UD vs. Buffalo: Ouch

Can you see how PW's not happy? Well that's because UD just lost by 29 at home.

In my last post I touched on how sometimes a team can look really good and despite how excited you might be about how well they played, that will not be case for most of the season. Well, if Wednesday's game against Buffalo (AT HOME) was any indication, then we may have seen the best UD is capable of in the Old Spice Classic Finals against Minnesota. Even if that game wasn't UD's best effort, let's hope this one was the absolute worst.

This game was, in every sense of the word, ugly. Similar to Duke at Ohio State the night before, UD was dismantled and embarrassed in every facet of the game, from start to finish. The only differences between UD and Duke were (a)Duke did close the gap once in the first half, UD didn't, and (b)Dayton got stomped AT HOME.

The Good
Yeah...uh...

The Bad
The defense. UD gave up 85 points to Buffalo. The Flyers gave up 46 points in the second half on 60 percent shooting. They were outrebounded by 21. They gave up 15 offensive boards. They were out-hustled to loose balls. They were lazy all game long, and never got out to defend Zach Filzen, who was on fire, but benefited from having open look after open look.

The offense. Dayton scored 11 points in the first 15 minutes of the game. Kevin Dillard was 4-10 from the field, and he was a bright spot. Matt Kavanaugh went 3-8, Josh Parker 2-8, Josh Benson 1-5, Chris Johnson 4-15 and Paul Williams 0-3 (3 shots! All game! From your starting two-guard!).

Chris Johnson. It probably doesn't seem like there could be any more bad from this game if the offense and defense were bad. That makes up just about the entirety of a basketball game. But CJ is getting special treatment tonight, because I don't know what the hell is wrong with him. He led Dayton in scoring with 12 points tonight, that doesn't sound terrible. Until you realize that he was 4-15 from the field in scoring those twelve points. Which must mean...you guessed it! All of CJ's 12 points came from behind the three-point line. He was 4-10, which is actually an okay percentage (for now let's not worry about the fact that 10 threes is waaayyy too many for him to be shooting in one game, especially if he's not on fire). "But wait," you're probably thinking, "if he was 4-10 from three and 4-15 for the game, that must mean..." Right again! CJ managed to go 0-5 from inside the arc, including a couple missed layups. He's not even getting it done on the glass these days (three rebs against Buffalo), which used to be the go-to part of his game if he was struggling offensively. I can't tell if CJ is just in a funk to start the season, he doesn't like Archie Miller's system and is playing poorly because of it, or has decided that being an English teacher is more interesting to him. Whatever the problem is, CJ's game needs some major work right now. And after watching that performance, so does the entire Dayton team.

A Word of Warning to Thad and the Buckeye Faithful

Last night Ohio State absolutely destroyed Duke in basketball. Duke played so poorly that Coach K gave up on his starters and opted to play Quinn Cook, Josh Hairston and Michael Gbinije for essentially the entire second half. But make no mistake about that; Ohio State looked good. Unfortunately, it's not going to last.

In fact, Ohio State probably just played its best game of the season. Remember last year, when Wisconsin (at that point the second best team in the Big 10) visited OSU and got romped by 30, as Jon Diebler and crew banged home three-ball after three-ball after three-ball? Gus Johnson was absolutely beside himself. Well, that type of performance had not happened for the Buckeyes up to that point in the season, and they never repeated it. Despite hitting 312 threes and scoring 93 points against Wisconsin (I know that doesn't seem like it adds up, but you're just going to have to take my word for it), OSU struggled shooting in its final game of the season, losing 62-60 to Kentucky in the Sweet 16.

What's the point here? That the game against Wisconsin was an anomaly, even amid the incredible season Ohio State had last year. So was last night's game against Duke. Last night, William Buford shot the worst percentage of any Ohio State player to see the floor (not surprising). He went 8-15. Everyone else was better than that. Sorry, that's not happening again. DeShaun Thomas will not go 8-12 more than one more time this season. The performance, while impressive, is simply not sustainable.

