When we lost our way

When we thought replacements could do an impossible job.

Imagine sending a guy with four years of deep-sea fishing experience to go do the job done by those cats on "Deadliest Catch". "He's fished on the ocean before, so he'll be able to catch us a use-able amount of crabs while our normal guys are asking for better insurance benefits," goes the thinking. Right, but the new guy's never seen anything quite like this. He'll do fine for a couple weeks, with some miscues. But then he'll get caught in a serious storm, the likes of which he hasn't dealt with before. He honestly won't know what to do. It's not his fault; the crash-course in training he received can only get him so far. So in all likelihood something terrible will happen--equipment will be lost or broken, a significant portion of the past week's catch will be lost, the ship will capsize--something to the suits realize, "What were we thinking? Nobody can just step up and do this job."

It's not as serious with sports (because it's sports, not real-life), but in the case of the NFL replacement officials, it's just as egregious an error on the part of NFL brass. They have been officiating Division III college football for years, so it's fair to say they understand the rules of football. But it also should have been obvious to the NFL that they were (and are) woefully unprepared for what they would be (and are) seeing on the field.

About 2.5 percent of college football players make it into the NFL. That's the strongest, fastest, most athletic 2.5 percent of all college football players. Most of those guys come from the FBS, a stronger, faster, more athletic division of college football than Division III. Of all those college football players that make it to an NFL team, not all of them play. No, just the strongest, fastest, most athletic group of 30-35 players play for each team (before accounting for injuries).

See where this is going? These referees have vaulted into an entirely different world of football. Steve Young said it best after last night's game, that the NFL is so much faster in person than anything these guys have ever seen, they never stood a chance. Being an NFL official is already an extremely difficult job--it's why fans are constantly pissed off at the officials in years past. So why would anyone think a replacement is a good solution?

Don't blame the replacement referees for these early-season debacles. It is technically their fault, but they were put in an impossible situation. Blaming them would be tantamount to blaming me for ruining your softball team's chances at the intramurals or parks and rec championship. Yeah, I'm bad, so the team has no chance of winning, but I shouldn't be in this position if excellence was the initial goal.

Think these things through a little bit.

NFL Divisional Playoffs. Wheeling, dealing and concealing

After last week's 2-0 in the NFL playoffs, including just about nailing the Saints-Lions score, I'm feeling good. So I'm probably due for a 1-3 spot this weekend, but here come some picks anyway...

Saints at 49ers
Bill Barnwell of Grantland.com made a pretty strong case as to why this game is going to be closer than many people think, and he even picked San Francisco to come out on top in the game. But as convincing as the numbers Barnwell displayed are, I'm not buying into them. The 49ers are going to be relying on Alex Smith to win them this game. Alex Smith, with no postseason experience, who until this year had been bad (and then was merely serviceable in 2011). Nah, I'll go with Drew Brees, despite him and the Saints offense being significantly worse on the road than at home. I know, I know, the Saints blew it last year against the Seahawks in a similar situation: favored team on the road. But this Saints group is rolling way better than last year's.
Saints 30-49ers 17

Broncos at Patriots
Last week even though I didn't write about it, I picked the Steelers to beat the Broncos, because I figured their defense was good enough to hold the Broncos under 10 points, and even their depleted offense would be good enough to score in double digits. Obviously, most of that was incorrect. The Broncos turned out to have an excellent offensive game plan, the Steelers defense was porous, and they couldn't overcome their injuries. This week, though, it is the Broncos who are missing more players, against a team that has already beaten them 41-23. Neither Brian Dawkins nor Eric Decker will be playing Saturday night for the Broncos, which means Denver will be without one of its key players on both sides of the ball. Add that to the fact that this is being played in Foxborough, where the Patriots seldom lose, in what will be cold weather, and it's just too tough to make the call that the Broncos will do it again.
Patriots 35-Broncos 17

Texans at Ravens
A month and a half ago I wrote the Ravens were my end-of-season Super Bowl pick, because when they play in important games and play hard, they are dominant. And while we still haven't seen the Ravens go up against one of the NFL's great offenses from this year, there's no reason to back off them this week. Everyone in Baltimore is healthy, and they'll be playing against a team in Houston that is anything but healthy. Andre Johnson still isn't 100 percent, Mario Williams is gone and, oh yeah, TJ Yates is their starting quarterback. This one seems too good to be true.
Ravens 31-Texans 14

