A March Madness Mid-Major Extravaganza

We've made it through Championship Week. The 68 team bracket is out. Like most years, it contains its disappoints and its surprises. But there's no time to dwell on that nonsense anymore. Games start today, and while today and Wednesday's games don't feature any teams that I'll be picking to make the Final Four, one of them will showcase two teams that have been on and off the my Mid-Major Report all season long. And while the key to winning online contests like ESPN's Tournament Challenge is more about getting all the picks correct from the Elite Eight on, way more bragging rights can be gained from picking the big 13 over 4 or 12 over 5 upset early on, or correctly choosing a 10 or 11 seed to advance to the Sweet 16. So here we are, on the precipice of the dance, and here are some teams to keep your eye on, outside of the top eight seeds.

Iona
The Gaels do not belong on the tournament; let's get that out of the way. However, now that they have been selected, they should be taken very seriously. Iona boasts one of the best offenses in the country. Featuring the leader in the country in assists per game this season, Scott Machado, the Gaels seem to have 100 different guys that can just shoot the ball extremely well. It is why their field goal percentage has been in the top five all season long. Machado and Momo Jones will both likely be NBA players before it is all said an done. Any mid-major team with that kind of talent is going to be dangerous for an upset (over the past two years, Butler has lost two players to the NBA. They were a pretty decent mid-major squad). The bad news for the Gaels in this tournament is that they will have to get through a very good BYU team in order to even have a chance at an upset. The good news? If Iona does manage to dispatch the Cougars, they play Marquette in the second round. Marquette is an excellent team, but not one with great size. Marquette will not likely be able to exploit its athleticism against Iona, so size would be the next best option. But without much in the way of great big men (just great forwards), Marquette could be vulnerable here.

Davidson
My love for this Wildcats team is irrational. But I can't help it. Watching them play is just so much fun. They are a true team, getting contributions from every position, eight players deep. They have two excellent players in Demon Brooks and Jake Cohen, and a classic short-white-guard-who-shouldn't-be-good-but-is-because-he's-crafty player in Nik Cochran. And guess what? The Wildcats get to play Louisville in the first round. Yes, Louisville got hot and won the Big East Tournament, but it was one of the worst Big East Tournaments ever, and it's pretty common to have a hangover after winning all those games on consecutive days. Plus, the Cardinals might even be undersized playing against Davidson. I see this game as one going down to the wire. The key to me is whether Cohen can avoid foul trouble. The two games I've seen Davidson play this year, he has been unstoppable, but picked up too many fouls to keep playing. He must avoid that to give Davidson its best chance.

Long Beach State
Yep, the 12, 13 and 14 seeds all from the same region are teams to watch out for. It almost certainly won't happen, but how cool would it be if these teams all played on the weekend with a shot at the Sweet 16? Long Beach State played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country in the non-conference, and then ran through its conference play to a Big West title. As a result, the 49ers will not be even a little bit scared of New Mexico in the second round of the tournament. We all know about Casper Ware and what a great player he is (I hope), but what I really like about LBSU in the tournament is the team's coach, Dan Monson. Monson was Gonzaga's coach before Mark Few took over and was at the helm of the team when it made its first run as a Cinderella to the Elite Eight. Since then, Gonzaga has vaulted onto the national scene and recruits with the best in the country. Monson moved on to coach Minnesota, and had only limited success. Now, he's back where he belongs in the mid-major ranks, and doing extremely well again.

South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits are an excellent mid-major team led by an unbelievable guard in Nate Wolters. What is most impressive about Wolters is that he gets most of his scoring done inside the three-point line. He's not just an unbelievable shooter who can bomb it all day; he's a crafty, quicker-and-faster-than-you-think guard who can get to the rim, dish the ball effectively and also grab boards. It also helps that Wolters can rely on his teammates to knock down jump shots, like they did in the Summit League final to punch a ticket to the dance. South Dakota State has an interesting matchup in its first game of the tournament: Baylor. On the one hand, Baylor is very big, talented and athletic; that is what we saw when it beat Kansas in the Big-12 Tournament. On the other hand, Baylor has looked like one of the softer teams in the country this season--that is what we saw when the Bears lost to Kansas State and Iowa State this season (not bad teams by an stretch, but it just seemed like Baylor was weak in those games). So if South Dakota State runs into the right Baylor team Thursday, look out.

Montana
I was hoping and praying that Weber State would beat Montana in the Big Sky Finals, because Damian Lillard is amazing to watch. But the Grizz blew Weber State out and showed that there is no doubt they should be the team representing that conference in the tournament. Montana is another well-balanced group, and they have an excellent matchup in the first round: Wisconsin. Montana is like a small-conference doppelganger for Wisconsin, from what I've seen. Both get pretty balance scoring from a variety of players, and the big men can shoot the three as well as the guards. Montana doesn't have anybody quite as good as Jordan Taylor or Jared Berggren, but a strong shooting day could easily have them moving on. I've seen enough of Wisconsin's offensive disappearing to know that any day could be a 45-point performance.

St. Bonaventure
Another mid-major I like based solely on the matchup in the second round. Florida State is an excellent team, especially on defense. But to say that they can be offensively challenged would be a colossal understatement. The Seminoles have scored under 50 points three times this season, including an abysmal 41-point performance on a neutral court in a loss to Harvard. They've scored under 60 points another handful of times. Their inconsistency on offense just doesn't inspire much confidence. On the other hand, Andrew Nicholson has had four 30-point games this season. If the right intersection of those two things happen (FSU struggling shooting, Nicholson going off), the Bonnies could be playing on Sunday.