And I'm not just hating because it was Duke that Ohio State beat and I'm mad about it (I am). I've seen the same type of scenario play out at Duke before. I know it can't last. In the 2005-06 season, Duke had one of its greatest regular seasons since I've been alive. Led by J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams, Duke went into the NCAA Tournament with 30-3 record and had been unbelievable to watch all year. They had the national player of the year in Redick (averaging 26.8 points per game that year) and the best center in the country in Williams (first team All-American, 18.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 3.8 bpg). Around those guys Duke had a bunch of role players who contributed enough on offense and weren't liabilities on defense, so Duke kept winning. If you think about it, that is essentially Ohio State's makeup this year, with them having maybe three big offensive threats (definitely Sullinger and Buford, maybe Craft) and then good rl players. In 05-06, Duke was tearing people apart to start the year, but none of them was like the 97-66 thrashing Duke administered to Texas (ranked No. 2 in the nation at the time) in its ninth game of the season (this was OSU's seventh). I can still remember watching that game and thinking, "Duke is unreal. How are they ever going to lose?" But you know what? They did lose that season. And they never quite looked the same as they did against Texas. Because that was just one of those games where everything was falling. Redick was pulling up in transition from 30 feet away and hitting any shot he took. Williams was unstoppable inside on both ends of the court. It just wasn't the way anyone could possibly play for 35-or-so games in a row.

Here's where the similarities between that Duke team and this Ohio State one get scary. During last night's telecast, Dan Shulman made mention of the fact that with about seven minutes to play, Craft and Buford had not come out of the game, and Sullinger had sat for just a minute. Head coach Thad Matta had only used seven players up to that point. In 05-06, Redick averaged 37 minutes per game and Williams 33 (this number would have been higher if not for Williams' bad habit of getting into foul trouble). Basically, those guys were out there all the time. And by the end of the year? They were worn out. Plain and simple. Redick worked harder than any player I've ever seen to get open. His motor never stopped. by the end of the season though, he didn't have the legs to drain the threes like before. Williams' body had taken a beating for an entire season inside the paint, and it wasn't in the same shape it was months before. That year, Duke had just seven players average more than six minutes a game (sound familiar?). The result was a phenomenal regular season, a 1-1 record against North Carolina, an ACC Tournament Championship, and then a 62-54 loss in the Sweet 16 to Tyrus Thomas, Glen Davis and an energetic LSU team. Duke had completely run out of gas. Those 54 points were the team's lowest offensive output of the season by 10.

There was nothing left in the tank for Duke in 05-06. With the way Aaron Craft never stops hustling, the way Jared Sullinger takes a beating on the interior, and the way William Buford is running around on offense, getting open or creating his own shot, the same will happen to them. The Buckeyes looked as good as a college team can Tuesday night, but if Thad Matta doesn't start giving them some breathers, it will all come to a screeching halt.

UD vs. Minnesota: Where did this come from?

After a disappointing loss at Miami, it has been good, good, and more good for the Dayton Flyers, who took home the Old Spice Classic championship with a relatively easy 86-70 win over Minnesota. This was a game I was expecting Dayton to lose, so what happened that they were in control? For starters, it was one of those games that UD seems to have every year where they play to their full potential and look phenomenal (think like their 28-point win over Charlotte two years ago or the 30-point victory over Pitt from four years back). But there was more to it than that. Let's look a bit deeper.

The Good
Kevin Dillard. Kevin Dillard. Kevin. Dillard. Dillard delivered the best game from a UD guard since Brian Roberts was running the show at UD, and from a pure point-guard perspective, it was probably better than what Roberts could muster (B-Rob always had to be looking to score more, so this isn't to take anything away from him). Dillard tallied 19 points, 10 assists, seven steals (SEVEN!) and three blocks, and was efficient doing it, going 6-12 from the field. What's more, is Dillard was in complete control of the game while he was on the court. It really was pretty amazing to watching him from the second portion of the first half on. He was just so calm and smooth, doing what he wanted, much in the same way Chris Paul or Steve Nash manage a game. From watching, you got the sense he was going to score or find someone for an open shot every possession. It was amazing.

