Evaluating the Final Four games on anything but basketball

For the first time since I can't remember, I won't be able to watch the Final Four games tonight. Yes, devastation. Luckily, there is a way of figuring out which teams will meet in the Championship game without even catching a whiff of basketball.

Kentucky vs. Louisville
Mascot
Kentucky's mascot is among the most generic in all of sports, right alongside bulldog; that being said, Louisville's mascot is the Cardinal. The Cardinal is a non-predatory bird, and while it looks cool and is the state bird of Ohio, that's about all it has going. Sorry, Cardy, the Wildcat takes round one.

Roster names
Pretty easy call on this one. Junior guard Twany Beckham aside, UK's roster is a veritable who's-who of average basketball player names. Darius Miller. Terence Jones. Anthony Davis. Sam Malone. Coach Cal is an unbelievable recruiter, but he's got to work on getting his name-game up. On the other hand, Louisville has two guys with the last name Smith on its roster and still manages to be more exciting. Whether its freshman Angel Nunez (anybody named Angel is automatically getting my attention) who doesn't play at all or sophomore Gorgui Dieng (same goes for anybody named Gorgui--or Dieng, for that matter) who starts for the Cardinals, Louisville has cool names on lockdown. The 'Ville has some guy named Stephan Van Treese on its roster. That dude sounds like he should be the son of a Duke, but is disappointingly just from Indianapolis. Still, his name's getting the job done. Even one of Louisville's more boring names, Kyle Kuric, rolls off the tongue nicely due to its alliteration. Cards even things up.

Most Interesting Man test
This test is inspired by the Dos Equis commercials featuring the "Most Interesting Man in the World". Which team has a guy who might speak French in Russian? Or maybe he could have inside jokes with total strangers? Basically, who would I want to hang out with most? And the answer to this one goes to the the resident winner of the name game as well--Gorgui Dieng. While in Louisville last weekend I spent time hanging out with a guy from Tanzania who was friends with the people I was visiting. He was funny, always in a good mood and ready to mix it up with whoever, and told some absolutely fascinating stories. Gorgui may not party quite as hardy as anybody in Lexington, but I'm thinking he'd be way more interesting to listen to between the weekends, telling me stories about his time in Senegal and what he thinks of the States. That definitely sounds better than talking to Anthony Davis about how crazy it was at this one AAU Tournament he played at when he was 15. Edge, Louisville.

Most Interesting Coach test
Same as before, but with the men running the benches for both teams. Unfortunately, I know very little nothing about either team's coaches beyond the leading men, so there are only two candidates I could choose from in this one. And that seems like a pretty easy call. Coach Cal may be deplorable, but is there any doubt he'd be a fun to hang with? It is clear as day from interviews that his players like him, and he's doing something right in order to fill his roster with future NBA-ers year after year. I'm guessing it's got to do with that personality. Coach Pitino on the other hand? Larger than life guy, for sure. Ultra-successful college coach, yes. But he still strikes me as very meh. The only thing I'd want to talk about is what a conversation Ricky probably wouldn't be keen on having.

Who is more worth rooting for?
Well, neither team. It's Kentucky and Louisville. The only way to make this worse would be to replace one of the teams with North Carolina and bring Tyler Hansbrough back to the Tar Heels' roster. But Louisville has several seniors and guys who aren't going to be making money playing professional basketball in the U.S., and other guys who might make the money, but still won't be playing. Set aside the fact that Kentucky is a farm team for the pros and how much that sucks in general. Most of the guys playing on that team will have plenty more shots on glory when they are in the pros. This is just a stop for them. No matter how much they really care about this Championship and no matter what happens over the next three days, the future is bright for them. For Kyle Kuric and Peyton Siva? The future (as far as basketball is concerned) is the next three days. So this has to the to the Cardinals.

For anybody not able to keep track, Louisville pulled off the upset, 3-2. Despite all the indications, opinions and talent to the contrary, here is some hard evidence that the Cardinals have a chance. And hey, even if Louisville does get thrashed tonight, at least Gorgui Dieng will have given it some pride: MVP of this column.

Ohio State vs. Kansas
Mascot
If there is a mascot that Ohio State would actually beat, it is escaping me. Seriously, Ohio State are the Buckeyes. And not even the tree. The seed on the tree that peanut buttery snacks are modeled after. Even if it was the tree, the Buckeye is not an especially impressive angiosperm. Were they the Ohio State Redwoods, then maybe we're talking. But Buckeye? Let alone the fact that Kansas' mascot is a mythical bird. This is not close. Point KU.

Roster names
Mostly boring on both sides. All of Kansas' cool is coming from guys that don't see the floor: Naadir Tharpe, Niko Roberts, Merv Lindsay (Merv!). The Jayhawks do have two guards with decent names in Tyshawn Taylor (once again, on the strength of alliteration) and Elijah Johnson (on the strength of Elijah), but KU has clearly left this one wide open. Ohio State doesn't have much to shout about in the category either, however. It is always a good thing to have a Weatherspoon on the roster, and J.D. Weatherspoon proudly sports the scarlet and grey from the sidelines. So Ohio State has that going for it, which is nice. Throw in LaQuinton Ross and Evan Ravenel, and the name game is going down to the wire. The way I see it, it comes down to Merv Lindsay and Evan Ravenel. And while Merv has the advantage of having a fake first name for a first name and a real first name for a last name, I think only Gorgui Dieng has a shot at beating Evan Ravenel for full-name glory. Kudos to Ravvy's parents for having the guts to name him Evan. That could have gone south quickly with so many e's, a's and v's in such a short span of syllables. But it hasn't. Point Buckeyes.

