Mid-Major Report: 2/21

After a fantastic Bracketbusters weekend, here we are again with the Mid-Major Report. Similar to last week, there have been some serious shake-ups regarding the rankings. With so many good teams playing each other, that was bound to happen. But the week also produced some extremely surprising results outside of Bracketbusters games, specifically in the Mountain West Conference. That is why we have a new number one team. Keep reading to see who they are. As always, refer to the first report of the year for information about how these rankings are achieved.

Dropped Out: San Diego State (0-2 last week, lost to New Mexico and Air Force), Saint Mary's (0-2 last week, lost to Loyola Marymount and at Murray State, have now lost three of four)
A very surprising duo to see fall from the rankings, considering two weeks ago I would have said neither one had a shot at dropping out. But then again, I didn't foresee results like these.
Outside Looking In: Iona, Long Beach State(had their shot at Creighton), George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Weber State

10. Saint Louis (22-5, 11th in Ken Pomeroy team rankings
The Billikens return to the Mid-Major Report after a six-week hiatus. They looked among the best mid-majors in the country early in the year, but then lost a couple games and couldn't string enough wins together to get back on top. Now, Saint Louis has won six in a row and nine of ten, including a win at Xavier during the stretch, to provide a little separation for itself from the teams behind it in the Atlantic 10 standings. The Billikens have been highly rated by kenpom.com's system the entire season (39th-ranked adjusted offense, 10th adjusted-defense, top-100 strength of schedule), and appear to be living up to their predictive billing now. With just three games left, the Billikens go on the road twice and play Xavier at home--not an easy road to the finish. But they look to be in good shape for a middling seed at the NCAA Tournament.

9. UNLV (22-6, 29 Pomeroy)
The Rebels were the number 1 team last week, mainly because I couldn't justify placing New Mexico ahead of them. Well, they quickly let me know I should have done just that by losing in overtime to TCU at home. And then they made sure to let the country know they weren't up to the task of being No. 1 by delivering their lowest offensive output on the season by 19 points, and getting trounced at New Mexico in the process. The high ranking from last week and win over San Diego State are all that barely kept the Rebels in the top 10. They are still a very good team, and Mike Moser is one of the very best players on any mid-major team in the country. The Rebels will recover, but last week was ugly.

8. Drexel (23-5, 46 Pomeroy)
The Drexel Dragons are making their debut in the Mid-Major top 10 on the strength of a 15-game winning streak (and they've won 21 of their last 22). After dealing with injuries at the beginning of the year, the Dragons are at full strength and atop the Colonial Athletic Association (tied with George Mason). The Colonial looks like a better conference than it has been given credit for this season, as it fared pretty well in Bracketbusters games (the top four teams in the conference all won, including Drexel by 20 at Cleveland State and Old Dominion at Missouri State). So at 14-2, the Dragons probably deserve more credit than they've been given so far. Despite middle of the road advanced metrics (66th adjusted-offense, 51st adjusted-defense), the Dragons looked very impressive Saturday and are hot as can be.

7. Creighton (23-5, 37 Pomeroy)
Creighton went 2-0 last week, but is barely in the top 10 after stealing its Bracketbusters game from Long Beach State. You can't help but feel like the Blue Jays would be gone if they had been unfortunate enough to have a road game instead of a home one. But they played at home, and with wins at Southern Illinois and over LBSU, they may have righted the ship. Sure, the Jays gave away the the Missouri Valley regular season, but they still have the best player in the conference in Doug McDermott, and with a run in the MVC Tournament, could play themselves back into good seeding in the NCAAs.

6. Harvard (23-3, 30 Pomeroy)
After the disappointing loss at Princeton last week, Harvard got back to what it does best (18th-ranked adjusted-defense), and gave up 42 and 51 points with wins over Brown and Yale last week. The win over Yale in particular was important because a loss would have meant the Crimson had fallen back to the pack in the Horizon League standings. But with the win it maintained a game advantage over Penn and extended its lead on Yale to two games. Harvard still has key games against Princeton and Penn (both at home) to come, so its fate is far from determined yet.