Giants at Packers
And now for the game I want to write nothing about, because I feel like no matter how I write it, I will be jinxing/correctly dooming the Packers into a loss. When I think about this game, I'm terrified. Not because this game is shaping up to be a repeat of 2007 for the Giants (play the best team late the in regular season, barely lose, tear it up after that point, meet the Packers in the playoffs, beat them in 2007). Really, I'm terrified because one's favorite team can always go out in the blink of an eye in the NFL playoffs. There is no series to come back in. And any team can put together a solid performance. But really, the Packers should win this game. Greg Jennings is back, the other receivers were excellent in his absence, and I think James Starks and Ryan Grant are primed to deliver 40-ish rushing yards apiece, which is plenty to ensure that the Packers' offense is having a good day.
Packers 34-Giants 21

Tebow Up

I hated Tim Tebow when he was playing college football. It seemed like he was the only person I heard about on ESPN (when it wasn't time for Brett Favre to come out of retirement again, anyway). I heard about his great leadership, his great faith, I had to listen to the speech he gave to the media after Florida's one loss his senior year, and listen to the halftime scream-fest he laid on his teammates during the national championship game. I was sick of the guy, about as much as I've ever been sick of a sports entity. I was happy when college football ended after Tebow's senior year, because I figured I wouldn't have to hear too much about the guy again. He wasn't a big draft prospect and was not expected to have an impact on the NFL.

Well, it's happening again. All we're hearing about is how great Tebow's leadership is, how his presence has his teammates working and playing harder, how what Tebow and the Broncos are doing right now (five straight wins) is defying everything we thought we knew about being successful in the NFL. You know what, though? This time I'm enjoying it. For whatever reason, Tebow's impact on the game of football this time around is not rubbing me the wrong way. Maybe it's because every Broncos game since he took over has been fun to watch in some way, mainly because they've all been down-to-the-wire type football. If nothing else, Broncos games are exciting. Even when they're low scoring, defensive struggles, with poor offense they manage at least a couple minutes of excitement that Alabama-LSU never could (I shouldn't have brought them up. It's just going to get me upset). Maybe it's because it is immensely enjoyable to watch Merrill Hoge, Trent Dilfer, Trey Wingo and Tim Hasselbeck just sit in the studio and blather on about nothing football related when they try to explain Tebow's winning ways. The fact that he has those clowns tongue-tied is providing some classic entertainment.

Whatever the reason is, I'm on the Tebow Train as it's making its second journey across America. And I gotta say, in an AFC that has exactly zero teams I like, I'll be rooting for the Train to have an extended trip into 2012. Maybe even with a final stop in Indianapolis (no farther though, that place is still reserved for the Pack).

Smörgåsbord Saturday: Dayton Flyers, NFL and the NBA returns

Given my work schedule this week, there was a lot I wanted to write about today, so this will be the first Smörgåsbord Saturday, a column where I write shorter bits about a bunch of different things. If all goes according to plan, I'll produce a smörgåsbord every Saturday. There will at least be one every couple. Right, let's get to it.

Dayton survives again
First things first. The UD basketball won another game in the Old Spice Classic, advancing to the finals of the early-season tournament with a 56-49 win over Fairfield. Fairfield the winner of the MAAC last season, is a team that many casual fans have never heard of, but make no mistake. This is a good win for UD, even though it won't show up on any late-season resumes of what UD has done so far. I was unable to watch the game, much to my disappointment, but the texts I received about the proceedings indicated that UD did not play especially well. The fact that they scored just 56 points would appear to support that opinion, since it is UD's lowest offensive output so far by 11 points. Chris Johnson played another poor game, scoring just five points and attempting just two two-point shots (again). Paul Williams had his worst game so far. The bright spots for Dayton were Matt Kavanaugh (again!) grabbing double-digit rebounds and (sigh) Josh Parker. Parker (who I'm working on a nickname for) scored 13 in the first half and was the reason Dayton was in the game. This is the type of performance we'll see from Parker three to five times a year, much like Charles Little before him. A few times a year, all the bad shots he puts up will drop, and he will have an excellent game. Hopefully, those games continue to come for Parker when the other players are struggling like they were Friday.
Next up for UD is Minnesota, a game that I think will be extremely difficult for Dayton to win. Minnesota is nothing special this season, but the Gophers boast plenty of size that I believe will bother UD on defense and not be stopped on offense. Kavanaugh and Josh Benson will need to have career days defensively to keep up on the glass and in the low-post.