Most Interesting Man test
Thomas Robinson is an incredible player with an incredible story. He has put his younger sister before himself at all times, and should be commended for that. But in spite of that and in spite of my disdain for him, I don't think there's any choice other than Jared Sullinger for Most Interesting Man in this game. Sully's larger-than-life personality has been on display since his freshman year. It reached a nationwide audience when we saw him singing "Party in the USA" on ESPN, but it is there for all to see in the middle of games as well. Sullinger puts his tongue out and cheers and nods when good things are happening for his team. But this year, the other side of Sullinger was seen much more frequently. He was pouting when things weren't going well. He quit on his team because he allowed things he couldn't control get the better of him a couple times. Right now, however, Sullinger appears to have his swag back in full force. And even though he annoys me to watch on TV, I have no doubt he'd be a blast to be around in person. Buckeyes, 2-1.

Most Interesting Coach test
Thad Matta's name is Thad Matta, and that is awesome. Thad also is kinda cool because he's not like any of the other mega-successful coaches of big programs in the country--Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Bo Ryan, John Calipari, Billy Donovan, Jim Boeheim, etc. All those guys are totally composed in their interviews. Thad doesn't have that polished feel about him. He seems much more genuine in his comments because of that. That being said, he coached at Xavier, which pretty much ends this argument. Bill Self is another one of those boring, polished automatons, but he hasn't been at Xavier. Sorry for that Ocean's 12-esque, buildup and anti-climax, but I needed to write something. Edge, Kansas.

Who is more worth rooting for?
The T-Rob story speaks for itself. That guy is pretty well worth rooting for, as are the other veterans on his team, but Ohio State has some worthiness of its own. The Buckeyes are coming off a year in which they were far and away the best team in the country, but suffered in the Elite Eight due to a poor shooting game. What's more, that loss came at the hands of a freshman-laden Kentucky team. This year's UK team is totally different, but I would imagine the leftover Buckeyes would still love a shot at returning the favor. Jared Sullinger has said he came back this year because of the sting of last year. Whether or not you like Sully (and I don't), that's what college basketball is all about. And Kansas' last national championship came in 2007, while OSU hasn't cut down the Nets since 1960. I'd say that means point, Bucks.

Finaly tally comes to Ohio State 3, Kansas 2. The scientific approach delivered by Ken Pomeroy says it will be Kentucky-Ohio State. The non-scientific but educated consensus from the ESPN pundits says we're getting Kentucky-Kansas. And this non-scientific and not-educated is pimping a Louisville-Ohio State final two. I guess that adds up to a fun night of basketball.

Why Kentucky-Louisville can do nothing but harm

Over the weekend I visited some friends in Louisville, and it was my first time staying more than a day in the great state of Kentucky. On Friday night, we headed out to a bar and caught the end of the North Carolina-Ohio Sweet 16 game, which was almost the coolest thing ever. Really, though, we were heading out to catch the Kentucky-Indiana game, a game that I didn't particularly care about, and my friends sort of cared about because now they live in Kentucky. We got to Molly Malone's and it took all of about four seconds to realize that we were not going to be sitting down at any point to watch the game there. But that was fine, as I've been to a Dayton-Xavier game in a Dayton bar, and if you don't arrive early enough, you'll be standing all game long as well.

That was where the similarities and familiarities about watching basketball stopped. What followed was unlike anything I've seen before. Every possession, whether it was a turnover, missed shot, made shot, three-pointer, dunk or timeout, was met with a groan or a cheer. When Cody Zeller scored, the bar groaned. When Cody Zeller missed a shot and it was rebounded by Kentucky, the entire bar erupted. If Christian Watford missed a shot and IU grabbed an offensive rebound, a collective groan was guaranteed. When Anthony Davis scored, a bar-wide cheer was assured. Even if a timeout was forced or called after a loose ball, the crowd at Molly Malone's went berserk one way or another. It was unbelievable. So many things that really didn't matter in the grand scheme of the game were met with despair or joy. Hundreds and hundreds of times over, this process continued.

I'm a huge basketball fan. I would say I care about my teams as much as anybody else I've met. But it wasn't even close the amount these people seemed to have invested in their Wildcats. At least in the city of Louisville, the same seemed to go for the Cardinals. This is why I'm concerned about the loss of life possibilities that could result from Louisville and Kentucky's Final Four matchup this weekend. I don't actually see how violence can be avoided. We've all heard about the Dodgers fan being beaten into a coma and two San Francisco 49ers fans being shot after a 49ers-Raiders game. Well, from what I could tell this weekend, the people in Kentucky are at least as insane as the nutjobs involved in those incidents. And this is a Final Four game, compared to a regular season and a preseason game (as in, it's a little bit more important).

Whatever the result of the game, while I had fun in Louisville over the weekend, I'm thinking I'll be glad not to be back in the coming one.

Sweet 16 Friday Primer

While yesterday's picks for the games resulted in just s 2-2 performance (Syracuse and Ohio State being the ones I got correct), I will also pat myself on the back for correctly prescribing the formula for Louisville to win. The Cardinals got their defense on and played a game in the 50s (in Michigan State's case, the 40s), and turned in an impressive win. Kudos to Florida for totally proving me wrong. Billy Donovan's crew dominated Marquette in the second half, outplaying and out-hustling them. Some better shooting from Marquette would have made that game closer down the stretch, but I don't think the result would have been different. Florida was the better team Thursday night. And in a best of one series, sometimes being on your game on a given night is what matters most.

Xavier vs. Baylor, 7:15 p.m.
On paper this looks like an easy win for Baylor. Baylor is the superior team physically and is still waiting on a good game in the tournament from its best player, Perry Jones III. But you can never really count Xavier out, can you? Four Sweet 16s in the past five years. It makes me sick to hear about it, because this year Xavier shouldn't have even been in the tournament. A Matt Kavanaugh layup would have done the trick. But Xavier survived that game, and then survived Notre Dame and beat Lehigh. I do not like giving praise to the Musketeers, but somehow, they get into this type of situation year after year. And Baylor is a soft, vulnerable team. Xavier may not be likable, but they are definitely not soft. Gangsta and "zippin' 'em up" jokes aside, this is a tough team. And they have a guy who lives for the moment in Holloway. If the Bears come out the least bit lackadaisical, you can bet that Xavier will jump all over them, and that could all there is to this game. One would hope, however, that a team of college basketball players can find motivation to play hard in a Sweet 16 game, regardless of its opponent. I think Baylor does that, and we're finally done with Holloway in college basketball.