5. Temple (21-5, 31 Pomeroy)
It was a relatively pedestrian week for Temple, which enjoyed wins over A-10 middle-of-the-pack-ers St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. Still, two wins at this stage of the season always look good. With four games to play, Temple has one tough week (this week), and one that looks much simpler in closing out the season. The Owls play at LaSalle (a surprising 18-9, 7-5 in the A-10 this year) and then a rivalry game at St. Joseph's, which has also played above its expectations in the conference this year, posting an 8-5 mark so far. Both those games should be wins for Temple, but don't underestimate the upset potential of a road game against the other A-10 school from Philadelphia.

4. Brigham Young (23-6, 32 Pomeroy)
Yes, BYU has climbed to fourth in the rankings. Despite losing twice to Saint Mary's this year, the Cougars are in the top five, while the Gaels are outside the top 10. But guess what? BYU's record in the last two weeks is 4-0, and St. Mary's is 1-3. Sure, BYU's mark has come against lesser competition (at San Francisco (not bad) and at Santa Clara (terrible) last week), but these rankings are about who's playing well right now. The Gaels aren't. The Cougars seem to be. We'll find out just how well they're playing this week, when BYU visits Gonzaga Thursday. It will not be a game they are expected to win, but if BYU can pull off the upset, like New Mexico, we'll have to start taking them very seriously.

3. Murray State (26-1, 57 Pomeroy)
Everyone can go ahead and calm back down about whether the Racers are for real or not. Since its loss to Tennessee State, Murray State has gone 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 14 points. And if you didn't follow college basketball this weekend, Murray's most recent victory was a 14-point clubbing of Saint Mary's, in which the Racers took the lead and never looked back. For being the game most Bracketbusters aficionados were looking forward to, it was pretty anticlimactic. The Racers were really in control of a team that until about a week and a half ago I thought was the best mid-major in the country. So much for that. Even though kenpom.com will still never be able to fully give the Racers the love they deserve due to their run of close games and poor strength of schedule, they still jumped 11 spots in his rankings from last week. That's pretty significant this late in the season. And now, a running of the table has Murray back in the conversation for a top-5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

2. Wichita State (24-4, 10 Pomeroy)
In you were to ask me who was the most impressive team from Bracketbusters weekend, I would not hesitate in saying it was the Shockers. They appear to be living up to the lofty expectations kenpom.com has had for them for most of the season. On Saturday Wichita visited Davidson and matched up with a very impressive Wildcats squad (one that I suspect will be on these rankings most of next year; they bring all five starters back). After an extremely entertaining first half, the Shockers just imposed their will on Davidson en route to a 91-74 win. Wichita really looked excellent. It shot the ball extremely well, showed off its impressive depth and athleticism, and delivered a dominant offensive second half. These players--Joe Ragland, Toure' Murry, Ben Smith, David Kyles and Carl Hall, are as athletic a group as anywhere in America that I've seen this season. O, and not mentioned in that group is the Shockers' leading scorer and rebounder, 7-footer Garrett Stutz.

1. New Mexico (22-4, 9 Pomeroy)
In similar fashion to Wichita, New Mexico lived up to its advanced-metric hype this past week. At No. 2 last week, I said the Lobos would have to prove to me that they've changed since the beginning of the conference season. Well, prove themsevles they did. With a 10-point win at San Diego State and a 20-point win (and dominant defensive performance) at home against UNLV, the Lobos delivered the most impressive two-win week of any team in the Mid-Major Report this year. With losses by both SDSU and UNLV to other opponents during the week, New Mexico also seized control of the Mountain West regular season race, opening up a 2-game lead. They have the seventh-ranked adjusted-defense at kenpom.com and a star in Drew Gordon who is playing his best ball at the right time (17 points, 17 rebounds at SDSU, 27 points, 20 rebounds vs. UNLV). After a fantastic weekend of college basketball, New Mexico and The Pit sit at No. 1.