So, a 12 seed, two 13 seeds and three 14 seeds? Yup. It seems crazy just to look at that sentence. But all of those are real possibilities. That stems from the fact that we have great mid-major teams, but moreso from the fact that beyond the 1 and 2 seeds (other than Duke, which could definitely lose to Lehigh in the second round), there is no team that strikes me as good. There is no team that got screwed into a three seed, or had a rough patch but is actually an awesome team that will make a run. None of them make me shake in my little space boots, and that means they won't have their mid-major counterparts shaking either.

Mid-Major Report: 2/27

For the second week in a row, the No. 1 team in the Mid-Major report has gone a disappointing 0-2, and the rankings have shaken again. I wrote about a month ago in a report about how incredible it was that we had so many mid-major teams delivering the season-long performances that they were: Murray State undefeated, Creighton, San Diego State, Harvard and Saint Mary's with two losses, Wichita State and UNLV with just three apiece. Now as we enter the final week of regular season play (some teams have already finished their regular seasons), many of those teams have come back to a more normal level. With New Mexico's losses, the best three teams from the Mountain West have six losses each. Saint Mary's and Creighton have five. Harvard has four. These teams are all still excellent, but those records are much more typical of the best mid-major teams in a given season. Should we be concerned about the fact that most of these teams have accrued half or more of their losses in the latter part of the season? In some cases, absolutely (Creighton, San Diego State). In others, I wouldn't fret too much.

As always, check out the initial mid-major report for information on how I make my ranking decisions.

Dropped Out: Saint Louis (0-1 last week lost at Rhode Island), Temple (1-1 last week, lost by 10 to St. Joe's), Harvard (1-1 last week, lost at home to Penn)
Outside looking in: San Diego State, Long Beach State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee, Weber State

10. Iona (23-6, 53rd in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
The Gaels are back! Having locked up the MAAC regular season championship (at 14-3, they have a two game lead with one game to play) on the strength of a four-game win-streak, Iona has done just about as well as it could to secure an at-large bid in the tournament. Unfortunately, I don't the selection committee will be inviting the Gaels unless they win the MAAC Tournament. Which is why everyone needs to root for Iona in the next week and a half. There are certain teams you can watch and know that they are the real deal, that they would play well against just about anybody in the country; Iona is one of those teams. It is the highest scoring team in the nation (82.9 points per game), shoots just under 50 percent for the season, and has the nations leading assists man in Scott Machado (10 assists per game). Iona plays an entertaining, up-tempo style and can score with anyone in the country. It is a team good enough to get an at-large bid, but I suspect its strength of schedule and lack of good wins will doom Iona if it does not win its conference tournament.

9. Virginia Commonwealth (25-6, 47 Pomeroy)
My dad has been blindly biased toward the Colonial Athletic Association for a couple years now. Certainly, it has been an exemplary mid-major conference, with two different teams making the final four and receiving multiple bids to the tournament several times in the past ten years. This year, my dad's love for the CAA is burning as bright as ever, but the rest of the country (myself included) is not sold on them. Particularly in terms of RPI (flawed, but it is a method of measure), the CAA looks pretty bad. But Virginia Commonwealth has now won 14 of its last 15 games (the one loss was on a 30 foot buzzer-beater to George Mason), and seems to be playing pretty well. In past years, a 25-6 record would have VCU as a lock in the tournament, no questions asked. But this year, Shaka Smart's team decided to play an extremely weak schedule, and lose the only games it did play against decent competition (Seton Hall, Alabama, Drexel). Still, looking at the bubble tells me the Rams should have done enough so far to qualify for an at-large bid. South Florida has currently played its way into a bid, according to Joe Lunardi; VCU beat USF by 25 early in the season. VCU also happens to be much hotter right now that USF has been at any point this year. But the weak schedule will kill them. In my mind, unless VCU is able to advance as far as the conference championship game (not making it there would mean another loss to a weaker CAA team), it will be overlooked come Selection Sunday.

8. Brigham Young (24-7, 38 Pomeroy)
The Cougars lost (unsurprisingly) at Gonzaga last week, but came back and closed out their season with a 76-66 win against Portland. While the loss to Gonzaga means BYU finished third instead of second in the WCC, the win afterward still rounded out a fine season post-Jimmer Fredette for BYU. The Cougars can score with the best of the country (79 points per game), and are a dangerous three-point shooting team, which is always something to watch out for come tournament time. They play one of the most up-tempo styles in the country and actually have a pretty good defense to go along with it (22nd in adjusted defense at kenpom). If the Cougars can pick up a win over Gonzaga or St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament, it would do wonders for the team's seeding when the NCAA Tournament is picked.

7. New Mexico (22-6, 15 Pomeroy)
Last week, after beating San Diego State and UNLV, I wrote that New Mexico finally appeared to be living up to its lofty ranking at kenpom.com. After losing to Colorado State and TCU this week, however, I don't think there can be much doubt that the Lobos are a team that has just played to Pomeroy's system well, and not a top 15 (or earlier, top 10) team in the country. New Mexico is still a good team, and could get back on track with some wins in the Mountain West Tournament, but you have to be concerned about a group that can take a two-game lead in the conference with just four games to play, then give that lead up in its next two games. I'm concerned about a team that can't close, whether its during an individual game or in a season-long competition. New Mexico had its shot to close UNLV and SDSU out, but couldn't get the job done against mediocre competition.

6. Saint Mary's (25-5, 40 Pomeroy)
The other Gaels return to the list at number six by closing out their season with wins at Portland and at San Francisco. Knocking St. Mary's off the list last week was perhaps a bit strong, but they had the committee worried with losses in three of four games. Picking up wins on the road and securing the West Coast Conference title offered some assurance that St. Mary's has mostly righted the ship. Winning the WCC Tournament or at least losing to Gonzaga in the finals would offer even more assurance that St. Mary's is back. This teams remains one of my favorite mid-majors as far as watching them play. The Gaels play a real team game, with solid players at every position. They have an excellent general in Matthew Dellavedova, and with all their experience, I believe the Gaels will correct their mistakes and be strong as ever heading into the NCAAs.

