NFL Divisional Playoffs. Wheeling, dealing and concealing

After last week's 2-0 in the NFL playoffs, including just about nailing the Saints-Lions score, I'm feeling good. So I'm probably due for a 1-3 spot this weekend, but here come some picks anyway...

Saints at 49ers
Bill Barnwell of Grantland.com made a pretty strong case as to why this game is going to be closer than many people think, and he even picked San Francisco to come out on top in the game. But as convincing as the numbers Barnwell displayed are, I'm not buying into them. The 49ers are going to be relying on Alex Smith to win them this game. Alex Smith, with no postseason experience, who until this year had been bad (and then was merely serviceable in 2011). Nah, I'll go with Drew Brees, despite him and the Saints offense being significantly worse on the road than at home. I know, I know, the Saints blew it last year against the Seahawks in a similar situation: favored team on the road. But this Saints group is rolling way better than last year's.
Saints 30-49ers 17

Broncos at Patriots
Last week even though I didn't write about it, I picked the Steelers to beat the Broncos, because I figured their defense was good enough to hold the Broncos under 10 points, and even their depleted offense would be good enough to score in double digits. Obviously, most of that was incorrect. The Broncos turned out to have an excellent offensive game plan, the Steelers defense was porous, and they couldn't overcome their injuries. This week, though, it is the Broncos who are missing more players, against a team that has already beaten them 41-23. Neither Brian Dawkins nor Eric Decker will be playing Saturday night for the Broncos, which means Denver will be without one of its key players on both sides of the ball. Add that to the fact that this is being played in Foxborough, where the Patriots seldom lose, in what will be cold weather, and it's just too tough to make the call that the Broncos will do it again.
Patriots 35-Broncos 17

Texans at Ravens
A month and a half ago I wrote the Ravens were my end-of-season Super Bowl pick, because when they play in important games and play hard, they are dominant. And while we still haven't seen the Ravens go up against one of the NFL's great offenses from this year, there's no reason to back off them this week. Everyone in Baltimore is healthy, and they'll be playing against a team in Houston that is anything but healthy. Andre Johnson still isn't 100 percent, Mario Williams is gone and, oh yeah, TJ Yates is their starting quarterback. This one seems too good to be true.
Ravens 31-Texans 14

Giants at Packers
And now for the game I want to write nothing about, because I feel like no matter how I write it, I will be jinxing/correctly dooming the Packers into a loss. When I think about this game, I'm terrified. Not because this game is shaping up to be a repeat of 2007 for the Giants (play the best team late the in regular season, barely lose, tear it up after that point, meet the Packers in the playoffs, beat them in 2007). Really, I'm terrified because one's favorite team can always go out in the blink of an eye in the NFL playoffs. There is no series to come back in. And any team can put together a solid performance. But really, the Packers should win this game. Greg Jennings is back, the other receivers were excellent in his absence, and I think James Starks and Ryan Grant are primed to deliver 40-ish rushing yards apiece, which is plenty to ensure that the Packers' offense is having a good day.
Packers 34-Giants 21

What is going on in New Orleans?

After five weeks, the New Orleans Saints looked like one of two dominant forces in the NFC. They were 4-1, with the one loss coming to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, in a 42-34 shootout. Basically, the Saints would have been 5-0 if they had played anyone other than the Packers in Week 1.

After winning four games in a row, though, the Saints went to Tampa Bay and lost a head-scratcher to the Bunccaneers (who had just been dismantled 48-3 the week before in San Francisco). "Chalk it up to just one of those bad days that you occasionally get in the NFL," I thought. Then the Saints went and put up the most points since the merger in embarrassing the Colts 62-7. "Right, last week was just a hiccup," I thought. Now in week seven, New Orleans produced the most eyebrow-raising result of all: a 31-21 loss to previously winless Saint Louis (and the Saints' final score came in garbage time, when the game was over). After looking like one of the teams to beat in the NFC through five weeks, the Saints look more like an also-ran after eight. They are still likely to make the playoffs, but with their inability to win on the road, they wouldn't figure to be contenders when January rolls around.

So what the hell is going on with those guys? Clearly there is a big difference between home and road games for New Orleans right now. The Saints' two road wins came against Jacksonville and Carolina, and they have enjoyed three excellent offensive performances at home, putting 30 points on Chicago, 40 on Houston and the aforementioned 62 on Indy.

Right now, the Saints have two major problems. The first is Drew Brees' play recently. Over the last 5 weeks, Brees has thrown an interception in four games (the exception being vs. Indy) and three of those were multi-interception games. The Saints are always going to be relying on their offense to win games for them, because it is so explosive. Their defense is by no means bad, but it is typically not going to be good enough to win them games, especially when Brees is providing the opponents with short fields due to turnovers. So long as Brees is turning it over, the Saints will continue to struggle.

The other problem is with the Saints run-defense. Over the same stretch of five games, the Saints have allowed three 100-yard rushers. The two exceptions: the Indy abomination (of course) and when they played at Jacksonville and Maurice Jones-Drew averaged almost eight yards per carry but only carried the ball 11 times for reasons that will probably never be known. What other teams were doing is unimportant, though. The fact remains that the Saints have had a lot of trouble stopping the run. This is bad for the obvious reason that not being able to stop the run is bad, and also because teams effectively running the ball is going to keep the New Orleans offense off the field for longer, giving them bigger problems.

Whatever is going on in New Orleans, they've got to put a stop to it soon. The Falcons appear to have hit their stride somewhat and are playing better football, and the Buccaneers already have a tiebreak advantage on the Saints. They'll have to play much better football if they plan on winning the NFC South this year.