Mid-Major Report: 2/13

Upheaval! The strength at the top of the Mid-Major Report this season has been staggering, as several teams had put together significant win-streaks to get to the top and stay there for most of the season. Well, there's a new world order as we stare into the face of Bracketbusters week. Five of the top six teams from last week's report lost games this week. And with that, the top ten has been shaken like never before this season. The temptation was strong to drop four teams from the rankings this week so we could talk about a bunch of deserving newcomers, but that would have been ridiculous. Saint Mary's still deserves to be here So get ready to see some familiar faces, but in a whole new light. As always, you can refer to the first report of the year for information on how these rankings are achieved.

Dropped Out: Southern Miss (1-1 last week, last at 10-14 UAB)
Outside looking in: Drexel, VCU, George Mason, Saint Louis, Long Beach State

10. Creighton (21-5, 35th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Creighton is barely alive in this week's rankings after having a stranglehold on the top five all-season long. The Blue Jay's have now lost an almost inexplicable three games in a row. Their loss at Northern Iowa two weeks ago was not shocking; teams are almost always eventually going to lose a game like that when they don't play their best. But Creighton followed that up with a loss at Evansville and then a turd of a performance at home against Wichita State. In the process, they all but surrendered the Missouri Valley Conference title to the Shockers. It really has been a stunning turn of events, since the Blue Jays had easily beaten Wichita at Wichita over a month ago, and had looked just as good until February reared its head. Creighton is sporting one of the best offenses in the country, but that offense didn't show up at the same level against Northern Iowa and Evansville, and then when it was slightly better at home against Wichita State, the Blue Jays' 135-ranked adjusted-defense was exposed in giving up 89 points. Now, it's time for the Jays to draw a line in the sand. Continue free-falling, and they could unbelievably find themselves on the bubble. Right the ship, and they're still a comfortable six or seven seed.

9. Harvard (21-3, 37 Pomeroy)
Princeton got the best of Harvard again. What is up with this rivalry, that no matter how good Harvard seems to be, the Tigers have their number? Certainly, Princeton played well, shooting 50 percent from the field and going 17-24 from the foul line to Harvard's 7-11. The loss make's Harvard's situation with the NCAA Tournament much more precarious. Now with just a one-game lead in the Ivy League, losing the conference championship (the Ivy League does not hold a tournament) seems much more possible now, and would put Harvard in a similar situation to last year, when it did not receive an at-large bid. This team has gotten more recognition since the beginning of the season than last year's team did, since it was coming off a good season already. Harvard will have that going for it, but will it be enough? Probably best to just recover and win the next three games at home against Yale, Princeton and Penn, and secure the title.

8. Temple (19-5, 36 Pomeroy)
The Atlantic 10 is once again represented in the top 10. Temple sat just outside the rankings last week because despite a six-game win streak in the conference, they hadn't really beaten any of the teams that matter. Well, now that streak is up to eight, and with an easy dismantling of Xavier added to their resume, the Owls get the nod. Temple looks to be hitting its stride at the right time with Ryan Moore (18.8 ppg) and Khalif Wyatt (16.7) leading the way in scoring. Temple's 1-2 punch, along with the unflappable Juan Fernandez, gives them the 16th-best adjusted-offense in the country. And in typical Temple fashion, the Owls haven't shied away from tough competition this year. They have the 21st-rated strength of schedule in the country. And at 19-5 against that kind of competition, the Owls are to be taken seriously.

7. Murray State (24-1, 68 Pomeroy)
The Racers' six week run atop the Mid-Major Report is over. With a loss to Tennessee State at home, Murray State drops six spots in this week's poll. It was a bad loss, no question. And most writers have been chalking it up to the pressure of an undefeated season. Ken Pomeroy was bothered by this, and expressed as much in a post on his website. And while he doesn't discount the possibility of pressure playing a factor, he says the biggest reason they lost is more likely because win probabilities said there was no expectation of them continuing to win ("You play enough games in which you are heavily favored, and you are going to lose eventually. Put more precisely, a team that plays ten games as a 90% favorite is expected to lose once during that span, and the Racers have played a lot of such games this season, including the game against Tennessee State.") In my mind, the numbers guy's explanation and the feelings guys' explanations are two different ways of saying the same thing: It's really, really hard to go undefeated over the course of a college basketball season. And that's why Murray was No. 1 for as long as it was. By the way, after the loss, Murray won by 19.