5. Creighton (25-5, 39 Pomeroy)
After a 102-74 thrashing of Illinois State at home, Creighton has not exactly been inspiring. Their seven games since that win to close out the season: Lost 65-62 at Northern Iowa, lost 65-57 at Evansville, lost 89-68 home to Wichita State, won 88-69 at Southern Illinois, won 81-79 home to Long Beach State, won 93-92 (OT) home to Evansville, won 61-60 at Indiana State. Sure, Creighton recovered from its three straight losses and got four straight wins, but the final three were all escapes. Needing overtime to beat Evansville at home does not inspire confidence. The Blue Jays will (and should) be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament (maybe a 6 seed?) but unless they show me something in the MVC Tournament, I will be avoiding them like the plague come tournament time. They are playing mediocre basketball at the wrong time.

4. UNLV (24-6, 31 Pomeroy)
After its disappointing two-loss week while at No. 1 in the MMR, UNLV did what New Mexico could not this week: beat the weaker teams in the conference. The Rebels beat Boise State and Air Force at home, and pulled level in the Mountain West standings. Who knows what is going to happen in that conference now? No team has been willing or able to step up and take the title for itself. And none of the top three play each other the rest of the regular season. So it will be all about who can beat the lesser teams. UNLV may have the toughest road of the three to winning out, with games against Colorado State (beaten New Mexico and SDSU this season) and Wyoming (beat UNLV earlier). It's time to really see what these MWC teams are made of.

3. Drexel (25-5, 45 Pomeroy)
When discussing VCU, we discussed the CAA. If Drexel does not win the CAA tournament and does not get an at-large bid, we will have our biggest snub of the year without question. The fact that scenario is even a possibility is insane to me. Even if we are accepting that the CAA is not as good as it has been in years past, it is at least still decent competition. And Drexel finished its season with 17 straight wins, most if it against that decent competition. What else is there a team can do to earn itself a bid than win incessantly. The Dragons are very good this year. Their two losses in the conference came early in the season when they were not at full strength. It's been almost two months since they suffered a loss. Give Drexel its due, please.

2. Murray State (28-1, 48 Pomeroy)
I was expecting it to take much longer for the Racers to climb this high in the MMR so quickly. But once again, they've been winning while everybody else (almost) has been losing. The Racers closed their season with wins at Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech, and now we need to root for them to win the OVC Tournament. Another team from that conference winning would be a disaster for the bubble, and that team would just be heading to the tourney to get thrashed. Just a couple more wins, Murray State. They've been doing it all year, so a couple more shouldn't be too much to ask.

1. Wichita State (26-4, 8 Pomeroy)
Are the Shockers really a top 10 team in the country? After seeing them and some of the teams surrounding them in the kenpom rankings (North Carolina, Wisconsin, Missouri, Duke, Georgetown), I'm starting to believe. The Shockers finishe 26-4 and won the Missouri Valley Conference on the strength of wins at Illinois State and home against Drake last week. The way they have finished this season, an MVC Tournament Championship would put them in the 3-seed tier in my mind. After losing at home to Creighton on New Year's Eve, Wichita has won 16 of 17, and looked good doing it. They start four seniors and a junior, and have six different players who can be relied on to score in double figures in a given game. Watch out, March. The Shockers look primed to make some noise.

Mid-Major Report: 2/6

We've made it to February, and college basketball is getting wild. Instead of waiting for Bracketbusters games to take place, the mid-majors of the world decided to turn in a crazy slate of results a couple weeks in advance, which will only serve to make the Bracketbusters games more intriguing. Four teams inside the top 10 lost games last week, while several others sitting just outside also suffered losses and cost themselves a shot at making it into the rankings.

As always, refer to the first report of the year for information on how I come up with these rankings.

Dropped Out: Nevada (1-1 last week, lost at home to Idaho), Oral Roberts (1-1, lost at South Dakota State)
Outside looking in: Temple, Long Beach State, Drexel, Cleveland State, VCU

10. Southern Mississippi (20-3, 45th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Southern Miss makes it's glorious return to the top 10 on the wings of a five game win streak in the Conference-USA. The Golden Eagles dispatched Central Florida away from home and avenged their only C-USA loss by beating Memphis last week. With a strong close to the season (one, maybe two more losses), Southern Miss could be looking at an at-large bid (currently a nine-seed in bracketology, but as the automatic bid for C-USA. No telling where they would be if they didn't have the conference lead at the moment). The decision to include Southern Miss over Temple and Long Beach State was a tough one, but since USM's only loss since November was a two-pointer at Memphis, they got the benefit of the doubt.

9. Brigham Young (20-6, 33 Pomeroy)
The Cougars are back after turning in a strong week with the best win of any team in the top 10. After being beaten up by St. Mary's, the Cougars rebounded and beat Gonzaga by 10 and won by 19 at Portland. Two impressive results were enough to get them back into the top 10. Joe Lunardi felt the Cougars did deserved a nod as well, as he moved them into his NCAA Tournament field in the most recent Bracketology. With the excellent front line of forwards Noah Hartsock (17.6 points per game) and Brandon Davies (14.4 ppg and 8 rebounds per game), if BYU can close out the season strong, they'll be primed to make the tournament and perhaps make some noise with an upset or two.

8.. Wichita State (20-4, 16 Pomeroy)
The Shockers took care of business at Missouri State and at home against Indiana State in two close games, and so maintained their ranking for another week. Make no mistake, Wichita is the real deal. I don't know who Wichita State will be playing in the first round of the tournament, but I'm almost certain I'll be picking them to win the game. They are not 16th best in the country, as kenpom.com's team rankings indicate, but they are a top-30 team. They are ranked in the top 50 in the country in most important statistical categories, and are especially well-liked by the advanced metrics like adjusted offense and defense (13th and 25th, respectively). Don't sleep on the Shockers.

