So far, there are just three teams that I can confidently say fit the bill as far as being as good as their records indicate and being good enough that we should expect to see them in the playoffs, probably at least in the divisional round: the Packers, Ravens and Patriots. Those three teams have proved through six games that they are the real deal, winning close games, blowing teams out, and generally playing well. The NFL currently has 10 more teams with records of 4-2 or better, indicating that they are probably pretty good. I'm not sold on any of them though, so I've decided to investigate why. In reverse order how much of a player they really are, here are the "good" teams I haven't bought into yet.
Cincinnati Bengals ESPN.com PowerRank: 18
The Bungals are without a doubt the most surprising of these teams for me. What's even more shocking is that their two losses are by a combined seven points, meaning Cincy could have pretty easily been 5-1 or even 6-0 at this point in the season. A quick look at the Bengals' schedule, however, and it is easy to lose your interest in them as a great team. Three of their wins have come against Cleveland, Jacksonville and Indianapolis. The fourth was a home win over the Bills, a good team, but a team that has not proven itself on the road yet. The Bengals schedule will get harder, with four games against the Steelers and Ravens coming up, but otherwise it is pretty weak, with games against Seattle, St. Louis, Cleveland and Arizona--all winnable games. Still, a young team like this one is going to be due for a road loss or two against some no-so-great opponents. The silver lining for Cincy is that even a poor finish of 4-6 still results in an 8-8 record, which has to be considered a success for this team, especially with getting two first round picks after finally (potentially at the time of this writing) moving Carson Palmer. The future may be brighter than expected for Bengals fans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ESPN.com PowerRank: 12
The Buccaneers are an extremely perplexing team through six weeks. Coming off a 10-6 mark last year, they looked like a team that could make some noise despite being in a tough division. They began giving up a lead to the Lions (who have turned out to be pretty good), then won three straight games against by smaller margins than would have been expected against weak teams (Vikings, Falcons, Colts). In week 5 they suffered the most lopsided loss in the NFL season so far, losing by 45 to San Francisco. So it makes perfect sense, then, that looking completely overrated going into a game with the red-hot Saints, that the Bucs would shut down New Orleans' offensive attack en route to a 26-20 win. The Bucs have been impossible to predict. They are still a young team, so perhaps their inconsistency is a product of youth. Josh Freeman has only played in two games this year (Indy and New Orleans), so if he can get it going, they figure to be a tough out. The one thing the Bucs have going for them is their division appears to be a good bet for getting two teams in the playoffs with the NFC East and West both looking bad. Still, it's really hard to put much faith in a team that loses 48-3 no matter what the circumstances.
Oakland Raiders ESPN.com PowerRank: 9
The Raiders dropped on this list several spots with the injury to Jason Campbell. Campbell is by no stretch of the imagination a great quarterback or even a very good one, but he is a huge improvement over Kyle Boller and Terrelle Pryor. Campbell is good enough to keep teams from throwing eight guys into the box so Darren McFadden has a chance to succeed. With Boller, Run can just kiss his dreams of a rushing title goodbye. That is why the Raiders are going all-in for Carson Palmer--they believe he can keep teams honest enough for them to keep running the ball. Beyond that, the Raiders still have the glaring issue of committing tons of penalties. Until they are able to cut down on the mistakes, I'm not hopping on the Raiders bandwagon.
Buffalo Bills ESPN.com PowerRank: 10
The Bills are 3-0 at home and 1-2 on the road. Their one road win came in week 1 when they beat the Chiefs 41-7. For the first three weeks of the season, though, the Chiefs were completely out of sorts. The Bills caught them at the right time. What's more, is each of the Bills' other five games have been decided by seven points or less. Four of them were three point margins. And at 3-0 they went on the road and played really poorly in Cincinnati. That kind of thing would never happen to a team that was really a contender. As much as I love Fitzy and Fred Jackson, the Bills will have to show more on the road to contend. In weeks 11 and 12 they travel to Miami and New York to face AFC East teams. By week 13, we'll know if the Bills are definitely for real or not.
New York Giants ESPN.com PowerRank: 11
When the Giants pop into my head, I'm inclined to think that they are one of the NFC's better teams. But a quick look at what they've done so far says that intuition is wrong. Their two losses are at Washington and vs. Seattle. Their best win is their most recent one, a 27-24 win over Buffalo at home (again, the Bills have not been good on the road). Also, Eli Manning, one of the most inconsistent players in the NFL (just ask his fantasy owners), is their quarterback. As things stand in the NFC East at the moment, the Giants look good to make the playoffs due to the poor start of the Eagles and Cowboys, in addition to the fact that the Redskins' implosion is imminent if it didn't happen last week during Sexy Rexy's 4 INT performance. The Giants still have a great defensive line, as they have for the past decade, and that is still a difference-maker in the NFL. Nonetheless, are these Giants for real? No way, not yet. A likely also-ran come playoff time.