Turkey Day Football
There were some interesting games happening on Thanksgiving Day in the NFL, and the one that seemed the least interesting going in ended up being the most interesting. So what did we learn? The Lions are not a threat come playoff time, even though they will still probably make the postseason. They were dismantled by the Packers. The Cowboys are almost certain to win the NFC East now, but are also almost certain to lose in the Wildcard round of the playoffs to some inferior team. They just aren't that good. The 49ers are not explosive enough to win unless they win the turnover battle significantly. And the Ravens? They are my new pick to win the Super Bowl. Because despite losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle, the Ravens have shown that those were instances of them just shutting it down because they don't care about weak opponents. When they get up for game (which they will in the playoffs) they're incredible. The defense is absolutely ravenous. I think it's good enough to beat Green Bay.

Congrats to members of the 2011 NBA Draft
Can't help but feel happy for guys like Nolan Smith, Norris Cole and Kyle Singler. They were all drafted into decent-to-good situations, and then had to sit by and do nothing while waiting for the NBA to come up with a new CBA. What were guys like Cole, a Cleveland State grad and late-first round pick, doing during all that time? He wasn't collecting any money from his contracts, we know that much. Well, Norris, you can get excited, finally. The NBA appears to have a deal set, and that means you can start collecting some big-boy checks, as well as begin your campaign for the Miami Heat starting point guard position (which you'll probably have on lockdown before season's end). Have fun throwing oops to Lebron and D-Wade. Bring back the flat top with that awesome fade, and try to get the rest of your team to employ it on their domes as well. That's just the type of thing that could get the public back on the Heat's side. How could we not root for a team that is all rocking the 80's flat top?

Happy Saturday. Ohio State is actually playing Michigan close. A nice surprise for all the Ohio people I know on a nice Saturday.

A duo of playoff trios?

We're past all the bye weeks in the NFL; from here on out, every team will play in each of the next six weeks, and their playoff fates will be decided. The final third of this year's season presents a very unique playoff scenario: a real chance to have three teams representing the same division on both sides of the playoff bracket. A funny coincidence that adds to the potential rarity of this situation is that both divisions happen to be the North division in their respective conferences. As the standings sit today, post week-11 results, the Packers, Bears and Lions would all make the playoffs from the NFC North, and the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals would all make the playoffs from the AFC North.

Now, how rare is this, really? Turns out, it's happened once before, in 2007. That year the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins all made the playoffs from the NFC East while the Colts, Jaguars and Titans all made the playoffs from the AFC South. Despite the fact this has happened so recently, it is the only instance I was able to uncover of this happening. Will it happen a second time this year? Unfortunately, probably not.

At 6-4, the Bengals are the least likely of the AFC North teams to make the playoffs, especially having lost their first matchup against both the Steelers and Ravens despite being competitive in both games. Standing in their way for the wildcard spot other than the one the Ravens are assumed to get are the Jets (5-5), Titans (5-5), and Broncos (5-5). The other AFC West teams have an outside shot at a playoffs spot as well. Unfortunately for Cincy, their schedule closing out is pretty tough. They still have games in Pittsburgh, and at home against Houston and Baltimore. If they don't win their other three games and at least one of those, their playoff chances are kaput at 9-7. According to ESPN's playoff machine, the only filter in which the Bengals will make the playoffs is if home teams win the rest of the season (not very reliable). The Jets look like the best bet to make the playoffs, with a weaker schedule than the other teams involved, and a team that really should be the best of the group (but often hasn't been, as evidenced by that Thursday night loss to Denver). Their only remaining game against a team with a winning record will be at home against the Giants. The Jets do have to get through two trap games at Philly and at Miami to close the season, but bet on seeing them still playing come January.