7. UNLV (21-4, 18 Pomeroy)
The Rebels stumbled at Wyoming last week, taking a 68-66 defeat after having two great looks to tie/win the game. This came as a pretty disappointing loss after UNLV was looking good to run through the Mountain West right up to its rematch with San Diego State. But after the loss to Wyoming, I have a bit of concern about the Rebels' ability to win on the road. Despite a nice road win at Illinois earlier in the year, all four of UNLV's losses have come on the road, and they've needed overtime to beat UC Santa-Barbara, Air Force and Boise State away from home. Not exactly some top competition there. Luckily for UNLV, you don't have to win on the road to win in the NCAA Tournament, and they will be there. They might do well to go for some wins in their remaining road games at New Mexico, Texas Christian and Colorado State, though, or it could kill their seeding.

6. Harvard (20-2, 38 Pomeroy)
Coming in at sixth and back in the Top 25 of the coaches poll is Harvard. Now riding an eight game win streak, the Crimson are still undefeated in the Ivy League and have a tiebreak advantage to pad their one-game lead over second-place Yale. Avoiding a hiccup at Pennsylvania will be key for Harvard in the upcoming week. Penn was the team that undid Harvard's season a year ago, and they will be looking to bring some of the same magic to this matchup. Harvard's defense is still among the best in the country (21st in adjusted-defense), and kept it up against Cornell and Columbia last week, holding the opponents to 60 and 52 points.

5. Creighton (21-3, 24 Pomeroy)
The Blue Jays lost a second game in the Missouri Valley Conference and are now tied with Wichita State with a game still to play against the Shockers. Creighton's decline with a loss this week was not as precipitous as some drops in the past in these rankings because it came on a buzzer-beater away from home. A quick look at Creighton's 65-62 loss at Northern Iowa and it looks more like a fluke than an indication of Creighton being exposed. The top team in the country for field-goal percentage at 51.2 percent, Creighton shot just 42.1 percent at Northern Iowa and scored 62 points, compared to its season average of 81 per game (sixth in the country). Similar to the Blue Jays' Dec. 28 loss to Missouri State, this just looks like a game in which they struggled shooting, and it resulted in a close game that they couldn't quite win in the end. It does, however, make the teams Feb. 11 rematch with Wichita State extremely important. The winner will almost certainly win the MVC regular season.

4. New Mexico (19-4, 10 Pomeroy)
Despite being terrifically overrated by kenpom.com's system (10th is the highest any team has been in the report this year, and its a whopping 13 spots higher than NM was last week), New Mexico does appear to have righted the ship and be very good. Whereas UNLV required overtime to beat both Air Force and Boise State on the road, New Mexico dealt with both teams easily last week, winning by 39 and 16 points, respectively. The Lobos have the 29th best adjusted-offense and 12th best adjusted-defense in the country. That's the good news. The bad news? The next four games are against Wyoming, at San Diego State, home against UNLV, and at Colorado State. Not what one would call a friendly stretch, and it produced New Mexico's only two losses in the Mountain West last time.

3. San Diego State (20-3, 63 Pomeroy)
Despite a 2-0 week, SDSU dropped 10 more spots at kenpom.com, most likely due in large part to a two point squeak-by of Boise State at home. Still, the Aztecs are alone atop the Mountain West again and that is no small feat. The numbers continue to not back up the 20-3 record SDSU is sporting, and yet Steve Fischer's squad keeps on winning, which is why numbers are not all we can look at in sports. New Mexico has a tough stretch coming up but so does San Diego State. First the Aztecs will travel to UNLV for a rematch, and UNLV will be hungry afer losing by two in the first meeting. Then its a home game against New Mexico. Whatever SDSU has accomplished so far, it could fall apart pretty quickly if they don't get up for the next two games. Such is life in the MWC.

2. Saint Mary's (22-2, 26 Pomeroy)
If a tournament were organized of the 10 teams on this list plus the six best mid-major teams after them, I would probably be picking St. Mary's to win it all. Now up to a 12 game winning streak after a rest week with just one game against San Diego last week, the Gaels have been extremely impressive this season. In the latest Bracketology, they were given only a five seed, which seemed too low to me. The good news for the Gaels is they will have two golden opportunities to improve on that seeding in the coming weeks. With games at Gonzaga and Murray State, St. Mary's still has a couple very challenging tests ahead. Can Matthew Dellavedova continue being the best guard on the court when he's matching up against Kevin Pangos and Isaiah Canaan? If so, this team is headed for a two or three seed in the tourney.

1. Murray State (23-0, 61 Pomeroy)
Another week, another couple wins for the Racers, and a further decline in the Ken Pomeroy rankings. Why? Because beating teams like Southest Missouri State and Tennessee-Martin doesn't count for much in those rankings unless the win is by 30 or more. Which is valid. The good news for the Racers is I don't think anyone is buying into that number 61 next to their names. And maybe people are buying in the number 9 assigned to them in the coach's poll either, but they should at least realized Murray State isn't far from there. You just don't get to 23-0 without being really good. Sure, the 309th-ranked strength of schedule might make it easier, but teams like Dayton, Southern Miss, Western Kentucky and Memphis wouldn't take too kindly to you calling them cream puffs. If you're not sold on Murray, just wait another week and a half. Watch the game against Saint Mary's. Even if they lose, I'm guessing you'll be impressed.

Mid-Major Report: 1/31

Here we are at the end of January, and we suffered a major shake-up in the past seven days of basketball at the mid-major level. Several teams lost their first games in weeks, others looking to crack the top-10 fell apart, and with the announcement of the Bracketbusters games yesterday, it's looking like we could be in for some crazy results later in the year. As always, refer to the first report of the year for information on how these rankings are determined.