Ohio vs. North Carolina, 7:47 p.m.
In any given year of college basketball, if Ohio University were playing North Carolina in one of the early season tournaments held at a neutral site, like the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, most everyone would look at the names of the teams, think, "that's going to be a blowout," and probably not watch the game. Just because this is a Sweet 16 game does not mean it should be approached any differently. To get here Ohio has done some great things, and its game against South Florida in the third round was an extremely fun one to watch, but this is North Carolina. Kendall Marshall or not, they are superior to the Bobcats in every way. They can put out a front line of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, James Michael McAdoo and Harrison Barnes. How exactly is OU going to compete with that? They aren't. It's been a great ride for OU, but don't feel bad if you end up changing the channel or starting your Friday night pregame early in lieu of finishing this game.

Indiana vs. Kentucky, 9:45 p.m.
If the three games listed so far go the right way, March 23, 2012 will be the greatest NCAA Tournament night of my life in which a team I was rooting for didn't win the National Championship. Unfortunately, it is much more likely that Kentucky, North Carolina and Xavier will all win than it is that they will all lose. Of course, the pundits have reminded us a couple hundred thousand times that Indiana is responsible for Kentucky's sole loss this season. So sure, perhaps that will give IU some confidence heading into the game. But let's dissect how likely a repeat is for the Hoosiers. First off, that game was a home game for Indiana. This will be played on a neutral court. For anyone who will be watching his/her first basketball game tonight, that makes more than a small difference. In addition, it was a game in which Indiana possessed a hefty lead, but saw it vanish in no time when Kentucky flexed its muscle in the second half. And finally, it took a buzzer-beater from beyond the arc to secure the victory. Basically, it was the type of thing that only happens a couple times a season for a team, and it was only able to happen because Indiana had played a great game in its home gym on that day. To me, this has 15-20 point UK win written all over it. Then again, there hasn't been a single buzzer-beater all tournament long, so maybe...

North Carolina State vs. Kansas, 10:17 p.m.
This looks like the most intriguing matchup of the night. NC State has been playing excellent basketball, mainly through its big men, since the ACC Tournament. If not for a missed call on an offensive foul, the Wolfpack would have played for the ACC title, and had a great shot at beating Florida State. Since then, they've been dominant in the NCAA Tournament. They dispatched a very good San Diego State easily by executing a good game plan to perfection. But that was by exploiting a size advantage against the Aztecs. In the third round, NC State proved the win was no fluke by beating Georgetown and Henry Sims, a pretty good big man in his own right. Now, things only get tougher. The NC State front line will have to deal with Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey of Kansas, perhaps the best duo in the country (Zeller and Henson from UNC would be the other option). Kansas is coming off a lackluster performance against Purdue, but the Jayhawks survived Robbie Hummel's last stand. If Tyshawn Taylor and Robinson can get back on track and deliver typically strong games in the Sweet 16, my gut says Kansas is too good for NC State. But if they're a bit underwhelming again? We'll have an 11 seed in the Elite Eight for the second straight year.

Sweet 16 Thursday Primer

Gone already are the days in which we are treated to deciding between watching CBS, TNT, TruTV and TBS because four basketball games are playing all at once. Today we get just four games total. Lucky for the people who will make the decision to keep watching, they should be some pretty good games.

Wisconsin vs. Syracuse, 7:15 p.m.
Does anyone have a handle on what's going to happen in this game? There's no way to know which version of either of these teams is going to show up tonight. Wisconsin was the team that ratings systems like Kenpom and Sagarin loved to love, but basketball fans loved to hate all season. They were rated highly, but in their play we saw a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team. But in two games in the NCAA Tournament, the Badgers have looked more the former than the latter. They thrashed a good Montana team in the first round, and then shut down Vanderbilt's best players (and therefore offense) to squash the Commodores. Now they get Syracuse, a team that is certainly better than them. But Syracuse has looked like two completely different teams in the tournament. In the first round against UNC-Asheville, the Orange were bad, playing too fast like they were panicked, and didn't shoot well on top of it. In the third round against Kansas State, they got back to basics, and Fab Melo or not, looked like the well-balanced, deep team that showed up for the entire regular season.
So which teams will show up? I think the Syracuse that played against Kansas State will be the one we see tonight. And while Wisconsin has long been the best team in the country in turning games ugly, I think even if this game goes that way, Syracuse's athleticism and depth will carry it to triumph in the end. I see the Orange build an eight to ten point lead, and then Wisconsin can never quite close that gap.

Louisville at Michigan State, 7:47 p.m.
Louisville and Michigan State come into this game as two of the hottest teams in the country; both won their conference tournament championships and have obviously followed that up by taking care of business with two wins to get the Sweet 16. Now they will run into each other. On paper to me, this one looks relatively easy. Michigan State matches up much better with Louisville than the other way around. They have the big men to go toe-to-toe with the Cardinals' bigs, and Keith Appling is just as good (probably better) than Peyton Siva, who has been a big source of offense for Louisville recently. That doesn't even take Draymond Green into account. Michigan State's point-power forward is one of the toughest matchups in the country, and Louisville would appear to be poorly suited to guard him; I'm curious to see who is going to have to take the assignment. This seems like the type of thing that could turn into a situation like the Thunder playing the Mavericks in last year's NBA Playoffs, and the Thunder experimenting with what seemed like its entire roster to find someone to guard Dirk Nowitzki. Long story short--none of them worked. The Mavs won. I think the same will happen for the Spartans. Louisville's best chance lies in turning this game into a grinder in the 50s, and having its team defense dictate what happens all game long.