As for the NFC playoffs picture, it is a bit more murky. You can write the Packers and 49ers into the 1 and 2 seeds right now, assuming a key player does not get injured in the next few weeks. The Saints look like a good bet to win the South, and either the Cowboys or Giants ought to claim the East division. That leaves the Cowboys/Giants loser (currently both 6-4), Bears, Lions and Falcons, with a way-way-way outside shot for the Eagles, Buccaneers and Seahawks. The Lions and Bears are the best two teams in that group, and that is why they have the best records of that group at 7-3 each. Unfortunately, both teams are dealing with injuries right now. The Lions haven't had Jahvid Best for three weeks, and the Bears just lost Jay Cutler for the rest of the regular season (or maybe not, the doctors say he might be back sooner. I have no idea what the hell is going on with all of that nonsense. I don't even get why a broken thumb requires surgery. Can't you just set it and take it easy for several weeks? Someone who knows more than me about this, enlighten me please). That leaves a huge question mark, especially for the Bears, who still have to travel to Oakland, Denver, and Green Bay before the year is over. Can they win those with Caleb Hanie? He played decent in the playoffs game last year, but it was mostly the Bears defense that dominated. They are going to have to really step up for a six-game stretch now.

The Best injury doesn't concern me for the Lions quite as much as their schedule does. Detroit still has two games to play against Green Bay as well as games at New Orleans, at Oakland and home against San Diego. I don't think 9-7 will cut it this year for a wildcard in the NFC, so the Lions will have to finish 3-3. With those teams comprising five of their six remaining games, it will not be easy.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have a tough remaining schedule as well traveling to New Orleans and Houston, as well as a game at Carolina that should be tough, given that the Panthers play just about everybody tight. The big advantage Atlanta has is they beat Detroit in week seven. If the Falcons can manage to finish the season at 10-6, they would likely beat out the Lions for a playoff spot (or obviously the Bears could just disintegrate making that tiebreaker meaningless. The point is an NFC North team would be gone.)

As for the Giants and Cowboys, they still have to play each other twice. The Giants' other games are much tougher, with matches against Green Bay and at the Jets still to play. The Cowboys' toughest remaining game aside from the Giants ones figures to be a home game against Philadelphia. Dallas is certainly the favorite to win the division right now, but I don't see the second place team in the division being a factor for the playoffs. It is extremely unlikely both of these teams make it to 10-6, and if they do, the Lions have a tiebreaker on the Cowboys due to their head-to-head win in week 4.

In the NFC, three from the North in the playoffs is still very much in play. It appears to rest on the shoulders of Caleb Hanie and whether he can keep the Bears afloat. He and Matthew Stafford both have a game's advantage on the field. They need to treat the rest of this season like both men should be treating every snap in a game: protect the ball, protect the lead, don't turn it over, play a steady, solid game. Their teammates are good enough to get them the rest of the way there.

Lockout angst: When did baseball become the good example?

It doesn't feel like all that long ago when baseball had an awful strike, missed a ton of time, and alienated many of its fans into jumping ship because they didn't want to deal with these rich guys' "problems" anymore.

For a modern example of what happened to the MLB in 1994-95, look no further than what Netflix has done the past five months, or what the NBA is trying to do as we speak. Both are excellent emulations of that less-than-excellent situation from 16 years ago in baseball.

So after all the messy news about the NFL lockout and among all the messy news about the NBA lockout (which is looking about as bad as Jared Leto's face in Fight Club), it was almost impossible to believe that I could be reading this.

According to the report, Major League Baseball has reached a verbal labor agreement between the players and owners for when their current deal runs out in...DECEMBER. Wait, What? They're allowed to negotiate and be productive before the current deal runs out? That's so weird, cause I would have thought if that was the case the NFL and NBA might have taken advantage of some negotiating sessions before they actually entered the lockout phase.

Since when did the MLB start setting the good example? This post comes on the heels of what I wrote about yesterday, when they made more good moves (adding more teams to the playoffs and moving the Astros to the AL). Sure, basketball and football were facing bigger issues that needed working out when they came out of their most recent labors deals than baseball is. But come on. This is the way this stuff is supposed to go down. Some smart people get together who understand what is going on, talk it out, and come up with a new deal. You don't get petty and take potshots at each other in between negotiations, offer deals that you know aren't going to be accepted because they are unreasonable, and wait forever to actually negotiate in earnest. If you'd have told me five years ago that in 2011 we would have three separate labor negotiations happen, that two of them would go poorly and one would go well, I would have never guessed the good would have come from baseball. If you'd have told me baseball would do a better job than the NBA or especially the NFL, I would have called you an idiot.

But here we are, in 2011, and the MLB appears to have done a good job making sure it can hang onto the momentum it gained from a phenomenal close to the regular season, phenomenal playoffs and PHENOMENAL World Series. NFL, NBA, you should be ashamed of yourselves. Your ne'er-do-well older brother just got called into the game and won the town over because you two were unavailable. Make sure you don't do this again, or Hockey just may slip on by you as well.