6. San Diego State (20-4, 55 Pomeroy)
Any doubts we may have had about San Diego State due to their poor rating at kenpom.com should have been alleviated this week, when they came within a bucket of going 2-0 against UNLV this season. Actually, the team ratings back me up on this one. The UNLV game was SDSU's only game last week, and by losing they improved eight spots at kenpom.com from a week ago. Go figure. Playing a team highly rated by his system very closely will do that for you. Seriously, though, there should be no doubting the Aztecs from here on out. They are extremely talented and athletic, can run the floor and shoot the ball well. No doubt in my mind that they are a top 15 team in the country (as in a legitimate Elite Eight threat).

5. Brigham Young (21-6, 31 Pomeroy)
For the first time this season, BYU didn't fall out of the rankings the week after breaking into them. This is BYU's third stint in the Mid-Major Report, and during each of the previous two, they suffered losses to fall out immediately. Not this week. With a 38-point win over a bad Pepperdine squad, the Cougars extended their win-streak to three. Their 20th-rated adjusted-defense will be put to the test on the road next week; BYU plays its next three games on the road, including a huge game for them at Gonzaga. BYU has very little chance of winning the WCC, but a great shot at of improving its seeding come tournament time.

4. Saint Mary's (23-3, 32 Pomeroy)
Despite a loss at Gonzaga last week, there's no need to panic about St. Mary's. That's because it wasn't all that surprising of a loss. Gonzaga is very good; Gonzaga is a tough place to play; St. Mary's had won 12 in a row going into the game. The Gaels are still, like San Diego State, a threat to beat anybody in the country on a given day. They have the 14th-best adjusted-offense in the country, and average better than 16 assists per game. Yeah, the loss hurts just a bit, but with a Bracketbusters game at Murray State upcoming, as well as the WCC Tournament looming, the Gaels have plenty of time to do some damage and secure an excellent seed in the tournament.

3. Wichita State (22-4, 9 Pomeroy)
The Shockers have been ranked almost comically high at kenpom.com all year, but after dominating Creighton Saturday, they have set the new standard. A top-10 spot! I will say this, however, on their behalf: during the Creighton game Wichita State actually looked worthy of being so highly rated (maybe not top 10, but definitely top 20). The Shockers took a lead in the first half and never looked back, turning in a splendid offensive performance. They now have the ninth-rated adjusted-offense, 24th adjusted-defense, and 72nd best strength of schedule. Oh yeah, and they're in the driver's seat to win the MVC title now. Like Temple, they appear to be playing their best basketball of the season at a good time to do it.

2. New Mexico (20-4, 12 Pomeroy)
The Lobos are another team that play exactly to Ken Pomeroy's specifications, coming in this week with an obscenely high ranking of 12. Of course, you now know if you didn't before that New Mexico is the one team out of the top six from last week to avoid a loss. But with wins over Boise State and Wyoming (in which NM scored just 48 points), it wasn't enough to get them the top spot. Really, the reason New Mexico didn't make the cut is I'm being cautious with them once again. They climbed to fifth in the Jan. 17 Mid-Major Report, and promptly went 0-2 the following week against
San Diego State and UNLV. Well, guess who they've got coming up this week? Yup. At San Diego State and home against UNLV. Prove to me that you've changed this time around, New Mexico.

1. UNLV (22-4, 22 Pomeroy)
That's right. From No. 7 to No. 1. UNLV was that impressive (or maybe 1-6 from last week were just the opposite). Either way, anybody who watched the SDSU-UNLV game Saturday had to come away impressed by Vegas. They've got it all (except for maybe a consistent big man), and they have a player in Mike Moser who has it all individually: size, athleticism, length, speed, shooting ability, ball-handling. He was the best player on a court full of pretty excellent players. In the Mountain West Conference, clearly the best non-power-6 conference in the country, there is a three-way tie atop the league. San Diego State has lost two games by a combined 19 points. New Mexico has lost two games by a combined 12 points. And UNLV has lost two games by a combined four points (both on the road). Clearly at the moment, they've got the best resume of the group.

