A duo of playoff trios?

We're past all the bye weeks in the NFL; from here on out, every team will play in each of the next six weeks, and their playoff fates will be decided. The final third of this year's season presents a very unique playoff scenario: a real chance to have three teams representing the same division on both sides of the playoff bracket. A funny coincidence that adds to the potential rarity of this situation is that both divisions happen to be the North division in their respective conferences. As the standings sit today, post week-11 results, the Packers, Bears and Lions would all make the playoffs from the NFC North, and the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals would all make the playoffs from the AFC North.

Now, how rare is this, really? Turns out, it's happened once before, in 2007. That year the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins all made the playoffs from the NFC East while the Colts, Jaguars and Titans all made the playoffs from the AFC South. Despite the fact this has happened so recently, it is the only instance I was able to uncover of this happening. Will it happen a second time this year? Unfortunately, probably not.

At 6-4, the Bengals are the least likely of the AFC North teams to make the playoffs, especially having lost their first matchup against both the Steelers and Ravens despite being competitive in both games. Standing in their way for the wildcard spot other than the one the Ravens are assumed to get are the Jets (5-5), Titans (5-5), and Broncos (5-5). The other AFC West teams have an outside shot at a playoffs spot as well. Unfortunately for Cincy, their schedule closing out is pretty tough. They still have games in Pittsburgh, and at home against Houston and Baltimore. If they don't win their other three games and at least one of those, their playoff chances are kaput at 9-7. According to ESPN's playoff machine, the only filter in which the Bengals will make the playoffs is if home teams win the rest of the season (not very reliable). The Jets look like the best bet to make the playoffs, with a weaker schedule than the other teams involved, and a team that really should be the best of the group (but often hasn't been, as evidenced by that Thursday night loss to Denver). Their only remaining game against a team with a winning record will be at home against the Giants. The Jets do have to get through two trap games at Philly and at Miami to close the season, but bet on seeing them still playing come January.

As for the NFC playoffs picture, it is a bit more murky. You can write the Packers and 49ers into the 1 and 2 seeds right now, assuming a key player does not get injured in the next few weeks. The Saints look like a good bet to win the South, and either the Cowboys or Giants ought to claim the East division. That leaves the Cowboys/Giants loser (currently both 6-4), Bears, Lions and Falcons, with a way-way-way outside shot for the Eagles, Buccaneers and Seahawks. The Lions and Bears are the best two teams in that group, and that is why they have the best records of that group at 7-3 each. Unfortunately, both teams are dealing with injuries right now. The Lions haven't had Jahvid Best for three weeks, and the Bears just lost Jay Cutler for the rest of the regular season (or maybe not, the doctors say he might be back sooner. I have no idea what the hell is going on with all of that nonsense. I don't even get why a broken thumb requires surgery. Can't you just set it and take it easy for several weeks? Someone who knows more than me about this, enlighten me please). That leaves a huge question mark, especially for the Bears, who still have to travel to Oakland, Denver, and Green Bay before the year is over. Can they win those with Caleb Hanie? He played decent in the playoffs game last year, but it was mostly the Bears defense that dominated. They are going to have to really step up for a six-game stretch now.

The Best injury doesn't concern me for the Lions quite as much as their schedule does. Detroit still has two games to play against Green Bay as well as games at New Orleans, at Oakland and home against San Diego. I don't think 9-7 will cut it this year for a wildcard in the NFC, so the Lions will have to finish 3-3. With those teams comprising five of their six remaining games, it will not be easy.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have a tough remaining schedule as well traveling to New Orleans and Houston, as well as a game at Carolina that should be tough, given that the Panthers play just about everybody tight. The big advantage Atlanta has is they beat Detroit in week seven. If the Falcons can manage to finish the season at 10-6, they would likely beat out the Lions for a playoff spot (or obviously the Bears could just disintegrate making that tiebreaker meaningless. The point is an NFC North team would be gone.)

As for the Giants and Cowboys, they still have to play each other twice. The Giants' other games are much tougher, with matches against Green Bay and at the Jets still to play. The Cowboys' toughest remaining game aside from the Giants ones figures to be a home game against Philadelphia. Dallas is certainly the favorite to win the division right now, but I don't see the second place team in the division being a factor for the playoffs. It is extremely unlikely both of these teams make it to 10-6, and if they do, the Lions have a tiebreaker on the Cowboys due to their head-to-head win in week 4.