Can we extend the college basketball season?

I've given up on the NBA. There is still plenty of opportunity for an NBA season to happen, and it probably will happen once most of the players have been without paychecks for a month or two or three. But I can't even stand to think about that. Even a 40 game NBA season wouldn't be started for a long time to come.

So is there any way we could get the college basketball season started up earlier? Or maybe move the conference tournaments three weeks and add eight or nine more games to every team's schedule? That way I'd have a little bit more ball to watch.

I'm sick of reading headlines about NBA Labor discussions, the college conference shuffle and my fantasy football players continuing to be injured. Don't Andre Johnson and Darren McFadden understand that we're smack in the middle of the bye portion of football season, and I don't have anybody else to put in the game? I digress, though. This wasn't supposed to be about football.

It was supposed to be an appeal to the NCAA: find a way to give me 3 more Big Mondays, Super Tuesdays, ACC Wednesdays and all the other wacky names ESPN should start giving to days of the week during college basketball season. Find a way to give me an extra three weeks of Duke games on television (because Duke is always on TV. It's probably the biggest perk of being a Duke fan). Most of all, just give me more basketball to watch, because As awesome as the NFL is, it's only two (sometimes three) days a week. And two (sometimes three) out of seven just isn't getting it done anymore.

What is going on in New Orleans?

After five weeks, the New Orleans Saints looked like one of two dominant forces in the NFC. They were 4-1, with the one loss coming to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, in a 42-34 shootout. Basically, the Saints would have been 5-0 if they had played anyone other than the Packers in Week 1.

After winning four games in a row, though, the Saints went to Tampa Bay and lost a head-scratcher to the Bunccaneers (who had just been dismantled 48-3 the week before in San Francisco). "Chalk it up to just one of those bad days that you occasionally get in the NFL," I thought. Then the Saints went and put up the most points since the merger in embarrassing the Colts 62-7. "Right, last week was just a hiccup," I thought. Now in week seven, New Orleans produced the most eyebrow-raising result of all: a 31-21 loss to previously winless Saint Louis (and the Saints' final score came in garbage time, when the game was over). After looking like one of the teams to beat in the NFC through five weeks, the Saints look more like an also-ran after eight. They are still likely to make the playoffs, but with their inability to win on the road, they wouldn't figure to be contenders when January rolls around.

So what the hell is going on with those guys? Clearly there is a big difference between home and road games for New Orleans right now. The Saints' two road wins came against Jacksonville and Carolina, and they have enjoyed three excellent offensive performances at home, putting 30 points on Chicago, 40 on Houston and the aforementioned 62 on Indy.

Right now, the Saints have two major problems. The first is Drew Brees' play recently. Over the last 5 weeks, Brees has thrown an interception in four games (the exception being vs. Indy) and three of those were multi-interception games. The Saints are always going to be relying on their offense to win games for them, because it is so explosive. Their defense is by no means bad, but it is typically not going to be good enough to win them games, especially when Brees is providing the opponents with short fields due to turnovers. So long as Brees is turning it over, the Saints will continue to struggle.

The other problem is with the Saints run-defense. Over the same stretch of five games, the Saints have allowed three 100-yard rushers. The two exceptions: the Indy abomination (of course) and when they played at Jacksonville and Maurice Jones-Drew averaged almost eight yards per carry but only carried the ball 11 times for reasons that will probably never be known. What other teams were doing is unimportant, though. The fact remains that the Saints have had a lot of trouble stopping the run. This is bad for the obvious reason that not being able to stop the run is bad, and also because teams effectively running the ball is going to keep the New Orleans offense off the field for longer, giving them bigger problems.

Whatever is going on in New Orleans, they've got to put a stop to it soon. The Falcons appear to have hit their stride somewhat and are playing better football, and the Buccaneers already have a tiebreak advantage on the Saints. They'll have to play much better football if they plan on winning the NFC South this year.

NFL Contenders: who is for real?

So far, there are just three teams that I can confidently say fit the bill as far as being as good as their records indicate and being good enough that we should expect to see them in the playoffs, probably at least in the divisional round: the Packers, Ravens and Patriots. Those three teams have proved through six games that they are the real deal, winning close games, blowing teams out, and generally playing well. The NFL currently has 10 more teams with records of 4-2 or better, indicating that they are probably pretty good. I'm not sold on any of them though, so I've decided to investigate why. In reverse order how much of a player they really are, here are the "good" teams I haven't bought into yet.