Mid-Major Report: 2/6

We've made it to February, and college basketball is getting wild. Instead of waiting for Bracketbusters games to take place, the mid-majors of the world decided to turn in a crazy slate of results a couple weeks in advance, which will only serve to make the Bracketbusters games more intriguing. Four teams inside the top 10 lost games last week, while several others sitting just outside also suffered losses and cost themselves a shot at making it into the rankings.

As always, refer to the first report of the year for information on how I come up with these rankings.

Dropped Out: Nevada (1-1 last week, lost at home to Idaho), Oral Roberts (1-1, lost at South Dakota State)
Outside looking in: Temple, Long Beach State, Drexel, Cleveland State, VCU

10. Southern Mississippi (20-3, 45th in Ken Pomeroy's team rankings)
Southern Miss makes it's glorious return to the top 10 on the wings of a five game win streak in the Conference-USA. The Golden Eagles dispatched Central Florida away from home and avenged their only C-USA loss by beating Memphis last week. With a strong close to the season (one, maybe two more losses), Southern Miss could be looking at an at-large bid (currently a nine-seed in bracketology, but as the automatic bid for C-USA. No telling where they would be if they didn't have the conference lead at the moment). The decision to include Southern Miss over Temple and Long Beach State was a tough one, but since USM's only loss since November was a two-pointer at Memphis, they got the benefit of the doubt.

9. Brigham Young (20-6, 33 Pomeroy)
The Cougars are back after turning in a strong week with the best win of any team in the top 10. After being beaten up by St. Mary's, the Cougars rebounded and beat Gonzaga by 10 and won by 19 at Portland. Two impressive results were enough to get them back into the top 10. Joe Lunardi felt the Cougars did deserved a nod as well, as he moved them into his NCAA Tournament field in the most recent Bracketology. With the excellent front line of forwards Noah Hartsock (17.6 points per game) and Brandon Davies (14.4 ppg and 8 rebounds per game), if BYU can close out the season strong, they'll be primed to make the tournament and perhaps make some noise with an upset or two.

8.. Wichita State (20-4, 16 Pomeroy)
The Shockers took care of business at Missouri State and at home against Indiana State in two close games, and so maintained their ranking for another week. Make no mistake, Wichita is the real deal. I don't know who Wichita State will be playing in the first round of the tournament, but I'm almost certain I'll be picking them to win the game. They are not 16th best in the country, as kenpom.com's team rankings indicate, but they are a top-30 team. They are ranked in the top 50 in the country in most important statistical categories, and are especially well-liked by the advanced metrics like adjusted offense and defense (13th and 25th, respectively). Don't sleep on the Shockers.

7. UNLV (21-4, 18 Pomeroy)
The Rebels stumbled at Wyoming last week, taking a 68-66 defeat after having two great looks to tie/win the game. This came as a pretty disappointing loss after UNLV was looking good to run through the Mountain West right up to its rematch with San Diego State. But after the loss to Wyoming, I have a bit of concern about the Rebels' ability to win on the road. Despite a nice road win at Illinois earlier in the year, all four of UNLV's losses have come on the road, and they've needed overtime to beat UC Santa-Barbara, Air Force and Boise State away from home. Not exactly some top competition there. Luckily for UNLV, you don't have to win on the road to win in the NCAA Tournament, and they will be there. They might do well to go for some wins in their remaining road games at New Mexico, Texas Christian and Colorado State, though, or it could kill their seeding.

6. Harvard (20-2, 38 Pomeroy)
Coming in at sixth and back in the Top 25 of the coaches poll is Harvard. Now riding an eight game win streak, the Crimson are still undefeated in the Ivy League and have a tiebreak advantage to pad their one-game lead over second-place Yale. Avoiding a hiccup at Pennsylvania will be key for Harvard in the upcoming week. Penn was the team that undid Harvard's season a year ago, and they will be looking to bring some of the same magic to this matchup. Harvard's defense is still among the best in the country (21st in adjusted-defense), and kept it up against Cornell and Columbia last week, holding the opponents to 60 and 52 points.