Cincinnati vs. Ohio State
Without question the most anticipated game on Thursday, Cincy-OSU presents a very interesting matchup. Even beyond the mutual hatred between the programs, this looks interesting. Jared Sullinger has not been as dominant as expected this season, and when he has had poor or frustrating games, he has gotten pouty and quit all year. It has been special to watch, because when that happens, Ohio State usually loses. If UC is going to make it to the Elite Eight, that is its most likely route--through a down-in-the-dumps Sully. Luckily for the Bearcats, Yancy Gates is playing unbelievably well and has the size and skills to perhaps piss Sullinger off enough. If "Sulkinger" comes into play, Ohio State is going to need William Buford to start playing well again. The senior has been a bit of a disappointment at times this year. He is an extremely talented scorer, but has poor shooting days way too often. Ohio State is going to need the version of him that hit the game-winner against Michigan State in the regular season's final game. If the Buckeyes get that, they're going to be tough to beat period, let alone in this game.

Florida vs. Marquette
Is Florida actually a Sweet 16 team? At one point, the Gators almost cracked the top ten in the AP Rankings this season. Then, they lost several games near the end of the season and looked really vulnerable. Then, they destroyed Virginia in the second round of the tournament. In the third round, they were lucky enough to play Norfolk State, which deserves credit for outplaying Missouri, but it was very unlikely that level of play would show up again. Florida dominated again, and here we are. Marquette, on the other hand, looks every bit the part of a Final Four-capable team. The Golden Eagles are playing hard, have a coach that has changed the culture there and has every player buying into giving maximum effort, and they possess two absolute studs in Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom. The fact that I've basically written Florida off in this paragraph, however, makes this feel like a trap game. And given my track record in 2012 for picking tournament games (I have seven of 16 Sweet 16 teams correct in my bracket, the worst I can ever remember doing), maybe my word is not worth taking. But I love the way that Marquette plays, and think Florida has been fortunate to get here. I believe the Gators will be overwhelmed in the nightcap.

Why the Sweet 16 is still worth watching

Today my dad called out to from another room and said, "Isn't this about as bad a Sweet 16 as we could have? Between North Carolina, Kentucky and Xavier all making it, and no mid-majors that have a chance to do anything." He then thought for a moment before adding, "I guess that means I won't have to spend time watching the games."

And while my dad is right, this is a disastrous Sweet 16 for Dayton and Duke fans (exacerbated by the fact that it was Duke's loss to Lehigh in the the Round of 64 that in theory made it easier on Xavier to make the Sweet 16). But when I have the chance, I'll be catching games this Thursday through Sunday, because there are some awesome ones still available. Sorry to all the Bobcat fans out there, but I don't see North Carolina-Ohio as one of them. OU making it to the Sweet 16 is probably the best story of the tournament, but the size of North Carolina looks like something it will be just about impossible for the Bobcats to overcome. A 15-30 type shooting day from the three point line might make a difference, but otherwise, I'd say the ride will be over in Athens. How about NC State vs. Kansas though? North Carolina State has been one of the pleasures to watch in the tournament's first four days, looking like it is on a mission. The Wolfpack big men have been unstoppable, and they will be going up against the best big man in the country this season (numbers wise) in Thomas Robinson from Kansas. Not to mention that T-Rob is pretty entertaining to watch anyway.

And what about the two games opposing each other at the top of the bracket, Kentucky-Indiana and Syracuse-Wisconsin? If UK-IU comes close to the first meeting between the two teams, it'll be worth the price of admission, and Wisconsin finally looks like it is playing the level of basketball it is capable of, while Syracuse righted the ship in the third round against Kansas State. The Orange are never going to be the same team defensively without Fab Melo, but they have the opportunity to be a much more deadly offensive team throughout the game. The Orange are not out of the national title hunt yet.

The bottom line is this: The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight are almost never as fun as the rounds that precede them. The sheer volume of basketball (and therefore number of entertaining games that transpire) that whittles the field from 64 to 16 is difficult to overcome. But the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight still have in them what has always made college basketball the best basketball there is: you get to see these guys lay everything out there. We get to watch these players give it absolutely everything they have, because for most of them, it will be the last Sweet 16 game they play. For the players coming from North Carolina and Kentucky, it will be the last fun, team-oriented basketball they play.

Getting to see guys really care about winning, and going as hard as they can to keep on playing is the best part of this tournament. With perhaps the exception of Kevin Garnett in his first year with the Celtics, stuff like Robbie Hummel's reaction walking off the court and in the press conferences just doesn't happen in pro sports. It's why college basketball will always be the best. It's why I'm going to keep on watching.

Thursday late games Roundup

Usually having a Thursday off work doesn't do me much good. But I was lucky enough to have the opening Thursday of March Madness off work, and plan on taking full advantage. I will watch every single game, and give whatever reactions are necessary to capture the day in basketball. Here's what went down in the final eight games of the day.

Best Game
The second set of games were better than the first eight, but not by much. The game of the day has to go to Wichita State vs. Virginia Commonwealth. In one of the more highly anticipated mid-major games of the night, the Rams completed the first upset of the day by responding to a Wichita State rally and hitting shots late to win the game. VCU has made its mark on the defensive end this year, and that was no different in this game. Wichita State, the defending NIT Champs, came out cold and had trouble dealing with VCU's pressure in the first half. The Shockers staged a late rally, but VCU responded, and viewers were treated to a couple minutes of pressure-packed, back-and-forth basketball. In the end, VCU made its shots in the final two minutes than Wichita could muster. As a result, Shaka Smart and the Rams have picked up where they left off in the NCAAs last year. Wichita State looked like the type of experience-laden, athletic and deep team that could give Kentucky trouble in the South Region. But that is no longer an option.
Honorable mention to Colorado's win over UNLV, in which the Buffaloes built a 20-point lead in the second half on the strength of some unbelievable shooting, and then managed to hold off the Runnin' Rebels' furious rally, bringing the lead as low as two at one point.