Dropped out: Iona (2-1 on the week, lost at Siena), Middle Tennessee (1-1, lost at Vanderbilt)
Outside looking in: Long Beach State, Southern Miss Drexel, Cleveland State, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth

10. Nevada (18-3, 90th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings)
The Wolfpack have been hovering outside the top 10 since the very first mid-major report, mainly because they have not beaten anybody good this year (the team's three losses have come in its three toughest tests against Missouri State, UNLV and BYU). But riding a 15-game winning streak, Nevada saw enough teams stumble in the past week to crack our list. In both classic and advanced statistics, the Wolfpack look mediocre at best. The only category on either ESPN or kenpom.com in which they rank better than 80th is in "luck" at kenpom. This is a stat meant to communicate how much a team has positively deviated from its expectation based on his other statistics. So with the sixth best "luck" rating in the country, Nevada would have been expected to have three or four more losses by now. But they don't. And with 15 in a row and 18-3, the Wolfpack are exactly where they belong: in the top-10 for the first time this year.

9. New Mexico (17-4, 23 Pomeroy)
The Lobos got a bit of a raw deal in dropping out last week after a really tough 1-2 punch in games against San Diego State and UNLV. But they bounced back this week with two dominant wins in the Mountain West, and have made their way back into the top 10 through the attrition of some tough losses by other teams. The Lobos are well-liked by Pomeroy's system, with a top-40 adjusted-offense and defense. They are also 10th in the nation in averaging 17 assists per game. New Mexico will enjoy one more week of relatively easy games, then hits a brutal five game stretch in which they play the five of the top six Mountain West teams in a row (New Mexico is the one top-six team that New Mexico won't be playing during that stretch). To entertain any hopes of an at-large bid, between now and Feb. 26, when that stretch is over, I would think the Lobos should plan on going no worse than 5-2.

8. Wichita State (18-4, 12 Pomeroy)
The Shockers just about killed their chances of a Missouri Valley Conference regular season title with a triple-overtime loss at Drake Saturday. That loss is also why they've dropped three spots in the rankings this week, but it wasn't enough to knock them out. Wichita is still an elite mid-major program, and it is still loved irrationally by the formula used at kenpom.com. We'll see if Wichita can show its top-20 adjusted-offensive and defensive ratings are no fluke, as the Shockers are now going to start the toughest stretch of their season. They will play every other MVC team that has looked tough this year, including at Creighton, as well as play a tough Bracketbusters game at Davidson.

7. Oral Roberts (20-4, 68 Pomeroy)
With the dropping of Middle Tennessee this week after it lost a game it was expected to lose at Vanderbilt, Oral Roberts has become the darlings of this Top 10. The Golden Eagles are playing nobody good in the Summit League, but they've won 13 straight. They are still one of the best shooting teams in the country, at almost 49 percent from the field on the season. They also possess the 19th-best adjusted-offense in the country. That offense will have to carry Oral Roberts in a make-or-break week upcoming. The team plays road games at the 2nd and 3rd-place teams in the Summit League (South Dakota State and North Dakota State). At 17-6 and 9-2 in the conference, SDSU is actually going to be a very tough opponent. With two wins this week, the Golden Eagles will have a very legitimate shot at running the table in the conference.

6. Harvard (18-2, 29 Pomeroy)
The Crimson are back on the rise in our Mid-Major Report, as they're beginning to pile up wins again. With two easy road wins last week, Harvard has won six in a row and is looking good doing it. Contrary to most of the teams that have populated our ranking throughout this season, Harvard makes its mark on defense. A look at just about any offensive stat for the Crimson does not paint a pretty picture: 222nd in points-per-game, 261st in rebounding, 173rd in assists, 75th in adjusted-offense. But the adjusted-defense stat has the Crimson ranked 15th. Then take a look at their results this season. One team has scored 70 or more on Harvard this year. It was in an 80-70 win over Seattle. Harvard has also held nine opponents to less than 50 points this year. Remember what happened in the NFL this year, when all we cared about was offense, and then all the teams with good defenses (except the Patriots, whose defense has actually been better in the playoffs) are the ones winning when it matters? Yeah, don't sleep on good defense.

5. San Diego State (18-3, 53 Pomeroy)
The Aztecs finally took it on the chin. After beating the toughest teams in the Mountain West and looking like a contender for a 2-seed like they enjoyed last year, the Aztecs got stomped by 17 at Colorado State Saturday. And despite a nice 52-42 win at Wyoming, San Diego State has to drop significantly in this week's poll. Could this be the beginning of an unraveling for SDSU? Their numbers still aren't very impressive (31st in adjusted-defense doesn't exactly jump off the page at you, but it is the best SDSU has to offer as far as national ranking), and according to kenpom.com, they are another one of those teams with a high "luck" rating, as mentioned above when discussing Nevada. Still, I don't think it's time to panic. San Diego State has an excellent coach in Steve Fischer, and to win the games it has this season, clearly boasts some talent as well. Those two things are always going to be a deadly combination.

4. UNLV (20-3, 21 Pomeroy)
It was a bit of a rocky week for Las Vegas, needing overtime to beat both Boise State and Air Force, but in the end, UNLV ended up with two road wins and a winning streak of four games. As has been the case all season, UNLV is an elite offensive team. The Rebels average almost 81 points a game (ninth), 40 rebounds per game (15th) and 18 assists per game (fourth). They also are 17th-best in adjusted-offense. After a week of not-exactly-creampuff-but-UNLV-should-win games, The Rebels will get their shot at revenge against San Diego State, in what will be the key game in the Mountain West conference this season. Should be fun.