5. Creighton (21-3, 24 Pomeroy)
The Blue Jays lost a second game in the Missouri Valley Conference and are now tied with Wichita State with a game still to play against the Shockers. Creighton's decline with a loss this week was not as precipitous as some drops in the past in these rankings because it came on a buzzer-beater away from home. A quick look at Creighton's 65-62 loss at Northern Iowa and it looks more like a fluke than an indication of Creighton being exposed. The top team in the country for field-goal percentage at 51.2 percent, Creighton shot just 42.1 percent at Northern Iowa and scored 62 points, compared to its season average of 81 per game (sixth in the country). Similar to the Blue Jays' Dec. 28 loss to Missouri State, this just looks like a game in which they struggled shooting, and it resulted in a close game that they couldn't quite win in the end. It does, however, make the teams Feb. 11 rematch with Wichita State extremely important. The winner will almost certainly win the MVC regular season.

4. New Mexico (19-4, 10 Pomeroy)
Despite being terrifically overrated by kenpom.com's system (10th is the highest any team has been in the report this year, and its a whopping 13 spots higher than NM was last week), New Mexico does appear to have righted the ship and be very good. Whereas UNLV required overtime to beat both Air Force and Boise State on the road, New Mexico dealt with both teams easily last week, winning by 39 and 16 points, respectively. The Lobos have the 29th best adjusted-offense and 12th best adjusted-defense in the country. That's the good news. The bad news? The next four games are against Wyoming, at San Diego State, home against UNLV, and at Colorado State. Not what one would call a friendly stretch, and it produced New Mexico's only two losses in the Mountain West last time.

3. San Diego State (20-3, 63 Pomeroy)
Despite a 2-0 week, SDSU dropped 10 more spots at kenpom.com, most likely due in large part to a two point squeak-by of Boise State at home. Still, the Aztecs are alone atop the Mountain West again and that is no small feat. The numbers continue to not back up the 20-3 record SDSU is sporting, and yet Steve Fischer's squad keeps on winning, which is why numbers are not all we can look at in sports. New Mexico has a tough stretch coming up but so does San Diego State. First the Aztecs will travel to UNLV for a rematch, and UNLV will be hungry afer losing by two in the first meeting. Then its a home game against New Mexico. Whatever SDSU has accomplished so far, it could fall apart pretty quickly if they don't get up for the next two games. Such is life in the MWC.

2. Saint Mary's (22-2, 26 Pomeroy)
If a tournament were organized of the 10 teams on this list plus the six best mid-major teams after them, I would probably be picking St. Mary's to win it all. Now up to a 12 game winning streak after a rest week with just one game against San Diego last week, the Gaels have been extremely impressive this season. In the latest Bracketology, they were given only a five seed, which seemed too low to me. The good news for the Gaels is they will have two golden opportunities to improve on that seeding in the coming weeks. With games at Gonzaga and Murray State, St. Mary's still has a couple very challenging tests ahead. Can Matthew Dellavedova continue being the best guard on the court when he's matching up against Kevin Pangos and Isaiah Canaan? If so, this team is headed for a two or three seed in the tourney.

1. Murray State (23-0, 61 Pomeroy)
Another week, another couple wins for the Racers, and a further decline in the Ken Pomeroy rankings. Why? Because beating teams like Southest Missouri State and Tennessee-Martin doesn't count for much in those rankings unless the win is by 30 or more. Which is valid. The good news for the Racers is I don't think anyone is buying into that number 61 next to their names. And maybe people are buying in the number 9 assigned to them in the coach's poll either, but they should at least realized Murray State isn't far from there. You just don't get to 23-0 without being really good. Sure, the 309th-ranked strength of schedule might make it easier, but teams like Dayton, Southern Miss, Western Kentucky and Memphis wouldn't take too kindly to you calling them cream puffs. If you're not sold on Murray, just wait another week and a half. Watch the game against Saint Mary's. Even if they lose, I'm guessing you'll be impressed.