Devin Oliver. Oliver's line from Sunday: 14 minutes, 0-1 from the field, zero points, seven rebounds, one assist, one steal, one turnover, four fouls. So why was he good? Because Oliver appears to understand and accept what his role on the team is currently: come in as a seventh or eighth man and hustle his ass off. Don't be a defensive liability, and grab some rebounds. And if you watched the game Sunday, you would have seen Oliver all over the place. He gave maximum effort at all times (probably why he managed the four fouls in just 14 minutes). He deferred to his teammates on offense, and it resulted in him playing good minutes in the second half. Perhaps there will come a time when UD needs Oliver to step up on offense, but for now, what he's doing is great.

The blue uniforms. I'm hoping I get to see these blue unis more over the rest of the season. I thought it was so cool to see UD playing in the school's color blue. There was nothing special about those unis as far as color scheme or design, but they looked great, and Dayton ran the table in them while in Florida. It is reminiscent of their run through the 2010 NIT wearing the black uniforms. Keep those coming back on the road, Archie.

The Bad
This is somewhat of a nit-picky bad since UD didn't really need him to be great in this game, but Paul Williams only scored eight points against Minnesota, going 2-9 from the field. So far, PW has been UD's best player (with Dillard probably taking that spot over after this tournament), but he has been inconsistent this year. Williams' scoring so far this year: 15, 20, 5, 18, 5, and 8. It should be noted that two of his single-digit performances came in games where UD didn't need him as badly, but still, it is important for the senior to be delivering in double figures just about every game. And if he doesn't score 10 or more, it needs to be because he took less shots, not because PW put up a line like 2-9.

So UD will come back to town an encouraging 5-1 to a very appreciative fan base. Things will not get any easier for Dayton, though. After a home game against Buffalo, UD has its two toughest (and therefore most important) non-conference games: at Murray State and at home against No. 12 Alabama. The nation took notice of UD after this weekend, but a 2-0 stint in those games would really turn some heads. With the fact that the A-10 is looking pretty strong in the early season, UD is going to need to keep on playing strong basketball to keep up. Still, there is plenty of reason to be excited about what Dayton has done so far. The players have bought into Miller's system, are playing hard and winning games. You can't ask for much more.

Smörgåsbord Saturday: Dayton Flyers, NFL and the NBA returns

Given my work schedule this week, there was a lot I wanted to write about today, so this will be the first Smörgåsbord Saturday, a column where I write shorter bits about a bunch of different things. If all goes according to plan, I'll produce a smörgåsbord every Saturday. There will at least be one every couple. Right, let's get to it.

Dayton survives again
First things first. The UD basketball won another game in the Old Spice Classic, advancing to the finals of the early-season tournament with a 56-49 win over Fairfield. Fairfield the winner of the MAAC last season, is a team that many casual fans have never heard of, but make no mistake. This is a good win for UD, even though it won't show up on any late-season resumes of what UD has done so far. I was unable to watch the game, much to my disappointment, but the texts I received about the proceedings indicated that UD did not play especially well. The fact that they scored just 56 points would appear to support that opinion, since it is UD's lowest offensive output so far by 11 points. Chris Johnson played another poor game, scoring just five points and attempting just two two-point shots (again). Paul Williams had his worst game so far. The bright spots for Dayton were Matt Kavanaugh (again!) grabbing double-digit rebounds and (sigh) Josh Parker. Parker (who I'm working on a nickname for) scored 13 in the first half and was the reason Dayton was in the game. This is the type of performance we'll see from Parker three to five times a year, much like Charles Little before him. A few times a year, all the bad shots he puts up will drop, and he will have an excellent game. Hopefully, those games continue to come for Parker when the other players are struggling like they were Friday.
Next up for UD is Minnesota, a game that I think will be extremely difficult for Dayton to win. Minnesota is nothing special this season, but the Gophers boast plenty of size that I believe will bother UD on defense and not be stopped on offense. Kavanaugh and Josh Benson will need to have career days defensively to keep up on the glass and in the low-post.