3. Saint Mary's (21-2, 22 Pomeroy)
2. Creighton (20-2, 27 Pomeroy)
There doesn't seem like much point in writing about these two teams differently right now. Both experienced their last loss in late December and have been rolling since. Both went 2-0 last week in relatively easy fashion (Saint Mary's probably a bit more impressive in beating BYU at BYU by 14). Both are virtually locks for the NCAA Tournament. Both picked up a good Bracketbusters game this weekend (Creighton versus Long Beach State, Saint Mary's at Murray State) which will serve to either help another team out or knock them up a seeding or two come tournament time. Just know that both of these teams would be contending for the regular season title regardless of what conference they were playing in this season. They are both really, really good.

1. Murray State (21-0, 47 Pomeroy)
Teams that have been ranked in the top 10 of the Mid-Major Report this season and lost since the first Report on December 12: Kent State, Wichita State, UNLV, Saint Louis, Brigham Young, Cleveland State, San Diego State, Harvard, Creighton, Saint Mary's, Middle Tennessee, Virginia Commonwealth, New Mexico, Iona, Wyoming, Southern Miss, Oral Roberts.
Teams that haven't lost since the first Mid-Major Report: Nevada (last loss Nov. 25), Murray State (last loss March 15).

Yup.

Mid-Major Report: 1/23

We're back on track with a Monday edition of the Mid-Major Report. There has been plenty of activity in the polls since last week's edition, and as conference play has kicked in and more teams have played tough home and road games, shakeups have continued. As always, refer to the first report of the season for information on how these rankings are determined.

After last week's edition, I received a request to list the teams that fell out of the rankings because it was difficult to keep track of which teams had lost their spots to newcomers. Well, ask and you shall receive. I'll add a quick blurb before the rankings start listing the teams that are just on the outside looking in, and the teams that dropped out and why. Without further ado, here they are.

Dropped Out: New Mexico (0-2 on the week, losses to UNLV and SDSU), BYU (14-point loss at home to Loyola Marymount)
Outside looking in: Dayton, Weber State, Nevada, George Mason, Southern Miss, Central Florida

10. Iona (15-4, 56th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings)
The Gaels of Iona are back in the 10th position after a week's hiatus. They hiccuped in a MAAC game against Manhattan (losing 75-72), but rebounded with 11 and 20-point home wins this week. The reason for the Gaels beating out other contenders for the final spot was due to their still-impressive offensive numbers. The Gaels are second in the country in scoring, first in assists per game, and fourth in field goal percentage. That allowed the Gaels to beat out Dayton, which only played one game last week.

9. Harvard (16-2, 38 Pomeroy)
Harvard makes its long-awaited return to the rankings as well this week. The Crimson has been hovering just outside the top 10 ever since its Jan. 3 loss at Fordham. After four straight wins however, Harvard is back. Harvard is among the country's best defensive teams, ranked 22nd in Adjusted defense on kenpom.com. The team also has an early season win over Florida State that is looking better and better as the Seminoles have beaten North Carolina and Duke in ACC play. While winning the Ivy League seems almost like an afterthought at the moment, if it weren't to happen because Yale or Penn got hot and went on a run, Harvard looks like it has an outside shot at an at-large bid.

8. Oral Roberts (16-4, 65 Pomeroy)
What's not to like about the Golden Eagles this season? With a nice win over Oakland last week, Oral Roberts extended its winning streak to 11 games. Three of the team's four losses are at West Virginia, at Oklahoma and at Gonzaga. They shoot the ball almost 48 percent from the field as a team, and have the 24th best adjusted offense in the country. The Summit League may not be especially tough, but a 10-0 mark in the league is never a number to sneer at. What's more, the Golden Eagles have already beaten the second place team (South Dakota State, 8-1 in the league) in their first matchup this year. This team is for real.

7. Middle Tennessee (19-2, 30 Pomeroy)
With double-digit wins against Arkansas State and at South Alabama, the train just kept on rolling at Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have now won 11 in a row, and are 8-0 in the Sun Belt conference. Perhaps most impressively, their games last week were good enough to jump 13 spots in the team rankings at kenpom.com from the last Mid-Major report. If the 13 spots were from 250 to 237, it wouldn't be as noteworthy. But 43 to 30? That suggests this team is well worth giving a look. Middle Tennessee is a team worth rooting for the rest of the year, because in a weak year for the Sun Belt conference (only four teams over .500 on the season), it will almost certainly be a one-bid conference. If that team isn't Middle Tennessee, it would be a shame.

6. UNLV (18-3, 17 Pomeroy)
The toughest decision made in these rankings was between the No. 6 and 5 teams for the week. UNLV and Wichita State are sporting extremely similar numbers for the year. Ultimately, UNLV lost out due to a more recent loss (even though it was to San Diego State). Still, sixth right now is nothing to be ashamed of. the Rebels are still sporting one of the top offenses in the country (81.5 points per game, 18.7 assists per game, ninth best adjusted offense) and secured the biggest win of the weak among all our contenders for the Mid-Major report. With a 17-point win over Mountain West contender New Mexico (in which UNLV was in control most of the game), UNLV let us all know that their non-conference performance was no fluke, and they'll be looking for vengeance when SDSU comes to town later in the year.

5. Wichita State (17-3, 9 Pomeroy)
Wichita delivered two more wins (at Northern Iowa, and a 43-point thrashing of Southern Illinois at home) and has now won seven in a row, with its lone conference blemish coming at the hands of Creighton. They have some extremely impressive numbers on kenpom.com, beyond the ninth team-ranking (which was largely helped this week by the 43-point win). The Shockers are 13th best in both adjusted offense and defense, are top-40 in points per game, rebounds per game and field goal percentage, and have a decent strength of schedule at 76th. Unless they fall apart, they would appear to be headed toward an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. And with continued strong play and a possible win at Creighton Feb. 11, they could be looking at a Missouri Valley Conference title.

