We're past all the bye weeks in the NFL; from here on out, every team will play in each of the next six weeks, and their playoff fates will be decided. The final third of this year's season presents a very unique playoff scenario: a real chance to have three teams representing the same division on both sides of the playoff bracket. A funny coincidence that adds to the potential rarity of this situation is that both divisions happen to be the North division in their respective conferences. As the standings sit today, post week-11 results, the Packers, Bears and Lions would all make the playoffs from the NFC North, and the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals would all make the playoffs from the AFC North.
Now, how rare is this, really? Turns out, it's happened once before, in 2007. That year the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins all made the playoffs from the NFC East while the Colts, Jaguars and Titans all made the playoffs from the AFC South. Despite the fact this has happened so recently, it is the only instance I was able to uncover of this happening. Will it happen a second time this year? Unfortunately, probably not.
At 6-4, the Bengals are the least likely of the AFC North teams to make the playoffs, especially having lost their first matchup against both the Steelers and Ravens despite being competitive in both games. Standing in their way for the wildcard spot other than the one the Ravens are assumed to get are the Jets (5-5), Titans (5-5), and Broncos (5-5). The other AFC West teams have an outside shot at a playoffs spot as well. Unfortunately for Cincy, their schedule closing out is pretty tough. They still have games in Pittsburgh, and at home against Houston and Baltimore. If they don't win their other three games and at least one of those, their playoff chances are kaput at 9-7. According to ESPN's playoff machine, the only filter in which the Bengals will make the playoffs is if home teams win the rest of the season (not very reliable). The Jets look like the best bet to make the playoffs, with a weaker schedule than the other teams involved, and a team that really should be the best of the group (but often hasn't been, as evidenced by that Thursday night loss to Denver). Their only remaining game against a team with a winning record will be at home against the Giants. The Jets do have to get through two trap games at Philly and at Miami to close the season, but bet on seeing them still playing come January.
As for the NFC playoffs picture, it is a bit more murky. You can write the Packers and 49ers into the 1 and 2 seeds right now, assuming a key player does not get injured in the next few weeks. The Saints look like a good bet to win the South, and either the Cowboys or Giants ought to claim the East division. That leaves the Cowboys/Giants loser (currently both 6-4), Bears, Lions and Falcons, with a way-way-way outside shot for the Eagles, Buccaneers and Seahawks. The Lions and Bears are the best two teams in that group, and that is why they have the best records of that group at 7-3 each. Unfortunately, both teams are dealing with injuries right now. The Lions haven't had Jahvid Best for three weeks, and the Bears just lost Jay Cutler for the rest of the regular season (or maybe not, the doctors say he might be back sooner. I have no idea what the hell is going on with all of that nonsense. I don't even get why a broken thumb requires surgery. Can't you just set it and take it easy for several weeks? Someone who knows more than me about this, enlighten me please). That leaves a huge question mark, especially for the Bears, who still have to travel to Oakland, Denver, and Green Bay before the year is over. Can they win those with Caleb Hanie? He played decent in the playoffs game last year, but it was mostly the Bears defense that dominated. They are going to have to really step up for a six-game stretch now.
The Best injury doesn't concern me for the Lions quite as much as their schedule does. Detroit still has two games to play against Green Bay as well as games at New Orleans, at Oakland and home against San Diego. I don't think 9-7 will cut it this year for a wildcard in the NFC, so the Lions will have to finish 3-3. With those teams comprising five of their six remaining games, it will not be easy.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have a tough remaining schedule as well traveling to New Orleans and Houston, as well as a game at Carolina that should be tough, given that the Panthers play just about everybody tight. The big advantage Atlanta has is they beat Detroit in week seven. If the Falcons can manage to finish the season at 10-6, they would likely beat out the Lions for a playoff spot (or obviously the Bears could just disintegrate making that tiebreaker meaningless. The point is an NFC North team would be gone.)
As for the Giants and Cowboys, they still have to play each other twice. The Giants' other games are much tougher, with matches against Green Bay and at the Jets still to play. The Cowboys' toughest remaining game aside from the Giants ones figures to be a home game against Philadelphia. Dallas is certainly the favorite to win the division right now, but I don't see the second place team in the division being a factor for the playoffs. It is extremely unlikely both of these teams make it to 10-6, and if they do, the Lions have a tiebreaker on the Cowboys due to their head-to-head win in week 4.
In the NFC, three from the North in the playoffs is still very much in play. It appears to rest on the shoulders of Caleb Hanie and whether he can keep the Bears afloat. He and Matthew Stafford both have a game's advantage on the field. They need to treat the rest of this season like both men should be treating every snap in a game: protect the ball, protect the lead, don't turn it over, play a steady, solid game. Their teammates are good enough to get them the rest of the way there.
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