Turkey Day Football
There were some interesting games happening on Thanksgiving Day in the NFL, and the one that seemed the least interesting going in ended up being the most interesting. So what did we learn? The Lions are not a threat come playoff time, even though they will still probably make the postseason. They were dismantled by the Packers. The Cowboys are almost certain to win the NFC East now, but are also almost certain to lose in the Wildcard round of the playoffs to some inferior team. They just aren't that good. The 49ers are not explosive enough to win unless they win the turnover battle significantly. And the Ravens? They are my new pick to win the Super Bowl. Because despite losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle, the Ravens have shown that those were instances of them just shutting it down because they don't care about weak opponents. When they get up for game (which they will in the playoffs) they're incredible. The defense is absolutely ravenous. I think it's good enough to beat Green Bay.

Congrats to members of the 2011 NBA Draft
Can't help but feel happy for guys like Nolan Smith, Norris Cole and Kyle Singler. They were all drafted into decent-to-good situations, and then had to sit by and do nothing while waiting for the NBA to come up with a new CBA. What were guys like Cole, a Cleveland State grad and late-first round pick, doing during all that time? He wasn't collecting any money from his contracts, we know that much. Well, Norris, you can get excited, finally. The NBA appears to have a deal set, and that means you can start collecting some big-boy checks, as well as begin your campaign for the Miami Heat starting point guard position (which you'll probably have on lockdown before season's end). Have fun throwing oops to Lebron and D-Wade. Bring back the flat top with that awesome fade, and try to get the rest of your team to employ it on their domes as well. That's just the type of thing that could get the public back on the Heat's side. How could we not root for a team that is all rocking the 80's flat top?

Happy Saturday. Ohio State is actually playing Michigan close. A nice surprise for all the Ohio people I know on a nice Saturday.

UD vs. Wake Forest

In its first game of the Old Spice Classic, UD matched up with Wake Forest, a team from the ACC that has been stuck in struggsville ever since Chris Paul left. And in a very winnable game that would also look decent on a resume for the Flyers (at a neutral site), UD picked up an 80-76 win and improved to 3-1 on the year. It was an important win for Dayton to get, and even had Paul shaking his head afterwards. Is it just me or is it kinda cool that CP3 was watching that game, and still actually cares about what's going on with his former school?

Reaction
This was a big one for UD. After a poor performance in their only game away from UD Arena on the season, I was a bit nervous about what the Flyers might do. What they did was not great, giving up 76 points, but in the end you've got to be happy with a nice win. If UD can consistently beat team's of Wake's caliber, they're going to have a pretty good record come the end of the year and will be top 5 in the A-10. UD outrebounded Wake 43-31, meaning Dayton has won the rebounding numbers in every game this year. That's a good stat to see. Controlling the glass is extremely important.

The Good
Matt Kavanaugh. Who saw this coming? Kav, after being on of the softest, slowest big men I can remember seeing (maybe he would beat Kenny George in a foot race?), has now had two great games this year for UD. He led the way for Dayton today, scoring 15 points and 13 rebounds. He went 3-3 from the foul line. He had three assists to go with three turnovers (not bad for a center). I didn't think Kavanaugh was ever going to be a guy that was delivering significant numbers, but he just may be proving me wrong this year (I hope so). Kav's line against Wake is more exciting than his numbers against Western Illinois, because Wake boasts a bigger set of big men, who would therefore (theoretically) offer up more resistance. But he still delivered.

Paul Williams. P-dub has been UD's best player through its first four games and continued his high level of play. After a forgettable first half, PW stepped up big in the second and started knocking down shots. He finished the game 5-15, but was 0-7 in the first half. So when the Flyers needed him, he was there to deliver. Paul also had three assists to just one turnover, and had two steals to add to his line as well. Without Williams, UD is certainly 2-2 on the year, and the loss to Miami would have looked much worse. If a couple other players (read below) can get up a bit closer to PW's level right now, UD will really start clicking on offense.

Josh Parker only playing 13 minutes. This is an extremely encouraging sign from Archie Miller in the early stages of the season. Simply put, Parker had been the worst Dayton player on the court through three games, so Miller cut his time back. He still managed to go 0-5 from the field in those 13 minutes, so don't expect him to get much more PT anytime soon. And UD will be better off for it.