4. Saint Mary's (19-2, 25 Pomeroy)
It was a relatively easy weak of games for Saint Mary's (versus Pepperdine and at Santa Clara), but the Gaels took care of business as they've been doing all year and have now won nine in a row. Saint Mary's is 8-0 in the West Coast Conference this year, no easy feat. The Gaels are top-35 in points and assists per game and shoot 48 percent from the field. Upcoming is a tough game at BYU, a team that would figure to be hungry after a disappointing loss to Loyola Marymount.

3. Creighton (18-2, 27 Pomeroy)
A change near the top! If you've been a follower of this blog, you'll know that No. 3 is Creighton's lowest ranking so far. And while last week the Blue Jays went 2-0 and avenged their lone Missouri Valley loss of the season (a 77-65 loss to Missouri State, avenged 66-65 at Missouri State), they dropped another spot due to the significant recent achievements of the No. 2 team. No reason to fret for Blue Jays fans, though. Creighton is still top-10 in points per game, assists per game and field goal percentage, and is still in the driver's seat to win the MVC regular season.

2. San Diego State (17-2, 55 Pomeroy)'
The team rankings at kenpom.com have received a great deal of flack this year for rating Wisconsin in the top-five almost all year, even when the Badgers lost three out of four games. Pomeroy addressed the situation saying he was frustrated by it, but that the Badgers represented an outlier whose results have managed to "beat" his system this season. I believe that, which is why I still use his rankings and information in this blog and for these reports. However, I would submit San Diego State as another team that has unfortunately "beaten" (or perhaps more accurately, fallen victim to) Pomeroy's rating system. At 17-2 and 3-0 in the Mountain West with wins over UNLV and at New Mexico, I don't think there is any debate that SDSU is better than the 55th-best team in the country. The Aztecs have been the most impressive of any team on this list in the past two weeks, notching the biggest wins of any team in consecutive weeks. Their numbers still don't jump off the page at you (66th in points per game, 44th in rebounding), but that's exactly why we can't be a slave to those sort of things. For now, the Aztecs are a dominant mid-major team, numbers or not.

1. Murray State (20-0, 42 Pomeroy)
The Racers won two more road games last week, at Morehead State and at SIU-Edwardsville. Both of those teams are bad, but Murray took care of business, as it has done all year long. Now the last unbeaten team in all of college basketball, Murray State did last week what Syracuse couldn't: win on the road. And while Notre Dame is always pretty good at home, Morehead State is always going to be a tough rivarly game for the Racers (They have been the best two teams in the OVC since seemingly forever, although not this year). And for that, the Racers deserve some respect. Here, they'll get it.

Mid-Major Report: 1/11

I apologize for the irregularity as to what day of the week these rankings are coming out. The goal is to have it on each Monday, but it falls entirely on what my work schedule for the week ends up looking like. That being said, it should never be later than a Wednesday (which is today).

As always, refer back to the first report of the season for guidelines on how I make my decisions.

First, a couple notes on this week's rankings:
1. I set out in the first report that I would be including some of the larger non-BCS leagues like the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West in my poll. Those teams have advantages over teams from the tiny conferences like the SWAC or MAAC, certainly, but they are still playing with rosters empty of McDonald's All-Americans and one-and-done type players. That being said, the point of this list is also to raise awareness about some teams that maybe a casual fan hasn't heard of. It's the type of thing that could be helpful picking an 8/9 game when you're filling out your NCAA bracket in March, or just to give you a little extra knowledge. And with that being the most important aspect to me, if the Mountain West continues its brutalization of this poll (three teams in last week, four this week), I will have to reassess whether or not I use that conference in my rankings anymore. Typically, the Mountain West has one or two teams doing very well, and others trying to put together a strong enough resume to get a bid in the tournament. The conference often has a third or fourth team on the bubble for the NCAAs. It is atypical, however for any conference, let alone the Mountain West, to have four teams with records of 14-2 or better. In fact, the Mountain West is the only conference in the country that can boast such a stat (the Big Ten (now Twelve) falls just short). That is why I'm confident (hopeful?) as the teams begin to play each other and hit a tougher schedule in general (Ahem, Wyoming and New Mexico), their records will normalize and it will make room for some of the other teams deserving of recognition.

2. Three teams fell out of the standings from being ranked last week: Saint Louis, Virginia Commonwealth and Harvard. You'll notice a similarity between all these teams: they lost last week. For VCU and Saint Louis, who were both in the bottom half of the poll, a loss is always going to hurt a team's chances of sticking around (VCU's two losses made it an easy decision). Perhaps for Harvard, though, dropping from fourth to nonexistent seems a bit harsh. Unfortunately for the Crimson, it had to happen. They lost at Fordham, a team that is by no means as bad as it has been the past few years, but is still just 7-8 on the season. And during the same week, tons of teams (unranked and ranked below Harvard in last week's poll) went on the road and won games against competition equal to or greater than Harvard. Keep in mind: it's tough to be in the top 10 of this poll. Using the larger mid-major conferences means there are a ton of deserving teams, and losses are always going to be hugely detrimental.

3. You may notice there are 11 teams in this week's poll. That's not a mistake. Call me a coward if you like, but I didn't have the heart to say one of the bottom four teams didn't deserve to be in. Last week's No. 10 team, Middle Tennessee, has probably the weakest resume of the group, but they were ranked last week, and went 2-0 since to improve to 15-2. They've now won seven in a row. Sorry, but the Blue Raiders deserve to stick around. Right, on to the rankings.

10. Middle Tennessee (15-2, 57 in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings) and Iona (13-3, 42 Pomeroy)
You just read the argument for Middle Tennessee: 15-2, seven in a row, undefeated in the conference and they still are one of the best shooting teams in the country; 49.5 percent on the year, good for 10th best. As far as Iona, they make the list because they are now 5-0 in the MAAC, and have won six of seven. Now that the Gaels have ended a long road trip (eight straight games away from home), they're showing that they're actually pretty good. Playing on the road is tougher than being at home. Iona could have taken an easier route and would probably be 15-1 right now. But they didn't, so they're 13-3. After a strong week of play, they'll get the credit they deserve, at least here. O yeah, Iona scores the second-most points in the country (85.9 a game), dishes out the most assists (20.2) and shoots it even better than their 10th-ranked compatriots (50.4 percent from the field).

