Experiment in Statistics, Week 1

I mentioned in an earlier post that I would be keeping track of my own new statistic in an attempt to see if it will be indicative of the of the way the standings play out.  My statistic doesn't have a finalized name yet because I am trying to come up with a cool name like established baseball stats such as WHIP or VORP.  The statistic measures a team's offensive efficiency by seeing what percentage of baserunners a team is able to bring home and score.  To measure it, I took every method of getting on base--hits, walks, hit by pitch, intentional walks, and errors the other team committed, and put the number of runs they scored over that.  The result is a number similar to batting average indicating how many runs a team scores per man that gets on base.  For example, if a team has had 100 players get on base this season, and they have scored 30 runs, then their Runs per man on base (RMOB?) number would be .300.  That means that for every man a team gets on base, they score three tenths of a run, or for every 10 runners a team gets on base, they score 3 runs.  With the method of the stat being explained, I am open to cool acronym ideas for the stat, and open to better ways of expressing the number than the .300 variety.  If you would like to see how many men on base a team requires to score each run, I can attempt to play that out.  Love to hear the suggestions.  That being said, here are the results of the season so far. (RMOB as of Thursday April 23)

AL Team RMOB NL Team RMOB

1. Texas Rangers .458 1. St. Louis Cardinals .384

2. Detroit Tigers .388 2. Florida Marlins .382

3. Cleveland Indians .384 3. Philadelphia Phillies .381

4. Toronto Blue Jays .383 4. Colorado Rockies .375

5. Baltimore Orioles .376 5. LA Dodgers .366

6. New York Yankees .373 6. Pittsburgh Pirates .350

7. Seattle Mariners .366 7. San Diego Padres .344

8. Boston Red Sox .365 8. Milwaukee Brewers .328

9. Chicago White Sox .358 9. Chicago Cubs .320

10. LA Angels .347 10. Atlanta Braves .319

11. Minnesota Twins .341 11. Cincinnatti Reds .317

12. Tampa Bay Rays .339 12. Arizona DBacks .308

13. Kansas City Royals .321 13. New York Mets .301

14. Oakland Athletics .306 14. San Fran Giants .291

15. Washington Nationals .290

16. Houston Astros .263

Observations:  largely, the runs scored per man on base statistic is pretty accurate in showing how successful a team is.  The top teams in the NL, the Cardinals and Marlins, are both atop their divisions.  The Dodgers, Padres, Pirates and Phillies also are in the top half of the NL in RMOB, and are off to pretty good starts.  The only team that is doing well so far that doesn't have a high RMOB in the NL is the Cincinnatti Reds.  They are 9-6, but boast an RMOB of only.317.  Their pitching has been good, but I think the Reds have won several ugly games, and that is partially why they are so low in the rankings.

In the AL it is not quite as accurate, but still not bad.  The Blue Jays, Mariners, Yankees and Red Sox boast the best four records in the AL, and they all occupy spots in the top 8 of the league.  The Athletics, Rays and Twins are near the bottom in both the division standings and the RMOB rankings. 

The main anomalies that stick out are the Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians and the Colorado Rockies.  The Rangers are scoring almost half the time they get a man on base, which is absurd, but they are not doing well on the season, only 6-9.  Similar to last year, the Rangers seem to be extremely entertaining offensively, but cannot get it done with pitching or fielding, so they are not very successful yet.  The Indians RMOB is near the top of the entire MLB at .384, but they had one game in which they scored 22 runs, a number that would seem to skew the statistic with such a small sample size so far.  The Rockies also have a pretty high RMOB at .375, despite being only 5-9.  They have just been very efficient, but not scored many runs.  They have only gotten 176 men on base as of April 23, good for 3rd worst in the NL.  While they have been efficient, it has only resulted in 66 runs, which has not been good enough to result in wins.

All in all, I am encouraged by the results of the experiment so far, and I hope they continue to be accurate as the season progresses