Biggest Disappointment
Connecticut. This is really a season-long award for the Huskies, but it was personified in the defending champs' loss to Iowa State. How a team can have all those future-NBA players and be so bad is beyond me. But UConn manages to pull it off. Jeremy Lamb is an unbelievable player, but he disappears. Andre Drummond is supposed to be the second best center prospect in college basketball, but he does nothing. UConn was without its coach for much of the season, but that is not even close to an excuse for falling behind Iowa State by 22 points in the first half. Sure, Connecticut made a run in the second to make things closer, but they were worn out at the end and fell apart. They never should have been in the position to need a comeback that significant.

Trending Topics
Defense wins Championships? Since the beginning of the day, we've seen several high-octane offenses stifled, and the teams possessing those offenses. Davidson, Wichita State and UNLV all had among the highest-scoring offenses in the country, and were very smooth in their fast-paced style of play. But Louisville, VCU and Colorado shut those teams down for the most part, allowing only the offenses to ignite only in brief spurts. In addition, BYU's defensive adjustments made the difference against Iona in the first four, when the Gaels had previously put on one of the great offensive displays ever, and Murray State was down one to Colorado State at halftime, but picked it up significantly on the defensive end, and held the Rams to just 16 second half points en route to an impressive win. Will the defenses continue to dominate? Here's to hoping that Notre Dame's defense does the trick against Xavier, and Vermont's is successful against North Carolina (ha).

Looking forward to Round 3
Ohio State beat Loyola Maryland by 19, but was not especially impressive. Loyola was vastly undersized, and had to navigate the game with every starter in foul trouble for most of the game. Still, the Greyhounds stuck around for an inordinate amount of time. On the other hand, Gonzaga looked great against West Virginia. The Zags opened up a 20-point lead in what felt like no time, and held onto it. It was Deshaun Thomas and Jared Sullinger who dominated the game against Loyola, and they won't likely be able to expose Gonzaga on the interior. Elias Harris and Robert Sacre are big enough to contend with Thomas and Sullinger. If the Buckeyes don't play better defense, they may be exiting early.

Thursday early games Roundup

Usually having a Thursday off work doesn't do me much good. But I was lucky enough to have the opening Thursday of March Madness off work, and plan on taking full advantage. I will watch every single game, and give whatever reactions are necessary to capture the day in basketball. Here's what went down in the first eight games.

Best Game
Syracuse vs. UNC-Asheville. In a game that will forever be tainted by the officiating in my mind, Syracuse pushed ahead in the second half and hung on with some help to avoid being the first 1-seed ever to lose. There are several terrible calls that can be pointed out from this game (a no-call goaltending, a lane violation called on a guard and the worst out-of-bounds call in recent memory are the most obvious). What's most amazing is none of them necessarily won Syracuse the game. It just would have been closer by two or three points on certain possessions down the stretch. But watching the game, any non-Cuse fan was only thinking about how the little guys had been cheated. It's a shame that Asheville guard Matt Dickey's career came to end in a game like that. Dickey, an excellent guard and Big South Player of the Year, was just 1-13 from the field, and those calls certainly did not help with the bitter taste in his mouth at the end of the game.

Biggest Disappointment
Second half officiating in the Cuse/Asheville game. But since that's already been discussed, Montana is my biggest disappointment. The 13 seed looked absolutely nothing like the team I had seen play earlier this season. The Grizzlies came in with a similar play-style and enough size to give Wisconsin plenty of trouble. They do their best work on the defensive end, but not in this game. After surrendering a late run to give Wisconsin a 10-point lead at half, it still looked like the Grizz had a shot if they started shooting better in the second half. Instead, they went into hibernation (which is odd, because it's getting to springtime), and handed Wisconsin its most lopsided victory of the season since conference play started (read: since they started playing decent teams). They gave up 73 to Wisconsin! Ugh.

Trending Topics
Mid-major teams that I have lauded are going down fast. When I wrote about mid-major teams to watch out for, it was teams that actually looked like they could cause some problems in the early rounds of the tournament. Evidently not. Iona suffered the biggest collapse in NCAA Tournament history Tuesday night, and today Davidson and Montana laid a couple eggs on the court. Long Beach State was competitive in its game against New Mexico, but couldn't make plays down the stretch and lost as well. South Dakota State and St. Bonaventure (the two longest shots on that list, by seeding) are the last line of defense against a goose egg in my upsets column.

What to look for in Round Three
Murray State and Marquette will meet in what should be a pretty fun matchup. Once again, Marquette does not have great size, which will suit Murray just fine. Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year Isaiah Canaan is going to need to step up. He has had two straight poor shooting games that have still resulted in wins for Murray State. That is a testament to how good the Racers really are. But a no-show from Canaan will not work out quite so well against Marquette, methinks.
Syracuse vs. Kansas State is also an interesting matchup. Are the Orange really as vulnerable as they looked against Asheville, or was it just a classic case of early tournament jitters and adjustments? If Bob Wenzel is to be believed (and he's not), then 'Cuse will be fine. My gut tells me Syracuse will win the game, but once again not by much. At the very least, I think it will be a non-referee-aided victory, which would be nice to see.

A March Madness Mid-Major Extravaganza

We've made it through Championship Week. The 68 team bracket is out. Like most years, it contains its disappoints and its surprises. But there's no time to dwell on that nonsense anymore. Games start today, and while today and Wednesday's games don't feature any teams that I'll be picking to make the Final Four, one of them will showcase two teams that have been on and off the my Mid-Major Report all season long. And while the key to winning online contests like ESPN's Tournament Challenge is more about getting all the picks correct from the Elite Eight on, way more bragging rights can be gained from picking the big 13 over 4 or 12 over 5 upset early on, or correctly choosing a 10 or 11 seed to advance to the Sweet 16. So here we are, on the precipice of the dance, and here are some teams to keep your eye on, outside of the top eight seeds.