Cincinnati Bengals ESPN.com PowerRank: 18
The Bungals are without a doubt the most surprising of these teams for me. What's even more shocking is that their two losses are by a combined seven points, meaning Cincy could have pretty easily been 5-1 or even 6-0 at this point in the season. A quick look at the Bengals' schedule, however, and it is easy to lose your interest in them as a great team. Three of their wins have come against Cleveland, Jacksonville and Indianapolis. The fourth was a home win over the Bills, a good team, but a team that has not proven itself on the road yet. The Bengals schedule will get harder, with four games against the Steelers and Ravens coming up, but otherwise it is pretty weak, with games against Seattle, St. Louis, Cleveland and Arizona--all winnable games. Still, a young team like this one is going to be due for a road loss or two against some no-so-great opponents. The silver lining for Cincy is that even a poor finish of 4-6 still results in an 8-8 record, which has to be considered a success for this team, especially with getting two first round picks after finally (potentially at the time of this writing) moving Carson Palmer. The future may be brighter than expected for Bengals fans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ESPN.com PowerRank: 12
The Buccaneers are an extremely perplexing team through six weeks. Coming off a 10-6 mark last year, they looked like a team that could make some noise despite being in a tough division. They began giving up a lead to the Lions (who have turned out to be pretty good), then won three straight games against by smaller margins than would have been expected against weak teams (Vikings, Falcons, Colts). In week 5 they suffered the most lopsided loss in the NFL season so far, losing by 45 to San Francisco. So it makes perfect sense, then, that looking completely overrated going into a game with the red-hot Saints, that the Bucs would shut down New Orleans' offensive attack en route to a 26-20 win. The Bucs have been impossible to predict. They are still a young team, so perhaps their inconsistency is a product of youth. Josh Freeman has only played in two games this year (Indy and New Orleans), so if he can get it going, they figure to be a tough out. The one thing the Bucs have going for them is their division appears to be a good bet for getting two teams in the playoffs with the NFC East and West both looking bad. Still, it's really hard to put much faith in a team that loses 48-3 no matter what the circumstances.

Oakland Raiders ESPN.com PowerRank: 9
The Raiders dropped on this list several spots with the injury to Jason Campbell. Campbell is by no stretch of the imagination a great quarterback or even a very good one, but he is a huge improvement over Kyle Boller and Terrelle Pryor. Campbell is good enough to keep teams from throwing eight guys into the box so Darren McFadden has a chance to succeed. With Boller, Run can just kiss his dreams of a rushing title goodbye. That is why the Raiders are going all-in for Carson Palmer--they believe he can keep teams honest enough for them to keep running the ball. Beyond that, the Raiders still have the glaring issue of committing tons of penalties. Until they are able to cut down on the mistakes, I'm not hopping on the Raiders bandwagon.

Buffalo Bills ESPN.com PowerRank: 10
The Bills are 3-0 at home and 1-2 on the road. Their one road win came in week 1 when they beat the Chiefs 41-7. For the first three weeks of the season, though, the Chiefs were completely out of sorts. The Bills caught them at the right time. What's more, is each of the Bills' other five games have been decided by seven points or less. Four of them were three point margins. And at 3-0 they went on the road and played really poorly in Cincinnati. That kind of thing would never happen to a team that was really a contender. As much as I love Fitzy and Fred Jackson, the Bills will have to show more on the road to contend. In weeks 11 and 12 they travel to Miami and New York to face AFC East teams. By week 13, we'll know if the Bills are definitely for real or not.

New York Giants ESPN.com PowerRank: 11
When the Giants pop into my head, I'm inclined to think that they are one of the NFC's better teams. But a quick look at what they've done so far says that intuition is wrong. Their two losses are at Washington and vs. Seattle. Their best win is their most recent one, a 27-24 win over Buffalo at home (again, the Bills have not been good on the road). Also, Eli Manning, one of the most inconsistent players in the NFL (just ask his fantasy owners), is their quarterback. As things stand in the NFC East at the moment, the Giants look good to make the playoffs due to the poor start of the Eagles and Cowboys, in addition to the fact that the Redskins' implosion is imminent if it didn't happen last week during Sexy Rexy's 4 INT performance. The Giants still have a great defensive line, as they have for the past decade, and that is still a difference-maker in the NFL. Nonetheless, are these Giants for real? No way, not yet. A likely also-ran come playoff time.