In the NFC, three from the North in the playoffs is still very much in play. It appears to rest on the shoulders of Caleb Hanie and whether he can keep the Bears afloat. He and Matthew Stafford both have a game's advantage on the field. They need to treat the rest of this season like both men should be treating every snap in a game: protect the ball, protect the lead, don't turn it over, play a steady, solid game. Their teammates are good enough to get them the rest of the way there.

The AFC North up for grabs

Last night the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a game that was as boring as Bama-LSU for two and a half quarters, but featured an excellent, redeeming fourth quarter. With the win, the Ravens moved into first place in the AFC North at 6-2. The Steelers, yet to enjoy their bye week, are a half game back at 6-3. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals went and got a win on the road at the Titans (a team that beat Baltimore) to keep pace with the Ravens in the division.

All of this seems to be leading to a hopefully very entertaining second half of the season in the AFC North. The consensus seems to be that the Bengals will fall out of contention as their schedule gets tougher (they still have both games against the Steelers and Ravens to look forward to), but I'm not so sure I agree. Cincy has shown a remarkable ability to have the occasional long, steady drive that slows everything down in a game. They are not a gangbusters offense, but they have put up 23 or more points (enough to win a slower game in the NFL) every week except one so far this season. That is some remarkable consistency. If there is one advantage the Bengals have over their AFC North counterparts, it is that consistency. The Ravens have been on and off this season: some great games, then a 26-13 embarrassment at Tennessee, the Monday night debacle at Jacksonville, and then a barely-squeaked-out comeback win over Arizona at home. The Steelers have looked more consistent the past three weeks, but the week 1 thrashing in Baltimore, a 10-point performance in Houston, as well as escaping with wins in Indy and against Jacksonville doesn't have me convinced that the Steelers are 100 percent themselves yet.

All the stats would seem to indicate that the Steelers and Ravens are superior to the Bengals, and I believe them. I don't think the Bengals are a great team. But they are 6-2 right now, and yes, the schedule will get tougher, but don't they seem good enough to win a home game against Baltimore or Pittsburgh? With the up-and-down seasons those two teams have had, there's almost no way Cincy goes 0-4 in the games against their two rivals. Other than those four, the Bengals close against Cleveland, Houston, St. Louis and Arizona. That should be 3-1 at the worst. We could easily be looking at an 11-5 Bengals team by the end of the year. That seems like it should be good enough to make the playoffs.

Meanwhile, don't discount Baltimore or Pittsburgh's schedule. The Ravens at home against San Francisco, at San Diego and at Cincinnati (I don't see that last one as a gimme game anymore). The Steelers still have to play at Cincy and at San Francisco, and they are behind the Bengals right now. Neither of those are as tough as what the Bengals have lying ahead, but they aren't cakewalks, either. Two or three losses could spell doom for any of these teams, and it is never easy in the NFL to play with that level of perfection.

I'm looking forward to weeks 10-17 in the NFL for a lot of reasons: the Packers' shot at 16-0, the Patriots all-of-a-sudden looking weak, and the NFC East shaking out in crazy fashion like it always seems to do the last three or four weeks of the season. But maybe most of all, I'm looking forward to seeing what happens in the AFC North. Because I have no idea what is going to.

NFL Contenders: who is for real?

So far, there are just three teams that I can confidently say fit the bill as far as being as good as their records indicate and being good enough that we should expect to see them in the playoffs, probably at least in the divisional round: the Packers, Ravens and Patriots. Those three teams have proved through six games that they are the real deal, winning close games, blowing teams out, and generally playing well. The NFL currently has 10 more teams with records of 4-2 or better, indicating that they are probably pretty good. I'm not sold on any of them though, so I've decided to investigate why. In reverse order how much of a player they really are, here are the "good" teams I haven't bought into yet.