Iona
The Gaels do not belong on the tournament; let's get that out of the way. However, now that they have been selected, they should be taken very seriously. Iona boasts one of the best offenses in the country. Featuring the leader in the country in assists per game this season, Scott Machado, the Gaels seem to have 100 different guys that can just shoot the ball extremely well. It is why their field goal percentage has been in the top five all season long. Machado and Momo Jones will both likely be NBA players before it is all said an done. Any mid-major team with that kind of talent is going to be dangerous for an upset (over the past two years, Butler has lost two players to the NBA. They were a pretty decent mid-major squad). The bad news for the Gaels in this tournament is that they will have to get through a very good BYU team in order to even have a chance at an upset. The good news? If Iona does manage to dispatch the Cougars, they play Marquette in the second round. Marquette is an excellent team, but not one with great size. Marquette will not likely be able to exploit its athleticism against Iona, so size would be the next best option. But without much in the way of great big men (just great forwards), Marquette could be vulnerable here.

Davidson
My love for this Wildcats team is irrational. But I can't help it. Watching them play is just so much fun. They are a true team, getting contributions from every position, eight players deep. They have two excellent players in Demon Brooks and Jake Cohen, and a classic short-white-guard-who-shouldn't-be-good-but-is-because-he's-crafty player in Nik Cochran. And guess what? The Wildcats get to play Louisville in the first round. Yes, Louisville got hot and won the Big East Tournament, but it was one of the worst Big East Tournaments ever, and it's pretty common to have a hangover after winning all those games on consecutive days. Plus, the Cardinals might even be undersized playing against Davidson. I see this game as one going down to the wire. The key to me is whether Cohen can avoid foul trouble. The two games I've seen Davidson play this year, he has been unstoppable, but picked up too many fouls to keep playing. He must avoid that to give Davidson its best chance.

Long Beach State
Yep, the 12, 13 and 14 seeds all from the same region are teams to watch out for. It almost certainly won't happen, but how cool would it be if these teams all played on the weekend with a shot at the Sweet 16? Long Beach State played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country in the non-conference, and then ran through its conference play to a Big West title. As a result, the 49ers will not be even a little bit scared of New Mexico in the second round of the tournament. We all know about Casper Ware and what a great player he is (I hope), but what I really like about LBSU in the tournament is the team's coach, Dan Monson. Monson was Gonzaga's coach before Mark Few took over and was at the helm of the team when it made its first run as a Cinderella to the Elite Eight. Since then, Gonzaga has vaulted onto the national scene and recruits with the best in the country. Monson moved on to coach Minnesota, and had only limited success. Now, he's back where he belongs in the mid-major ranks, and doing extremely well again.

South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits are an excellent mid-major team led by an unbelievable guard in Nate Wolters. What is most impressive about Wolters is that he gets most of his scoring done inside the three-point line. He's not just an unbelievable shooter who can bomb it all day; he's a crafty, quicker-and-faster-than-you-think guard who can get to the rim, dish the ball effectively and also grab boards. It also helps that Wolters can rely on his teammates to knock down jump shots, like they did in the Summit League final to punch a ticket to the dance. South Dakota State has an interesting matchup in its first game of the tournament: Baylor. On the one hand, Baylor is very big, talented and athletic; that is what we saw when it beat Kansas in the Big-12 Tournament. On the other hand, Baylor has looked like one of the softer teams in the country this season--that is what we saw when the Bears lost to Kansas State and Iowa State this season (not bad teams by an stretch, but it just seemed like Baylor was weak in those games). So if South Dakota State runs into the right Baylor team Thursday, look out.

Montana
I was hoping and praying that Weber State would beat Montana in the Big Sky Finals, because Damian Lillard is amazing to watch. But the Grizz blew Weber State out and showed that there is no doubt they should be the team representing that conference in the tournament. Montana is another well-balanced group, and they have an excellent matchup in the first round: Wisconsin. Montana is like a small-conference doppelganger for Wisconsin, from what I've seen. Both get pretty balance scoring from a variety of players, and the big men can shoot the three as well as the guards. Montana doesn't have anybody quite as good as Jordan Taylor or Jared Berggren, but a strong shooting day could easily have them moving on. I've seen enough of Wisconsin's offensive disappearing to know that any day could be a 45-point performance.

St. Bonaventure
Another mid-major I like based solely on the matchup in the second round. Florida State is an excellent team, especially on defense. But to say that they can be offensively challenged would be a colossal understatement. The Seminoles have scored under 50 points three times this season, including an abysmal 41-point performance on a neutral court in a loss to Harvard. They've scored under 60 points another handful of times. Their inconsistency on offense just doesn't inspire much confidence. On the other hand, Andrew Nicholson has had four 30-point games this season. If the right intersection of those two things happen (FSU struggling shooting, Nicholson going off), the Bonnies could be playing on Sunday.

So, a 12 seed, two 13 seeds and three 14 seeds? Yup. It seems crazy just to look at that sentence. But all of those are real possibilities. That stems from the fact that we have great mid-major teams, but moreso from the fact that beyond the 1 and 2 seeds (other than Duke, which could definitely lose to Lehigh in the second round), there is no team that strikes me as good. There is no team that got screwed into a three seed, or had a rough patch but is actually an awesome team that will make a run. None of them make me shake in my little space boots, and that means they won't have their mid-major counterparts shaking either.

Make or Break?

Last week I wrote about the Dayton-Duquesne game, and how it didn't matter that much because UD's NCAA Tournament hopes rested solely on winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Still, I wanted to see the Flyers play hard, play well and win. Well, they did that. And as far as I was concerned, nothing had changed for UD except for the number in its win column this season. Then my brother pointed me to this tweet from Joe Lunardi, saying that UD was closer than maybe we expected to being a tournament team. Flabbergasted, I followed UD's performance while at work that night as it thrashed Massachusetts, 76-43 at home. When I got home, I watched ESPN and got on ESPN.com for the latest Bracketology updates, and couldn't believe my eyes when I saw that Dayton was Lunardi's seventh team out of the tournament--they were his 45th-best candidate to receive an at-large bid. I sort of assumed that Joe had lost his mind, but looking at other brackets, the same was true. UD was just outside the field (in some cases, in it).

