NFL 2011-12. AFC

Continuing my NFL predictions, today with AFC thoughts. If you're interested in hearing about the NFC, just scroll down to the previous post.

AFC North
In the AFC North this year, things look similar to the way they have looked for what seems like forever: Steelers and Ravens battling for the title, with the Browns and Bengals looking up. Now, of course that's not the way it's always been. Actually, the Bengals won the division in 2009, which I believe less and less the more time I spend thinking about it.
The Bengals don't look like they have any shot of eeking out a division title this year, though. They look like they will have an excellent shot at winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, which would be a shame since they just drafted Andy Dalton at QB. The Browns seem like they might be a bit improved from last year, when they played a tough schedule. Colt McCoy looked sharp in the preseason, and Peyton Hillis is poised to have another big year.
Still, the division goes through Pittsburgh. The Steelers just refuse to be bad. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) projections for 2011, the Steelers are actually the most likely team to win the whole shebang this year. Baltimore will still be good, but not good enough.

AFC East
Despite the Jets' phenomenal performance in last year's playoff matchup, they don't have it in them to challenge the Patriots for a division title this year. Their defense will still be excellent, and Mark Sanchez might improve some more and come closer to being a franchise quarterback, but New England will be infuriatingly good once again. The Patriots lost essentially nothing and added Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Those are just the type of players that the Patriots take in and turn their careers around (see: Randy Moss).
Buffalo will be challenging Cincinnati for worst in the AFC, and the best I can see for Miami this year is a surprise 8-8 record. Better luck next year, boys.

AFC West
The Kansas City Chiefs almost inexplicably won this division last year. I don't think it's going to happen again. This year, for once, the Chargers will give football fans what they've been waiting for. A decent to good start so that they don't have to win their last seven games to try and come back and win the division. No, this year the Chargers will give us a full season of mostly good play, and go a solid 11-5 to win it all.
The other teams in the division, the Broncos and Raiders, aren't going to have much to say either. The Raiders are close, but not going to get the job done with Jason Campbell or Terrelle Pryor. Until they get somebody better under center, the Raiders will be stuck in .500 territory. The Broncos have a similar issue in that they are relying on some scrubs at QB as well. They don't have anyone as good as Run DMC on their team though.

AFC South
This is looking like the most wide-open division in all of football as we enter the season. With Peyton Manning not playing week 1, and his status uncertain for the near future, the Colts could fall a bit behind after the first few games. What if Peyton misses five games? They could easily be 1-4 with Kerry Collins at the helm. It would be tough to come back from that.
Of course, the other teams in the division don't look so hot, either. The Jaguars just released David Garrard and are deferring starting duties to Luke McCown for now, which is one of the most bizarre moves I've ever seen a team make five days before the season starts. The Titans might have a little bit of success with Matt Hasselbeck under center instead of Vince Young or Collins. But still, the team aside from Chris Johnson and maybe Kenny Britt seems pretty lackluster. I don't see the Titans factoring into much of anything.
That brings us to the Houston Texans, the team that for the past three years has been dying to get over the hump, but because of poor defense, and occasionally injuries, has seen quick starts dissolve into 8-8 finishes. This could be the Texans' year though. They have a chance to get some distance between themselves and the Colts at the beginning of the year, and with Arian Foster in his leading role another year, the Texans have more ability to close games out on the ground. Texans take advantage of a weak group and secure their first division title.

There you have it. If you wanted me to make a Super Bowl right now, I'd guess Chargers over Saints for all the marbles.

Rejoice in the fact that the NFL's back, and enjoy the season.