Cincinnati Bengals ESPN.com PowerRank: 18
The Bungals are without a doubt the most surprising of these teams for me. What's even more shocking is that their two losses are by a combined seven points, meaning Cincy could have pretty easily been 5-1 or even 6-0 at this point in the season. A quick look at the Bengals' schedule, however, and it is easy to lose your interest in them as a great team. Three of their wins have come against Cleveland, Jacksonville and Indianapolis. The fourth was a home win over the Bills, a good team, but a team that has not proven itself on the road yet. The Bengals schedule will get harder, with four games against the Steelers and Ravens coming up, but otherwise it is pretty weak, with games against Seattle, St. Louis, Cleveland and Arizona--all winnable games. Still, a young team like this one is going to be due for a road loss or two against some no-so-great opponents. The silver lining for Cincy is that even a poor finish of 4-6 still results in an 8-8 record, which has to be considered a success for this team, especially with getting two first round picks after finally (potentially at the time of this writing) moving Carson Palmer. The future may be brighter than expected for Bengals fans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ESPN.com PowerRank: 12
The Buccaneers are an extremely perplexing team through six weeks. Coming off a 10-6 mark last year, they looked like a team that could make some noise despite being in a tough division. They began giving up a lead to the Lions (who have turned out to be pretty good), then won three straight games against by smaller margins than would have been expected against weak teams (Vikings, Falcons, Colts). In week 5 they suffered the most lopsided loss in the NFL season so far, losing by 45 to San Francisco. So it makes perfect sense, then, that looking completely overrated going into a game with the red-hot Saints, that the Bucs would shut down New Orleans' offensive attack en route to a 26-20 win. The Bucs have been impossible to predict. They are still a young team, so perhaps their inconsistency is a product of youth. Josh Freeman has only played in two games this year (Indy and New Orleans), so if he can get it going, they figure to be a tough out. The one thing the Bucs have going for them is their division appears to be a good bet for getting two teams in the playoffs with the NFC East and West both looking bad. Still, it's really hard to put much faith in a team that loses 48-3 no matter what the circumstances.

Oakland Raiders ESPN.com PowerRank: 9
The Raiders dropped on this list several spots with the injury to Jason Campbell. Campbell is by no stretch of the imagination a great quarterback or even a very good one, but he is a huge improvement over Kyle Boller and Terrelle Pryor. Campbell is good enough to keep teams from throwing eight guys into the box so Darren McFadden has a chance to succeed. With Boller, Run can just kiss his dreams of a rushing title goodbye. That is why the Raiders are going all-in for Carson Palmer--they believe he can keep teams honest enough for them to keep running the ball. Beyond that, the Raiders still have the glaring issue of committing tons of penalties. Until they are able to cut down on the mistakes, I'm not hopping on the Raiders bandwagon.

Buffalo Bills ESPN.com PowerRank: 10
The Bills are 3-0 at home and 1-2 on the road. Their one road win came in week 1 when they beat the Chiefs 41-7. For the first three weeks of the season, though, the Chiefs were completely out of sorts. The Bills caught them at the right time. What's more, is each of the Bills' other five games have been decided by seven points or less. Four of them were three point margins. And at 3-0 they went on the road and played really poorly in Cincinnati. That kind of thing would never happen to a team that was really a contender. As much as I love Fitzy and Fred Jackson, the Bills will have to show more on the road to contend. In weeks 11 and 12 they travel to Miami and New York to face AFC East teams. By week 13, we'll know if the Bills are definitely for real or not.

New York Giants ESPN.com PowerRank: 11
When the Giants pop into my head, I'm inclined to think that they are one of the NFC's better teams. But a quick look at what they've done so far says that intuition is wrong. Their two losses are at Washington and vs. Seattle. Their best win is their most recent one, a 27-24 win over Buffalo at home (again, the Bills have not been good on the road). Also, Eli Manning, one of the most inconsistent players in the NFL (just ask his fantasy owners), is their quarterback. As things stand in the NFC East at the moment, the Giants look good to make the playoffs due to the poor start of the Eagles and Cowboys, in addition to the fact that the Redskins' implosion is imminent if it didn't happen last week during Sexy Rexy's 4 INT performance. The Giants still have a great defensive line, as they have for the past decade, and that is still a difference-maker in the NFL. Nonetheless, are these Giants for real? No way, not yet. A likely also-ran come playoff time.