So is Dayton's game at Richmond tonight a make or break for the Flyers? No and yes. Winning at Richmond (15-15, 6-9 A-10) will not vault the Flyers into the projected NCAA Tournament field, or even help them bypass a single team in front of them (unless one of those teams loses). But losing to Richmond would certainly spell doom for Dayton's at-large chances (I am still skeptical that these even exist).

That is why tonight's game is so nerve-racking. If there is any type of game that UD has perfected losing, it is this one. An important game against a weak opponent (almost always a conference opponent) that will drastically effect Dayton's place in the A-10 standings one way or another. I don't really want to look to the past for proof, but here goes: at 3-3 in the A-10 last year, Dayton traveled to Duquesne and lost 84-62. After righting the ship the Flyers were 5-4 in A-10 play; they then lost by 14 at Rhode Island. At 7-8 in the conference that year, Dayton played its final game at George Washington and lost 60-58. In the 2009-10 season, UD was 3-1 in the A-10, then lost consecutive games at Saint Joe's and with Rhode Island visiting. At 6-3 in the conference, Dayton lost 68-65 at Saint Louis, then lost on senior night again to the Billikens while sporting an 8-7 record. During the 2007-08 season, Dayton suffered some injuries after starting 2-0 in the conference. In then lost at home to UMass, 82-71. After recovering somewhat and getting to 4-4, Dayton lost consecutive games at George Washington and home to Duquesne. Are you getting the picture? (Too bad if you aren't, because I'm slamming my head against the desk as I'm writing this. For my own safety, we aren't reliving any more devastation). All three of those teams were on and off the bubble throughout the second half of the season. I believe each of them had the talent to make the big dance, but none of them did.

This year's team is not the same in terms of style of play, but in terms of wins and losses the similarities are striking. At 2-0 in the A-10, Dayton lost at St. Bonaventure. At 4-1, the Flyers forgot how to play defense and lost three straight to weaker teams (St. Joe's, Rhode Island, Duquesne) and then one more at a good St. Louis team. Like in past years, it is not unreasonable to say that a win instead of a loss in any of Dayton's A-10 defeats would barely change the team's record, but it would make the team's resume look significantly better. This year's team would be 19-9, and in a third-place tie at 9-5 in the conference. It's just one game, but doesn't 19-9, 9-5 look worlds better than 18-10, 8-6. It does to me. Not to mention that it would take a bad loss of of UD's resume.

Perhaps the most annoying thing about this season as it has turned out, though, is a game we all expected UD to lose. When UD lost 86-83 in overtime at Xavier Feb. 18th, I think it's fair to say most UD fans were disappointed that the team had come so close and lost, but not surprised that Dayton had lost. But now, Xavier has had an extremely rocky second half of the season, and according to Lunardi, is outside the field of 68 just like UD. Essentially this means that a win at Xavier could have (would likely have?) put Dayton in charge of its own tournament destiny, and all but eliminated Xavier's chances. How sweet would that have been? About 150,000 times sweeter than when Brian Roberts dropped 30 points on Pittsburgh.

Sorry, I got carried away there. There's no point in getting caught up in the past. Because tonight, Dayton plays a game that is just as important as that one at Xavier was. Kris Mooney and Richmond have had Dayton's number the past couple years. Last year, it was Richmond that denied Dayton a surprise bid to the tournament by beating them in the A-10 Tourney Championship. But this has been a rebuilding year for the Spiders. It's time for the Flyers to jump on them and take advantage. The committee just might be watching.

The RPI vs. all

As we move through the final couple weeks of college basketball season, the selection committee and teams on the bubble will begin to take over what is important in basketball. And this year, as those potential selections have started to draw our attention, I've noticed that the RPI seems to have taken more shots than usual. Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com has written about his disdain for the RPI and Scott Van Pelt delivered a diatribe (that made about 30 good points) on the matter.

Then yesterday I read an excellent piece from John Gasaway on the history of the RPI from Basketball Prospectus (it's a long article, but if you've got the time, check it out). Gasaway attended the NCAA's mock selection committee and came away searching for more information. Some of the more interesting tidbits to be found in this article:

"Van Valkenburg and his staff looked at using margin of victory in their new rating system, but rejected the idea for two reasons: it could encourage coaches to run up the score, and final scores "oftentimes do not reflect the closeness of games." Instead Van Valkenburg and his colleagues formulated a rating system that adjusted a team's Division I winning percentage based on strength of schedule and game location. The name "Ratings Percentage Index" apparently came about because it did not include the taboo word "Ranking" and because it was thought "RPI" formed a serviceable acronym."
Among the largest complaints about the RPI is that it does not take margin of victory into account. Many of the newer metrics for measuring teams lists margin of victory as an essential component to whether or not a team is actually good (KenPom, LRMC, ESPN's new BPI, John Hollinger's NBA rankings, the list goes on). And there is some truth to that. A team that is 10-0 with all its wins by three or less points is probably not as good as one that is 8-2 with seven wins by double digits, and two losses by five or less. But what is more interesting from that quote is why the RPI creators chose not to use margin of victory. They believed it would encourage coaches to have their teams run up the score. And think about it: for the past decade or so, haven't we heard about teams doing what they can to satisfy the RPI? It started out by teams just trying to secure as high a winning percentage as possible, then when the RPI was adjusted, the fad became scheduling as many top-100 RPI teams as they can to improve their RPI ranking with wins. So if margin of victory was included in the initial RPI, wouldn't coaches have just left their starters in the game in early season games and tried to win by 50? Would that have helped to tell us anything about which of those teams was best? Interestingly, as Gasaway notes in the Prospectus piece, the exclusion of margin of victory in the RPI has "created the perfect conditions under which scoring margin, adjusted for strength of schedule, could and has become a surpassingly powerful evaluative tool. But those of us who use that tool should acknowledge the analytic free ride we've been given, courtesy of Van Valkenburg. The stats we're able to deploy in 2012 are great at evaluating teams -- but the only teams we've ever been able to evaluate have been ones striving to look good to Jim Van Valkenburg, and not to us."

