Showing posts with label Durant. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Durant. Show all posts

Monday, June 11, 2012

Who will win the NBA Finals?



Through perhaps more twists and turns than expected, we got the NBA Finals most of us were expecting (and looking forward to). So which team is going to win?

Based on the conference Finals, the answer looks like the Thunder, without much issue. In games three through six against San Antonio, OKC asserted itself as the dominant team. In game three, the Spurs gave up early, conserving their energy for a more winnable contest. In games four, five and six though, OKC got San Antonio's best. Even with a fabulous first quarter in the decisive game, the Spurs couldn't hold off a more talented and physically superior Thunder team. And the crazy thing was, it felt a bit inevitable.

On the other hand, Miami is a much better defensive team than San Antonio. And Kevin Durant's virtuoso fourth quarter in game four of the Western Conference Finals was only outdone by Lebron James's entire-game (okay, 3.5 quarters and then he came out) performance in Boston for game six. And with Chris Bosh back, the Heat look like a team that is going to elevate its game to another level this postseason.

Here's the thing about the Thunder: their offense isn't very good. It consists entirely of jump-shooting, and often times those jump-shots come off all individual plays by Durant, Russell Westbrook or James Harden (although the Thunder showcased a much greater penchant for sharing the ball in the final two games of the West Finals). Typically, one of those guys is struggling a bit. But that doesn't matter much. When two of them are shooting well, the Thunder are extremely difficult to beat, because that jump-shooting, individually based offense works (works out). So an opponents best shot at defeating OKC comes when two players are having an off night. This is something that is guaranteed to happen sometimes. But four out of seven games? Not likely. And even if you do get four off games from two players, its not exactly a guaranteed win (see: game 4, Western Conference Finals).

Here's the thing about the Heat: if there is a team equipped to effectively defend the Thunder, it's them. Lebron James is the perfect body size and has enough quickness to guard Kevin Durant when it matters most. Dwyane Wade is just enough of a slimeball (and still has that quickness and athleticism) to veteranly (just now made that up) piss Westbrook off. Put Shane Battier on Harden, and you've got to be feeling pretty good about your ability to at least force the Thunder into more difficult shots at the end of a game (which granted, will all go in some games). Combine that with Chris Bosh pulling Serge Ibaka away from the basket more than anyone in San Antonio did, and the offensive end is opened up a bit more.

The problem with all this, of course, is that even a 45, 15 and 5 from Lebron will not be enough to put the Thunder away. When that happened in game six in Boston, the Celtics didn't know how to respond. They stuck around for as long as they could, but it quickly became clear that Lebron wasn't slowing down, no matter what they did to try and stop him. The Thunder may not be able to stop him if he goes off, but they will have the appropriate response: they won't care. Tony Parker scored 21 points in the first quarter against OKC in game 6, and the Thunder just shrugged it off. They kept playing, started scoring at a better clip, and eventually overwhelmed the Spurs. Miami isn't as likely to slow down as the Spurs were, but there was no team withstanding the onslaught the Thunder performance in the second half of game six.

Perhaps due to their youth, the Thunder just don't really know when to give up. Whereas many teams in the NBA (and other sports) decide to throw in the towel when they are getting stomped in order to conserve energy for the next game, the Thunder just don't have that mentality. And due to their prodigious talent level, it often ends up with them coming back and at least making the game close, even if it's not a win. In that way, they are very much the Rafael Nadal of basketball. (I was going to link to one shot in that video, but 95% of them represent the point I was trying to communicate. Rafa running himself ragged to chase down a ball that every other player I can think of would have given up on).

So unless Dwyane Wade gets himself going and plays much better than in the Boston series, I don't think Miami has the firepower to deal with OKC's combination of firepower and extreme amounts of will. That, plus the Thunder haven't lost at home yet, and they have the home court advantage.

Miami goes down to the team that wants it way more again, 4-2.

Friday, December 30, 2011

Who cares if a storm is a-brewing in Oklahoma City?


The NBA Season has begun, and while for many sports fans that is as exciting as a poopy-flavored lollipop, for the people in Oklahoma City, it is a thrilling prospect.

Their team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, lost the Western Conference Finals in six games to the eventual champion Dallas Mavericks. Despite the disappointment that always accompanies having your season ended with a loss, the Thunder had plenty to look forward to. They were the youngest team in the league, with two of its best young players and a nucleus of talent that seemed to genuinely enjoy playing with each other and would continue to improve. Things got even better after the lockout ended. The Thunder saw the Mavericks lose the defensive player that gave them fits in the postseason (Tyson Chandler), saw the Lakers get royally screwed by the NBA in the Chris Paul debacle, and watched the Spurs get another year older. Those were the three teams seeded higher than them in last year's Western Conference. Imagine the lofty expectations for 2012.

So imagine my surprise when, after a 4-0 start for the Thunder, all I am hearing about on Sportscenter and reading about online is whether Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant can get along. Come on. Of course we still remember Westbrook taking bad shot after bad shot against the Mavs, but he wasn't the reason they lost. Have you forgotten that Dirk Nowitski was scoring 65 a game and shooting 99 percent from the foul line throughout the playoffs? The Thunda's fate was sealed, whether Westbrook was hitting those shots or not.

And yes, I am aware of the arguing on the sidelines that happened during the Thunder's win at Memphis in the team's third game of the season. But guess what? Westbrook was polishing off an 0-for-13-er on the night. Who wouldn't be pissed off during and after a game like that? And now, after Westbrook made several big plays down the stretch against Dallas and Durant hit a game-winning buzzer-beater, while half of Twitter was celebrating the shot, the other half could only find time to comment on the "half-hearted" hug the two players shared afterward in celebration. Get a life.

Maybe Westbrook isn't as happy as he could possibly be in Oklahoma City. But I'm not buying into some seething hatred he holds for Kevin Durant. The guys have grown up in the NBA together. They've shared immense amount of success at a young age by feeding off each other. Together. Whether or not Scott Brooks blames one for the team's failures is moot. That might represent a problem in the coach-player relationship, but the not the one between teammates.

And beyond all that, we shouldn't be worried about Westbrook leaving until at least after this season is done. The Thunder are one of four teams I would say have a legitimate shot at a championship this season (Heat, Bulls and Lakers are the other three. Really, the Lakers would need a full 58 games of good play from Andrew Bynum to be legit. That remains to be seen). Westbrook would be crazy to leave before this season is done. Even if he wants to be the alpha dog, or play in a bigger market, there is no place he could go that would give him a better title shot that OKC this year. So there's not point until after the season.

At any rate, it would be great if we could stop hearing about the discontent on the Thunder's sideline and in the locker room. I'm not buying it, and doesn't their play so far (especially KD's shot last night) deserve a bit more airtime?