San Francisco 49ers ESPN.com PowerRank: 4
I don't have a great statistical reason for not buying into the 49ers, and especially not for having them so low on this list. Just from watching them, I refuse to believe they will keep up this winning pace. They will almost certainly make the playoffs; they still have five games against NFC West teams left, as well as games against Cleveland and Washington. An 11 or maybe even 12 win season is well within reach for the 49ers. But Alex Smith is still their quarterback. Yeah, he's had a bunch of different head coaches and maybe he's never been given optimal chance to succeed. So sure, he's probably going to be consistently better this year, but he's still not very good. That's why the niners are 30th in passing yards per game right now. Smith has only thrown two interceptions this year, an excellent job. But I don't believe he will only throw 5-6 interceptions on the season. Think about that. That would be insane! So what happens if the 49ers fall behind? I don't see much ability to come back in games because of the poor passing offense. You can't make me believe in Alex Smith after he's had six mediocre games. Sorry, not gonna happen.
Detroit Lions ESPN.com PowerRank: 6
Yes, I know the 49ers beat the Lions in Detroit last weekend, so this is completely unfair of me. But this is not a power rank, it's a ranking of who I believe we are most likely to be looking at as contenders when the final month of the season comes around. From what I've seen, that's the Lions. The Lions' biggest problem is that they share a division with the Packers. I wrote recently about how much I liked the way the Lions were playing, but that doesn't mean they don't have some problems. Their inability to get any power-running game going has been talked to death recently. Matt Stafford is good for 3 to 4 egregious overthrows on would-be touchdown plays per game. That being said, the Lions were playing with fire in most of their games this season and were due for a loss. They are still an explosive offense, and still have a pretty good defense. Sounds like a team that is just on the cusp of being a contender to me.
Pittsburgh Steelers ESPN.com PowerRank 8
If I was writing this based on the chances I believed a team had of making the playoffs, the 49ers and Steelers would be 1-2 without a doubt. That's because the Steelers have sneaked their way to 4-2 despite playing the worst football that's been seen in Pittsburgh in five years. They have been shut down by the Ravens and Texans, and only beat Indy and Jacksonville by a combined seven points. They aren't that good. However, they are the Steelers, which means they will eventually put it all together and start playing well again. O, and they still have four games against the Bengals and Browns to look forward to. Still, they've only played one good team so far, and got absolutely smashed by the Ravens. The Steelers might have lost just enough to not be one of the league's elite this year.
San Diego Chargers ESPN.com PowerRank: 7
For once the Chargers have started the season quickly, with a 4-1 record so far. The only problem is they have played like garbage. The only game they've looked good is ironically in their one loss, a 35-21 setback at New England. Otherwise, they've beaten Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami and Denver by 7, 3, 10 and 5 points. Not that impressive. As is always the case, though, the Chargers are one of the most talented teams in the NFL, and this year appear to have a more reliable running game with Ryan Mathews getting it together. With the way this team has played football the past several years (not caring 75 percent of the time), it's hard to include them in any contenders list. I picked them to make the Super Bowl in my NFL preview and I'm already pissed at myself for that one. They're 4-1, but the Chargers still just don't look like they have any drive to win. Watch the Bengals play on Sundays. They aren't talented, but they give a crap. They play hard. Then watch the Chargers. You won't that mentality at all. Until I see that, the Chargers will never be contenders.
New Orleans Saints ESPN.com PowerRank: 5
Through 5 weeks the Saints were a no-brainer contender. They were 4-1 with the loss coming in a shootout at Lambeau Field against a decent (ha) Packers team. Then the Saints suffered a head-scratching loss at Tampa Bay (who was coming off a 45-point drubbing and looked like crap) in week 6. Drew Brees has now thrown eight picks in the Saints' last four games. Call me crazy, but I don't think Drew is going to throw 20 more picks this season. His turnover numbers go down, and the Saints probably don't lose those head-scratchers anymore. You know what? Screw it. I just wrote myself into putting the Saints back into my contenders category. I panicked after seeing the TB loss, and just talked myself back off the ledge. New Orleans is for real.
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