Foul Shooting. UD went 15-17 from the charity stripe in this game. Wait a second, that can't possibly be correct. Let me check that again (consulting box score...). Huh. Supposedly UD went 15-17 from the foul line in this game. And 2012 is just around the corner? Uh oh.

The Bad
Chris Johnson. I am getting dangerously close to giving up on CJ as a threat to score inside the three-point line. CJ went 3-10 from the field and 2-8 from beyond the arc. How can that guy only be attempting two two-point shots in an entire game? He wasn't in foul trouble, so he got his normal minutes. He went 4-4 from the foul line in this game to get him to 12 points. Why is he only attempting four foul shots in a game?!?! He is a borderline 90 percent free throw shooter in his career, CJ needs to be doing everything he can to get to the line. He can get so many free points there! And I hate to break it to you CJ, but you're going to have to start slashing, cause there just aren't as many shooting fouls on the perimeter.

Not much else bad is coming from this game. The defense of course needs significant improvement, but we've all heard enough about that already. Next up is the semis of the Old Spice Classic, against Fairfield of the MAAC, a pretty weak-looking conference so far this year. Fairfield beat Arizona State in the first round, which is the type of result we can't glean anything from. ASU looked horrible.

A duo of playoff trios?

We're past all the bye weeks in the NFL; from here on out, every team will play in each of the next six weeks, and their playoff fates will be decided. The final third of this year's season presents a very unique playoff scenario: a real chance to have three teams representing the same division on both sides of the playoff bracket. A funny coincidence that adds to the potential rarity of this situation is that both divisions happen to be the North division in their respective conferences. As the standings sit today, post week-11 results, the Packers, Bears and Lions would all make the playoffs from the NFC North, and the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals would all make the playoffs from the AFC North.

Now, how rare is this, really? Turns out, it's happened once before, in 2007. That year the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins all made the playoffs from the NFC East while the Colts, Jaguars and Titans all made the playoffs from the AFC South. Despite the fact this has happened so recently, it is the only instance I was able to uncover of this happening. Will it happen a second time this year? Unfortunately, probably not.

At 6-4, the Bengals are the least likely of the AFC North teams to make the playoffs, especially having lost their first matchup against both the Steelers and Ravens despite being competitive in both games. Standing in their way for the wildcard spot other than the one the Ravens are assumed to get are the Jets (5-5), Titans (5-5), and Broncos (5-5). The other AFC West teams have an outside shot at a playoffs spot as well. Unfortunately for Cincy, their schedule closing out is pretty tough. They still have games in Pittsburgh, and at home against Houston and Baltimore. If they don't win their other three games and at least one of those, their playoff chances are kaput at 9-7. According to ESPN's playoff machine, the only filter in which the Bengals will make the playoffs is if home teams win the rest of the season (not very reliable). The Jets look like the best bet to make the playoffs, with a weaker schedule than the other teams involved, and a team that really should be the best of the group (but often hasn't been, as evidenced by that Thursday night loss to Denver). Their only remaining game against a team with a winning record will be at home against the Giants. The Jets do have to get through two trap games at Philly and at Miami to close the season, but bet on seeing them still playing come January.

As for the NFC playoffs picture, it is a bit more murky. You can write the Packers and 49ers into the 1 and 2 seeds right now, assuming a key player does not get injured in the next few weeks. The Saints look like a good bet to win the South, and either the Cowboys or Giants ought to claim the East division. That leaves the Cowboys/Giants loser (currently both 6-4), Bears, Lions and Falcons, with a way-way-way outside shot for the Eagles, Buccaneers and Seahawks. The Lions and Bears are the best two teams in that group, and that is why they have the best records of that group at 7-3 each. Unfortunately, both teams are dealing with injuries right now. The Lions haven't had Jahvid Best for three weeks, and the Bears just lost Jay Cutler for the rest of the regular season (or maybe not, the doctors say he might be back sooner. I have no idea what the hell is going on with all of that nonsense. I don't even get why a broken thumb requires surgery. Can't you just set it and take it easy for several weeks? Someone who knows more than me about this, enlighten me please). That leaves a huge question mark, especially for the Bears, who still have to travel to Oakland, Denver, and Green Bay before the year is over. Can they win those with Caleb Hanie? He played decent in the playoffs game last year, but it was mostly the Bears defense that dominated. They are going to have to really step up for a six-game stretch now.