San Francisco 49ers ESPN.com PowerRank: 4
I don't have a great statistical reason for not buying into the 49ers, and especially not for having them so low on this list. Just from watching them, I refuse to believe they will keep up this winning pace. They will almost certainly make the playoffs; they still have five games against NFC West teams left, as well as games against Cleveland and Washington. An 11 or maybe even 12 win season is well within reach for the 49ers. But Alex Smith is still their quarterback. Yeah, he's had a bunch of different head coaches and maybe he's never been given optimal chance to succeed. So sure, he's probably going to be consistently better this year, but he's still not very good. That's why the niners are 30th in passing yards per game right now. Smith has only thrown two interceptions this year, an excellent job. But I don't believe he will only throw 5-6 interceptions on the season. Think about that. That would be insane! So what happens if the 49ers fall behind? I don't see much ability to come back in games because of the poor passing offense. You can't make me believe in Alex Smith after he's had six mediocre games. Sorry, not gonna happen.

Detroit Lions ESPN.com PowerRank: 6
Yes, I know the 49ers beat the Lions in Detroit last weekend, so this is completely unfair of me. But this is not a power rank, it's a ranking of who I believe we are most likely to be looking at as contenders when the final month of the season comes around. From what I've seen, that's the Lions. The Lions' biggest problem is that they share a division with the Packers. I wrote recently about how much I liked the way the Lions were playing, but that doesn't mean they don't have some problems. Their inability to get any power-running game going has been talked to death recently. Matt Stafford is good for 3 to 4 egregious overthrows on would-be touchdown plays per game. That being said, the Lions were playing with fire in most of their games this season and were due for a loss. They are still an explosive offense, and still have a pretty good defense. Sounds like a team that is just on the cusp of being a contender to me.

Pittsburgh Steelers ESPN.com PowerRank 8
If I was writing this based on the chances I believed a team had of making the playoffs, the 49ers and Steelers would be 1-2 without a doubt. That's because the Steelers have sneaked their way to 4-2 despite playing the worst football that's been seen in Pittsburgh in five years. They have been shut down by the Ravens and Texans, and only beat Indy and Jacksonville by a combined seven points. They aren't that good. However, they are the Steelers, which means they will eventually put it all together and start playing well again. O, and they still have four games against the Bengals and Browns to look forward to. Still, they've only played one good team so far, and got absolutely smashed by the Ravens. The Steelers might have lost just enough to not be one of the league's elite this year.

San Diego Chargers ESPN.com PowerRank: 7
For once the Chargers have started the season quickly, with a 4-1 record so far. The only problem is they have played like garbage. The only game they've looked good is ironically in their one loss, a 35-21 setback at New England. Otherwise, they've beaten Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami and Denver by 7, 3, 10 and 5 points. Not that impressive. As is always the case, though, the Chargers are one of the most talented teams in the NFL, and this year appear to have a more reliable running game with Ryan Mathews getting it together. With the way this team has played football the past several years (not caring 75 percent of the time), it's hard to include them in any contenders list. I picked them to make the Super Bowl in my NFL preview and I'm already pissed at myself for that one. They're 4-1, but the Chargers still just don't look like they have any drive to win. Watch the Bengals play on Sundays. They aren't talented, but they give a crap. They play hard. Then watch the Chargers. You won't that mentality at all. Until I see that, the Chargers will never be contenders.

New Orleans Saints ESPN.com PowerRank: 5
Through 5 weeks the Saints were a no-brainer contender. They were 4-1 with the loss coming in a shootout at Lambeau Field against a decent (ha) Packers team. Then the Saints suffered a head-scratching loss at Tampa Bay (who was coming off a 45-point drubbing and looked like crap) in week 6. Drew Brees has now thrown eight picks in the Saints' last four games. Call me crazy, but I don't think Drew is going to throw 20 more picks this season. His turnover numbers go down, and the Saints probably don't lose those head-scratchers anymore. You know what? Screw it. I just wrote myself into putting the Saints back into my contenders category. I panicked after seeing the TB loss, and just talked myself back off the ledge. New Orleans is for real.