9. Wichita State (13-3, 22 Pomeroy)
A 3-0 week with wins over Evansville, Southern Illinois and Illinois State has the Shockers back into the top 10 after a week's hiatus. They have rebounded well from the loss to Creighton, but will need to play at a higher level in the coming weeks to stay afloat in the Missouri Valley Conference, probably the second best non-BCS league in the country this year (competing with the A-10 right now for that spot). They are liked very much by Ken Pomeroy's rankings, with a good strength of schedule, and top-30 Adjusted-offense and defense.

8. Wyoming (14-2, 69 Pomeroy)
I wouldn't be surprised if this is the Cowboys' one and only appearance in the top-10 this year. They've played an uber-weak schedule so far (341 according to Pomeroy!), but that will change. They will see plenty of tough games in the upcoming conference schedule, starting with New Mexico this week. Wyoming is not especially impressive in any statistical category, but it is 14-2 on the season and has won 11 of its last 12 games. That is enough to earn them a spot at No. 8.

7. Southern Mississippi (15-2, 71 Pomeroy)
Another team that Ken Pomeroy's rankings are not crazy about, Southern Miss comes in at No. 7 mostly on the strength of its 11-game winning streak. The team is best in the Conference USA at the moment, and amidst a 2-0 week beat one of its top contenders, Tulane, on the road Jan. 7. If it wasn't obvious already, I'm impressed by road wins, especially in important games. For now, the Golden Eagles are hot, and they deserve a little recognition.

6. New Mexico (14-2, 23 Pomeroy)
Perhaps surprisingly, New Mexico is extremely high in Ken Pomeroy's rankings (coming a spot behind Wichita State) despite their horrific schedule strength. In the non-conference, the Lobos' opponents were good enough for 277th best, but their 15th best Adjusted-defense rating is going a long way. New Mexico also averages 17.3 assists-per-game, good for 10th in the country. Mid-majors that share the ball are always attractive to me, because they often don't have reliable 20-25 point scoring stars like some of the power-six teams. High assist numbers will generally mean the team is sound at moving the ball and therefore getting good looks--an indication that their success on offense stands a better chance of sustaining.

5. San Diego State (14-2, 74 Pomeroy)
I was a bit shocked to see the Aztecs had dropped 25 spots in Ken Pomeroy's ratings despite not losing a game, but then I saw their opponents last week. San Diego State beat up on the Hawks San Diego Christian (not a D-1 team) and then only managed to beat 0-16 Chicago State by eight points at home. (Chi-St. ranked 339 out of 345 by Pomeroy's numbers, meaning they might as well not be D-1 either). With an already pretty weak schedule, it is less surprising to see the steep decline in their computer ranking. The weak schedule, while it did not cause SDSU to drop, still hurt the team, as they were leapfrogged by the next team on the list. The Aztecs will have plenty of time to make it up, however, with a huge matchup with UNLV looming this weekend.

4. Saint Mary's (15-2, 24 Pomeroy)
"Gaels" becomes the first nickname to strike twice in the same week as Saint Mary's stayed strong this week and improved to 15-2 with a 2-0 performance. These Gaels have now won five in a row, and 13 of 14, with the one loss coming to still-undefeated Baylor. Not too shabby. They another team that shares the ball well, with 17.3 assists per game (ninth in the nation), and their Adjusted-offensive rating is 11th-best in Pomeroy's system. Saint Mary's jumped SDSU this week because their two wins (at San Diego and vs. San Francisco), while not especially impressive, are still significantly stronger than the two recorded by the Aztecs.

3. UNLV (16-2, 17 Pomeroy)
It gets boring from here on out in the poll if you've read before. None of last week's top-three did enough (or perhaps its better to say none of the three really did anything of note) to make any waves. In the next week, that should change. For now, however, Nevada Las-Vegas will have to stay content with being the highest-ranked Ken Pomeroy team to make the rankings. According to his ranking,, their AP poll rank, as well as UNLV's points, rebounds and assists-per-game averages, it is not a stretch to say they are the best mid-major team in the country. They'll have a chance to prove it this weekend, and the rest of the season against what looks to be a very tough Mountain West.

2. Creighton (14-2, 35 Pomeroy)
Creighton went 3-0 over the past week, even with a win over a pretty good Northern Iowa team. They've now won four in a row, and look like the class of the MVC with wins over the two teams that figure to be the Blue Jays' stiffest competition in the conference (Wichita and N. Iowa). They also are a top-10 scoring team in the country (81.9 ppg), second-best in assists 19.9 and top the nation in field goal percentage at the moment, shooting 51.1 percent from the field. With all that though, their four-game win streak is only one-fourth as long as the No. 1 team, meaning Creighton will have to live with No. 2 for another week.

1. Murray State (16-0, 31 Pomeroy)
Murray State beat Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay in the past week to improve to a perfect 16-0. Neither of those wins exactly jumps off the page at you, but the Racers earned their No. 1 spot by being undefeated and it's going to take more than wins over Northern Iowa or Cal-State Bakersfield in order to dethrone the Racers. The Racers' wins (and probably eventually losses) will continue to look weak by virtue of the conference they play in. Keep in mind that according to Pomeroy, they played the 105th-toughest non-conference schedule in the country. Of the teams in this week's poll, only UNLV (96th) and Iona (43rd) had tougher-rated non-conference schedules. And Murray State was the only team to run the table in that span. The Racers have earned every bit of this ranking.