Wednesday, November 30, 2011

A Word of Warning to Thad and the Buckeye Faithful



Last night Ohio State absolutely destroyed Duke in basketball. Duke played so poorly that Coach K gave up on his starters and opted to play Quinn Cook, Josh Hairston and Michael Gbinije for essentially the entire second half. But make no mistake about that; Ohio State looked good. Unfortunately, it's not going to last.

In fact, Ohio State probably just played its best game of the season. Remember last year, when Wisconsin (at that point the second best team in the Big 10) visited OSU and got romped by 30, as Jon Diebler and crew banged home three-ball after three-ball after three-ball? Gus Johnson was absolutely beside himself. Well, that type of performance had not happened for the Buckeyes up to that point in the season, and they never repeated it. Despite hitting 312 threes and scoring 93 points against Wisconsin (I know that doesn't seem like it adds up, but you're just going to have to take my word for it), OSU struggled shooting in its final game of the season, losing 62-60 to Kentucky in the Sweet 16.

What's the point here? That the game against Wisconsin was an anomaly, even amid the incredible season Ohio State had last year. So was last night's game against Duke. Last night, William Buford shot the worst percentage of any Ohio State player to see the floor (not surprising). He went 8-15. Everyone else was better than that. Sorry, that's not happening again. DeShaun Thomas will not go 8-12 more than one more time this season. The performance, while impressive, is simply not sustainable.

And I'm not just hating because it was Duke that Ohio State beat and I'm mad about it (I am). I've seen the same type of scenario play out at Duke before. I know it can't last. In the 2005-06 season, Duke had one of its greatest regular seasons since I've been alive. Led by J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams, Duke went into the NCAA Tournament with 30-3 record and had been unbelievable to watch all year. They had the national player of the year in Redick (averaging 26.8 points per game that year) and the best center in the country in Williams (first team All-American, 18.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 3.8 bpg). Around those guys Duke had a bunch of role players who contributed enough on offense and weren't liabilities on defense, so Duke kept winning. If you think about it, that is essentially Ohio State's makeup this year, with them having maybe three big offensive threats (definitely Sullinger and Buford, maybe Craft) and then good rl players. In 05-06, Duke was tearing people apart to start the year, but none of them was like the 97-66 thrashing Duke administered to Texas (ranked No. 2 in the nation at the time) in its ninth game of the season (this was OSU's seventh). I can still remember watching that game and thinking, "Duke is unreal. How are they ever going to lose?" But you know what? They did lose that season. And they never quite looked the same as they did against Texas. Because that was just one of those games where everything was falling. Redick was pulling up in transition from 30 feet away and hitting any shot he took. Williams was unstoppable inside on both ends of the court. It just wasn't the way anyone could possibly play for 35-or-so games in a row.

Here's where the similarities between that Duke team and this Ohio State one get scary. During last night's telecast, Dan Shulman made mention of the fact that with about seven minutes to play, Craft and Buford had not come out of the game, and Sullinger had sat for just a minute. Head coach Thad Matta had only used seven players up to that point. In 05-06, Redick averaged 37 minutes per game and Williams 33 (this number would have been higher if not for Williams' bad habit of getting into foul trouble). Basically, those guys were out there all the time. And by the end of the year? They were worn out. Plain and simple. Redick worked harder than any player I've ever seen to get open. His motor never stopped. by the end of the season though, he didn't have the legs to drain the threes like before. Williams' body had taken a beating for an entire season inside the paint, and it wasn't in the same shape it was months before. That year, Duke had just seven players average more than six minutes a game (sound familiar?). The result was a phenomenal regular season, a 1-1 record against North Carolina, an ACC Tournament Championship, and then a 62-54 loss in the Sweet 16 to Tyrus Thomas, Glen Davis and an energetic LSU team. Duke had completely run out of gas. Those 54 points were the team's lowest offensive output of the season by 10.

There was nothing left in the tank for Duke in 05-06. With the way Aaron Craft never stops hustling, the way Jared Sullinger takes a beating on the interior, and the way William Buford is running around on offense, getting open or creating his own shot, the same will happen to them. The Buckeyes looked as good as a college team can Tuesday night, but if Thad Matta doesn't start giving them some breathers, it will all come to a screeching halt.

No comments:

Post a Comment