San Francisco 49ers ESPN.com PowerRank: 4
I don't have a great statistical reason for not buying into the 49ers, and especially not for having them so low on this list. Just from watching them, I refuse to believe they will keep up this winning pace. They will almost certainly make the playoffs; they still have five games against NFC West teams left, as well as games against Cleveland and Washington. An 11 or maybe even 12 win season is well within reach for the 49ers. But Alex Smith is still their quarterback. Yeah, he's had a bunch of different head coaches and maybe he's never been given optimal chance to succeed. So sure, he's probably going to be consistently better this year, but he's still not very good. That's why the niners are 30th in passing yards per game right now. Smith has only thrown two interceptions this year, an excellent job. But I don't believe he will only throw 5-6 interceptions on the season. Think about that. That would be insane! So what happens if the 49ers fall behind? I don't see much ability to come back in games because of the poor passing offense. You can't make me believe in Alex Smith after he's had six mediocre games. Sorry, not gonna happen.

Detroit Lions ESPN.com PowerRank: 6
Yes, I know the 49ers beat the Lions in Detroit last weekend, so this is completely unfair of me. But this is not a power rank, it's a ranking of who I believe we are most likely to be looking at as contenders when the final month of the season comes around. From what I've seen, that's the Lions. The Lions' biggest problem is that they share a division with the Packers. I wrote recently about how much I liked the way the Lions were playing, but that doesn't mean they don't have some problems. Their inability to get any power-running game going has been talked to death recently. Matt Stafford is good for 3 to 4 egregious overthrows on would-be touchdown plays per game. That being said, the Lions were playing with fire in most of their games this season and were due for a loss. They are still an explosive offense, and still have a pretty good defense. Sounds like a team that is just on the cusp of being a contender to me.

Pittsburgh Steelers ESPN.com PowerRank 8
If I was writing this based on the chances I believed a team had of making the playoffs, the 49ers and Steelers would be 1-2 without a doubt. That's because the Steelers have sneaked their way to 4-2 despite playing the worst football that's been seen in Pittsburgh in five years. They have been shut down by the Ravens and Texans, and only beat Indy and Jacksonville by a combined seven points. They aren't that good. However, they are the Steelers, which means they will eventually put it all together and start playing well again. O, and they still have four games against the Bengals and Browns to look forward to. Still, they've only played one good team so far, and got absolutely smashed by the Ravens. The Steelers might have lost just enough to not be one of the league's elite this year.

San Diego Chargers ESPN.com PowerRank: 7
For once the Chargers have started the season quickly, with a 4-1 record so far. The only problem is they have played like garbage. The only game they've looked good is ironically in their one loss, a 35-21 setback at New England. Otherwise, they've beaten Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami and Denver by 7, 3, 10 and 5 points. Not that impressive. As is always the case, though, the Chargers are one of the most talented teams in the NFL, and this year appear to have a more reliable running game with Ryan Mathews getting it together. With the way this team has played football the past several years (not caring 75 percent of the time), it's hard to include them in any contenders list. I picked them to make the Super Bowl in my NFL preview and I'm already pissed at myself for that one. They're 4-1, but the Chargers still just don't look like they have any drive to win. Watch the Bengals play on Sundays. They aren't talented, but they give a crap. They play hard. Then watch the Chargers. You won't that mentality at all. Until I see that, the Chargers will never be contenders.

New Orleans Saints ESPN.com PowerRank: 5
Through 5 weeks the Saints were a no-brainer contender. They were 4-1 with the loss coming in a shootout at Lambeau Field against a decent (ha) Packers team. Then the Saints suffered a head-scratching loss at Tampa Bay (who was coming off a 45-point drubbing and looked like crap) in week 6. Drew Brees has now thrown eight picks in the Saints' last four games. Call me crazy, but I don't think Drew is going to throw 20 more picks this season. His turnover numbers go down, and the Saints probably don't lose those head-scratchers anymore. You know what? Screw it. I just wrote myself into putting the Saints back into my contenders category. I panicked after seeing the TB loss, and just talked myself back off the ledge. New Orleans is for real.