Also of note from the article: "Today when Van Valkenburg's invention is faulted on the grounds that it doesn't perform as well as other rating systems that benefit from more recent advances, an oddly prevalent response is that the NCAA "isn't trying to predict anything." Gasaway goes on to say that it seems odd to him the NCAA wouldn't want to improve upon its own formulas between seasons, but I couldn't help but be struck by the above quote, because I agree with it wholeheartedly. I hate the RPI, and have since I've been old enough to grasp what it is. But when selecting teams for the NCAA Tournament, I don't think the NCAA should be "trying to predict anything". It should be selecting for at-large bids the 38 teams that have earned it more than others. Of course, who has "earned" it most is weak language because it could be interpreted in many ways, but I think first and foremost to "earning" a berth in the tournament should be winning. And so it occurred to me that while the Jeff Sagarins and Ken Pomeroys of the world may have better systems for showing us which teams are the best in the country (I believe they do), their systems may not be any better than the RPI for selecting tournament teams, because they are meant to be predictive. I don't care how well the numbers think a team like Minnesota will perform if given a shot, I care whether the team's results from the season warrant being given a shot. So I decided to do a comparison between the ratings systems.

There are 38 at-large bids given out in the NCAA Tournament. So I looked at the top 38 teams in the RPI (as according to realtimerpi.com), Sagarin and Kenpom ratings. Of course, several of those teams will win their conference tournaments and receive automatic bids. To account for those teams, I removed any team that was in first place in its conference as of games played Feb. 22, and used the top 38 excluding those teams. Here were the final 15 teams to make the bracket from each rating system:

From looking that list over, one thing becomes abundantly clear quickly: the RPI is grossly overrating the Conference-USA. In the RPI, the C-USA would be getting four teams into the tournament (Southern Miss is rated 11th! and Memphis is 27th), including a 17-10 Marshall squad whose best win this season is a 65-64 triumph at home over UCF. Um, no. Also, the RPI has St. Joseph's making the tournament, an 18-11 team out of the A-10 with essentially the same resume' as Dayton, but less quality wins. Clearly, the RPI is not a very good system for placing these teams in the tournament.

But a quick glance at the Kenpom final 15 doesn't exactly set one's mind at ease. Two names jump off the page from the Pomeroy final 15: La Salle and South Dakota St. Pomeroy has been championing the Explorers out of the A-10 as one of the nation's most underrated teams, but they are just 18-10 (7-6 in the A-10) with losses to Robert Morris, Delaware, Dayton, Richmond and St. Joe's. Doesn't look like a tournament team to me. And South Dakota State has gone 22-7 on the season, but they play in the Summit League. They have lost to 12-14 North Dakota by 19 points, 15-14 Oakland, and (wait for it) a 9-17 South Dakota team. I'm sure the battle for South Dakota is as intense as any rivalry in the country, but South Dakota is 4-12 in the Summit this year. Maybe if SDSU's record were more like 26-3, you could forgive them a loss like that. But 22-7? I don't think so.

In Sagarin's final 15, the largest disturbance for me is in the five consecutive Big East teams near the top. In addition to those, Sagarin has four rated above them receiving bids. His nine Big East teams do not include South Florida, a team that sits third in the conference standings and in the eyes of the committee is probably ahead of at least a couple of those teams in the final 15. So according to those rankings, NINE OR TEN BIG EAST TEAMS SHOULD MAKE THE TOURNAMENT THIS YEAR. THE BIG EAST IS NOT VERY GOOD THIS YEAR! Come on. Looking at the Big East standings doesn't do anything to assuage the discomfort. The team currently sitting 10th is West Virginia (17-11, 7-8 Big East). Perfect resume' for sneaking into a 10 or 11 seed. Ugh. The other issue I see in Sagarin's is one that pops up in Kenpom as well. San Diego State is rated by both of them as barely making the tournament. In Kenpom, the Aztecs are actually the last team to make the field. Sure, SDSU has suffered some bad losses of late and fallen off a bit, but that is still insane! They are so far superior to the teams surrounding them in each of those ratings (Northwestern, South Dakota State, Minnesota, Southern Miss), that this almost looks like a joke.

In addition to all this, if Murray State were to lose its conference tournament, it would not receive an at-large bid according to Kenpom's numbers (currently rated 56, San Diego St. is 57), and would be right on the borderline for Sagarin (currently 46, Illinois is 55). That is ridiculous. I don't think there is much doubt the Racers have proven they belong comfortably in the tournament, not on the bubble (let alone off it). Of course, the RPI would have three Pac-12 teams making the field (absurd), and would be setting Colorado State as a six or seven seed. The Rams (17-9, 6-5) have had a couple great wins in the Mountain West, but should not be considered a tournament team yet.

Interesting to me is that all three systems have Miami of Florida making the field relatively comfortably (a nine or 10 seed). The U certainly qualifies as a bubble team at the moment, but at 16-10 overall and 7-6 in the ACC with exactly zero good wins on its resume' (best so far are wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech), the Hurricanes should not be considered an easy choice right now (as they seem to be by all three ratings systems). Maybe Miami actually is better than it seems, though, if three different methods of looking at them come out relatively positive.

I realize that neither Jim Van Valkenberg, Ken Pomeroy nor Jeff Sagarin would say the best way to make tournament selections would be to simply run down their list and pick them in order. Pomeroy has said as much and Van Valkenberg's son says the same in the Prospectus piece. I know am pretty sure all those men would believe that Murray State and San Diego State are easy tournament calls.

But that wasn't the point of this post. Yes, the RPI is horrible. But when it comes to its supposed principal use, selecting tournament teams, all of our advanced metrics from today aren't much better at doing the job.