either, but they should at least realized Murray State isn't far from there. You just don't get to 23-0 without being really good. Sure, the 309th-ranked strength of schedule might make it easier, but teams like Dayton, Southern Miss, Western Kentucky and Memphis wouldn't take too kindly to you calling them cream puffs. If you're not sold on Murray, just wait another week and a half. Watch the game against Saint Mary's. Even if they lose, I'm guessing you'll be impressed.

Mid-Major Report: 1/31

Here we are at the end of January, and we suffered a major shake-up in the past seven days of basketball at the mid-major level. Several teams lost their first games in weeks, others looking to crack the top-10 fell apart, and with the announcement of the Bracketbusters games yesterday, it's looking like we could be in for some crazy results later in the year. As always, refer to the first report of the year for information on how these rankings are determined.

Dropped out: Iona (2-1 on the week, lost at Siena), Middle Tennessee (1-1, lost at Vanderbilt)
Outside looking in: Long Beach State, Southern Miss Drexel, Cleveland State, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth

10. Nevada (18-3, 90th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings)
The Wolfpack have been hovering outside the top 10 since the very first mid-major report, mainly because they have not beaten anybody good this year (the team's three losses have come in its three toughest tests against Missouri State, UNLV and BYU). But riding a 15-game winning streak, Nevada saw enough teams stumble in the past week to crack our list. In both classic and advanced statistics, the Wolfpack look mediocre at best. The only category on either ESPN or kenpom.com in which they rank better than 80th is in "luck" at kenpom. This is a stat meant to communicate how much a team has positively deviated from its expectation based on his other statistics. So with the sixth best "luck" rating in the country, Nevada would have been expected to have three or four more losses by now. But they don't. And with 15 in a row and 18-3, the Wolfpack are exactly where they belong: in the top-10 for the first time this year.

9. New Mexico (17-4, 23 Pomeroy)
The Lobos got a bit of a raw deal in dropping out last week after a really tough 1-2 punch in games against San Diego State and UNLV. But they bounced back this week with two dominant wins in the Mountain West, and have made their way back into the top 10 through the attrition of some tough losses by other teams. The Lobos are well-liked by Pomeroy's system, with a top-40 adjusted-offense and defense. They are also 10th in the nation in averaging 17 assists per game. New Mexico will enjoy one more week of relatively easy games, then hits a brutal five game stretch in which they play the five of the top six Mountain West teams in a row (New Mexico is the one top-six team that New Mexico won't be playing during that stretch). To entertain any hopes of an at-large bid, between now and Feb. 26, when that stretch is over, I would think the Lobos should plan on going no worse than 5-2.

8. Wichita State (18-4, 12 Pomeroy)
The Shockers just about killed their chances of a Missouri Valley Conference regular season title with a triple-overtime loss at Drake Saturday. That loss is also why they've dropped three spots in the rankings this week, but it wasn't enough to knock them out. Wichita is still an elite mid-major program, and it is still loved irrationally by the formula used at kenpom.com. We'll see if Wichita can show its top-20 adjusted-offensive and defensive ratings are no fluke, as the Shockers are now going to start the toughest stretch of their season. They will play every other MVC team that has looked tough this year, including at Creighton, as well as play a tough Bracketbusters game at Davidson.

7. Oral Roberts (20-4, 68 Pomeroy)
With the dropping of Middle Tennessee this week after it lost a game it was expected to lose at Vanderbilt, Oral Roberts has become the darlings of this Top 10. The Golden Eagles are playing nobody good in the Summit League, but they've won 13 straight. They are still one of the best shooting teams in the country, at almost 49 percent from the field on the season. They also possess the 19th-best adjusted-offense in the country. That offense will have to carry Oral Roberts in a make-or-break week upcoming. The team plays road games at the 2nd and 3rd-place teams in the Summit League (South Dakota State and North Dakota State). At 17-6 and 9-2 in the conference, SDSU is actually going to be a very tough opponent. With two wins this week, the Golden Eagles will have a very legitimate shot at running the table in the conference.

6. Harvard (18-2, 29 Pomeroy)
The Crimson are back on the rise in our Mid-Major Report, as they're beginning to pile up wins again. With two easy road wins last week, Harvard has won six in a row and is looking good doing it. Contrary to most of the teams that have populated our ranking throughout this season, Harvard makes its mark on defense. A look at just about any offensive stat for the Crimson does not paint a pretty picture: 222nd in points-per-game, 261st in rebounding, 173rd in assists, 75th in adjusted-offense. But the adjusted-defense stat has the Crimson ranked 15th. Then take a look at their results this season. One team has scored 70 or more on Harvard this year. It was in an 80-70 win over Seattle. Harvard has also held nine opponents to less than 50 points this year. Remember what happened in the NFL this year, when all we cared about was offense, and then all the teams with good defenses (except the Patriots, whose defense has actually been better in the playoffs) are the ones winning when it matters? Yeah, don't sleep on good defense.

5. San Diego State (18-3, 53 Pomeroy)
The Aztecs finally took it on the chin. After beating the toughest teams in the Mountain West and looking like a contender for a 2-seed like they enjoyed last year, the Aztecs got stomped by 17 at Colorado State Saturday. And despite a nice 52-42 win at Wyoming, San Diego State has to drop significantly in this week's poll. Could this be the beginning of an unraveling for SDSU? Their numbers still aren't very impressive (31st in adjusted-defense doesn't exactly jump off the page at you, but it is the best SDSU has to offer as far as national ranking), and according to kenpom.com, they are another one of those teams with a high "luck" rating, as mentioned above when discussing Nevada. Still, I don't think it's time to panic. San Diego State has an excellent coach in Steve Fischer, and to win the games it has this season, clearly boasts some talent as well. Those two things are always going to be a deadly combination.

4. UNLV (20-3, 21 Pomeroy)
It was a bit of a rocky week for Las Vegas, needing overtime to beat both Boise State and Air Force, but in the end, UNLV ended up with two road wins and a winning streak of four games. As has been the case all season, UNLV is an elite offensive team. The Rebels average almost 81 points a game (ninth), 40 rebounds per game (15th) and 18 assists per game (fourth). They also are 17th-best in adjusted-offense. After a week of not-exactly-creampuff-but-UNLV-should-win games, The Rebels will get their shot at revenge against San Diego State, in what will be the key game in the Mountain West conference this season. Should be fun.

3. Saint Mary's (21-2, 22 Pomeroy)
2. Creighton (20-2, 27 Pomeroy)
There doesn't seem like much point in writing about these two teams differently right now. Both experienced their last loss in late December and have been rolling since. Both went 2-0 last week in relatively easy fashion (Saint Mary's probably a bit more impressive in beating BYU at BYU by 14). Both are virtually locks for the NCAA Tournament. Both picked up a good Bracketbusters game this weekend (Creighton versus Long Beach State, Saint Mary's at Murray State) which will serve to either help another team out or knock them up a seeding or two come tournament time. Just know that both of these teams would be contending for the regular season title regardless of what conference they were playing in this season. They are both really, really good.

1. Murray State (21-0, 47 Pomeroy)
Teams that have been ranked in the top 10 of the Mid-Major Report this season and lost since the first Report on December 12: Kent State, Wichita State, UNLV, Saint Louis, Brigham Young, Cleveland State, San Diego State, Harvard, Creighton, Saint Mary's, Middle Tennessee, Virginia Commonwealth, New Mexico, Iona, Wyoming, Southern Miss, Oral Roberts.
Teams that haven't lost since the first Mid-Major Report: Nevada (last loss Nov. 25), Murray State (last loss March 15).

Yup.