The Best injury doesn't concern me for the Lions quite as much as their schedule does. Detroit still has two games to play against Green Bay as well as games at New Orleans, at Oakland and home against San Diego. I don't think 9-7 will cut it this year for a wildcard in the NFC, so the Lions will have to finish 3-3. With those teams comprising five of their six remaining games, it will not be easy.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have a tough remaining schedule as well traveling to New Orleans and Houston, as well as a game at Carolina that should be tough, given that the Panthers play just about everybody tight. The big advantage Atlanta has is they beat Detroit in week seven. If the Falcons can manage to finish the season at 10-6, they would likely beat out the Lions for a playoff spot (or obviously the Bears could just disintegrate making that tiebreaker meaningless. The point is an NFC North team would be gone.)

As for the Giants and Cowboys, they still have to play each other twice. The Giants' other games are much tougher, with matches against Green Bay and at the Jets still to play. The Cowboys' toughest remaining game aside from the Giants ones figures to be a home game against Philadelphia. Dallas is certainly the favorite to win the division right now, but I don't see the second place team in the division being a factor for the playoffs. It is extremely unlikely both of these teams make it to 10-6, and if they do, the Lions have a tiebreaker on the Cowboys due to their head-to-head win in week 4.

In the NFC, three from the North in the playoffs is still very much in play. It appears to rest on the shoulders of Caleb Hanie and whether he can keep the Bears afloat. He and Matthew Stafford both have a game's advantage on the field. They need to treat the rest of this season like both men should be treating every snap in a game: protect the ball, protect the lead, don't turn it over, play a steady, solid game. Their teammates are good enough to get them the rest of the way there.

A UD In-betweener

A rough weekend work schedule kept me from being able to see Dayton play in their game against UNC-Wilmington. It also kept me from getting much writing in, so I'm not going to focus as much on that game, but more what it could mean going forward for the Flyers.

Reaction
When I got home from work on Saturday after the UD game and spoke to my mom about it (she had attended the game) all she could do was shake her head. Evidently UNCW was about as bad as can be. A look at the box score doesn't make them look much better than she indicated. They scored just 49 points, shot 35 percent from the field, attempted just nine free throws all game, and had 19 turnovers to 11 assists. All this coming against a UD defense that could be generously called a work in progress. So lets get that out of the way first: UD's two wins have been against teams that they absolutely had to beat. And they did. Badly. The encouraging aspect of this game was that Chris Johnson finally showed up, scoring 19 points. Of course, 15 of those 19 points came from beyond the arc, which is not where CJ should be spending most of his time. What was discouraging about this game is that it seems if UD had been able to play as well against Miami as they did against both UNCW and Western Illinois, they would be 3-0 right now. A team has got to be able to bring it's "A" game every time. Especially these Flyers, who are not going to be able to survive in the Atlantic 10 if they turn in lackluster performances on the road.

Looking Ahead
As Dayton moves forward, we ought to get a look at what we'll see the rest of the year. They have a neutral-site game against Wake Forest (very winnable, Wake Forest should be bad again), home against Buffalo (better be a W) and an away game at Murray State (a perennially tough mid-major school that should be a tough test) and then their premiere non-conference game of the year, at home against no. 15 Alabama.

Dayton could easily go 1-3 in that stretch; two games away from UD Arena, and one against a strong opponent they are not expected to beat. The games against Wake Forest and Murray State will be a key primer for the rest of UD's season. Will the Flyers be able to take care of business outside of Dayton? The past couple years the answer has been no, and it has meant mediocre results and disappointment for Dayton. If UD can manage to come away from this four-game stretch with a record of 5-2, then perhaps UD fans will have something to be excited about. If they play poorly like they did against Miami, then things will be set early for Dayton this year: no NCAA, no NIT, no CBI, maybe no A-10 Tournament.

Buckle up, it's going to be a big couple weeks.