Who will win the NBA Finals?

Through perhaps more twists and turns than expected, we got the NBA Finals most of us were expecting (and looking forward to). So which team is going to win?

Based on the conference Finals, the answer looks like the Thunder, without much issue. In games three through six against San Antonio, OKC asserted itself as the dominant team. In game three, the Spurs gave up early, conserving their energy for a more winnable contest. In games four, five and six though, OKC got San Antonio's best. Even with a fabulous first quarter in the decisive game, the Spurs couldn't hold off a more talented and physically superior Thunder team. And the crazy thing was, it felt a bit inevitable.

On the other hand, Miami is a much better defensive team than San Antonio. And Kevin Durant's virtuoso fourth quarter in game four of the Western Conference Finals was only outdone by Lebron James's entire-game (okay, 3.5 quarters and then he came out) performance in Boston for game six. And with Chris Bosh back, the Heat look like a team that is going to elevate its game to another level this postseason.

Here's the thing about the Thunder: their offense isn't very good. It consists entirely of jump-shooting, and often times those jump-shots come off all individual plays by Durant, Russell Westbrook or James Harden (although the Thunder showcased a much greater penchant for sharing the ball in the final two games of the West Finals). Typically, one of those guys is struggling a bit. But that doesn't matter much. When two of them are shooting well, the Thunder are extremely difficult to beat, because that jump-shooting, individually based offense works (works out). So an opponents best shot at defeating OKC comes when two players are having an off night. This is something that is guaranteed to happen sometimes. But four out of seven games? Not likely. And even if you do get four off games from two players, its not exactly a guaranteed win (see: game 4, Western Conference Finals).

Here's the thing about the Heat: if there is a team equipped to effectively defend the Thunder, it's them. Lebron James is the perfect body size and has enough quickness to guard Kevin Durant when it matters most. Dwyane Wade is just enough of a slimeball (and still has that quickness and athleticism) to veteranly (just now made that up) piss Westbrook off. Put Shane Battier on Harden, and you've got to be feeling pretty good about your ability to at least force the Thunder into more difficult shots at the end of a game (which granted, will all go in some games). Combine that with Chris Bosh pulling Serge Ibaka away from the basket more than anyone in San Antonio did, and the offensive end is opened up a bit more.

The problem with all this, of course, is that even a 45, 15 and 5 from Lebron will not be enough to put the Thunder away. When that happened in game six in Boston, the Celtics didn't know how to respond. They stuck around for as long as they could, but it quickly became clear that Lebron wasn't slowing down, no matter what they did to try and stop him. The Thunder may not be able to stop him if he goes off, but they will have the appropriate response: they won't care. Tony Parker scored 21 points in the first quarter against OKC in game 6, and the Thunder just shrugged it off. They kept playing, started scoring at a better clip, and eventually overwhelmed the Spurs. Miami isn't as likely to slow down as the Spurs were, but there was no team withstanding the onslaught the Thunder performance in the second half of game six.

Perhaps due to their youth, the Thunder just don't really know when to give up. Whereas many teams in the NBA (and other sports) decide to throw in the towel when they are getting stomped in order to conserve energy for the next game, the Thunder just don't have that mentality. And due to their prodigious talent level, it often ends up with them coming back and at least making the game close, even if it's not a win. In that way, they are very much the Rafael Nadal of basketball. (I was going to link to one shot in that video, but 95% of them represent the point I was trying to communicate. Rafa running himself ragged to chase down a ball that every other player I can think of would have given up on).

So unless Dwyane Wade gets himself going and plays much better than in the Boston series, I don't think Miami has the firepower to deal with OKC's combination of firepower and extreme amounts of will. That, plus the Thunder haven't lost at home yet, and they have the home court advantage.

Miami goes down to the team that wants it way more again, 4-2.

End Times in Miami?

So it's been quite a while since my last post and my excuse is that I've been very busy. In the past month I've moved from Ohio to Colorado and started a new job with the Craig Daily Press. For all my Eastern Time Zone readers, that means the posts are going to be coming across the horn later at night. Apologies for that. But with internet newly installed in my apartment, I'm ready to get back to doing some serious posting. It just so happens that I'm coming back during a particularly interesting time in sports.

There will be tennis posts to come. The Euro Soccer Championships will be thrilling, but they can wait. The New York Mets are enjoying success I could not have imagined at this point in the year, but it's still early in baseball. There has been an inordinate amount of news coming out of the Atlantic 10 this summer, and we'll get there soon enough. But I'm somewhat ashamed to admit that my interests match up with those of ESPN; that is to say, I want to talk about the Miami Heat.

If you have an excellent memory, you'll recall that I wrote about the Heat in one of my most recent posts. I talked about not being worried about the Heat, because they're just too talented to lose to most of the teams in the NBA when the games really matter. I continued to feel that way when the Indiana Pacers took a 2-1 lead on the Heat, and Miami won the next three games. I still didn't worry when the Celtics came back to tie the Eastern Conference Finals 2-2. Even Bosh-less, the Heat have way more talent than Boston. But now, there is nothing but worry for the Heat, because they are a game down and have to win in Boston to stay alive. Not impossible, but not feeling likely right now.

So how did this happen? How did Miami go from overwhelming favorite to the brink? Was it because we (I) overestimated them? I don't think so. They are the same team as last year (probably a bit better), the loss of Bosh notwithstanding. While I've battled the "inability to close" idea that ESPN and others have propagated since last season, it keeps coming true. But I think the term "close" is the wrong one. No one can close a game better than the Miami Heat when they have an eight point lead. They play loose and are unstoppable on offense, like normal. As a result, teams can't get any closer down the stretch.

But when Miami is in a two or three-point game, or losing by a few, the offense just doesn't seem to flow as freely. Dwyane Wade and Lebron James' drives to the basket don't even seem as smooth. They play a forced, rough style of basketball. During a normal part of any game, the layups are beautiful, inventive and always seem to drop. At the end of a close one, though, something is missing (couldn't find a video of Garnett blocking James down the stretch of game 5, but that's a good example. Just a basic, straight-line drive to the basket. That's not going to work in the NBA most times.) And it's not just better defense.

This is very interesting, because Wade and James have proven many times in the past that they are capable. Lebron James is the same guy that went for 47 against the eventual champion Boston Celtics in game 7, and single-handedly beat the Detroit Pistons in two overtimes in 2007. But in years past, he hasn't been there. He is still as dominant as ever, but isn't dominating at the right time, or at least not dominating enough to make that "right time" not matter.

Will that come back? Game 6 in Boston would be a good place to start.